JaguarCrazy2832 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 13 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: All are between +110 and -115, not going to look them up individually since its 5 different books lol Patriots+14.5 & U48.5 Rams+10.5 and O43.5 Titans+11.5 & O43.5 in Jax/Mia Buccs ML & O36.5 Raiders+8 & U48.5 Cardinals +10.5 & O39.5 Steelers+9 & U48.5 Jaguars and Dolphins to each Score 9 1H points Man the Raiders got me. Overall a great day with some boosts and whatnot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Player props were an absolute disaster today....and while I feel pretty bad, as it was the worst 1-week performance ever - I'll tally it up after MNF - this simple stat illustrates why: Basically, outside of MIA & TAM (and of course GB-PHI & KC), the pass O's were pretty abysmal for props. Definitely going to scale back for Week 2, as there isn't as much room for alt lines to hit if overall pass game success is down. Ugh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Ramster Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 That cowboys was so easy. Sucks 80% sold the parlay. Cincy man wth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 (edited) For tomorrow, 4 plays: ATS/ML SF -2.5 +110 2U (with DK MNF 50-percent boost) - Rather than have to deal with the SF -4 line that's floating around, I'll take the 50-percent DK MNF boost and go with SF -2.5. I could get greedy and take SF -4 for +140 with the same 50 percent boost, but I'm going to lick my wounds here, and make sure a tie-game that SF wins with a FG doesn't get me on the hook. Overall, I don't recommend shaving points, but after a week like this one, there's always time for an exception. With A-Rod having skipped the entire preseason, I have to go with the 49ers, who also benefit by having Hassan Reddick continue his holdout. PLAYER PROPS George Kittle O42.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +210 1U, 80+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. NYJ - with Sauce Gardner & DJ Reed as the top 2 CB's, and with Aiyuk on a pitch count and CMC getting over calf/Achilles tightness (chronic issue, not a new one, why they managed his practice reps), this *should* be a Kittle game. There is the risk Kittle is asked to block a lot, but that's reduced with the news Trent Williams is expected to play the full game. Breece Hall O25.5 rec yds 2U DK, 40+ rec yds +210 1U DK, 60+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK @ SF - with no Greenlaw at ILB for SF, it's a lot easier for RB's to work against SF's D, which gave up over 5 catches a game to RB's last year. I know Garrett Wilson will get his looks too, but if I think SF is winning, I'm also into more catchup pass work for Breece. ADDED SEPT 9 AFTERNOON - Tyler Conklin O28.5 rec yds 2U DK, 43+ rec yds +210 1U DK, 58+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ SF - didn't realize S Hufanga is out. Along with Greenlaw, that really opens things up for the TE's - when Hufanga wasn't there, TE's got 45+ yards in 7 of the 9 games (and one of them was Wk18, the other was Sam Howell's WAS nightmare game where SF was in his sink the entire game). TD PROPS Nothing really stands out right now, Jordan Mason at +800 is intriguing on DK, but I'm also willing to wait to see if that line will go up just before the game starts on FD, too. NGL, Week 1 was a bloodbath no matter how this goes, so just looking to get back on track with a profitable MNF, so we can head into Week 2 with some minor momentum. Edited September 9 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 you know draft kings did good when they're returning a happy hour boost bc puka nakua got injured I've never seen then do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 For Week 2, if you think GB is going to struggle hard vs. IND's run-based O (GB was decent for 2+ quarters, then wore down over the game and Barkley went nuts in 2H), and Malik Willis / Sean Clifford (confirmed to be 1 of the 2 for Wk2) as the starter by Pellisaro yesterday), then IND-3 won't last for long. I dove in for 2U on FD, it's already -3.5 on DK now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 3rd player prop for MNF: ADDED SEPT 9 AFTERNOON - Tyler Conklin O28.5 rec yds 2U DK, 43+ rec yds +210 1U DK, 58+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ SF - didn't realize S Hufanga is out. Along with Greenlaw, that really opens things up for the TE's - when Hufanga wasn't there, TE's got 45+ yards in 7 of the 9 games (and one of them was Wk18, the other was Sam Howell's WAS nightmare game where SF was in his sink the entire game). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 (edited) On 9/7/2024 at 9:21 AM, adamq said: I like hunter Henry to score +500.. he should be their number 1 target, not any of these receivers. He was great last year until the injuries started popping up, so might as well run it back while they claim he's healthy Diontae Johnson alt receptions, up to 8.. Canales has said they will look to DJ early & often this season, I'm going to believe him. We saw the numbers Adam Thielen put up with rookie Bryce Young last year, Johnson should have no problem soaking up targets on little slants and curls Finally, starting WR Mack Hollins to score a TD +1100 on Hard Rock. Its week 1 and the vibes are strong. Disappointed. Mack saved my day, but I had a little .25u parlay with Hollins/Henry that would have been a very nice win. Also sprinkled $10 on Hollins for 2TDs at +8500, but oh well Edited September 9 by adamq 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 15 hours ago, Broncofan said: For tomorrow, 4 plays: ATS/ML SF -2.5 +110 2U (with DK MNF 50-percent boost) - Rather than have to deal with the SF -4 line that's floating around, I'll take the 50-percent DK MNF boost and go with SF -2.5. I could get greedy and take SF -4 for +140 with the same 50 percent boost, but I'm going to lick my wounds here, and make sure a tie-game that SF wins with a FG doesn't get me on the hook. Overall, I don't recommend shaving points, but after a week like this one, there's always time for an exception. With A-Rod having skipped the entire preseason, I have to go with the 49ers, who also benefit by having Hassan Reddick continue his holdout. PLAYER PROPS George Kittle O42.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +210 1U, 80+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. NYJ - with Sauce Gardner & DJ Reed as the top 2 CB's, and with Aiyuk on a pitch count and CMC getting over calf/Achilles tightness (chronic issue, not a new one, why they managed his practice reps), this *should* be a Kittle game. There is the risk Kittle is asked to block a lot, but that's reduced with the news Trent Williams is expected to play the full game. Breece Hall O25.5 rec yds 2U DK, 40+ rec yds +210 1U DK, 60+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK @ SF - with no Greenlaw at ILB for SF, it's a lot easier for RB's to work against SF's D, which gave up over 5 catches a game to RB's last year. I know Garrett Wilson will get his looks too, but if I think SF is winning, I'm also into more catchup pass work for Breece. ADDED SEPT 9 AFTERNOON - Tyler Conklin O28.5 rec yds 2U DK, 43+ rec yds +210 1U DK, 58+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ SF - didn't realize S Hufanga is out. Along with Greenlaw, that really opens things up for the TE's - when Hufanga wasn't there, TE's got 45+ yards in 7 of the 9 games (and one of them was Wk18, the other was Sam Howell's WAS nightmare game where SF was in his sink the entire game). TD PROPS Nothing really stands out right now, Jordan Mason at +800 is intriguing on DK, but I'm also willing to wait to see if that line will go up just before the game starts on FD, too. NGL, Week 1 was a bloodbath no matter how this goes, so just looking to get back on track with a profitable MNF, so we can head into Week 2 with some minor momentum. We are in lockstep here to a degree, but I have two additions: Give me Kittle longest rec over 18.5 Give me Breece hall over rushing 65 Kittle is the 2nd best deep threat on the team outside of Aiyuk, and when he gets a lot of yards, he tends to have at least one deep rec. Saleh plays things pretty straight up and I expect Kittle to cross up their secondary at some point. Niners run D is going to be bad. Lots of turnover on the DL, and horrible horrible horrible LBs outside of warner. Breece will break a long run, I am certain of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 43 minutes ago, N4L said: We are in lockstep here to a degree, but I have two additions: Give me Kittle longest rec over 18.5 Give me Breece hall over rushing 65 Kittle is the 2nd best deep threat on the team outside of Aiyuk, and when he gets a lot of yards, he tends to have at least one deep rec. Saleh plays things pretty straight up and I expect Kittle to cross up their secondary at some point. Niners run D is going to be bad. Lots of turnover on the DL, and horrible horrible horrible LBs outside of warner. Breece will break a long run, I am certain of it. Hmm I was wondering about that lol. I’m a little over leveraged on Breece rec yds. NGL with my week 1 luck Breece will go nuts on rush yds and they don’t use him in pass game. My hope is A-Rod’s rust / limited mobility allow SF to load the box and keep Breece in check long enough to take the load and push NYJ into the short pass game lol. Re: Kittle because I’m taking the alt lines I’m overlapping with your big play prop. I do like it though. I’m going to add Jordan Mason TD +850 DK / +10000 2+ Bodog for a 0.4U / 0.1U half stake play. The trend to rush game TD the typical backup gets +400 to +500 odds. With a long season and no need to go for records I think there’s value with Mason’s line as the clear 2nd guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 (edited) 2 hours ago, Broncofan said: I’m going to add Jordan Mason TD +850 DK / +10000 2+ Bodog for a 0.4U / 0.1U half stake play. The trend to rush game TD the typical backup gets +400 to +500 odds. With a long season and no need to go for records I think there’s value with Mason’s line as the clear 2nd guy. OMG CMC out. If there was ever a time for Mason to score please let it be now. I got a 2nd half-unit play in with the breaking news. PLEASE MASON lol. Edited September 9 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 I'm so dumb I was shopping books for mason bc I could only find it at +650 and then I got the alert McCaffrey is out and boom fizzled to +140 the squeaky wheel gets the grease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 (edited) 6 hours ago, Broncofan said: OMG CMC out. If there was ever a time for Mason to score please let it be now. I got a 2nd half-unit play in with the breaking news. PLEASE MASON lol. On the one hand Mason did get a TD. So nice to get on the TD board. On the other Kittle missed by 3 yards and had plenty of opps but Purdy missed him or threw it so he couldn’t run after catch. And a bad ref spot cost Breece Hall the alt line. 7U swing on those 2. Conklin was just a bad call. The killer was Mason having a TD called back in 1H by an iffy hold call on Deebo, Mason running it to the 2 a few plays later - and then Deebo vulturing. SO close to a 20U 2-TD hit. Oh well I’ll take the near 8U profit off the 1-TD play. But SF-3 2U, Hall main prop and the full unit TD play for Mason makes for a +3.3U MNF, after the +2U SNF DET -5 crazy cover, stops the bleeding after a disaster TNF / Friday / SUN. NGL the pass game woes across the league, going to back off aggressive player props for week 2, until we see if this is just rust, or a continuing trend. WEEK 1 RECAP ATS/ML - 3-2-2, +2U - NGL, this was a fortunate outcome, as DEN backdoor'd a push, and CAR ML was a brutal, brutal pick, and CHI -4 was incredibly fortunate, as was DET -5 (but to be fair to CHI -4, I did say it was because the CHI D was amazing....just didn't think it would need THAT level of amazing lol). ARI push was unlucky, SF -3 was a breeze, and GB ML was a decent play, just didn't work out. Still, it's profit, which I'll take because OMG.... PLAYER PROPS - 4-10, -33U - that reduced output of O's just killed the player props. Conner missed by 3 yards, Kittle by 3, Ford missed by 2, Hall missed his alt line by 1, Diontae was pulled for the entire 4Q of garbage time, Flowers got 10 targets, 7 catches...and somehow missed....the list goes on, but the real take-home was the O's across the board were dreadful. Totally missed the wind problems in BUF with McBride, and backing ATL & CAR & CLE in particular, were terrible choices....so I earned those L's. Going to dial it down for WK2 until we see if this trend continues. TD PROPS - 1-12, even - (WK1 - Jordan Mason +850) - thank God for Jordan Mason, otherwise it would have been a disaster for TD's. To be fair, Hayden Hurst was missed in the EZ, and Noah Gray was stopped at the 2-yard line. I had 4 guys inactive, which limited the damage, too. Still, I've seen the TD props go dry for 3+ weeks last year, so it's good to get the first longshot out of the way. So that's a brutal -31U WK1 - and the crazy part is, I actually gained 5U back on SNF & MNF. Worst week EVER.....but at least the bleeding stopped for the last 2 games. I was sad that Mason's +10000 0.2U 2-TD didn't hit and Hall missed by 1 yd & Kittle by 3, would have made me pretty much square, but that's the risk. On to WK2, hopefully with lessons learned along the way (and a reminder to NOT go crazy on WK1 alt line props with players on new teams / bad O's). Edited September 10 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Ramster Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Bet the house on Kyren 100+ and 2 TDS. He destroys the cards. 158 rushing, 8.9 YPC 143 rushing, 7.9 YPC he goes in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Pretty great Week 1, hindsight is always 20:20 but man I wish I had bet more because I dont love the Week 2 slate for games/totals right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.