Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

we still playing geno Smith with the groin injury?

[Broncofan]

28 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

we still playing geno Smith with the groin injury?

More importantly KW3 & Charbonnet returned to practice.   So no, with FD allowing straight cash outs voiding both SEA plays.  

Edited December 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Hunter henry to score live, +750 with the FD 25% live bet boost. They are letting zappe sling it a bit, and juju/Henry are the only "reliable" targets

[Broncofan]

15 minutes ago, adamq said:

Hunter henry to score live, +750 with the FD 25% live bet boost. They are letting zappe sling it a bit, and juju/Henry are the only "reliable" targets

Nice call lol.  
 

He’s a little gimpy.   Pharoah Brown is +1600 live.  Why not lol.  Half-stake.  

[Broncofan]

Well, that was a FUGLY game.....the 4 TD props weren't close (Hunter Henry was an excellent call, tip my cap).   0-4, -2U.   Mitch Trubisky really was THAT awful....player props were 1-1, -3U - but it looked like a 0-fer and -7U night, so I'll take the Diontae Johnson props hitting in the last 10 secs of the game.   -5U for tonight, let's regroup and get it back & more on Sunday!

 

WEEK 14 TNF

ATS/ML: 28-31-2, -0.8U (WK 14 TNF - nil)

PLAYER PROPS: 116-107, +110.8U  (WK 14 TNF - 1-1, -3U)

LONGSHOT TD: 25-183 - +14.6U  (WK 14 TNF - 0-4, -2U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400)

TOTAL - +124.6U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; Wk14 TNF - -5U;  930U stake so far)

[Broncofan]

So with the SEA TD props coming down, alt lines have been filled for all but the DET-CHI (Gibbs) & the SEA-SF (DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel & *new* George Kittle props)...and a couple more player props and TD props to add:

SUNDAY PLAYER PROP ADDITIONS

EARLY

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Tanner Hudson O23.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +250, 60+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK vs. IND - the weather forecast is clearing up nicely, Browning and he have chemistry, and the IND gives up the 7th most yards to TE, with just under 60 yards a game.  Obviously Hudson isn't the only guy on the team, but he's the primary pass receiver, so a total in the low 20's, too good to pass up the full alt line play.

LATE

NEW ADDED THU PM - George Kittle O49.5 rec yds 2U, alt lines pending DK (will go 70/90 range) vs. SEA - I know he was quiet last time, but I think with the SEA crowd noise, pass pro was more important.  At home, the SEA TE D is so vulnerable, the last game against SEA is likely what is keeping this # down, have to attack it

SNF

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Dallas Goedert O34.5 rec yds 2U, 49+ rec yds +210 1U & 66+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ DAL - he's been sorely missed by the PHI O as the 2nd/3rd target in the middle, and this # is likely 8-10 yards higher if he's playing regularly.   Broken arm return has little to no impact / delay, so have to go full alt lines here.

 

MNF

Jayden Reed has dropped from 41.5 to 38.5 (wow), and Jordan Love has dropped from 226.5 to 223.5.   I didn't get a chance to take it b4, but I won't complain.

 

SUNDAY LONGSHOT TD ADDITIONS

Again - Kenny Mcintosh & Geno Smith FD TD plays have been voided, with the 2 main RB's back in practice.

EARLY

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Jeremy Ruckert +1700 / +25000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK vs HOU - same reasoning as Conklin, willing to cover my bases since TE literally is those 2, at those odds.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Brevin Jordan +500 / +7500 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U @ NYJ  -  even with the bad weather, this is just too good to pass up.   He's literally +300 or less everywhere else that has odds, and it's warranted.   WIth the NYJ CB's is how you attack them - 7 TE"s have scored.  Full-stake play.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Will Mallory +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CIN - Who?  He's the latest in the pass-catching move TE's IND keeps throwing out there.   Even though his snap share is very low, his target share when he's out is highest among TE's on the team.   This may be a week too soon, but against the CIN pass D, I'd rather take the chance now than see him score against a known bottom 5 TE D.   

 

LATE

 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Noah Gray +800 / +10000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK vs. BUF - I'm not even sure I need to justify it any further than in prior weeks, but BUF's safeties are definitely a weak spot to attack, and if they pay too much attention to Kelce, we've seen how Gray capitalizes.   

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Brandon Powell +1400 FD / ??? 2+  0.4U / 0.1U- this one is wild and unexpected; he's +700 / +8000 2+ on DK and he's +450 / +7000 2+ on Bodog.   TheScore usually comes out later with 2+ TD props, and I suspect it will be more than +10000, have to take this kind of value when you factor in how poorly KJ Osborn has been playing (and Powell has outproduced and out-targeted him over & over again). 

 

Those additions make it 35U in 10 player props (only Jahmyr Gibbs, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel & George Kittle are missing their alt line totals), and 7U in 12 TD plays for Sunday.   That's enough for now - the card's updated on page 34 in full, link below.   Let's see if we can get Week 14 back on track after a tough (but fortunate I wasn't skunked 0-fer) TNF!

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

11 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Now at 48.5, that’s more like it. 

Kind of a rough night overall, but at least this was a no sweat.

[Broncofan]

A couple of plays to add...

SNF PLAYER PROPS

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Dallas Goedert O34.5 rec yds 2U, 49+ rec yds +210 1U & 66+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ DAL - he's been sorely missed by the PHI O as the 2nd/3rd target in the middle, and this # is likely 8-10 yards higher if he's playing regularly.   Broken arm return has little to no impact / delay, so have to go full alt lines here.

 

SUN EARLY LONGSHOT TD

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Trenton Irwin +1400 / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog vs. IND - with the weather forecast improving, this is worth a play with Tyler Boyd added to the injury report, and Irwin getting about 25 percent snap share even with the big 3 back.    He only runs 25% routes in the slot, which is crucial, because he avoids the all-world slot CB Kenny Moore as well.   Worth the half-unit play, if Boyd is out his odds would drop to +400 or less, but he has standalone value at that #.

So that's 46U for the Sunday card...probably enough for now lol.

Edited December 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[Ray Reed]

I like Rams +7.5 in what will be a gross weather game in Baltimore Sunday. I can see a 20-16 type of game.

[thebestever6]

if George Pickens got over 25 yards last night I would of hit a parlay for 84units fudge.

[Broncofan]

Added Justin Jefferson o64.5 rec yds 2U, 86+ rec yds +210 1U, 108+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ LV - this number will be in the low 80’s next week.    I get it, normally I wait a week and be sure he's ok.   Except here we know he practiced fully for 2+ weeks with bye and they were being super cautious.   We won't see this low a number again.

[thebestever6]

I may put Clyde Edward's helaire rushing in a parlay I like the over 52.5 not enough to straight bet it though.  He's been waiting for this opportunity. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Almost a 3-0 prop night for me last night. 

Had Zeke O58.5 Rushing (volume play), Zeke O18.5 Receiving (just screamed low), & Trubisky U187.5 Passing. 

 

Imagine how good I felt when the Patriots had the ball, Zeke seemingly had the 1st down to ice the game.....then that spot gets reviewed, overturned, Steelers get the ball back with 15 seconds & Trubisky gets 45 yards to lose the prop by 3 yards lol. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[Broncofan]

21 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

we still playing geno Smith with the groin injury?

 

21 hours ago, Broncofan said:

More importantly KW3 & Charbonnet returned to practice.   So no, with FD allowing straight cash outs voiding both SEA plays.  

The fact SEA - SF didn't offer alt lines turns out to be a blessing - with news that Geno is a GTD, if you haven't taken DK Metcalf, don't take it.  I'm going to take the 0.2U loss being offered, and factor it in my Week 14 totals.  

I will take Deebo & Kittle alt lines though, but taking any SEA plays is iffy now.   That's the downside to taking plays early - sometimes you get snakebit.   Gabe Davis went from 40.5 rec yds to 39.5 rec yds & Jerry Jeudy went from 45.5 rec yds to 44.5 rec yds too(oh well).

On the other hand look at some of these props (and their alt lines value gaps are even a lot wider):

-Chuba Hubbard has gone from 47.5 rush yds to 56.5 (lol wow)

-Justin Jefferson has gone from 64.5 rec to 69.5 (lol wow)

-Jahmyr Gibbs 25.5 rec yds is now 28.5 

-Drake London 45.5 rec yds is now 46.5

-Jason Ferguson 41.5 rec ys is now 43.5

-SF rec props are now off the board 

 

TD-wise:

-Hunter Long +2000 is now +600 on DK (Tyler Higbee confirmed doubtful)

-Brevin Jordan +500 is now +300 on Bodog (Dalton Schultz confirmed out)

-Stephen Sullivan +1900 is now +1200 on DK (Tremble still +800 - Hayden Hurst confirmed out)

Obv none of those guys are guaranteed to hit, but their path is a lot better, and those odds are just ridiculous.   So still a really good CLV week - hopefully we can translate that to actual $$.   BOL!

 

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[stl4life07]

Anyone on here really good at First TD scoring? I havent looked into that market but Id love to try it if anyone has a read on it on Sunday Id definitely tail lol.