Broncofan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 hours ago, Broncofan said: Putting this to the test right away tonight. Spencer Dinwiddie got traded away. He’s a massive reason that limits Mikal Bridges as he’s a ball hog PG. Ben Simmons takes over as PG and he never looks to score. So taking **Mikal Bridges o24.5 pts 2U / 30+ +250 1U / 35+ +700 0.5U FD vs. CLE** tonight. It definitely worked - Bridges got 24 shots. He got to 26...but then got pulled with 7 mins to go in the 4Q with the Nets down 20+. 18 at the half, but a 20-0 first 6 mins of the 3Q (yes you read that right) absolutely killed his path to 30/35. But the opps were definitely there. Will take the +0.5U profit, but a missed opp to really cash in. Oh well, that's gambling. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) Joe mother $&#*ing Flacco wins CPOTY. I got him at 100-1 odds, sooo just now ordered an autographed Patrick Willis jersey to celebrate the night. Thanks Joe Edit.. Lamar MVP +800 and +600 as well... rolled over some of that into the Phoenix Suns to win the Finals at +1600.. I also have Kawhi to win MVP at +15000 from a week or so ago (thanks to Sam Vecenie.. read his stuff and listen to his podcast) It's at +2900 now! 😂 Edited February 9 by adamq 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) Well they posted insanely low numbers on him so I’m going Jalen Green O19.5 pts 2U / 25+ +250 1U / 30+ +700 FD @ TOR. Also HOU ML +125 DK 2U. Pray the rockets win by 10+ but not a blowout lol Edited February 9 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) On 2/5/2024 at 7:13 PM, Broncofan said: Over 85 percent of public $ is on KC by all accounts. The only logical conclusion is that books are making a stand. FWIW books are still making a stand - but the liability with SB futures did have KC as a bigger risk to the books early on. Books are still backing the 49ers but the gap likely isn’t as wide because of said SB futures. Edited February 9 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) I decided to wait and just bet the 49ers live if they go down a score or two.. if they somehow just win wire to wire and never give me a chance to get even odds, I'd be totally OK with it 🤣 Added Jauan Jennings o15.5 yards 💸 Edited February 9 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Someone in my group text thread mentioned 49ers to attempt a 2pt conversion at +375. Feels like a sucker bet but that just means I'm their target demographic on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Draftkings Pick 6 is running a promo with a free $10 bet for the Super Bowl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) My final card additions: ATS/ML SF ML -115 Bodog 2U - I really thought with all the public money coming in, the line would drop to KC faves, but I'll still go with my original pick. PLAYER PROP UPDATES Well, going early on Jan 29 (Monday) AM pays off for the player props: Isaiah Pacheco O66.5 rush yds FD - now 67.5, although DK matches at 66.5 as well Travis Kelce O66.5 rec yds FD - now 72.5 (lol), although DK better at 69.5 Rashee Rice O65.5 rec yds DK - now 68.5, although FD better at 67.5 Deebo Samuel O55.5 rec yds DK - now 58.5 at all sites CMC O31.5 rec yds FD - now 33.5 at all sites George Kittle O49.5 rec yds DK - now 50.5, although FD matches at 49.5 as well Brock Purdy O10.5 rush yds DK - now 11.5, FD 12.5. LONGSHOT TD UPDATES Along with Noah Gray / Kyle Juscszyk & Mecole Hardman (added on THU), I have 2 more now (although 1 I'm waiting on right to SUN afternoon given it's on the rise with FD): Noah Gray +1000 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. SF - sadly MVS is down to +600, so I'm going to wait (I'd love to see +800). Gray is the only usual KC suspect whose number appeals right away. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Marques Valdes-Scantling +700 FD / +8000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD vs. SF (WILL WAIT UNTIL SUN PM) - this has been at +550 all week long, then finally moved up. If it gets to +800 / +10000 2+ on FD, I'll pounce...but I'm willing to wait given the trend...for now. NEW ADDED THU PM - Mecole Hardman +1600 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. SF - I originally thought this might go up from the +1700 I posted on Thu afternoon, but then it went down to +1500, and briefly returned to +1600, so I took it then. It's now at +1300, so even a late surge isn't likely to hit +1700 again. Kyle Jusczyk +1300 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ KC - Juice was THAT close to scoring vs. DET, I expect at least 1-2 touches in the RZ again. Worth the play. NEW ADDED SUN AM - Elijah Mitchell +1100 FD/DK / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - call it my 0.5U hedge against a CMC injury. I know CMC's had 2 weeks to recover from his calf strain that he played through, but being the last game, at these odds (it's +600 on Bodog, as a contrast), have to take the final stab. So that's 3U with 5 TD plays. That wraps up a profitable year, even if it didn't get to the 200U+ heights we've enjoyed the past 3 years. Full card with alt lines listed in OG link below on page 422 - BOL! WEEK 21 FINAL ATS/ML: 49-44-1, +7.8U (WK 21 - 1-1, even) PLAYER PROPS: 169-164, +110.5U (WK 21 - 5-4, -7.2U ) LONGSHOT TD: 46-293, +52.8U (WK 21 - 0-8, -4.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950; WK17 - J-Johnson +550, J-Browning +1100, C-Kolar +1500, J-Love +950 & J-Mundt +1100; WK18 K-Miller +400; WK19 - B-Jordan +800 & T-Atwell +1000 & D-Johnson +500 & C-Austin +2000) TOTAL - +171.1U (WK1: +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U; WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 - +23.3U; WK18 -9.4U; WK19 - +10.3U; WK20 - -0.7U; WK21 - -11.2U; 1589U stake so far) Edited February 11 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 hours ago, Broncofan said: My final card additions: ATS/ML SF ML -115 Bodog 2U - I really thought with all the public money coming in, the line would drop to KC faves, but I'll still go with my original pick. PLAYER PROP UPDATES Well, going early pays off for the player props: Isaiah Pacheco O66.5 rush yds FD - now 67.5, although DK matches at 66.5 as well Travis Kelce O66.5 rec yds FD - now 72.5 (lol), although DK better at 69.5 Rashee Rice O65.5 rec yds DK - now 68.5, although FD better at 67.5 Deebo Samuel O55.5 rec yds DK - now 58.5 at all sites CMC O31.5 rec yds FD - now 33.5 at all sites George Kittle O49.5 rec yds DK - now 50.5, although FD matches at 49.5 as well Brock Purdy O10.5 rush yds DK - now 11.5, FD 12.5. LONGSHOT TD UPDATES Along with Noah Gray / Kyle Juscszyk & Mecole Hardman (added on THU), I have 2 more now (although 1 I'm waiting on right to SUN afternoon given it's on the rise with FD): Noah Gray +1000 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. SF - sadly MVS is down to +600, so I'm going to wait (I'd love to see +800). Gray is the only usual KC suspect whose number appeals right away. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Marques Valdes-Scantling +700 FD / +8000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD vs. SF (WILL WAIT UNTIL SUN PM) - this has been at +550 all week long, then finally moved up. If it gets to +800 / +10000 2+ on FD, I'll pounce...but I'm willing to wait given the trend...for now. NEW ADDED THU PM - Mecole Hardman +1600 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. SF - I originally thought this might go up from the +1700 I posted on Thu afternoon, but then it went down to +1500, and briefly returned to +1600, so I took it then. It's now at +1300, so even a late surge isn't likely to hit +1700 again. Kyle Jusczyk +1300 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ KC - Juice was THAT close to scoring vs. DET, I expect at least 1-2 touches in the RZ again. Worth the play. NEW ADDED SUN AM - Elijah Mitchell +1100 FD/DK / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - call it my 0.5U hedge against a CMC injury. I know CMC's had 2 weeks to recover from his calf strain that he played through, but being the last game, at these odds (it's +600 on Bodog, as a contrast), have to take the final stab. So that's 3U with 5 TD plays. That wraps up a profitable year, even if it didn't get to the 200U+ heights we've enjoyed the past 3 years. Full card with alt lines listed in OG link below on page 422 - BOL! WEEK 21 FINAL ATS/ML: 49-44-1, +7.8U (WK 21 - 1-1, even) PLAYER PROPS: 169-164, +110.5U (WK 21 - 5-4, -7.2U ) LONGSHOT TD: 46-293, +52.8U (WK 21 - 0-8, -4.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950; WK17 - J-Johnson +550, J-Browning +1100, C-Kolar +1500, J-Love +950 & J-Mundt +1100; WK18 K-Miller +400; WK19 - B-Jordan +800 & T-Atwell +1000 & D-Johnson +500 & C-Austin +2000) TOTAL - +171.1U (WK1: +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U; WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 - +23.3U; WK18 -9.4U; WK19 - +10.3U; WK20 - -0.7U; WK21 - -11.2U; 1589U stake so far) Where the heck did you get those Kelce rec yards and CMC rec yard lines? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) Added Charlie Woerner to score +3700. He only played 10/11 snaps in the 2 playoff games so far, but he has been a part of some RZ packages and an option. Just crazy odds, and it's the last game of the season so f it Edited February 11 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 44 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Where the heck did you get those Kelce rec yards and CMC rec yard lines? Well those were lines from last Monday AM (Jan 29) when the books opened player props (originally posted on page 422 - note the timestamp). Taking opening lines for player prop overs has been profitable with closing line value (CLV) at least 85-90 percent of the time. SB with 2 weeks was definitely going to go that way given the public’s preference for overs. Edited February 11 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Well MVS cratered to +550 / +6000 on FD - but he's still +650 / +8000 2+ DK, so I went there. 1 final add for player props and 2 YOLO plays for the TD crowd: PLAYER PROP ADDITION NEW ADDED SUN PM - Kyle Jusczyk O4.5 rec yds FD (DK - O3.5 -140) 1.5U, 25+ rec yds +650 0.5U FD @ KC - we know KC gives up RB catches & yards, and we know Juice likes to run flat / wheel routes. So a pretty decent late add. So that's 24U with 8 player props. LONGSHOT TD ADDITIONS NEW ADDED SUN PM - Justin Watson +700 FD / +8000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. SF - along with Rice & MVS, the other RZ WR target. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Juan Jennings +800 FD / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ KC - doesn't get the volume, but might have the best matchup vs. the KC CB's. That makes it 4U in 7 player props, definitely enough, and 30U to wrap up the card. BOL everyone! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 hours ago, Broncofan said: Well those were lines from last Monday AM (Jan 29) when the books opened player props (originally posted on page 422 - note the timestamp). Taking opening lines for player prop overs has been profitable with closing line value (CLV) at least 85-90 percent of the time. SB with 2 weeks was definitely going to go that way given the public’s preference for overs. But what book? I also was looking Monday morning and never saw either line that low on my 7 books Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 56 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: But what book? I also was looking Monday morning and never saw either line that low on my 7 books I cited the books - FD / DK lines opened after midnight on Monday. The others weren’t up until 9-10 hours later. Pays to stay up late lol. PS - I guess we lose the hour timestamp on our posts after a while. The OG post on page 422 doesn’t show it anymore I guess but when I said Monday AM it’s like 1230 AM ET. Edited February 11 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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