Which game will be closer? New Orleans/Vikings or Patriots/Titans

[ronjon1990]

46 minutes ago, nolaexpat said:

I mean, since you put it like THAT... no?  But that sort of performance, a la FitzMagic to open last season, wouldn't shock me. Cousins plays well against the Saints in general and the media and NFL have spent the week insulting both him and Minny, basically daring them to upset us at home... so, you know. This is life as a Saints fan. I expect that a game we should win fairly easily will actually instead be quite difficult and that we might spend a considerable portion of it playing from waaaay behind like we just did in Tennessee.

We're talking about Krumbling Kirk here though....not Fitzmagic lol

Edited January 2, 2020 by ronjon1990

[sammymvpknight]

On 12/31/2019 at 1:30 PM, ronjon1990 said:

Well, to preface, I don't see them winning. That being said, looking at their regular season losses listed above a few things I would look at are:

@GB- 1 score game, Kirk hadn't found much rhythm at that point (though you're spot on regarding him not showing up for big games) but the D stepped up and held GB scoreless in the 2nd half.

@Chicago- admittedly ugly game, but all teams have them. Chicago's D isn't the best, but early on in the season, they were playing very solid D. 

@KC- last second FG. Aside from the loss, they went into halftime tied and never trailed by more than 5. 

@Seattle- led at halftime, crapped the bed in the 3rd, brought it back to within a single score, and what was a 4pt game turned into a 7pt loss by virtue of a FG with 21 seconds left. 

Three of those losses were by a combined 15 points. 

Adding in the 2nd GB loss- that too was a 1 score game without Jones breaking off a long TD run to essentially ice it. 

I won't worry too much about the 2nd Bears game as their playoff seeding was already pretty well set. 

The Vikings aren't an especially good team, but their 3 road losses to other playoff teams were still close games that they were never mathematically out of at any point. That's more of a testament to their defense, as Cousins was a combined 71/139 849 7-4. Aside from the Chiefs games, none of his single stat lines were particularly impressive. But they were still close games. 

The Saints, meanwhile, have had their troubles with run oriented teams this year. Recently, in the Dome, they gave up 48 to the 49ers. While the scores were largely Jimmy G TD passes, they were gouged by Matt Breida (9 ypc) and Raheem Mostert (6.9 ypc), which left their secondary exposed. They gave up 5.4 ypc to Dion Lewis and 28 points to the Titans. In these two games, the Saints scored a combined 86 points.

The Vikings D probably isn't going to give up a boatload of points (they haven't been for a while). In the games they have given up a good number of points, they turned into something akin to a wire to wire situation where they ultimately lost, but didn't wind up getting blown out. 

Marcus Williams, Vonn Bell, and Eli Apple are all questionable. If Bell or Williams can't go, DJ Swearinger will be playing, and take it from a Raider fan- he's garbage. If all 3 can go, to what level, with groin, knee, anke injuries respectively? How is Janoris Jenkins going to play in the scheme? 

Furthermore, the Saints are flashy, yes, but are they truly head and shoulders above the rest? What I mean by that is look at common opponents they've faced- Seattle, Dallas, Chicago.

Seattle put up 20 garbage time points to pull within 6. The game wasn't particularly in reach, but it was in large part due to a punt return and a defensive td that gave them a buffer. And they needed every bit of it at the end. 

Dallas was a 2 point game. Sure, Brees wasn't playing, so we can chalk this up to the "ugly" mulligan. 

Chicago- New Orleans went into halftime with a 2 point lead. The Bears caved in the 3rd Q into the 4th, but still managed to bring it to a respectable loss given how poorly they played. 

What I'm seeing there is the Saints winning handily when things start to snowball. That's not special, as any team wins in that position. Yet they've also had some troubles keeping the dead horse down. Across the season, a few times the Saints have gone into halftime tied (or within >6)  and played down to inferior competition in the 2nd half and allowed games to be closer than they should've been. Conversely, the Vikings have routinely stifled opposing offenses in the 2nd half of games (the Seattle game and Jones' icer notwithstanding). And the times they allowed themselves to get snowballed on are few and far between. 

So one team has a knack for allowing lesser teams to creep back into games and one has a knack for holding better teams fairly in check in the 2nd half. Couple that with a questionable secondary on one team and a run game capable of keeping a D on it's heels, and imo, you have a recipe for a much closer game than you might expect. 

Anything is possible, of course, but the "peaking" Saints have played the likes of Atlanta (1-1), Tampa (1-0) with 4 Jameis INTS, Carolina (2-0) once too closely and last week when Carolina had nothing to play for and Kyle Allen still at QB, San Francisco (0-1) in a shootout, Indianapolis (1-0) in which they snowballed and Brees had a once in a hundred year kind of game and Tennessee (1-0) with another 3rd Q snowball. I'm just not seeing where they're standing out on the whole in a way that clearly shows the Vikings don't have a shot at keeping the game close so long as they don't make stupid mistakes and Zimmer doesn't try to throw to Cousins on a trick play. 

Again, I don't think they pull off the upset. But I also don't see the Vikings getting blown out of the water early, I see no reason their D is going to magically stop being pretty solid in the 2nd half, and no reason to think the Saints are going to magically stop a true playoff caliber team from keeping the game at least respectable and likely too close for comfort.

 

Good write up. I think you have a few facts wrong, however. Since it will take me all day to comment on what we agree...I’ll just mention the points I disagree. 

The Saints are easily among the leagues best at run defense. The last time they faced a RB that put up 100 yards rushing was week 11 of 2017, when Samaje Perine put up over 100. Is that guy even in the league?

This Saints run defense is very good. Yes, they gave up a long run to both Mostert and Breida. But that’s irregular, and was likely because the Alonzo and Klein were out for the Saints, and Demario Davis was trailing Kittle in coverage almost the entire game. Davis will he focusing on stopping Cook (the Vikings don’t have Kittle) and the other LBs are back. Statistically, it’s very unlikely to happen again this week. And to say that the Saints struggled with Dion Lewis is a huge stretch.

Since Brees came back from injury...the Saints have put up the most offense points per game in the league. So to try to pretend that Brees has some kind of aberration of a game versus the Titans is comical. He’s been absolutely dominant since his return from injury. There is no reason to suspect to see a big drop off from the Saints offensively, especially considering that they’ve had difficulty containing CGM when Rhodes was actually good. CGM is now better and Rhodes is now worse, you can do the math on that one.

If the Vikings win, it will because they can create immediate pass rush on Brees, and Cousins plays out of his mind. 

The Saints are the better team, are playing better right now, and are playing a big time game in the Super Dome. The Saints should win this game and they really should win it handedly. I think that the spread is right where it should be. But again...any given Sunday. 

[ronjon1990]

38 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

The Saints are easily among the leagues best at run defense. The last time they faced a RB that put up 100 yards rushing was week 11 of 2017, when Samaje Perine put up over 100. Is that guy even in the league?

Fair points all around.

I'll counterpoint since the bowl games aren't showing here and nobody talks football lol.

It's not necessarily about giving up 100 rushing yards or not. The 49ers, for example, either of their RBs conceivably would have gone over the 100 mark if they weren't splitting up their carries as much. That's been the case in several games this year. Teams can be highly efficient running the ball, particularly to set up the pass, without having a 100 yard rusher. That's what I would pay attention to. 

With the Vikings, where I consider this relevant is that Dalvin Cook/Mattison are that kind of running back tandem that can open up the pass game a'la Coleman/Breida and Theilen, Diggs, Rudolph, and Smith are a perfectly capable set of receiving options while Anzalone is still out. The secondary isn't 100%. 

Nobody says they struggled with Dion Lews in the conventional sense. But he was effectively running and allowed Ryan Tannehill to play a very good game. Lewis isn't Coleman or Breida or Cook. Now, if you think Ryan Tannehill is really THAT good, that's totally fair. I'd wager it's more that the Titans have an offense that flows primarily through the run game, like the 49ers, Panthers, and now coming up, the Vikings.

1 hour ago, sammymvpknight said:

Since Brees came back from injury...the Saints have put up the most offense points per game in the league...

He’s been absolutely dominant since his return from injury. There is no reason to suspect to see a big drop off from the Saints offensively

Since Brees came back, they've played the 32nd (31st v pass), 20th (22nd), 15th (30th), 23rd (13th but 29th v run and 31st in points in a shootout), 2nd (1st in a shootout), 18th (23rd), and 21st (24th) in the league. Hardly a murderer's row defense wise. The only defense on that list in the top 1/2 of the league forced the Saints into shootout  like situation.

Will the Saints offense drop off dramatically? Probably not. Will they be just as effective as always? Perhaps. But you have to account for both sides of the ball. The Saints don't need a huge drop off for the Vikings to beat them. Worse D's have done a decent enough job at keeping things close, and shootouts haven't been uncommon for the Saints against lesser teams. 

 

Either way, we'll definitely find out this weekend. Til then, 🍻.

 

[RamblinMan99]

On 1/1/2020 at 1:10 PM, renndawg37 said:

Pretty sure he's completed 2136 passes in his career lol..

Jokes on you for looking up a statistic because you took a post too literally.  

[Uncle Buck]

On 12/31/2019 at 10:54 AM, Shanedorf said:

Ronjon, I enjoy your posts here at FF - you deliver some high quality insight around here. 
Take a look at the vikes road games against "good" teams this year and then tell us why they are going to be different/better at New Orleans this weekend

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/2019.htm

at Packers, lost
at bears, lost
at Chiefs, lost
at cowboys, won
at seahawks, lost

Home dome games ?

at home with division on the line, lost badly to GB -  and GB isn't as good as the Saints are
at home vs bears, lost. Meaning they got swept by both of their division rivals this year

There just isn't anything to hang your hat on vs a balanced and peaking Saints team and I didn't even mention the Cousins - Big Game meltdowns
In 2017, Zimmer and crew had a golden chance to play in their home dome for the Super Bowl, instead they got pasted 38-7 at Philly.

It may not be a huge thing, but then again, it might be that this will be the first time in many weeks the Vikings will have a fully healthy Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook on the field at the same time.  The loss (or even the diminished ability) of either player really hampers our offense.  I'm certainly not making any bold proclamations, but one thing I do believe is that with everyone healthy we have enough weapons on offense to keep up with the Saints in a shootout.  We have Dalvin Cook and a very capable backup in Alexander Mattison at the running back position.  Then there will be Stephon Diggs on one side and Adam Thielen on the other side as receivers.  Finally, we have two tight ends who are capable of making big plays as well in Kyle Rudolph and rookie Irv Smith.  If the offensive line can give Kirk Cousins some time to pass, this offense can definitely do some damage to the Saints' defense. 

Everybody needs to show up ready to play to their highest abilities, and that seems to be a question mark for the Vikings.  It happened in the Green Bay game a couple of weeks ago in Minneapolis, and on other occasions this season as well.  We will just have to see how things go, but there IS reason to believe the Vikings can win this game.  We have the firepower.

[Pugger]

On 12/31/2019 at 1:41 PM, Nozizaki said:

Maybe the fact that the most the Vikings lost any of those games by is 10 points at Soldier Field. Have the Vikings been a good road team? No. But they've kept every game competitive. The Saints have also been worse at home than on the road this season.

Badly is a strong term. While the Packers had arguably their best defensive effort of the season, the Vikings also failed to have a strong offensive gameplan. And the score was still 17-10 until Aaron Jones breaks a run aided by a questionable block. I'm not one for making excuses and the bottom line is the Vikings didn't do enough to win either game against the Packers, but neither was a "bad loss" on the score board.

In a game in which the Vikings played none of their starters, which frankly is impressive that the Vikings nearly beat the Bears starters with their backups.

The problem you had against us is your OL.  That group made our DL look like a bunch of All Pros.   If your line doesn't play any better in NO it could be along day for you guys.  

[Nozizaki]

1 hour ago, Pugger said:

The problem you had against us is your OL.  That group made our DL look like a bunch of All Pros.   If your line doesn't play any better in NO it could be along day for you guys.  

Oh I completely agree, but part of that is talent and part of that is poor gameplanning. I'm still shocked the Vikings never made the adjustment to chip with TEs and to have CJ Ham stay in on protection to block the inevitably missed rusher.

The O-Line also didn't crap the bed in at least 12 games this season, so it's more likely that they at least hold up in protection, giving up a sack or two, rather than giving Cam Jordan 3 by himself.

I just can't see the Vikings getting blown out. It is difficult to see them winning, but it is also a very compelling matchup.

[ronjon1990]

Thank God for Logan Ryan not doing the smart thing and kneeeling it. 

My vote may still come to fruition.

[Small Town Values]

Close games today. Blowouts tomorrow? 

[Nozizaki]

On 12/30/2019 at 5:39 PM, Nozizaki said:

I actually think this is a tough one to call, either road team is capable of winning. I'm inclined to say Titans, but both will be one possession type games.

I called it.

[y*so*blu]

Never would have guessed that both road teams would win. MIN@NO was closer by one point and by virtue of going into overtime, but both games were nail-biters from start to finish. What a weekend.