Weekly Bets Thread

[11sanchez11]

Took a AFCN ML parlay. BAL, CLE & CIN. Was + 270

[adamq]

5 hours ago, adamq said:

Some last minute td plays to consider

 

Trey Palmer 550 FD /7000 DK

Clear wr3, looks like a good spot for Otton but I like what I've seen from Palmer

 

McKinnon +230/+2000 FD

CEH is a trash can. Next

 

Tim Jones +1700 FD

Just looks like value to me compared to Parker Washington at +600

Hmmmm so the evidence suggests CEH will have a monster game

[SmittyBacall]

Great start to the Sunday. Let’s keep it rolling.

[SmittyBacall]

@Broncofan Jeudy killing us. Gotta reel one in.

[thebestever6]

All the times we played Colby Parkinson and he gets it the one week we don't play him .

[Broncofan]

Before I do the Sunday tally, my SNF card:

WEEK 14 SNF

PLAYER PROPS

Jake Ferguson O41.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 43.5), 57+ rec yds +210 1U, 75+ rec yds +500 0.5U (2nd set alt lines back for big games) vs. PHI - PHI's TE D is so leaky, even with Darius Leonard in the fold, I don't see it fixing itself with Ceedee Lamb drawing the attention (when Ferguson eats).   

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Dallas Goedert O34.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - same), 49+ rec yds +210 1U & 66+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ DAL - he's been sorely missed by the PHI O as the 2nd/3rd target in the middle, and this # is likely 8-10 yards higher if he's playing regularly.   Broken arm return has little to no impact / delay, so have to go full alt lines here.

NEW ADDED SUN PM - Brandin Cooks O45.5 rec yds 2U, 63+ rec yds +210 1U & 83+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. PHI - not much to add to Goedert, going after the PHI secondary is the way to go.

 

LONGSHOT TD

Peyton Hendershot +1100 / +11000 2+  &  Luke Schoonmaker +800 / +10000 2+ both 0.4U / 0.1U DK vs. PHI - PHI's vulnerable to the TE, but Ferguson is +180, so going with the 12 formation play-action call here.

Quez Watkins +900 / +11000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK @ DAL - he's their true WR3 and he's back, and their burner as well - and that's how you can beat DAL's secondary, so worth the half-stake play.

 

So that's 12U for SNF, more than enough....hope we can end Sunday strong!

Edited December 11, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan Jeudy killing us. Gotta reel one in.

 

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

All the times we played Colby Parkinson and he gets it the one week we don't play him .

Jeudy literally gave away 60+ yards.....Russ should have led for the TD on the 1st throw...but man.  That's literally a 7U swing.    Enough is enough, he gets open so much, but wait until we have a different QB, or he's on a different team.   Like Dotson when Curtis Samuel plays, just gotta know when to call it a day lol

I can't really lose any sleep on Parkinson.   The same read that led me to void DK Metcalf plays, Geno Smith TD (which would have voided) and then Kenny Mcintosh was the same read that said don't take a SEA TD prop.   So sure it hurts a little, but then I'd have been -3.5U on Metcalf and down with Mcintosh, and at half-stake it would pretty much be a wash. 

 

[JonStark]

Feel like I did pretty good with props (mostly thanks for @Broncofan), but that Chiefs game was a $200 swing. Still up but not much going into SNF.

Damn you Toney. 

[Broncofan]

On 12/6/2023 at 4:43 PM, Broncofan said:

OK, we have early Sunday releases from DK, and there about 6-7 plays that I really do like right away, and I expect they will increase, so getting in early....

WEEK 14 SUNDAY SLATE

ATS/ML (ADDED SUN AM)

CAR ML +240 @ NO 2U -  I could regret this one, but reality is that NO can't stop the run nearly as well, no Marshawn Lattimore, and Derek Carr playing IMO is not a plus, given that he's so limited.   No Taysom (who is JAG IMO, but the dual threat running helps over Carr), and literally only Chris Olave & Juwan Johnson are the starting receivers/TE's.     If there's ever a game that's really a toss up so it's this one so give me the +240 ML odds.

CLE ML vs JAX pick 'em - with T-Law starting, the line has come down to a pick 'em - but IMO that's too far in bad weather, with the CLE pass D and pass rush.   They should make life miserable for T-Law, and on the flip side, the Jags can't cover anyone (great vs. the run).   

MIN - 3 @ LV - the one fly in the ointment is Josh Dobbs' TO vulnerability.   But even if MIN loses the TO battle -1, they'd still cover IMO.    JJ's return, Brian Flores exploiting a rookie QB, LV often being friendly to road teams (lot of road trip fans make these games)

SEA - SF U47 - I know SEA's pass game was prolific vs. DAL, but that was with Geno Smith.   With an intra-divisional game, I like the chances the teams know each other well, and we get a few more FG's than TD's this week. 

BUF ML +110 @ KC - as long as it doesn't go to OT, I like BUF here (lol that's a joke).    Josh Allen has rebounded in a massive way, and no Pacheco is a huge loss for KC, along with more OL injuries.   

GB / NYG O36.5 - GB's D isn't elite, and they'll be facing Saquon Barkley.   The GB OL is great at pass pro, and if you neuter the pass rush for Wink Martindale, you expose the DB's.   This feels at least 4+ pts too low TBH, given the weather is OK.   If the other 5-legs hit, this also allows me to hedge this out. 

That's 7U in play, and my free 0.2U bet credit boost is going here, for the 0.2U  +14000 6-leg parley as well.   BOL!

 

 

PLAYER PROPS
 

EARLY

Jahmyr Gibbs O25.5 rec yds 2U FD  (FRI PM - now 28.5), 50+ rec yds +280 DK 1U, 70+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK @ CHI  - I don't think DET will be trailing all game long like on Turkey Day - but the DET D will keep CHI in it.  And that means the DET O is firing on all cylinders.  Here's the thing - CHI's a really good run D now, post Sweat-acquisition - but they're the still the #32 pass D vs. RB's.  I have to attack the RB pass game here, so that's an easy call with Gibbs, who went for 50+ on them last time (albeit in full catchup script).   I think OC Ben Johnson realizes how best to exploit CHI's D, so I'm definitely going all the way up to 60+ rec yards for Gibbs this week.

Drake London O45.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 46.5), 70+ rec yds +300 1U, 90+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK vs. TAM - yes I get it, Desmon Ridder sucks.  But the TAM rush D is legit, while their pass D is so leaky - remember, they gave up 70 yds to Jonathan Mingo last week, and they gave up 6-54 to London last time, with Jamel Dean and both pass coverage ILB's around.  They're not likely back, so I have to go with the full alt line here...and just cross my fingers Ridder doesn't have a 30th percentile game for him.

Chuba Hubbard o47.5 rush yds 2U (FRI PM - now 56.5), 70+ rush yds +250 1U & 90+ rush yds +600 0.5U DK @ NO - Saints rush D way leakier of late.  New coaching staff def commits to run.  In fact O12.5 rushes pretty solid too.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Tanner Hudson O23.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - same), 40+ rec yds +250, 60+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK vs. IND - the weather forecast is clearing up nicely, Browning and he have chemistry, and the IND gives up the 7th most yards to TE, with just under 60 yards a game.  Obviously Hudson isn't the only guy on the team, but he's the primary pass receiver, so a total in the low 20's, too good to pass up the full alt line play.

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Brevin Jordan O23.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +240 1U, 60+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK @ NYJ - yes, the weather's going to be bad.   But with the NYJ CB's, the TE is always in a huge funnel spot, giving up 45+ yards a game to TE's.   Plus, if the weather's bad - the short pass game is what gets emphasized, and that's again Brevin Jordan.  With no Dalton Schultz, have to go with the full alt lines.

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Amari Cooper O45.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ rec yds +280 1U, 100+ rec yds +900 0.5U vs. JAX - another case where JAX's top 5 run D, combined with very poor perimeter coverage, makes Cooper a great play.   Joe Flacco was targeting him on almost 40 percent of the throws before Cooper left, and the JAX pass D has given up the most yards to perimeter WR's in the last 6 games, so with this low a number, have to attack this.
 

LATE

Gabe Davis O40.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - same), 56+ rec yds +210 1U, 75+ rec yds +500 0.5U (2nd set alt lines back for big games) DK @ KC - this isn't just calling back to the playoff game.    It's how you beat KC's pass D, it's in intermediate - deep throws.   That's Davis, so at that number, pretty easy to back the 2nd set of alt lines (big marquee games are getting both X+ and 2nd set of alt lines, nice value).

Jerry Jeudy O45.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - 43.5), 60+ rec yds +210 1U, 80+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ LAC - Jeudy's line would have been MASSIVE last week, if Russell Wilson looked his way.  The furor over the missed Jeudy yards IMO will have Payton & co. looking his way a lot more vs. the leaky LAC pass D.     Such a low #, easy to attack 70+ & 90+ rec yds when it's posted. 

~~NEW FRI PM - VOID - DK Metcalf O60.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (will go 80/100) @ SF - I know that SF stifled him 2 weeks ago.   But SEA O found their identity with KW3 and Zach Charbonnet out - it's for for Geno Smith to go Jameis Winston mode.   .  EDIT FRI PM - with Geno Smith a GTD, can't risk this - taking the 0.2U loss on the main line cashout, a blessing alt lines weren't offered yet, no alt lines obv.

Deebo Samuel O47.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 52.5), 68+ rec yds +210 1U, 89+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. SEA - SEA stays in enough zone, and not exclusive man coverage, we know that Deebo eats there.    If the early slate goes well, I'll definitely be tempted to add Kittle (he was super quiet last TNF because they kept him in to block, it wasn't SEA's coverage).

NEW ADDED THU PM - George Kittle O49.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 50.5), 67+ rec yds+ 210 1U, 86+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. SEA - I know he was quiet last time, but I think with the SEA crowd noise, pass pro was more important.  At home, the SEA TE D is so vulnerable, the last game against SEA is likely what is keeping this # down, have to attack it. 

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Justin Jefferson o64.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 70.5), 86+ rec yds +210 1U, 108+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ LV - this number will be in the low 80’s next week.    I get it, normally I wait a week and be sure he's ok.   Except here we know he practiced fully for 2+ weeks with bye and they were being super cautious.   We won't see this low a number again.

 

SNF

Jake Ferguson O41.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 43.5), 57+ rec yds +210 1U, 75+ rec yds +500 0.5U (2nd set alt lines back for big games) vs. PHI - PHI's TE D is so leaky, even with Darius Leonard in the fold, I don't see it fixing itself with Ceedee Lamb drawing the attention (when Ferguson eats).   

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Dallas Goedert O34.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - same), 49+ rec yds +210 1U & 66+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ DAL - he's been sorely missed by the PHI O as the 2nd/3rd target in the middle, and this # is likely 8-10 yards higher if he's playing regularly.   Broken arm return has little to no impact / delay, so have to go full alt lines here.

 

MNF

NEW ADDED THU AM - Jordan Love O223.5 passing yds 2U (if you have alt lines, consider 250/275) @ NYG - just way too low.   The GB attack is through the air, and if the line can protect, Wink Martindale's D can be had (if it can't protect, big problems - see WAS games).

NEW ADDED THU AM - Jayden Reed O38.5 rec yds 2U, 55+ rec yds +210 1U & 73+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ NYG - with Christian Watson out, I expect the other 3 WR's to eat.   With slot CB being more vulnerable, this is a smash spot for Reed.  I'll be going full alt lines once they're out.   Likely taking Dontayvion Wicks given his prop isn't out, I expect it's going to be lower than either Reed or Doubs (also at 41.5).

So that's 45.5U in 13 plays for Sunday. 

 

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

NEW ADDED THU AM - Stephen Sullivan +1900 / +20000 2+ 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & Tommy Tremble +800 / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U  & Mike Strachan +1400 TheScore (+950 DK, no FD yet) / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ NO - NO's TE D is awful, having given up 7 TD's.    Tommy Tremble still isn't practicing, if he is out, then Sullivan is the lone pass-catching TE (Ian Thomas blocks, and can't catch the ball <see the 2 screens they threw his way last week lol>).   Strachan is the big body WR that can act as a proxy TE2.   With no Marshawn Lattimore playing, it's scary to put 2 CAR plays, but the opportunity should be there.   If you want to wait for Tremble to be ruled out, Sullivan's odds will crater, but you can go 0.4U/0.1U now, and be ready to double it if Tremble is out.   EDIT THU PM:  Tremble has practiced for 2nd straight day, so I'm going to split the TE's into 2 0.4U / 0.1U plays with both Tremble & Sullivan, and keep Strachan as well.

 NEW ADDED THU AM - Khadarel Hodge +1100 FD (+900 DK) / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. TAM - he's the 3rd WR, and mostly an afterthought - but against TAM's pass D, taking a longshot WR play with any type of usage is still decent.   Desmond Ridder and not having a full snap count are why it's only a half-stake play.

NEW ADDED THU AM - Tyler Conklin +700 FD (no DK / Bodog odds) / +11000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. HOU - Conklin's getting the larger share of work again, and as crazy as it sounds, with Zach Wilson back at QB, he has a better shot to score.  The horrible weather risk is why I'm staying away from his yardage props, but at this total, have to take the TD shot.   I'm waiting to see what Jeremy Ruckert comes in at (he's +1000 on FD, would need to be better than +1200 to consider, but I think that might happen with DK / Bodog).  

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Jeremy Ruckert +1700 / +25000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK vs HOU - same reasoning as Conklin, willing to cover my bases since TE literally is those 2, at those odds.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Brevin Jordan +500 / +7500 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U @ NYJ  -  even with the bad weather, this is just too good to pass up.   He's literally +300 or less everywhere else that has odds, and it's warranted.   WIth the NYJ CB's is how you attack them - 7 TE"s have scored.  Full-stake play.

NEW ADDED THU AM - Hunter Long +2000 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. BAL -  Tyler Higbee is not in the concussion protocol, he's got a neck stinger.  Thing is, he was still a DNP yesterday.   Even if he plays, Long rotates in on 12 formation, and is the better blocker.    The BAL D is formidable, but if they get close, Long does play (in fact, the Demarcus Robinson TD, it was Long that was the first read).   At +2000, have to take the half-stake play.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Will Mallory +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CIN - Who?  He's the latest in the pass-catching move TE's IND keeps throwing out there.   Even though his snap share is very low, his target share when he's out is highest among TE's on the team.   This may be a week too soon, but against the CIN pass D, I'd rather take the chance now than see him score against a known bottom 5 TE D.   

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Trenton Irwin +1400 (+1100 DK/FD) / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog vs. IND - with the weather forecast improving, this is worth a play with Tyler Boyd added to the injury report, and Irwin getting about 25 percent snap share even with the big 3 back.    He only runs 25% routes in the slot, which is crucial, because he avoids the all-world slot CB Kenny Moore as well.   Worth the half-unit play, if Boyd is out his odds would drop to +400 or less, but he has standalone value at that #.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Harrison Bryant +900 The Score (+850 DK) / +12000 2-TD DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs JAX - should have 2-TD on DK out tonight/tomorrow.   It's clear the Browns look Bryant's way in the RZ, at those #'s it's an auto-play.

 

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Zach Wilson +1000 FD (+800 DK) / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. HOU - fun fact, no RB has carried the ball inside the 5-yard line for NYJ this year.   Given it's Zach redemption day, let's play the long odds on a rushing TD for him.  

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Juwan Johnson +400  / +4500 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U vs. CAR -  with so many ppl out I have to go back to the Juwan well.   Having Carr instead of Jameis, but with no MT, no Taysom, and no Shaheed, they've got to use Juwan in the RZ at the very least....well, anyone with a brain (which does not include OC Pete Carmichael) - but I'll absolutely kick myself if I don't take the widest path to TD opportunity this year for their biggest mismatch.   

 

LATE 

NEW FRI AM - VOID - Kenny McIntosh +900 FD (no DK / Bodog odds) / ??? 2-TD 0.4U / 0.1U @ SF - Pete Carroll could absolutely screw this play up.   But McIntosh is very likely the only backup RB on the active roster right, and it's freaking DJ Dallas who's the starter.   You can't pass up +900 on a backup RB who's likely to see 3rd down pass work and 2-min drill work, even against the SF D.   EDIT FRI AM - with news that both Charbonnet & KW3 are back, with FD allowing it, voding both McIntosh & Geno.

NEW ADDED THU AM - Geno Smith +800 FD (no DK / Bodog odds - wait??) / +14000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U - it sucks that Geno scored last week, because he's been +1000 or better for a while now - but +800 is still value when DJ Dallas & Kenny McIntosh are your best options.  If they get an end-zone DPI, get tackled at the 1, or Geno is avoiding the pass rush in the RZ, a rush TD is definitely in play.   Geno doesn't normally look to run, but with the RB situation, this is far more in play than most weeks, and at +800, have to take the shot. EDIT FRI AM - with news that both Charbonnet & KW3 are back, with FD allowing it, voding both McIntosh & Geno.

NEW ADDED THU PM - Donald Parham +550 / +6000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK vs. DEN - ppl know Parham still gets designed looks near the EZ, and DEN's D is super vulnerable.    Worth the full-stake play, esp since FD/Bodog/Score all have him at +400 or less.    Given the discrepancy, I don't think this line is staying this high (nor the great 2-TD line, although Bodog has it as well even with +400 1-TD), so I'd take it now if you're in, don't wait around.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Jaleel McLaughlin +800 / +11000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK @ LAC** - Samaji Perine is so iffy to play that the Broncos activated a PS RB today.  That makes Mclaughlin an auto-play as he gets all of Perine's work and the change-of-pace for Javonte Williams, but is getting 3rd RB odds.

 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Noah Gray +800 / +10000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK vs. BUF - I'm not even sure I need to justify it any further than in prior weeks, but BUF's safeties are definitely a weak spot to attack, and if they pay too much attention to Kelce, we've seen how Gray capitalizes.   

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Brandon Powell +1400 FD / ??? 2+  0.4U / 0.1U- this one is wild and unexpected; he's +700 / +8000 2+ on DK and he's +450 / +7000 2+ on Bodog.   TheScore usually comes out later with 2+ TD props, and I suspect it will be more than +10000, have to take this kind of value when you factor in how poorly KJ Osborn has been playing (and Powell has outproduced and out-targeted him over & over again). 

 

SNF

Nothing so far.

 

MNF

NEW ADDED THU PM Lawrence Cager +3000 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & Daniel Bellinger +700 DK / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. GB - I get it, Cager only gets on the field 25-30% of the time.  Bellinger only gets 3-4 targets as the #1 guy.     NYG is throwing less to the TE's....but here's the thing.   GB's safeties are terrible, and we've seen TE's eat.   And so you're telling me I can get +700 on the starter AND get +3000 on the 2nd guy?   Darren Waller's IR window hasn't even opened up yet, so there's no news coming that justifies these kind of odds.   FD isn't out yet, but Cager is +1200 on TheScore & Bodog.    Bellinger is +600 to +650 at other books, which is totally playable.
 

So that's 10U in 16 Sunday plays so far.    NGL, I never would have envisioned 16 TD plays, but the weather being a lot better, and injury-related opps, it's creating openings that aren't there every week. 

That's enough for now with 62.5U on Sunday's slate (big gulp - for bankroll management, you can consider half-sizing everything to get it to 30U+ too), let's get things back on track after TNF.     BOL!

 

WEEK 14 TNF

ATS/ML: 28-31-2, -0.8U (WK 13 - 4-1, +3U)

PLAYER PROPS: 116-107, +110.8U  (WK 14 TNF - 1-1, -3U)

LONGSHOT TD: 25-183 - +14.6U  (WK 14 TNF - 0-4, -2U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400)

TOTAL - +124.6U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; 921U stake so far)

WEEK 14 SUNDAY RECAP

ATS/ML - 3-1-1, +1.1U - MIN not kicking the FG late was a bad break...and OMG CAR (0/5 on 4th down, 3 of them 4th and 1, blocked punt TD) - forget the box score, it was 14-6 until the last 6 mins when CAR got desperate and turned it over inside midfield and then 30 2X and led to 2 easy scores).   But SEA-SF staying under was a good break, while BUF ML & CLE ML were solid calls.  I'll take it.

PLAYER PROPS - 6-5, +10.0U - Jahmyr Gibbs not being thrown the ball 1x in the last 4 drives down 2+ scores was insanely unlucky.   Justin Jefferson was well on his way to beating the O64.5 with 2/27 early in 2Q - but Josh Dobbs literally got him killed.   Those were 2 unfortunate L's.  And man, Jerry Jeudy.....drops literally 60+ yards (and a 1 TD) in 2 plays (Russell Wilson could have thrown it away from sidelines for a walk in TD, but Jeudy owns the drop & not getting 2 feet in).    Literally a 7U swing there.    But to be fair,  Gabe Davis & Tanner Hudson were just bad, bad calls (Hudson came close, but reality was he was in a 3-way timeshare today).   Still, Brevin Jordan was the only winning play that didn't hit the alt lines, everyone else hit at least 1, and Deebo Samuel & Drake London just absolutely smashed theirs, so it makes for a decent 10U day....which was needed, because...

LONGSHOT TD - 0-16, -10.0U - reality was that those 5 super gut-feel plays were just awful.   There was some bad luck, in that Hunter Long was carted off - and then his backup, Davis Allen, scored at the end of the drive.   Ugh @ +2000.   And yes, Tanner Hudson & Colby Parkinson scored (but Tanner Hudson was sub +500 IIRC, and that timeshare was too hard to take, and Drew Lock at QB, it saved me on DK Metcalf props).   Still, it's a goose egg, ugh.

 

So all that work with 60U+ at stake....and it's a +1.1U day, and  -3.9U for the week.   LOL Still, it could have been a lot worse (Kittle hit late, for example).    Let's see if we can get it going for SNF/MNF!

 

WEEK 14 to SNF

ATS/ML: 31-32-1, +0.3U (WK 14 SNF - 3-1-1, +1.1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 116-107, +120.8U  (WK 14 SNF - 7-6, +7U)

LONGSHOT TD: 25-199 - +4.6U  (WK 14 TNF - 0-20, -12U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400)

TOTAL - +125.7U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 SNF - -3.9U 983U stake so far)

Edited December 11, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Well SNF was a dud - 1-2 player props (Cooks had a 10-yard catch taken away even though he caught in and penalty was DPI because it was DPI by facemask, so instead of counting catch and adding 15 yards after catch, they took it away) - 9 yards short (of course).  Goedert goes 3-40, with a 15-yarder taken away by iffy penalty, 5 yards short....sigh.

With no TD props, it's a -4.9U SNF, so we're back to -3.8U for the day, and a -8.8U week........oh well, regroup for MNF and see if we can get the mojo going....

[Broncofan]

WEEK 14 MNF CARD

ATS/ML

GB-NYG O36.5 - covered this before, there's no bad weather, the only way this misses IMO is a QB gets hurt, or some major weirdness in the RZ.   GB's pass O  and pass protection are cooking, and Saquon Barkley should thrive vs. the GB D.  

 

PLAYER PROPS

NEW ADDED THU AM - Jordan Love O223.5 passing yds 2U (if you have alt lines, consider 250/275) @ NYG - just way too low.   The GB attack is through the air, and if the line can protect, Wink Martindale's D can be had (if it can't protect, big problems - see WAS games).

NEW ADDED THU AM - Jayden Reed O38.5 rec yds 2U, 55+ rec yds +210 1U & 73+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ NYG - with Christian Watson out, I expect the other 3 WR's to eat.   With slot CB being more vulnerable, this is a smash spot for Reed.  I'll be going full alt lines once they're out.   Likely taking Dontayvion Wicks given his prop isn't out, I expect it's going to be lower than either Reed or Doubs (also at 41.5).

NEW ADDED SUN PM - Dontavyion Wicks O31.5 rec yds FD 2U, alt lines pending DK (would take 50-range & 70-range, and may even consider the highest alt line for 4U total) @ NYG - Wicks takes over for Christian Watson, and it's not that he becomes the 3rd WR - I believe he's going to soak up the same role.   With Watson playing, he's had a 35-40% snap count playing the boundary position, with 4-5 targets a game (21 over 4 games) - and he's gone 40+ yards in the last 4 games.   He's caught 15 of those 21 targets for 260+ yards.   In the 3 games when Watson wasn't playing in Weeks 1-3, he got EZ targets in each game, even though he was learning on the job as a rookie.  This late in the season, I believe he'll be a co-target hog with Reed & I think Romeo Doubs will remain in the complementary role.   Still, I don't have to be right at this low number, but if I am right, he should smash through the alt lines as well.  

Tyjae Spears O13.5 rec yds 2U, 24+ rec yds +210 1U, 37+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ MIA - with Derrick Henry playing, Spears can return to the 3rd down back and 2-min drill back, and the garbage-time playing-from-way-behind 2H role.   He's gone past 40+ rec yds 2x, and 30+ yards 1x, and gone by this number almost every time that Henry takes the primary role, and TEN is behind.    

 

LONGSHOT TD

NEW ADDED THU PM Lawrence Cager +3000 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & Daniel Bellinger +700 DK / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. GB - I get it, Cager only gets on the field 25-30% of the time.  Bellinger only gets 3-4 targets as the #1 guy.     NYG is throwing less to the TE's....but here's the thing.   GB's safeties are terrible, and we've seen TE's eat.   And so you're telling me I can get +700 on the starter AND get +3000 on the 2nd guy?   Darren Waller's IR window hasn't even opened up yet, so there's no news coming that justifies these kind of odds.   FD isn't out yet, but Cager is +1200 on TheScore & Bodog.    Bellinger is +600 to +650 at other books, which is totally playable.

NEW ADDED MON PM - Dontayvion Wicks +310 / +3100 2+ FD for 1.2U / 0.3U @ NYG - Eye test and mertrics say he’s their best RZ WR tonight (Reed and he should eat otherwise but Reed at half the odds).  

Cedrick Wilson +900 / +13000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK vs. TEN - he's the #3 WR, and if it's a blowout, he's also the guy still playing.   With a 50+ percent snap count, I have to take the stab at those odds.

Will Levis +1400 FD / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ MIA - the TEN O still likes to use the RPO in the RZ, and just like Ryan Tannehill would sometimes keep it, those odds merit a half-stake stab, even if ppl think Derrick Henry gets the rock most times.

 

So that's 1U with ATS/ML, 13U with player props (thinking on 3 alt lines with Wicks), and 3.5U in 4 TD props.   17.5U is a lot for MNF, but it is 2 games, so I've really zeroed in on where I see the biggest edges for the posted #'s.   Let's see if we can turn around Week 14 with a great doubleheader!

Edited December 11, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

wrong thread 

Edited December 11, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Brutal day for Teasers as the Texans (+4) & Eagles (+10.5) really buried me. 

 

Strong day for Props, however: 

Chuba O56.5 Rushing

JFields O27.5 Attempts

Kyren O69.6 Rushing 

CGodwin O4.5 Catches

CGodwin O48.5 Receiving 

NCollins U67.5 Receiving

Stroud U220 Passing

Breece O19.5 Receiving

CSutton O56.5 Receiving

CMC O81.5 Rushing

DeVonta Smith O3.5 Receptions

JHurts O250.5 Passing

TLockett U52.5 Receiving

JAllen O33.5 Rushing - He had 34 & then had to take two kneel downs following the Chiefs failed drive........

ZMoss O69.5 Rushing f

 

That's an 11-4 day for Props, but 0-5 on Teasers. Bleh. 

[Broncofan]

Ok I’m going to trust my instinct and go with Dontayvion Wicks +310 / +3100 2+ FD for 1.2U / 0.3U.    Eye test and mertrics say he’s their best RZ WR tonight (Reed and he should eat otherwise but Reed at half-odds).  

Edited December 11, 2023 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Locked in Flacco to win comeback player of the year at +10000 last night. It has plummeted to +4800. Small wager and its not going to hit, but I wanted the lottery ticket juust in case. 

 

Also took Lamar to win MVP at +800. I think Hurts is out of it, and it comes down to Lamar/Tua/Purdy, depending on how these last 3 games go. Dak is +150 and Purdy +200, FD still has Hurts next to Lamar at +800

 

Myles Garrett to lead the league in sacks +650.. He is two behind the leaders right now, but Garrett is the best in the NFL and plays both Washington and NYJ before the season ends. TJ Watt is always hurt, and Mack has been good in stretches and bad in others.

Edited December 11, 2023 by adamq