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BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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thebestever6

thebestever6

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Yep, love the Palmer play as well. 

 

What is QJ's line at? Stick took some deep shots for him in that 2nd half last week (led the team in yards with Stick in, even with Keenan seeing 10 targets) & I wouldn't mind playing a low Over that can hit on 1 catch. 

I locked it in at 24.5 or 25.5 can't remember last I saw it was in the low 30's

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SaveOurSonics

SaveOurSonics

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

I locked it in at 24.5 or 25.5 can't remember last I saw it was in the low 30's

Lucky you. I just hit at 31.5.


Heres my card for the night:

J.Palmer O36.5 Receiving 

Q.Johnston O31.5 Receiving 

A.Ekeler O29.5 Receiving 

A.Ekeler O4.5 Catches 

D.Adams O5.5 Catches 

 

You’ve all explained Palmer. QJ had receptions of 57 & 22 yards last week with Stick, so this is one that could hit in one play. That said, it’s riskier because those were his only two targets. I expect Ekeler to be heavily involved in the game plan after seeing 5 targets in one half with Stick. And finally, Adams his hit the Over in 3 of his last 4 with a stingy KC secondary being the lone exception. I’d expect them to lean on him at home sans Jacobs. 

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SmittyBacall

SmittyBacall

Posted
Posted
On 12/13/2023 at 3:49 PM, NYRaider said:

We just lost to Nick Mullens and have like 0 points / 200 yards over our last 6 quarters. Which is amplified even more due to the short week, possible to switch to Hoyer or Jimmy G at QB, and Jacobs likely missing the game.

As I was saying...

(Normally I don't jinx bets until the game is over, but I feel pretty good about this one).

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 12/12/2023 at 1:59 AM, Broncofan said:

Well, I'm surprised lines are up, but there's 1 easy player prop I'll take right now, and 2 TD plays I have to believe are going to be tough to beat:

 

WEEK 15 TNF

ATS/ML 

LV -3 - Chargers are truly horrific without Justin Herbert.   And they're likely not getting help anytime soon from their skill guys (doubt Josh Palmer is even close by the interviews).    The D is truly bad, Russell Wilson is just not accurate (and Jeudy dropped 1 ball for 50+ yards and a TD without getting the 2nd foot inbounds).   Worse, Brandon Staley has clear signs he's losing the locker.    Grabbing it now before it gets past -3.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Davante Adams O65.5 rec yds 2U DK (WED PM - now 68.5), 87+ rec yds +210 1U, 111+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. LAC - with Josh Jacobs hurting on a short week, it's a pass week for Davante.  And we have the security in knowing the new coaching staff and Aiden O'Connell absolutely peppper Adams.   With this LAC secondary, Adams still went for 8-75 even with O'Connell making his first ever start.  MIN absolutely stifled them, but the LAC coverage is nowhere near as good.   So I have to take this line, in other weeks it would be 15+ yards higher (hopefully I don't curse Adams with the same line I used on Justin Jefferson last week lol).

NEW ADDED WED AM - Michael Mayer O19.5 rec yds, 40+ rec yds +300 1U & 60+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK vs. LAC - LAC's TE coverage is just abysmal, and Mayer's work keeps increasing.   This definitely calls for a 

EDIT WED PM - VOID - Keenan Allen O62.5 rec yds 2U, 82+ rec yds +210 1U, 105+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ LV - yes, Eason Stick is the QB.   Yes, LAC is a mess.   But I also think we'll see LAC have to play catch up and have to air it out.   Allen's shown he can absolutely dominate vs. LV's secondary, I trust the skill & volume.   If Herbert was playing, we'd see a line in the mid-high 80's - like Ja'marr Chase vs. JAX, this is just too far of an overreaction to the MIN game (Josh Dobbs was brutal, Nick Mullens pieced them up...Nick Mullens ppl) and to Stick.  EDIT WED PM - Allen inactive, so bet voids   

 

NEW ADDED THU AM - Josh Palmer O3.5 catches 1U  +130 & O4.5 catches +250 0.5U TheScore (B365 / US FD - consider 6-7 catch ladder at 0.5U each) ; O32.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 33.5), 51+ rec yds +210 1U, 69+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 90+ rec yds +1000 0.5U DK @ LV - he's hands down the best WR on the team now.   I imagine we’ll see quick passes thrown his way so the catch prop is ridiculous.   Because the Chargers can’t run the ball, Palmer could see 12+ targets.    So it basically calls for a 7U play on both alt lines for catches and yardage.   And the full 4U yardage ladder imo.    Could this blow up?  Sure.  But you rarely see the #1 target on a pass first lineup get this kind of line.   And unlike Dontayvion Wicks - we’re not guessing.   We know he’s the top guy.    So time to put the big boy pants, take a big breath and for me, dive in for 6U.  
 

So that's 14U on 3 player props.

 

LONGSHOT TD

Donald Parham +850 / +12000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U @ LV - DK comes up even wider than TheScore - I split the difference by going 0.4U / 0.1U both ways, but if you haven't taken it, DK offers the best odds obv.   FD could offer better single TD odds, but if it's this wide, there's no chance their 2-TD wil be offered, so you can lock in DK for 2+ pretty safely now.

Aidan O'Connell +1200 TheScore (+900 Bodog) / ??? 2+  0.4U / 0.1U vs. LAC - I would pass on this if Josh Jacobs was healthy - but he's not.   O'Connell is not a scrambler, but he's scored once on a QB sneak, so if the ball gets to the 1 and they have to consider Zamir White, I wouldn't rule out a QB score.  At these odds, I have to play it with the chance Jacobs misses the game, and a DPI like situation that gets the ball close. 

NEW ADDED WED PM Michael Mayer +600 / +10000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. LAC - like I said before, LAC's TE D is brutal, so this is the spot to attack.   Because it's AOC as QB, have to only sprinkle a half-unit.

NEW ADDED WED PM Eason Stick +800 Bodog (+600 range other sites) / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ LV - much like Jake Browning, Stick is actually very mobile.  We've seen LAC sneak it a ton at the 1, so at this number, worth a half-stake play.

NEW ADDED WED PM Isaiah Spiller +1700 FD (+600 to +800 elsewhere) / +10000 2+ Bodog (+8000 everywhere else) 0.4U / 0.1U @ LV - with a lost season now upon LAC, we've already seen Spiller being added into the mix.   We know Joshua Kelley isn't the answer, so the Chargers using more Spiller, esp near the GL, wouldn't be crazy.   At +1500, it's an auto-play, esp when other sites have him at +600 to +800

 

NEW ADDED THU AM - Alex Erickson +1400 FD / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ LV - along with Parham, Erickson is the best short area separator left so I have to take a stab as he’s got a pretty clear path to slot snaps now.   
 

 

So that’s 3.5U in 6 TD plays & 18.5U on TNF's slate, which is pretty scary - but it's basically banking on the 2 best players in the game, where the volume gets concentrated and such a low # on Mayer.    It seems wild to take 15U but the volume being so concentrated and both numbers so low to normal makes this easier to play. 

 

8 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Parham is inactive - bet voids.   .   In for a dime in for a dollar - Josh Palmer TD +425 / +4500 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U at LV instead.

 

6 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Dude, where is Palmer? He's not even getting snaps.

 

6 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Is Josh Palmer playing?

 

4 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Palmer you sexy son of a b !!!

 

4 hours ago, adamq said:

Erickson ❤️❤️❤️

Ok....THAT was a rollercoaster, NGL I was pretty unhappy at halftime, even though Mayer & Adams already hit main line, Mayer scored a TD, and LV -3 was a lock.  Because we were all looking at a losing night with 8U invested in Josh Palmer...with ZERO targets at halftime.  

But then the 2H happened.   And THAT, people, is the upside in going alt lines AND taking longshot in low-forecast totals games.   And the crazy part - we could have had 10U-20U with 4 of the 6 guys on the field on the last Chargers drive - only for QJ to score (Spiller +1800, Stick +800,  Josh Palmer +4300 and Alex Erickson +14000!!!).   Oh well, after the 1H, it looked ugly, so can't really be that upset, if we're being real.

A bet I placed last minute as I didn't realize FD Canada offered it and took it 5 mins before game started (so couldn't post in time here) - Eason Stick 2+ pass-TD +340 1U & Stick 3+pass-TD +1400 0.5U - I won't count the 10.4U profit in my tally, but it still goes into my bank account the same way. 

WHAT A NIGHT (and it didn't lack for drama, given Josh Palmer's goose egg with ZERO targets in the 1H).  

 

WEEK 15 TNF RECAP

ATS/ML - 1-0, +1U - easy money

PLAYER PROPS - 3-0, +17.3U - crazy part is it could have been 7.5U more if Josh Palmer got 1 more catch and Michael Mayer got 1 more yard.    Still after getting a goose egg Palmer going 4-113-1 in the 2H was AMAZING

LONGSHOT TD - 3-2, +11.1U - the crazy part was we were literally in play for Erickson / Palmer or Spiller / Stick to score and get even more $$ - but again after only Mayer had scored, the LAC garbage time gets major $$.    


It’s crazy that we could have won 10-20U really easily but we still come out ahead with +29.4U tonight (plus personally, my Stick TD props for another 10.4U lol).   HOLY ****.     Let’s keep it going on Saturday’s slate!

 

 

WEEK 15 TO TNF

ATS/ML: 32-32-1, +2.3U (WK 15 TNF - 1-0, +1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 121-112, +131.6U (WK 15 SNF - 3-0, +17.3U)

LONGSHOT TD: 28-209 - +12.0U  (WK 14 TNF - 0-20, -15.7U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400)

TOTAL - +145.9U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 TNF - +29.4U; 1029U stake so far)

Edited by Broncofan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)

OK the Sat card's been fine tuned, all the alt lines are up & posted, and a few final additions...

 

WEEK 15 SAT SLATE

 

ATS/ML

NEW FRI AM - CHANGE - PIT @ IND O42 TheScore (42.5 DK <from IND -2.5>) - with new TJ Watt & Alex Highsmith are both back, and no Jonathan Taylor, my IND -2.5 doesn't feel as good.  One thing I do know - both the PIT & IND D are more leaky than advertised.   And playing indoors, IIRC IND has gone over each time.   Easier to take this play.

 

PLAYER PROPS

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Nick Mullens O1.5 pass TD +145 1U, O2.5 pass TD's +550 0.5U FD @ CIN - just discovered that FD does alt lines for pass TD's, so have to take a shot on a MIN O that can't run effectively, but faces a very leaky CIN D.    Worth the 1.5U play to try and win 4.2U.  Consider this a test balloon after the initial success with TNF.

 

LONGSHOT TD

NEW ADDED SAT AM - Tanner Hudson +700 / +10000 2+ FD <waiting to see if it will rise on Sat noon ET> 0.4U / 0.1U FD @ CIN -  he's emerging as the main go-to guy, but still splits enough time to make the yardage props tough to back.  I'm OK though to take a stab at these #'s on the TD lines.   Willing to wait to see if there's a last-hour odds rise like we saw with Joshua Palmer on TNF.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Lucas Krull +1000 FD / ??? 2+ TD (not offered on DK/Bodog yet) 0.4U / 0.1U @ DET - he's the new PS TE who gets work, at least until Greg Dulcich returns.   Dulcich got put on the 21-day practice window, but it doesn't sound like he's playing this weekend.   Gotta take a shot on the leaky DET D, with the other guy who takes pass-catching reps from Adam Trautman. 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Brock Wright +1300 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. DEN - have to take a shot on the leaky DEN TE D, with the guy who plays in 12 formation which they'll use a lot in the RZ

 

 

The Sat card's pretty much complete barring new info that presents an opportunity for TD value, so we're now up to 29U for the day - which really is more than enough lol.   Full card is update on Page 391, linked below - let's keep the Week 15 TNF momentum going!  

 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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