Weekly Bets Thread

[El Ramster]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

And they just lost Jonah Williams, who they can't replace with even close to similar level of play (well, Beachum isn't the worst, but it's such a downgrade).  Don't worry, you had me at hello re: LAR ML.   Just the LAR injury news probably has ppl overthinking this.

McVay has beat them with Wolford as QB. He Owns them. Love Parkison TD here as well. Kupp destroys the Cards. Expect 10+ catches and 120-140 yards. 
 

This has potential for a monster payout. 
 

Kyren

Kupp 

Parks. 

Kobie -Verse sacks. 
 

A small parlay can make you 10 bands. 

Big money to be made here

[El Ramster]

The pats, Lions and jaguars feels like a trap game. I really like the pats over the Seahawks. I feel like Tampa covers the spread if not our win. I think Watson thing is a bit over blown. They have crazy talent on that offensive end. I definitely feel the jaguars win. But it’s not a gimme like the Dallas one. I was pounding the table for that one. Dallas bolsters a crazy good D. 

[Broncofan]

OK 3 more SUN additions as DK & FD are now out with SUN TD plays for almost every game that day....

 

SUN LONGSHOT TD ADDITIONS

EARLY

NEW SEP 11 PM - Javon Baker +2500 DK (+1600 FD) / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. SEA (HIGH VOID RISK) - he was inactive Wk1, so this implies he was buried on the depth chart.  So why would I take these odds?  Well, by talent alone he's 1 of their 3, if not top 2 WR's.  But he posted himself getting ticketed in late August, and the Pats were REALLY unhappy.  HC Jerod Mayo would not confirm if it was disciplinary - but that's the speculation.  If it was a 1-game sit to teach him a lesson, he may in fact be active.  And if he's active, there's no guarantee he'll play, but he's one of the few separators in that group.  If he's inactive, it voids.  If he's active, I'd give him +1000 odds to score, so I kinda have to take the +2500 / +25000 2+ play, even if it's just a half-stake play.

NEW SEP 11 PM - Tre Tucker +900 DK / +12000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U - nothing's really changed, he's their 3rd WR and deep threat, plus punt returns / jet sweep.   The Shaheed yr 2 comps (including the meh O) apply, as long as it's +700 or more, hard not to take, at +900 I'll go the full unit.

 

LATE

NEW SEP 11 PM - Tanner Hudson +1200 FD / +12000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U @ KC - we literally just saw how KC gives up the short area, and lets the TE (or TE2) go if there are more important ppl to contain (BAL, it was Flowers/Andrews who got their attention).   Well, Tanner Hudson is the TE2, and CIN plays a lot of 12 formation - in fact, he outsnapped Mike Gesicki.  But while Gesicki gets sub +300 odds....Hudson gets this number.   Gotta take a stab here.

 

There are 3 other players in which the lines are out on FD, but who I think they will keep getting longer, so I'm holding off for now.   If I see signs they are decreasing, I'll post ASAP.   That brings me up to 6U with 7 players, but 2.5U are very much at risk of voiding (Noah Brown, Javonte Baker & Donald Parham), so it may be 3.5U with 4 players locked in.   Either way, that's enough for now. 

 

As always, I'll keep all the plays on 1 post and link it on new posts....BOL!
 

 

Edited Thursday at 03:22 AM by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

For MNF, along with PHI -6.5 I'm adding 2 player props and 1 TD prop right now:

WEEK 2 MNF

ATS/ML

PHI - 6.5 - covered before

 

PLAYER PROPS

Devonta Smith O60.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +210 1U DK vs. ATL (SEPT 16 - O75.5 is the line...lol)- ATL is top 5 in yards given up to slot receivers, and while AJ Terrell got abused by George Pickens (relatively speaking), for PHI this figures to be the path of least resistance with Devonta.   I'm confident this line will go up by 5+ yards by game time, so locking it in now.

Bijan Robinson O27.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +330 1U DK @ PHI (SEPT 16 - O29.5 is now the line) - with Kirk Cousins so limited mobility wise, just like last week, Bijan will be a safety valve, and a run game proxy with swing passes.  He went 5-43, and the only reason he didn't put up more pass receiving yds last year was an insane Arthur Smith splitting his time with Tyler Allgeir until the last 3+ games, when he started to show his true potential.   As much as Cousins' limited mobilty and recovery from Achilles surgery really hurts Drake London and Kyle Pitts, it makes Bijan a big beneficiary...so I have to dive in here. 

For those B365 owners, a reception ladder starting at 5 +130 would be pretty strong as well (5-6-7-8).   If ATL has any brains, they'll want to swing the ball to Bijan to get him away from Jalen Carter & Jordan Davis regularly, and let him go 1-on-1 on the PHI perimeter and ILB's.   Sadly I can't partake lol.

ADDED SEPT 16 - Saquon Barkley O75.5 rush yds 2U +125 (MNF DK 50% boost), 96+ rush yds +210 1U DK vs. ATL** - sometimes you just gotta take the square bet.    I think PHI -6.5 is winning, that means PHI is closing out the game in the 2H.   And that's a ton of Saquon.       

ADDED SEPT 16 - Drake London O55.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 57.5), 76+ rec yds +200 1U DK @ PHI** - NGL I'm pretty terrified here, but PIT's pass rush and their pass D is far better than PHI's, so I'm going with their top target.   Kyle Pitts would have been here, but I'm concerned that Kirk Cousins can't throw deep yet, and that's Pitts' main advantage.    

So that's  12U on 4 players prop wise.

 

LONGSHOT TD

Both teams are implied to score a lot, so the odds are quite low, there's only 1 play that immediately sticks out:

Ray-Ray Mcleod +650 DK / +9000 2+ 0.5U (DK SWEAT-FREE OFFER) / 0.1U @ PHI - to be clear, he's not this great talent.   But he's the short outlet read in ATL's O (Mooney runs clearout patterns a lot, London being the alpha, and Pitts at TE).  To be clear, Mcleod is their #3 WR, and in a game I see PHI leading, he'll get his snaps (got 54% last week, almost all pass downs).   Because DK is offering a sweat-free promotion for TD props, I'll bump it to 0.5U from the usual 0.4U/0.1U play.   FD has him at +430, which I think is about right, and why I was on the fence for a play, but DK's Sweat-Free offer makes me YOLO a bit  

 

Added Sept 16 - Charlie Woerner +2000 DK 0.4U / +25000 2+ TheScore (+20000 2+ DK) 0.1U**  & **Grant Calcaterra +1800 TheScore / +40000 2+ TheScore** (+1400 / +10000 2+ DK) - both play 12 formation as 2nd TE for ATL, 45 percent snaps.   Yolo play

So with a total stake at 14.5U, I've got plenty of exposure lol.  BOL!

Edited yesterday at 06:08 PM by Broncofan

[adamq]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

NEW SEP 11 PM - Tanner Hudson +900 / +12000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U @ KC -

Hudson is +1200 on fd right now 

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, adamq said:

Hudson is +1200 on fd right now 

Thx I forgot to amend that, I was typing this up when I looked at FD, but forgot it was DK first.   Obv get the best price lol.  Def the best value for snap share / RZ opportunity this week, given how KC lets the short area guys thrive.  Wild that Gesicki in low 300's or lower and Hudson is +900 to +1200.   Fingers crossed.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

8 hours ago, El Ramster said:

The pats, Lions and jaguars feels like a trap game. I really like the pats over the Seahawks. I feel like Tampa covers the spread if not our win. I think Watson thing is a bit over blown. They have crazy talent on that offensive end. I definitely feel the jaguars win. But it’s not a gimme like the Dallas one. I was pounding the table for that one. Dallas bolsters a crazy good D. 

I do like TB with the hook

Pats i can understand the thought, Seattle coming cross-country and all but man arent the Patriots going to be fat and happy after a massive upset W?

Not sure if anyone is buying the Jaguars enough to call it a trap. Its a 3-3.5 pt spread favoring the home team, i suppose Watson feels like an auto-fade though. 

[El Ramster]

11 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I do like TB with the hook

Pats i can understand the thought, Seattle coming cross-country and all but man arent the Patriots going to be fat and happy after a massive upset W?

Not sure if anyone is buying the Jaguars enough to call it a trap. Its a 3-3.5 pt spread favoring the home team, i suppose Watson feels like an auto-fade though. 

There’s no team that confuses you more than the Hawks. They’ll beat the lions one week and lose to the panthers the other. They’re crazy in that way. I just feel like the pats have momentum.. Mayo being a BB player knows not to get too high. 

[thebestever6]

As regards to Baker Mayfield are we more sold that he's that good or are we more sold that Washington's D is that bad. I think I'm more sold that Washington's D is that bad think Danny Dimes has a career week this week.

[SmittyBacall]

The Isiah Pacheco rushing lines aren't released yet, but if it's anywhere near 75 yards I will be smashing the over. We cannot stop the run and it's going to be exploited all year. 

[El Ramster]

2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

The Isiah Pacheco rushing lines aren't released yet, but if it's anywhere near 75 yards I will be smashing the over. We cannot stop the run and it's going to be exploited all year. 

Should be 55.. nothing crazy. 

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

The Isiah Pacheco rushing lines aren't released yet, but if it's anywhere near 75 yards I will be smashing the over. We cannot stop the run and it's going to be exploited all year. 

It's 66.5 on DK, and yes I took the over.     Rice as well (sorry lol).

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

As regards to Baker Mayfield are we more sold that he's that good or are we more sold that Washington's D is that bad. I think I'm more sold that Washington's D is that bad think Danny Dimes has a career week this week.

I'm sold that the OL is protecting him, and his WR's are still good.   Plus White is a great safety valve.   If you have to make him beat you on his own, not convinced he can do it.  But you give him guys who run to the right spots on-time, and an OL that protects him, he's always been able to throw to spots and play in-rhythm.   If you can protect against batted balls inside, then it's the ideal setup for him. 

It's ironic that CLE would kill to have Baker's current level of play.  

 

But yes WAS's D is bad.   There's a reason I've taken Wandale Robinson  props even with Danny Dimes as the QB.    In a TO-neutral game....I think the G-men win.    I'm just not sure it will be TO-neutral lol.

Edited Thursday at 05:04 PM by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK so I took some props early this AM, and got busy at work...and OMG did some of them explode.   Here we go...

 

WEEK 2 PLAYER PROP ADDITIONS

 

TNF

Khalil Shakir O40.5 rec yds 2U / 59+ rec yds +210 1U / 77+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ MIA - reports that Jalen Ramsey is working through a thigh issue now seems to make travelling to slot less likely, so I'm willing to take Shakir here.   MIA's slot CB is a hot mess (along with WAS' - why I'm going with Wandale Robinson there). 

 

SUN EARLY

ADDED SEPT 12 - Rasheed Shaheed O36.5 rec yds 2U / 51+ rec yds +210 1U / 68+ rec yd +500 0.5U @ DAL - he gets the 2nd DAL CB Caelen Carson, so while there's risk that Carr will fold with DAL's pressure, that matchup is too good to pass up.   He could hit all 3 lines with 1 play. 

ADDED SEPT 12 - Alvin Kamara O4.5 receptions 2U +100 (B365 - consider the 6-7-8 ladder 1U & 0.5U x2) - when Carr faces heavy pressure - Kamara's work goes way up.   If I had the reception ladder, I'd take it for sure.   Kamara's lack of efficiency per touch is why I can't take the yardage anymore for ladders, but the catch props are tasty - if you can get them.  FD's wasn't quite enough for me to bite, but I'm sure B365 players will get better lines.

ADDED SEPT 12 - JK Dobbins O50.5 rush yds (NOW 56.5 - WOW) / 66+ rush yds +210 1U / 81+ rush yds +450 0.5U  (now  71+ +170 & 90.5 +425) @ CAR - ok, I feel bad for not posting this early.  Keep in mind Dobbins only gets 60+ percent of the snaps, as he's coming back from ACL.  But against this decimated CAR D and DT Brown on the IR?   Easy call.   At O56.5, I'd still play it, but maybe just go with the 80+ +260 line...or wait for DK to reset their ALT RUSH YDS, it's all screwed up with the sudden spike.

ADDED SEPT 12 - Rachaad White O24.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +240, 60+ rec yds +700 0.5U @ DET - I wasn't really considering this play, but I also thought the line would be in the 30's.    DET is so good at stopping the run, and figure to be leading, this is a perfect game script for White to go HAM in the pass department.    The catch ladder would be a viable play here as well, although TAM has more targets to share the work this year.  

 

 

 

LATE

ADDED SEPT 12 -  Demarcus Robinson O41.5 rec yds FD (DK - 42.5) 2U / 60+ rec yds +210 DK 1U / 80+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ ARI - with Puka Nacua out for a while, we get D-Rob back as a top 2 receiver.  And when he got a 80+ percent snap share (5x last year) - he went past the main line each time, and then went 80+ on 2/5 games.   ARI generated the worst pressure rates last week - so even with all the OL injuries, I'm happy to take both the LAR ML, and go with D-Rob here. 

 

ADDED SEPT 12 - Trey McBride O49.5 rec yds DK 2U / 69+ rec yds +210 1U DK @ / 90+ rec yds +550 0.5U vs. LAR - yes, he didn't quite get to 50 yds last week.  But it was a gale-force wind game, and Kyler was awful, as McBride had 9 targets (and Kyler missed him at least 3x open), and a 30% target share.   You give me this same prop, I'll go again.

ADDED SEPT 12 - Isaiah Pacheco O64.5 rush yds DK 2U / 85+ rush yds +210 1U (now 90+ +250) DK vs. CIN - Rhamondre Stephenson running for 130+ on CIN last week was just as much an indictment of CIN's run D as it was on Rhamondre's resurgence. Now you give me another alpha dog with a great interior OL with Pacheco?  Easy play.  Given the total is high, I'll go with only 1 alt line.

ADDED SEPT 12 - Rashee Rice O66.5 rec yds 2U / 87+ rec yds +210 1U DK vs. CIN - on the flip side of the KC O, Rice is becoming the alpha of the group, and it fits with CIN's other weakness - defending the short-intermediate middle, ever since Jesse Bates left, they're not the same here.   Again with the high starting line, taking 1 alt line.

 

PIT's rush lines aren't out yet, while they wait to see if Justin Fields or Russell Wilson starts, I'm definitely interested to go there with Najee Harris taking over more the of RB run work.   I'm also curious to see where Tre' Tucker ends up prop-wise, if it's still low teens, I'm in again.     With Wandale Robinson rec yds (catch ladder would have been viable too if you have B365),  Tony Pollard rush yds & Brian Robinson rush yds, that's 36U with 11 players.     Outside of Harris/Tucker, that's more than enough for a SUN slate.     Given the trend to less pass yardage and more running overall, ppl shouldn't be surprised to see me go with 6 RB's (albeit 2 for receiving props), 4 WR's (only Rice at a high # main line), and 1 TE (my boy McBride, but the metrics and matchup back me up).  


LONGSHOT TD ADDITIONS

 

EARLY

ADDED SEPT 12 - Kimani Vidal +1900 DK / +30000 2+ TheScore (DK - +20000) 0.4U / 0.1U (HIGH VOID RISK) - he was inactive last week, but in the preseason he was definitely their most effective runner.   3rd RB Haskins is on the injury report, and Gus Edwards looked stuck in mud.   If he's inactive, this voids - but I can see a very real scenario where. he's active.   If he's active, CAR's D is so bad, we could see garbage time.   There's enough of a chance Edwards' poor play and Haskins injury can create the activation scenario, and at those numbers, I have to take a half-stake shot

 

 

LATE

Jordan Whittington +900 FD (+600 DK) 0.8U / 2-TD not taken (DK +6500 2+) @ ARI 0.2U - I'm shocked ppl don't realize that Whittington has a real shot to be in RZ package plays.  He scored the TD that was called back by holding in the 4Q.   Don't get me wrong, I know D-Rob is the WR2 and Tyler Johnson is the WR3, but Whittington's size and speed make him a RZ target, especially with no Tyler Higbee.   I'm waiting to see if TheScore or Bodog will post a better line than DK's +600 / +6500. 

Mycole Pruitt +1900 TheScore (+1400 FD) / +30000 2+ TheScore (not posted anywhere else, DK doesn't have him) 0.4U / 0.1U @ DEN 0.4U / 0.1U - PIT played with 3 or 4 TE's on 22 percent of the plays, and 2-TE even more.  Arthur Smith LOVES to use this guy as a gadget RZ guy, he's had 3-4 TD's in the past 2 years even though Kyle Pitts was there.   So at those numbers, and DEN's TE-vulnerable D, I'm going there, albeit only for a half-stake, given how little PIT needs to throw the ball in general.

Roman Wilson +800 DK  (FD - +750) / +13000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U (HIGH VOID RISK) - he's just returned to practice, but he was drafted to be their 2nd outside WR.   As such, I have to take a small half-stake stab, realizing he may be inactive.  If he's not, he gets the FAR easier WR matchup vs. DEN with PS2 almost certainly going to shadow George Pickens. 

 

There's 1 more longshot play for SNF, but he's not on anyone's lists, because he's a practice squad player.   I'll post it when it comes.     Along with PIT RB props and maybe Tre Tucker, that's pretty much it - a very full card.   Let's hope we can get more TD's, and make some $ back with the player props with a much heavier emphasis on RB's, short-pass game and great matchups.  BOL!

 

 

 

Edited Friday at 12:43 AM by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Chargers down to -4.5, man that feels too easy. I wanna smash it but that feels so sketchy