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Weekly Bets Thread


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24 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Im shocked the line hasnt moved. I thought for sure KC would be favored by now. Same goes for Kelce and other receiving props, not much movement at all

Over 85 percent of public $ is on KC by all accounts.   The only logical conclusion is that books are making a stand.   
 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Over 85 percent of public $ is on KC by all accounts.   The only logical conclusion is that books are making a stand.   
 

 

 

 

 

 

The books got the script!

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It’s a road game so it’s not perfect but this is the right spot to go **Alpero Sengun O23.5 pts 2U / 30+ 1U / 35+ 0.5U & Jalen Green O20.5 pts 2U / 25+ 1U / 30+ 0.5U** tomorrow.    Waiting on FD as DK usually not as good.   

Edited by Broncofan
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23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

It’s a road game so it’s not perfect but this is the right spot to go **Alpero Sengun O23.5 pts 2U / 30+ 1U / 35+ 0.5U & Jalen Green O20.5 pts 2U / 25+ 1U / 30+ 0.5U** tomorrow.    Waiting on FD as DK usually not as good.   

The refs literally put away their whistles in the paint today which killed Sengun.   But Green’s hot run continues as he hit 30+ on the button for all 3 alt lines so +3.5U for the good guys tonight.  

Edited by Broncofan
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Similar theme but a game where I don’t worry about blowout I’m going Brandon Miller O22.5 pts 2U FD / 30+ +400 1U / 35+ +1000 0.5U @ TOR - Raps 7 pt faves going on the road (lol) & post trade their D is nowhere close to same esp vs SG.

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1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Similar theme but a game where I don’t worry about blowout I’m going Brandon Miller O22.5 pts 2U FD / 30+ +400 1U / 35+ +1000 0.5U @ TOR - Raps 7 pt faves (lol) & post trade their D is nowhere close to same esp vs SG.

Keegan Murray is a guy I'm looking at vs Detroit. It probably will be a blowout but I think they'll run the offense through Murray quite a bit..  similar to the Charlotte game last month

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3 minutes ago, adamq said:

Keegan Murray is a guy I'm looking at vs Detroit. It probably will be a blowout but I think they'll run the offense through Murray quite a bit..  similar to the Charlotte game last month

My issue is if you think it's a blowout, it really drops the ceiling for alt lines a lot. 

I defer to your call on Murray, I literally only follow about 3-4 teams (Rockets, Raptors <living in Canada>, and of late, Charlotte & Indy, simply because of how they generate so many points).    I only dabble in NBA props as a result, but with HOU, I have a pretty good feel of how they are doing and who they are using.   

Cam Whitmore is definitely a guy who presents leverage opps as long as FVV is out.    He's a scoring machine, he really just needs enough PT to get his shots (much like Cam Thomas' 40+ pt barrage last year).   It won't last, but I'm definitely most interested in him vs. TOR on Friday, given both FVV is out, and the potential for a blowout. 

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43 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

My issue is if you think it's a blowout, it really drops the ceiling for alt lines a lot. 

Good point, 20+ is where I went with it. But to be honest this is about the time I really start paying attention to the NBA each year, so I'm still getting a feel for teams this season. Do not recommend tailing me.. at least until the playoffs roll around 😉

Miami and Indy are the two I watch the most, and Sac always plays late so I keep an eye on them. 

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BTW one of the reasons why I bet more on hoops around this time of year isn’t because football is almost done -  it’s that the post-trade landscape creates leverage spots for about 2-3 weeks afterwards.   Mikael Bridges going to NJ is one example.   And it’s not always who’s moved it’s who moves up in the rotation / who gets more shots as a result. 


I’m not invested enough to really ID those targets ahead of time but more so ppl realize this is a good time to pay attention.  

Edited by Broncofan
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Man that was painful.   Miller gets  17 shots after going 20+ since Rozier out.   And 1 shot last 5 mins left (until meaningless last possession) with game on the line.   
Oh well.  

One notable point - Scottie Barnes was put on Miller.    So he takes the top player.   That and the blowout potential will have me off the Rockets props unless Cam Whitmore comes in very low on Friday.   Sat @ ATL though is a different story.   

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It's a Huerter kinda night, and I underestimated what Monk has been doing off the bench.. he's never met a shot he didn't like 😂

Edit_ yeah, Monk had the game I thought Murray was set up for- except he took even more shots, just awfully inefficient 

 

I did go in on Wiggins (15+ was +200) before tipoff and he had a really good game. I don't think they are going to trade him. TBH if anyone goes it should be Klay.. 

Edited by adamq
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Had to hop over to Illinois for my Gatorade bet, clear/water at +1100 on MGM

CMC first carry to the right +205

Coin flip- Tails

Purdy anytime td +850

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On 2/7/2024 at 1:30 PM, Broncofan said:

BTW one of the reasons why I bet more on hoops around this time of year isn’t because football is almost done -  it’s that the post-trade landscape creates leverage spots for about 2-3 weeks afterwards.   Mikael Bridges going to NJ is one example.   And it’s not always who’s moved it’s who moves up in the rotation / who gets more shots as a result. 


I’m not invested enough to really ID those targets ahead of time but more so ppl realize this is a good time to pay attention.  

Putting this to the test right away tonight.  
 

Spencer Dinwiddie got traded away.    He’s a massive reason that limits Mikal Bridges as he’s a ball hog PG.   Ben Simmons takes over as PG and he never looks to score.    So taking **Mikal Bridges o24.5 pts 2U / 30+ +250 1U / 35+ +700 0.5U FD vs. CLE** tonight.

Edited by Broncofan
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