Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

@Broncofan I guess I keep mentioning how many units the cash out is bc I'm shocked that the odds changed that drastically in two weeks lol. I did put 4 units on Campbell at +400 bc I don't care in the end about the huge cashout I just wanna lock in some nice profit.

Maybe mentally I'm not prepared to lose this bet but I'm not ready for him to cash it out and him win it lol. I'm playing this till the end just a waiting game. If I was struggling financially it be different thanks for your feedback. 

[N4L]

I like the ravens -3. Their DL is going to give MIA a ton of issues. MIA just does not have people movers on their OL. It will be tough sledding on the ground, especially considering the speed at LB for BAL. 

The only way I see MIA moving the ball is with Tyreek. Tua throws the ball very quickly and he throws it significantly further downfield than you'd expect given his average time to throw. Every starter in BAL's secondary is >200 lbs. They do not have anyone who can hope to cover Tyreek. I think MIA will (continue) to force feed tyreek the ball. I watched the all22 of the DAL/MIA game and Tua basically did not have eyes for anyone else. I see no reason why that changes.

I will take the Tyreek over 92.5 rec yards. If MIA wins, he will have to go over this number, but I also think it is very possible the Ravens cover and Tyreek still hits this number. So it is a little bit of a built in hedge. 

I also really like the overs with Tua attempts (35) and completions (22) because I think MIA will be smart enough to realize pretty early on that they need to throw the ball at a high frequency, and that their OL is not equipped to handle the BAL front for longer than 2.5s. The ravens secondary tackles really well but they dont run all that well. Any suggestions as to which one I should do between attempts or completions or if I should do both?

I really like the MIA D right now, Fangio has them playing great ball. Chubb is a terror and Wilkins is awesome. For this reason I am tempted to take the under 46.5 as well. What do you guys think about the total in that game? 

[N4L]

For the SF game, give me the over 50 assuming Brisset plays. Niners D is very banged up right now and I think washington will score enough to push this number. Niners offense might go for 40 so it shouldnt be that hard. I am also taking the niners team total over as well. 

I am taking the over 125 rush + rec for cmc. He will tear up washington and I want to capture all of his big plays. We saw it in the arizona game, when the niners can rush they will continue to do so. Washington is going to get torched on the ground so I think the niners will continue to feed him. 

I agree with the Deebo read by @Broncofan but Trent Williams is back, Deebo has an injured neck, which scares me, but I think Aiyuk is the safer play this week. Probably will just take both tbh. 

[NYRaider]

8 hours ago, N4L said:

I like the ravens -3. Their DL is going to give MIA a ton of issues. MIA just does not have people movers on their OL. It will be tough sledding on the ground, especially considering the speed at LB for BAL. 

The only way I see MIA moving the ball is with Tyreek. Tua throws the ball very quickly and he throws it significantly further downfield than you'd expect given his average time to throw. Every starter in BAL's secondary is >200 lbs. They do not have anyone who can hope to cover Tyreek. I think MIA will (continue) to force feed tyreek the ball. I watched the all22 of the DAL/MIA game and Tua basically did not have eyes for anyone else. I see no reason why that changes.

I will take the Tyreek over 92.5 rec yards. If MIA wins, he will have to go over this number, but I also think it is very possible the Ravens cover and Tyreek still hits this number. So it is a little bit of a built in hedge. 

I also really like the overs with Tua attempts (35) and completions (22) because I think MIA will be smart enough to realize pretty early on that they need to throw the ball at a high frequency, and that their OL is not equipped to handle the BAL front for longer than 2.5s. The ravens secondary tackles really well but they dont run all that well. Any suggestions as to which one I should do between attempts or completions or if I should do both?

I really like the MIA D right now, Fangio has them playing great ball. Chubb is a terror and Wilkins is awesome. For this reason I am tempted to take the under 46.5 as well. What do you guys think about the total in that game? 

I have 1U on the Ravens -3

[NYRaider]

Bet 0.2 units on a couple of college parlays today:

First (+550):

Ole Miss ML

Jaxson Dart O213.5 passing - Hit

Jaxson Dart O1.5 passing TD - Hit

Second (+150):

Carson Beck O257.5 passing

Carson Beck O1.5 passing TD

[adamq]

Took a flyer on Gibbs to record the longest reception at +7000 on FD. Just a play on the crazy odds, for comparison FD has Pollard at +2900

 

I'd like to find an alternate receptions prop to get Monty at o2.5... I think Goff will be dumping it off quite a bit 

Edited December 30, 2023 by adamq

[Broncofan]

I'm glad I had the DET +6 play, because if I had the DET ML, I'd be beside myself BOTH for the ref screw-up and then for HC Campbell letting his emotions get the better of him, and passing up a XP and play for OT.   Plus, you give 1 more drive, I like the chances Gibbs & Ferguson hit, esp after Ferguson literally got targeted for 4 25+ yard plays and missed all 4, and Gibbs had a 34 yard run called back - main & alt lines hit in both cases, instead it's a 1-3 night on props, and 1-0 ATS, for a -5.5U night.    Still up +4.1U for the week, but looking for the SAT misfortune tonight to turn around. 

 

WEEK 17 SAT 

ATS/ML: 40-39-1, +0.4U (WK 17 SAT - 2-0, +3U)

**PLAYER PROPS: 147-135, +137.4U** (WK 17 SAT - 2-0, +4.1U - Mclaurin alt line cashout cost included)

**LONGSHOT TD: 34-245, +25.4U**  (WK 17 SAT - 0-6, -3U, ;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950)

TOTAL - +163.4U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 TNF - +4.1U; 1274U stake so far)

Edited December 31, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK the Richie James prop came in, and as expected, it's wildly low, so I'm going with NEW ADDED SUN AM - Richie James O12.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ rec yds + 220 1U & 50+ rec yds +1100 0.5U vs. CIN - with Kadarius Toney out, the other guy who wins in the same way / skills as Toney does is James.   James flashed last game, and while Mecole Hardman is off IR, he plays a boundary position, so I'm all over James at this low number, and instead of 40+, I'll play for the max alt line here.   That's pretty much it for SUN, BOL!

 

FULL WEEK 17 SAT/SUN CARD:

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Broncofan

[Wentz you dog you]

Alright boys help me out. I have a free $200 single bet I can make. Where do I lay it this weekend 

[thebestever6]

5 hours ago, Wentz you dog you said:

Alright boys help me out. I have a free $200 single bet I can make. Where do I lay it this weekend 

I'm in the same predicament bc of a free bet hedge and you're gonna think I'm crazy but I took jeudy catches over 3.5 +110. I think the qb change will pay dividends Stidham is the type of qb to keep the offense on schedule. 

[adamq]

10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Richie James

I dont see any alt lines for him.. on which book did you find those? 

[bigbadbuff]

1 hour ago, adamq said:

I dont see any alt lines for him.. on which book did you find those? 

I saw bet rivers had him at 19.5 +155

[SmittyBacall]

I feel really good about this week, boys. Let’s finish the season strong.

[thebestever6]

On 12/27/2023 at 3:12 PM, Broncofan said:

This sets up much like last year's season ending 6-150-2 WK18 finale vs. LAC.   Gotta take the 4U 3-alt line play.   Which brings me to.

I just read this now is this worth $5 bucks to put on him for leading receiver he's +10000.

[SmittyBacall]

Just now, SmittyBacall said:

I feel really good about this week, boys. Let’s finish the season strong.

In addition to many @Broncofan plays, I’m taking Adam Thielen over 43.5 receiving yards, and I’ll be playing his milestones up to 100 yards at +1200. JAX D is a pass funnel and CJ Beathard starting should see more offensive opportunities for CAR. I think he has a good day. BOL all.