Weekly Bets Thread

[stl4life07]

Yesterday was brutal for me. I won one parlay which was Ferguson 25+yards receiving/Lamb 5+ catches/Hurts 25+yards rushing.

I missed a big parlay in the same game bc Lamb failed to get 80+yards receiving (he had 72) and Hurts failed to get 200+yards passing (he had 197). If the game wasnt a blow out or the Eagles didnt have three drives end in a fumble maybe I wouldve gotten it regardless. Lamb also dropped a ball too. So yeah it was brutal.

I missed a ATTD parlay bc Kyren didnt score a TD despite the Rams being at the one yard line and in the redzone a few times. And CMC didnt score a TD despite on the first drive getting the Niners down to the goal line on a big run that took him out of the game and the other running back scored. Again just brutal. 

[N4L]

I absolutely LOVE MIA -13.5. Titans O is going to really struggle to move the ball and sustain drives. Miami O should torch them

I like Waddle over 67 yards - Vrabel wont be dumb and leave 1v1 with Tyreek. They will bracket him and keep a S over the top. Waddle will benefit from that and should see a lot of open space. Big night for him imo

Achane and mostert will both hit their rushing props (57 and 45) 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Man the AFC South was always going to be a sweat for me but now the AFC West and East are both murky after KC/Philly have back to back Ls

[thebestever6]

put a half stake on Hodgins on cesars at +1200 boo ya!!!

[thebestever6]

what a call on Spears played him at 50 yards for .5 !!! +1225

Edited December 12, 2023 by thebestever6

[Broncofan]

On 12/11/2023 at 12:41 AM, Broncofan said:

WEEK 14 MNF CARD

ATS/ML

GB-NYG O36.5 - covered this before, there's no bad weather, the only way this misses IMO is a QB gets hurt, or some major weirdness in the RZ.   GB's pass O  and pass protection are cooking, and Saquon Barkley should thrive vs. the GB D.  

 

PLAYER PROPS

NEW ADDED THU AM - Jordan Love O223.5 passing yds 2U (if you have alt lines, consider 250/275) @ NYG - just way too low.   The GB attack is through the air, and if the line can protect, Wink Martindale's D can be had (if it can't protect, big problems - see WAS games).

NEW ADDED THU AM - Jayden Reed O38.5 rec yds 2U, 55+ rec yds +210 1U & 73+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ NYG - with Christian Watson out, I expect the other 3 WR's to eat.   With slot CB being more vulnerable, this is a smash spot for Reed.  I'll be going full alt lines once they're out.   Likely taking Dontayvion Wicks given his prop isn't out, I expect it's going to be lower than either Reed or Doubs (also at 41.5).

NEW ADDED SUN PM - Dontavyion Wicks O31.5 rec yds FD 2U, alt lines pending DK (would take 50-range & 70-range, and may even consider the highest alt line for 4U total) @ NYG - Wicks takes over for Christian Watson, and it's not that he becomes the 3rd WR - I believe he's going to soak up the same role.   With Watson playing, he's had a 35-40% snap count playing the boundary position, with 4-5 targets a game (21 over 4 games) - and he's gone 40+ yards in the last 4 games.   He's caught 15 of those 21 targets for 260+ yards.   In the 3 games when Watson wasn't playing in Weeks 1-3, he got EZ targets in each game, even though he was learning on the job as a rookie.  This late in the season, I believe he'll be a co-target hog with Reed & I think Romeo Doubs will remain in the complementary role.   Still, I don't have to be right at this low number, but if I am right, he should smash through the alt lines as well.  

Tyjae Spears O13.5 rec yds 2U, 24+ rec yds +210 1U, 37+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ MIA - with Derrick Henry playing, Spears can return to the 3rd down back and 2-min drill back, and the garbage-time playing-from-way-behind 2H role.   He's gone past 40+ rec yds 2x, and 30+ yards 1x, and gone by this number almost every time that Henry takes the primary role, and TEN is behind.    

 

LONGSHOT TD

NEW ADDED THU PM Lawrence Cager +3000 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & Daniel Bellinger +700 DK / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. GB - I get it, Cager only gets on the field 25-30% of the time.  Bellinger only gets 3-4 targets as the #1 guy.     NYG is throwing less to the TE's....but here's the thing.   GB's safeties are terrible, and we've seen TE's eat.   And so you're telling me I can get +700 on the starter AND get +3000 on the 2nd guy?   Darren Waller's IR window hasn't even opened up yet, so there's no news coming that justifies these kind of odds.   FD isn't out yet, but Cager is +1200 on TheScore & Bodog.    Bellinger is +600 to +650 at other books, which is totally playable.

NEW ADDED MON PM - Dontayvion Wicks +310 / +3100 2+ FD for 1.2U / 0.3U @ NYG - Eye test and mertrics say he’s their best RZ WR tonight (Reed and he should eat otherwise but Reed at half the odds).  

Cedrick Wilson +900 / +13000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK vs. TEN - he's the #3 WR, and if it's a blowout, he's also the guy still playing.   With a 50+ percent snap count, I have to take the stab at those odds.

Will Levis +1400 FD / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ MIA - the TEN O still likes to use the RPO in the RZ, and just like Ryan Tannehill would sometimes keep it, those odds merit a half-stake stab, even if ppl think Derrick Henry gets the rock most times.

 

So that's 1U with ATS/ML, 13U with player props (thinking on 3 alt lines with Wicks), and 3.5U in 4 TD props.   17.5U is a lot for MNF, but it is 2 games, so I've really zeroed in on where I see the biggest edges for the posted #'s.   Let's see if we can turn around Week 14 with a great doubleheader!

Man, Jordan Love absolutely killed me tonight.   Missed his 2U throwing prop by 5 yards, but worse, he missed a wide open Wicks 3x in the 1H - at least 1, if not 2 lines hit there.     Then because the 2 of them couldn't connect, the coaches took Wicks out with 10 mins to go.   Jordan Love literally cost me 11U tonight on his play and Wick's first 2 alt lines not hitting because of how bad he was throwing the ball.  Oh well, that's gambling.   

Jayden Reed never went deep, all short-stuff, so that wasn't a good call.   GB-NYG O36 was a good call, Spears was a great call, and ironicallly, all of my TD plays got real chances except the 2 NYG TE's - Levis tackled at the half-yard line, Wilson got a TD throw that didn't connect, and Wicks got a ton of snaps in the RZ (and was open on a couple but Love went elsewhere).  But no TD luck tonight - so -3.5U for the TD's, -2.9U for props with a 1-3 night, and +1U on ATS/ML - for a -5.4U MNF, and a -13.2U Week 14 (ugh).   

Back at it for TNF, but I'll go to bed cursing Jordan Love tonight lol.

 

WEEK 14 FINAL

ATS/ML: 31-32-1, +1.3U (WK 14 - 4-1-1, +2.1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 118-112, +114.3U  (WK 14 SNF - 7-6, +0.7U)

LONGSHOT TD: 25-207 - +0.9U  (WK 14 TNF - 0-20, -15.7U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400)

TOTAL - +116.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U; 1010U stake so far)

Edited December 12, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Well, I'm surprised lines are up, but there's 1 easy player prop I'll take right now, and 2 TD plays I have to believe are going to be tough to beat:

 

WEEK 15 TNF

ATS/ML 

LV -3 - Chargers are truly horrific without Justin Herbert.   And they're likely not getting help anytime soon from their skill guys (doubt Josh Palmer is even close by the interviews).    The D is truly bad, Russell Wilson is just not accurate (and Jeudy dropped 1 ball for 50+ yards and a TD without getting the 2nd foot inbounds).   Worse, Brandon Staley has clear signs he's losing the locker.    Grabbing it now before it gets past -3.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Davante Adams O65.5 rec yds 2U DK (WED PM - now 68.5), 87+ rec yds +210 1U, 111+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. LAC - with Josh Jacobs hurting on a short week, it's a pass week for Davante.  And we have the security in knowing the new coaching staff and Aiden O'Connell absolutely peppper Adams.   With this LAC secondary, Adams still went for 8-75 even with O'Connell making his first ever start.  MIN absolutely stifled them, but the LAC coverage is nowhere near as good.   So I have to take this line, in other weeks it would be 15+ yards higher (hopefully I don't curse Adams with the same line I used on Justin Jefferson last week lol).

NEW ADDED WED AM - Michael Mayer O19.5 rec yds, 40+ rec yds +300 1U & 60+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK vs. LAC - LAC's TE coverage is just abysmal, and Mayer's work keeps increasing.   This definitely calls for a 

EDIT WED PM - VOID - Keenan Allen O62.5 rec yds 2U, 82+ rec yds +210 1U, 105+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ LV - yes, Eason Stick is the QB.   Yes, LAC is a mess.   But I also think we'll see LAC have to play catch up and have to air it out.   Allen's shown he can absolutely dominate vs. LV's secondary, I trust the skill & volume.   If Herbert was playing, we'd see a line in the mid-high 80's - like Ja'marr Chase vs. JAX, this is just too far of an overreaction to the MIN game (Josh Dobbs was brutal, Nick Mullens pieced them up...Nick Mullens ppl) and to Stick.  EDIT WED PM - Allen inactive, so bet voids   

 

NEW ADDED THU AM - Josh Palmer O3.5 catches 1U  +130 & O4.5 catches +250 0.5U TheScore (B365 / US FD - consider 6-7 catch ladder at 0.5U each) ; O32.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 33.5), 51+ rec yds +210 1U, 69+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 90+ rec yds +1000 0.5U DK @ LV - he's hands down the best WR on the team now.   I imagine we’ll see quick passes thrown his way so the catch prop is ridiculous.   Because the Chargers can’t run the ball, Palmer could see 12+ targets.    So it basically calls for a 7U play on both alt lines for catches and yardage.   And the full 4U yardage ladder imo.    Could this blow up?  Sure.  But you rarely see the #1 target on a pass first lineup get this kind of line.   And unlike Dontayvion Wicks - we’re not guessing.   We know he’s the top guy.    So time to put the big boy pants, take a big breath and for me, dive in for 6U.  
 

So that's 14U on 3 player props.

 

LONGSHOT TD

Donald Parham +850 / +12000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U @ LV - DK comes up even wider than TheScore - I split the difference by going 0.4U / 0.1U both ways, but if you haven't taken it, DK offers the best odds obv.   FD could offer better single TD odds, but if it's this wide, there's no chance their 2-TD wil be offered, so you can lock in DK for 2+ pretty safely now.

Aidan O'Connell +1200 TheScore (+900 Bodog) / ??? 2+  0.4U / 0.1U vs. LAC - I would pass on this if Josh Jacobs was healthy - but he's not.   O'Connell is not a scrambler, but he's scored once on a QB sneak, so if the ball gets to the 1 and they have to consider Zamir White, I wouldn't rule out a QB score.  At these odds, I have to play it with the chance Jacobs misses the game, and a DPI like situation that gets the ball close. 

NEW ADDED WED PM Michael Mayer +600 / +10000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. LAC - like I said before, LAC's TE D is brutal, so this is the spot to attack.   Because it's AOC as QB, have to only sprinkle a half-unit.

NEW ADDED WED PM Eason Stick +800 Bodog (+600 range other sites) / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ LV - much like Jake Browning, Stick is actually very mobile.  We've seen LAC sneak it a ton at the 1, so at this number, worth a half-stake play.

NEW ADDED WED PM Isaiah Spiller +1700 FD (+600 to +800 elsewhere) / +10000 2+ Bodog (+8000 everywhere else) 0.4U / 0.1U @ LV - with a lost season now upon LAC, we've already seen Spiller being added into the mix.   We know Joshua Kelley isn't the answer, so the Chargers using more Spiller, esp near the GL, wouldn't be crazy.   At +1500, it's an auto-play, esp when other sites have him at +600 to +800

 

NEW ADDED THU AM - Alex Erickson +1400 FD / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ LV - along with Parham, Erickson is the best short area separator left so I have to take a stab as he’s got a pretty clear path to slot snaps now.   
 

 

So that’s 3.5U in 6 TD plays & 18.5U on TNF's slate, which is pretty scary - but it's basically banking on the 2 best players in the game, where the volume gets concentrated and such a low # on Mayer.    It seems wild to take 15U but the volume being so concentrated and both numbers so low to normal makes this easier to play. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

I'm in a jam @Broncofan @N4L @SmittyBacall@adamq

I signed up for a new sports book did the promo I know it was a risk free bet but I thought you got that money back in bets plural. But no it's one bet. 

So I need a what would you risk that one this week please and thankyou!

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

I'm in a jam @Broncofan @N4L @SmittyBacall@adamq

I signed up for a new sports book did the promo I know it was a risk free bet but I thought you got that money back in bets plural. But no it's one bet. 

So I need a what would you risk that one this week please and thankyou!

Does it have to be TNF?    I'd wait until Sat & Sun game lines are out.   Things like Chuba Hubbard O47.5 rush yds against NO rush D (not so great) & London O45.5 rec yds vs. TAM were smash spots.  I don't see anything remotely close to that in TNF (I do like Adams, but nothing like those 2, for example).

Edited December 12, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

14 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Does it have to be TNF?    I'd wait until Sat & Sun game lines are out.   Things like Chuba Hubbard O47.5 rush yds against NO rush D (not so great) & London O45.5 rec yds vs. TAM were smash spots.  I don't see anything remotely close to that in TNF (I do like Adams, but nothing like those 2, for example).

it's gotta be by the 24th lol gulp thank God I didn't do the 1k risk free bet I just did $400.

[adamq]

3 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

I'm in a jam @Broncofan @N4L @SmittyBacall@adamq

I signed up for a new sports book did the promo I know it was a risk free bet but I thought you got that money back in bets plural. But no it's one bet. 

So I need a what would you risk that one this week please and thankyou!

I don't wanna be the reason you lose so don't listen to me, but if I had to answer right now I would look at CMC to score a TD vs Arizona. 

Edited December 12, 2023 by adamq

[Broncofan]

On 12/11/2023 at 2:21 PM, adamq said:

Locked in Flacco to win comeback player of the year at +10000 last night. It has plummeted to +4800. Small wager and its not going to hit, but I wanted the lottery ticket juust in case. 

 

Also took Lamar to win MVP at +800. I think Hurts is out of it, and it comes down to Lamar/Tua/Purdy, depending on how these last 3 games go. Dak is +150 and Purdy +200, FD still has Hurts next to Lamar at +800

 

Myles Garrett to lead the league in sacks +650.. He is two behind the leaders right now, but Garrett is the best in the NFL and plays both Washington and NYJ before the season ends. TJ Watt is always hurt, and Mack has been good in stretches and bad in others.

Flacco at 100-1 is hard to argue value, but with the CLE OL injuries (now lost their 2 starters after losing Conklin), that's a tough path.    IMO the value for Comeback right now lies with Lamar Jackson - having a MVP level season, and while I don't think he'll miss, if BAL does get the 1 seed, that will no doubt get more attention.   At 20-1, it's worth the play.   Obv it's still a longshot, but I'd estimate his chances at more like 10-15 percent, not 5.  Hamlin's only played 9 snaps all season long (!!), so it's really how the next 4 games goes to see if 1 standout guy comes out.

MVP-wise, I think it's Dak's to lose at this point.   What will help him is if he wins the passing yards title - and IMO he and Purdy at +500 are the better values at that number than betting MVP at sub-+200 odds for Dak & Purdy both.   Tua is going to have a gimpy Hill and he just lost his most important OL in Connor Wiliams.   Stroud lost everyone, and he may miss a game.  I am legitimately surprised with both DAL & SF's schedule, that Dak & Purdy aren't the top 2 guys, so I'll take them both at +500.    

I agree with your Garrett call, it's +600 today, but still worth it.  Nice find.

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Broncofan

[N4L]

7 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

I'm in a jam @Broncofan @N4L @SmittyBacall@adamq

I signed up for a new sports book did the promo I know it was a risk free bet but I thought you got that money back in bets plural. But no it's one bet. 

So I need a what would you risk that one this week please and thankyou!

There is a ton of sh!t I like this weekend

Laporta, deebo kittle aiyuk cmc, hockenson (assuming Nick Mullens is QB1), pittman, both lions RBs, Puka, DK, lockett, jsn (assuming Geno is back)

[N4L]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I agree with your Garrett call, it's +600 today, but still worth it.  Nice find.

He is hurt and looks like he is playing with one arm. I havent watched the jags game, but he looked pretty bad the week before. 

+600 is probably worth a shot but I dont think he gets home. 

Who is DPOY this year? Seems like there really aren't a lot of candidates. Will probably be parsons by default. Shame someone like Fred Warner will never get it because he doesn't play DE. 

[Broncofan]

12 minutes ago, N4L said:

There is a ton of sh!t I like this weekend

Laporta, deebo kittle aiyuk cmc, hockenson (assuming Nick Mullens is QB1), pittman, both lions RBs, Puka, DK, lockett, jsn (assuming Geno is back)

Yeah those are all strong plays - but it's always about the #'s posted, too.   Hubbard & London being in the 40's made it such an easy call.