JaguarCrazy2832 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: I cited the books - FD / DK lines opened after midnight on Monday. The others weren’t up until 9-10 hours later. Pays to stay up late lol. PS - I guess we lose the hour timestamp on our posts after a while. The OG post on page 422 doesn’t show it anymore I guess but when I said Monday AM it’s like 1230 AM ET. Yea i hate when the timestamp hour goes away. Really need that for Survivor PickEm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BetterCallSaul Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I voted Pacheco over 67.5 rush yards, over 47.5 total points, Kelce & Kittle getting TD’s, and a longshot bet that Pacheco wins SBMVP. Ive never bet sports in my life…are these good bets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Travis Kelce we are never getting back together Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Travis Kelce we are never getting back together Nevermind, we are a love story again Travis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Had Jennings as super bowl mvp, would have been quite the night if 49ers defense had finished in OT Tomorrow, Andrew Wiggins 15+ points +185, 20+ +700 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) Well, that was a fitting end to the 2024 season - because it took until the very end of the game to decide whether or not it was a profitable week - and literally the last 3 drives of the game (KC tying drive, and then SF / KC OT drive) literally decided our fates....but even with a SF ML loss as a result, that L actually turned a TON of profit to end 2024.... WEEK 22 SUPER BOWL RECAP ATS/ML - 0-1, -2.2U - way it goes. One of the few times when I lost, I actually won because…. PLAYER PROPS - 4-4, +2.0U - got the goose egg with Kittle / Deebo / Rice / Pacheco but everyone but Purdy hit all the lines so I negate most of the SF ML loss. And the 4Q and OT drive got Kelce from a L to main/alt line and got Juice's +650 alt line to hit, so that was a 11U swing on its own . And then what a 2H for… LONGSHOT TD - 3-4, +14.4U - it looked like an O-fer in the 1H - but my persistence with MVS all playoffs and then ID Hardman & Jennings roles pays off handsomely. Hardman's TD obviously was huge as it was another extra 7U in the fold. So even with the SF ML losing -2.2U, that was literally a +16U swing late, and OT alone for +12U more....it's rare to lose the ML and then gain 12U as a result so we'll take it lol. So that’s a +14.2U Super Bowl Sunday - SUPER INDEED. What a way to finish the 2024 NFL season! WEEK 22 - SUPERBOWL & 2024 SEASON FINAL SUMMARY ATS/ML: 49-45-1, +5.6U (WK 22 - 0-1, -2.2U) PLAYER PROPS: 173-168, +112.5U (WK 22 - 4-4, +2.0U ) LONGSHOT TD: 49-297, +67.2U (WK 22 - 3-4, +14.4U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950; WK17 - J-Johnson +550, J-Browning +1100, C-Kolar +1500, J-Love +950 & J-Mundt +1100; WK18 K-Miller +400; WK19 - B-Jordan +800 & T-Atwell +1000 & D-Johnson +500 & C-Austin +2000; WK22 M-Valdes-Scantling +700 & J-Jennings +800 & M-Hardman OT winner +1600) TOTAL - +185.3U (WK1: +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U; WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 - +23.3U; WK18 -9.4U; WK19 - +10.3U; WK20 - -0.7U; WK21 - -11.2U; WK22 - +14.2U; 1619U stake total, ROI - +11.4%) Edited February 12 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I was one Rice receiving yard away from hitting a +1700 parlay. I needed him to get 40 and he only got 39. On the flip side I did have the Chiefs winning the Superbowl from the beginning on the season at +600 and it paid off. I was so happy about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Had about 3500 to gain had the niners won it in OT. Never even considered hedging, if I wasn't so locked into the game I definitely would have slapped 500-1000 on the KC moneyline at some point near the end. Live and learn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Helluva game for me. Kelce not scoring was disappointing but up big nonetheless Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 hours ago, adamq said: Had Jennings as super bowl mvp, would have been quite the night if 49ers defense had finished in OT Tomorrow, Andrew Wiggins 15+ points +185, 20+ +700 DK offering me a no-sweat bet for 4U even though it’s “only” +160 I’ll tail that 15+ lol. BOL! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 9 hours ago, Broncofan said: DK offering me a no-sweat bet for 4U even though it’s “only” +160 I’ll tail that 15+ lol. BOL! There we go! I'll take it, we were lucky he hit all of his 3s (fouled on his 4th). They force fed Klay a lot, and AW wasn't very aggressive at all. Looking at someone from the Suns tomorrow, they have Sac coming to town 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) Thx @adamq that was a sweet no-sweat bet for +6.4U. Wish they were all that easy lol. Now that football is over, gotta spread a little more action (but not go crazy): UFC 288 - 1 dog play I absolutely take is Tafa +125. Should be favored by a wide margin over his opponent De Lima. Also I do not really understand Volkanovski at near-even odds, Topuria's day is coming, but too soon with his first real massive step up to top 10 competition, let alone the champ-prior-to-moving-up. Same deal with Robert Whitaker over Costa. Don't really think Dern can take down Lemos, so Lemos at -130 is pretty tasty. Same with Merab D over Cejudo (who fired his coach publicly, horrible look) & Barlow over Quinlan. I put 4U on Tafa, and 2U each on Volk and Lemos. The other 3 are -200 or more, so I did a 1U 6-leg (Volkanovski / Whitaker / Dvashvili / Tafa / Barlow / Lemos) for +2200. But can't rely solely on parleys, so that's my UFC288 card (although I'll probably adding 1-2U more on Lemos KO & Tafa R2 KO sprinkle if the odds are tasty - not out yet). I'm more a casual for UFC compared to my football interest, but it's a fun card for sure. Edited February 13 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I was one Pacheco TD away from hitting a 10 leg, +50000 parlay. That guy is officially dead to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 hours ago, Broncofan said: Thx @adamq that was a sweet no-sweat bet for +6.4U. Wish they were all that easy lol. Now that football is over, gotta spread a little more action (but not go crazy): UFC 288 - 1 dog play I absolutely take is Tafa +125. Should be favored by a wide margin over his opponent De Lima. Also I do not really understand Volkanovski at near-even odds, Topuria's day is coming, but too soon with his first real massive step up to top 10 competition, let alone the champ-prior-to-moving-up. Same deal with Robert Whitaker over Costa. Don't really think Dern can take down Lemos, so Lemos at -130 is pretty tasty. Same with Merab D over Cejudo (who fired his coach publicly, horrible look) & Barlow over Quinlan. I put 4U on Tafa, and 2U each on Volk and Lemos. The other 3 are -200 or more, so I did a 1U 6-leg (Volkanovski / Whitaker / Dvashvili / Tafa / Barlow / Lemos) for +2200. But can't rely solely on parleys, so that's my UFC288 card (although I'll probably adding 1-2U more on Lemos KO & Tafa R2 KO sprinkle if the odds are tasty - not out yet). I'm more a casual for UFC compared to my football interest, but it's a fun card for sure. Seems like a lot of the sharps I follow are split. One has a max bet on Topuria, while the other thinks it's a toss up (I'm with you on Volk though). I actually love Whit this week over Costa but who knows if Costa even makes it. I would love Dern in a smash spot if she didn't have such a crappy fight IQ. Why she repeatedly chooses to keep it standing when she has a clear ground advantage is beyond me. If she does that this week, she's getting pieced up but if she gets it to the ground, it'll be an easy W. Merab and Henry is another split on the sharps I follow. Guy with the max on Topuria is also big on Henry, while my main guy likes Merab. I usually have a lot going for UFC nights so I can post a bunch here unless we want a specific thread in the Other Sports section. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) 3 hours ago, JonStark said: Seems like a lot of the sharps I follow are split. One has a max bet on Topuria, while the other thinks it's a toss up (I'm with you on Volk though). I actually love Whit this week over Costa but who knows if Costa even makes it. I would love Dern in a smash spot if she didn't have such a crappy fight IQ. Why she repeatedly chooses to keep it standing when she has a clear ground advantage is beyond me. If she does that this week, she's getting pieced up but if she gets it to the ground, it'll be an easy W. Merab and Henry is another split on the sharps I follow. Guy with the max on Topuria is also big on Henry, while my main guy likes Merab. I usually have a lot going for UFC nights so I can post a bunch here unless we want a specific thread in the Other Sports section. With Dern it's not about IQ - she literally can't get ppl to ground. She has a 14 percent TD success rate. Once she's got them on the ground, then it's where she's comfortable. But with either great TD defence (TDD) technicians, or those who are simply stronger than her and who don't go off-balance, she's stymied. IMO that's Lemos. Lemos has only given up 2/12 TD's to all fighters except the champ Zhang, who's levels above everyone else. Zhang is one of the few fighters who's stronger, better striking, and better grapplling/wrestling than nearly all of her opponents. There's no shame in losing to her badly (it makes what Thug Rose did so damn impressive IMO). Without Zhang's fight, with Lemos' in her entire career - the 2 TD's were to fighters with far better strength/technique on entry than Dern, and it was just 1x each fight. Honestly, Dern gets a ton of love because she's a smokeshow away from the ring, and Zuckerberg's crush. She has 1 very obvious path to victory, but getting there is the issue. If it's standing, Lemos will absolutely crush her (in a lot of ways, Lemos KO is the best value rather than -130 ML, but it not out yet until later this week). Cejudo let his longtime coach go, and he can't match Merab's insane pace (50 TD attempts on Yan...FIFTY). Cejudo either has to catch Merab early, or he gets swarmed. Still a path, but I'd put Merab at -400, not -200. That's respect to Cejudo's name & past IMO. Probably best to keep it in Other Sports most times, it's pretty niche (Books say it's <10% of volume on fight night if the big any of the big 3 NA sports are on)....but UFC 298, 299 & 300 (hopefully) are going to be star-studded. 298 & 299 are crazy good matchup-wise. I posted full card reasoning there, linked below: Edited February 13 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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