JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 9 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Yeah, this is WAY too soon to write off that promo being offered. If it's not out after Labor Day weekend, then sure, it's probably not happening. But they're all about trying to capture the casual betting crowd and getting them hooked, so it's a little too soon. Timing-wise, the best time to garner the most interest is after all the preseason games are done. Gotta fill up that dead time with higher-interest promotions. For now, the books have preseason action to keep bettors interested. Yea I mean, im a little squirrelly betting all these futures when plenty of injuries can still happen. I wouldnt play that promo until after preseason is over for sure 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 (edited) A few juicy futures I like, most of which are probably enticing due to injury potential... Player to Score 10+ TDs (regular season): Anthony Richardson +210 - Injuries aside, I think this is a good bet at those odds. I know his rushing TD pace last year before injury is unsustainable, and Johnathan Taylor will "vulture" some goal line scores, but I like him to his this mark. James Conner +500 - This is my favorite, and great value. I have high hopes for Arizona this year. I think their offense with MHJ and a healthy Kyler Murray will be dynamic. Expect Conner to reap the benefits. Cooper Kupp +650 - Again, great value for a guy that is a potential bounce back candidate. Kupp, even evidenced by his injury-plagued year last season, sees a lot of RZ work (19 targets in 12 games last year). In fact, he had more RZ targets, receptions and TDs than Puka Nacua in 5 less games. Health will be key here, but worth a shot. Gus Edwards +1000 - This is a bit of a longshot, I admit, but the value justifies the bet. Simple enough, Edwards will be the goal line back on a Jim Harbaugh-led team that wants to run the ball. Blake Corum had 27 rushing TDs in 15 games last year for Harbaugh at Michigan. If JK Dobbins goes down with injury, which isn't unlikely, he could hit this easily. From the GM himself: Quote "He's the bell cow, the goal line [guy], the finisher," Hortiz added. "The right mentality for what we're looking to do here. I told you we wanted to be bigger, play a physical style of football on both sides of the ball and he helps us do that." Others I like at lesser value... Garrett Wilson +170 - I just think he has a dominant season as Rodgers' version of Davante Adams. Raheem Mostert +150 - He's not going to match last years absurd TD totals (18!), but I don't see him dropping off that much. Mostert is still the preferred short yardage back to Achane. Edited August 21 by SmittyBacall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BStanRamFan Posted August 21 Author Share Posted August 21 DK's opening lines for Week 1 TDs were atrocious. A few gems, but they just baked the tax into their odds for this market. DK isnt known for great TD odds in general, FD and 365 are usually the softest, but the early lines for the "stars" were absolutely awful. That said, Hayden Hurst a +800 is a gift. Drafted by Roman, awful WR core, and first on the depth chart with DIssly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 (edited) 27 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said: DK's opening lines for Week 1 TDs were atrocious. A few gems, but they just baked the tax into their odds for this market. DK isnt known for great TD odds in general, FD and 365 are usually the softest, but the early lines for the "stars" were absolutely awful. That said, Hayden Hurst a +800 is a gift. Drafted by Roman, awful WR core, and first on the depth chart with DIssly. Don't forget that Parham is there, too. Parham is +400. But yes, I am there with you - as much as Parham was my TD play for the last 2 years, he was at +800 or better most weeks until he started finding the EZ. I'm totally willing to add Hurst to the Week 1 list as well at that number (whereas I have to pass on Parham at +400 <sad emoji 🥲>) Great call. Edited August 21 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BStanRamFan Posted August 21 Author Share Posted August 21 2 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Don't forget that Parham is there, too. Parham is +400. But yes, I am there with you - as much as Parham was my TD play for the last 2 years, he was at +800 or better most weeks until he started finding the EZ. I'm totally willing to add Hurst to the Week 1 list as well at that number (whereas I have to pass on Parham at +400 <sad emoji 🥲>) Great call. based on the early official depth chart Parham is TE3 behind Dissly and Hurst. No doubt he can emerge but early on I think Hurst gets alot of burn. PLus theyre going to run the ball a ton and that means 2 TE sets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 4 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said: based on the early official depth chart Parham is TE3 behind Dissly and Hurst. No doubt he can emerge but early on I think Hurst gets alot of burn. PLus theyre going to run the ball a ton and that means 2 TE sets. Sorry if I wasn't clear - I was specifically referring to the RZ packages that Parham has been pretty famous for. It's why his TD prop is so juiced - I think the books are assuming that will continue, but as you noted, it's no guarantee with a new coaching staff. I wasn't arguing the between-20's depth chart at all, I think Parham is likely 3rd in snaps (as Dissly gets a ton of blocking work). Hurst is definitely the Gerald Everett in this gang, and that's before you add the Roman history. Thing is, we never saw Everett at +800 and Parham at +400, so this is definitely one of those attack spots. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BStanRamFan Posted August 22 Author Share Posted August 22 While we're talking about the Chargers, Gus Edwards ATD at +230-+240 feels like a gift. Dobbins is lead back, but any goal line situations are going to Gus Bus. I can see Gus Edwards having a Jamaal Williams type season where he just goes off in the TD column in this offense. Harbaugh is going to pound the ball and that o-line is built for it. This will be below +200 by week 2 IMO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 2 hours ago, BStanRamFan said: While we're talking about the Chargers, Gus Edwards ATD at +230-+240 feels like a gift. Dobbins is lead back, but any goal line situations are going to Gus Bus. I can see Gus Edwards having a Jamaal Williams type season where he just goes off in the TD column in this offense. Harbaugh is going to pound the ball and that o-line is built for it. This will be below +200 by week 2 IMO This may be of interest to you... Quote A few juicy futures I like, most of which are probably enticing due to injury potential... Player to Score 10+ TDs (regular season): Gus Edwards +1000 - This is a bit of a longshot, I admit, but the value justifies the bet. Simple enough, Edwards will be the goal line back on a Jim Harbaugh-led team that wants to run the ball. Blake Corum had 27 rushing TDs in 15 games last year for Harbaugh at Michigan. If JK Dobbins goes down with injury, which isn't unlikely, he could hit this easily. From the GM himself: Quote "He's the bell cow, the goal line [guy], the finisher," Hortiz added. "The right mentality for what we're looking to do here. I told you we wanted to be bigger, play a physical style of football on both sides of the ball and he helps us do that." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BStanRamFan Posted August 22 Author Share Posted August 22 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: This may be of interest to you... It is very much of interest. What book did you find that on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 3 hours ago, BStanRamFan said: It is very much of interest. What book did you find that on? B365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 On 8/21/2024 at 8:28 AM, thebestever6 said: fanduel sucks anymore they don't have that bet $50 on the Superbowl and get $5 in bonus bets for every game that team wins up to 10 wins I loved that bet lop. BetRivers has that promo now. Bet $50 on a SB Winner and get $5 free bets for each win 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 55 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: BetRivers has that promo now. Bet $50 on a SB Winner and get $5 free bets for each win good looks now I need a good bet Packers Or Philly I'm thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 32 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: good looks now I need a good bet Packers Or Philly I'm thinking. Since i already have those parlays where if KC or Texans win the AFC i win $950/960 i may play a 3rd team for this promo and they make the SB just hedge out. Hopefully all 3 make the playoffs: thinking Cincy or Jets at +1400 or +2000 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 (edited) I need to shop around but these are the futures I like, with lines from FD Most receiving yards among rookies- Brian Thomas Jr +1300 Dalton Kincaid O775.5 rec yards David Montgomery O825.5 rushinf yards Ken Walker O875.5 rushing yards MVP Justin Herbert +3000 Edited August 23 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 19 minutes ago, adamq said: Most receiving yards among rookies- Brian Thomas Jr +1300 Those are nice odds for a guy who will be sneaky productive, but I just couldn't bring myself to bet against MHJ and Nabers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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