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Weekly Bets Thread


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12 hours ago, bucksavage1 said:

Looking at Malik Nabers props. MHJR has participated in any pre draft workouts yet. 
 

1st non QB taken +700

1st WR taken +400

Someone mentioned that MHJ may very well have a promise from a top 5 team. Zero point in working out when you know for sure that a team is taking you that high. (Arizona would be my guess)

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Just turned 77$ into 1k in 2 days lol. I’ve done this so many times but never pull profits. Man it’s pretty insane I turned 60$ into 800$ as well. I can’t believe the insane streak I was. Had about 300 and went down to 77$ and just ran that ish up. Feels good, ima keep adding. Goal is to hit 3k by next week. Been gambling a bit smarter lately. 

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As always here’s the proof. 
 

IMG-1402.png
 

 

IMG-1403.png

Hit a few cold streaks the last 2. Had about 11sh but decided to yolo a big bet..

 

I would have won wore if the sixers covered yesterday vs the lakers. 
 

This is the bet that set it off. 
 

IMG-1404.png


IMG-1405.png

IMG-1406.png

Because it cancelled it took me down to 600sh total instead of 900-1000.

Edited by El Ramster
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For the money to be that large, he was doing this with a group of people. This goes way deeper than just Porter

 

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/39808900/nba-eyes-raptors-jontay-porter-betting-issues

 

That night, Porter played just four minutes before leaving the game because of what the Raptors said was a re-aggravation of an eye injury he'd suffered four days earlier in a game against the Memphis Grizzlies. He did not score against the Clippers, had three rebounds and one assist, and did not attempt a 3, meaning the under hit on all of the props.

The next day, as part of a daily report to users on betting results, DraftKings Sportsbook reported that the under on Porter's 3-pointers was the biggest money winner for bettors of any NBA player props from games that evening.

Porter played 19 minutes two days later and scored 12 points with seven rebounds and three assists.

On March 20, in a game against the Phoenix Suns, Porter played just three minutes before leaving the game because of what the Raptors said was an illness and did not return. He did not score, attempted and missed one shot, and had two rebounds.

Sportsbooks had his over/unders set at around 7.5 points and 5.5 rebounds.

The next day, DraftKings SportsBooks reported to its users that Porter's prop bets were the No. 1 moneymaker from the night in the NBA

Edited by adamq
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Draft bets are my bread and butter. This year I am on the following so far:

2nd overall pick, Drake Maye -140, +140, and +200 (now +140). The original bet was placed a month ago, and the odds have been more enticing as the process has come on. Simply, I'm of the opinion that Maye's profile as a prospect, historically, is valued higher than that of Jayden Daniels. When I boil it down, Daniels has more warts and less upside. The biggest, and maybe only thing, to sway the betting lines in Daniels' favor was the Commanders signing Marcus Mariota, who comparatively has a similar game. That's not enough for me, and I'm sticking with my instincts here and going Maye.

5th overall pick, Malik Nabers +450, +260 (now +175) - I hopped on this immediately after the Keenan Allen news, in which the Chargers receiving cupboard was made bare. Marvin Harrison Jr. is expected to be the pick at 4, leaving Nabers, who also has an elite draft profile, as the best option at 5 if they want to go WR. The projected QB panic is worrisome (especially Minnesota loading up with an additional 1st rounder), as this bet is banking on only 3 QBs to go top 5, but at those odds I needed to take a stab. Also, Jim Harbaugh's recent comments gloating about great OL play and their attention to the top tackles during the draft process may indicates a trade back, which doesn't help. I don't think the odds are good enough anymore at +175, but I will ride them at +450 and +260.

Under 4.5 QBs in the First Round +160 (still +160). The value here is kind of shocking. I think Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy are locks to go top 10, likely in that order. But beyond that, I'm not buying the Penix or Nix first round hype. We see this sort of QB hype every year. I think they both have enough questions to get the Will Levis, Malik Willis treatment on draft day and go on day 2.

I've also taken a few, half-unit long shot stabs at Xavier Worthy to be drafted by the Dolphins +2800 - speed, McDaniels, duh - and Taliese Fuaga +2000 to go 5th overall as a "hedge" for Chargers staying put and going OL at 5. I think as a mauling, pure RT, he fits the Harbaugh mold more than Alt does.

More to come once Draft Position over/unders are released.

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On 3/4/2023 at 7:01 PM, SmittyBacall said:

Placed a unit on Anthony Richardson first overall +5000 almost a month ago. Currently +400 and already offering a 500% return. I don’t think he goes #1, and will probably cash out closer to draft day, but it’s a good start to draft season.

Right now I’m eyeing First WR taken. Quentin Johnson currently sitting as the favourite at +100. Addison and JSN both +300. With Addison’s slight weigh in and poor 40, it’s much tougher to see him go first. JSN provides some value but it appears Quentin Johnson is the safe bet right now. Any opinions? 

Waiting for the First TE taken bet to open so I can empty the account on Kincaid.

Bingo.

On 3/6/2023 at 12:20 PM, SmittyBacall said:

I like the value in JSN first WR drafted +275. Feels like 50/50 at worst with Johnston. Addison feels like the odd man out after weighing in so slight.

Bingo.

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On 3/12/2023 at 5:43 PM, SmittyBacall said:

Malik Wright has developed into maybe my most dependable sources come draft time. He was the first one to lock in Jamarr Chase into Cincinnati despite the Sewell chatter, was one of the first on Stingly Jr to Houston, among other tidbits. Essentially, he doesn’t say anything unless he knows. I treat his info as gospel, and it hasn’t failed me yet. He’s made me some serious cash.

Today he’s confident the pick remains Bryce Young, despite the size fit for Reich. At +350, I’m going to stay true lay some coin down. 

Bingo.

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On 3/20/2023 at 1:55 PM, SmittyBacall said:

Very intrigued by Dalton Kincaid +150.  as the first TE drafted. Utah pro day is on March 23rd. If he tears it up (like he should) it should vault him over Mayer. 

To be honest if it wasn’t for his age (23.5) I would already have the bet in.

Bingo.

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On 4/11/2023 at 12:44 PM, SmittyBacall said:

Adding a few more bets to the draft slate:

1.) Christian Gonzalez first corner taken +120 - I will happily take this at plus money. Was once the heavy favorite at -175, but Witherspoon's 40 time a few days ago shifted the odds. Athletic profile is the difference-maker here. Gonzalez fits the prototypical mold of an elite corner and Witherspoon's profile is underwhelming and incomplete. That's enough for me.

2.) Will Levis draft position over 7.5 +120 - Not buying the hype. Media perception on QBs is typically higher than the NFL. Will gladly take plus money here.

3. ) Bengals drafting Michael Mayer at +700 - Bit of a longshot here, but odds are too good for a team that should be considered the favorite, IMO. We have a gaping need at the position and Mayer fits our desired draft profile to a tee. If he's there at 28 I think he's the obvious pick. Going with my gut here.

:( 

:)

:(

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1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

Draft bets are my bread and butter. This year I am on the following so far:

2nd overall pick, Drake Maye -140, +140, and +200 (now +140). The original bet was placed a month ago, and the odds have been more enticing as the process has come on. Simply, I'm of the opinion that Maye's profile as a prospect, historically, is valued higher than that of Jayden Daniels. When I boil it down, Daniels has more warts and less upside. The biggest, and maybe only thing, to sway the betting lines in Daniels' favor was the Commanders signing Marcus Mariota, who comparatively has a similar game. That's not enough for me, and I'm sticking with my instincts here and going Maye.

5th overall pick, Malik Nabers +450, +260 (now +175) - I hopped on this immediately after the Keenan Allen news, in which the Chargers receiving cupboard was made bare. Marvin Harrison Jr. is expected to be the pick at 4, leaving Nabers, who also has an elite draft profile, as the best option at 5 if they want to go WR. The projected QB panic is worrisome (especially Minnesota loading up with an additional 1st rounder), as this bet is banking on only 3 QBs to go top 5, but at those odds I needed to take a stab. Also, Jim Harbaugh's recent comments gloating about great OL play and their attention to the top tackles during the draft process may indicates a trade back, which doesn't help. I don't think the odds are good enough anymore at +175, but I will ride them at +450 and +260.

Under 4.5 QBs in the First Round +160 (still +160). The value here is kind of shocking. I think Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy are locks to go top 10, likely in that order. But beyond that, I'm not buying the Penix or Nix first round hype. We see this sort of QB hype every year. I think they both have enough questions to get the Will Levis, Malik Willis treatment on draft day and go on day 2.

I've also taken a few, half-unit long shot stabs at Xavier Worthy to be drafted by the Dolphins +2800 - speed, McDaniels, duh - and Taliese Fuaga +2000 to go 5th overall as a "hedge" for Chargers staying put and going OL at 5. I think as a mauling, pure RT, he fits the Harbaugh mold more than Alt does.

More to come once Draft Position over/unders are released.

 

I'm with you on Maye, I think he's been their target the whole time.

Also like the under on 4.5 QBs in the first. Nix and Penix are definitely not st rounders to me

 

But i don't trust Harbaugh to take Nabers at 5. I think he'd be OK with Palmer. QJ, 2nd-3rd round rookie, and a Tyler Boyd type. Seems like a spot for Alt imo

 

Edit- I didn't see your last sentence there about Fuaga and LA lol

Edited by adamq
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