Which game will be closer? New Orleans/Vikings or Patriots/Titans

[ronjon1990]

14 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Ronjon, I enjoy your posts here at FF - you deliver some high quality insight around here. 
Take a look at the vikes road games against "good" teams this year and then tell us why they are going to be different/better at New Orleans this weekend

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/2019.htm

at Packers, lost
at bears, lost
at Chiefs, lost
at cowboys, won
at seahawks, lost

Home dome games ?

at home with division on the line, lost badly to GB -  and GB isn't as good as the Saints are
at home vs bears, lost. Meaning they got swept by both of their division rivals this year

There just isn't anything to hang your hat on vs a balanced and peaking Saints team and I didn't even mention the Cousins - Big Game meltdowns
In 2017, Zimmer and crew had a golden chance to play in their home dome for the Super Bowl, instead they got pasted 38-7 at Philly.

Well, to preface, I don't see them winning. That being said, looking at their regular season losses listed above a few things I would look at are:

@GB- 1 score game, Kirk hadn't found much rhythm at that point (though you're spot on regarding him not showing up for big games) but the D stepped up and held GB scoreless in the 2nd half.

@Chicago- admittedly ugly game, but all teams have them. Chicago's D isn't the best, but early on in the season, they were playing very solid D. 

@KC- last second FG. Aside from the loss, they went into halftime tied and never trailed by more than 5. 

@Seattle- led at halftime, crapped the bed in the 3rd, brought it back to within a single score, and what was a 4pt game turned into a 7pt loss by virtue of a FG with 21 seconds left. 

Three of those losses were by a combined 15 points. 

Adding in the 2nd GB loss- that too was a 1 score game without Jones breaking off a long TD run to essentially ice it. 

I won't worry too much about the 2nd Bears game as their playoff seeding was already pretty well set. 

The Vikings aren't an especially good team, but their 3 road losses to other playoff teams were still close games that they were never mathematically out of at any point. That's more of a testament to their defense, as Cousins was a combined 71/139 849 7-4. Aside from the Chiefs games, none of his single stat lines were particularly impressive. But they were still close games. 

The Saints, meanwhile, have had their troubles with run oriented teams this year. Recently, in the Dome, they gave up 48 to the 49ers. While the scores were largely Jimmy G TD passes, they were gouged by Matt Breida (9 ypc) and Raheem Mostert (6.9 ypc), which left their secondary exposed. They gave up 5.4 ypc to Dion Lewis and 28 points to the Titans. In these two games, the Saints scored a combined 86 points.

The Vikings D probably isn't going to give up a boatload of points (they haven't been for a while). In the games they have given up a good number of points, they turned into something akin to a wire to wire situation where they ultimately lost, but didn't wind up getting blown out. 

Marcus Williams, Vonn Bell, and Eli Apple are all questionable. If Bell or Williams can't go, DJ Swearinger will be playing, and take it from a Raider fan- he's garbage. If all 3 can go, to what level, with groin, knee, anke injuries respectively? How is Janoris Jenkins going to play in the scheme? 

Furthermore, the Saints are flashy, yes, but are they truly head and shoulders above the rest? What I mean by that is look at common opponents they've faced- Seattle, Dallas, Chicago.

Seattle put up 20 garbage time points to pull within 6. The game wasn't particularly in reach, but it was in large part due to a punt return and a defensive td that gave them a buffer. And they needed every bit of it at the end. 

Dallas was a 2 point game. Sure, Brees wasn't playing, so we can chalk this up to the "ugly" mulligan. 

Chicago- New Orleans went into halftime with a 2 point lead. The Bears caved in the 3rd Q into the 4th, but still managed to bring it to a respectable loss given how poorly they played. 

What I'm seeing there is the Saints winning handily when things start to snowball. That's not special, as any team wins in that position. Yet they've also had some troubles keeping the dead horse down. Across the season, a few times the Saints have gone into halftime tied (or within >6)  and played down to inferior competition in the 2nd half and allowed games to be closer than they should've been. Conversely, the Vikings have routinely stifled opposing offenses in the 2nd half of games (the Seattle game and Jones' icer notwithstanding). And the times they allowed themselves to get snowballed on are few and far between. 

So one team has a knack for allowing lesser teams to creep back into games and one has a knack for holding better teams fairly in check in the 2nd half. Couple that with a questionable secondary on one team and a run game capable of keeping a D on it's heels, and imo, you have a recipe for a much closer game than you might expect. 

Anything is possible, of course, but the "peaking" Saints have played the likes of Atlanta (1-1), Tampa (1-0) with 4 Jameis INTS, Carolina (2-0) once too closely and last week when Carolina had nothing to play for and Kyle Allen still at QB, San Francisco (0-1) in a shootout, Indianapolis (1-0) in which they snowballed and Brees had a once in a hundred year kind of game and Tennessee (1-0) with another 3rd Q snowball. I'm just not seeing where they're standing out on the whole in a way that clearly shows the Vikings don't have a shot at keeping the game close so long as they don't make stupid mistakes and Zimmer doesn't try to throw to Cousins on a trick play. 

Again, I don't think they pull off the upset. But I also don't see the Vikings getting blown out of the water early, I see no reason their D is going to magically stop being pretty solid in the 2nd half, and no reason to think the Saints are going to magically stop a true playoff caliber team from keeping the game at least respectable and likely too close for comfort.

 

[TENINCH]

1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

Ronjon, I enjoy your posts here at FF - you deliver some high quality insight around here. 
Take a look at the vikes road games against "good" teams this year and then tell us why they are going to be different/better at New Orleans this weekend

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/2019.htm

at Packers, lost
at bears, lost
at Chiefs, lost
at cowboys, won
at seahawks, lost

Home dome games ?

at home with division on the line, lost badly to GB -  and GB isn't as good as the Saints are
at home vs bears, lost. Meaning they got swept by both of their division rivals this year

There just isn't anything to hang your hat on vs a balanced and peaking Saints team and I didn't even mention the Cousins - Big Game meltdowns
In 2017, Zimmer and crew had a golden chance to play in their home dome for the Super Bowl, instead they got pasted 38-7 at Philly.

Really?

[Nozizaki]

1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

Take a look at the vikes road games against "good" teams this year and then tell us why they are going to be different/better at New Orleans this weekend

at Packers, lost
at bears, lost
at Chiefs, lost
at cowboys, won
at seahawks, lost

Maybe the fact that the most the Vikings lost any of those games by is 10 points at Soldier Field. Have the Vikings been a good road team? No. But they've kept every game competitive. The Saints have also been worse at home than on the road this season.

20 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

Home dome games ?

at home with division on the line, lost badly to GB

Badly is a strong term. While the Packers had arguably their best defensive effort of the season, the Vikings also failed to have a strong offensive gameplan. And the score was still 17-10 until Aaron Jones breaks a run aided by a questionable block. I'm not one for making excuses and the bottom line is the Vikings didn't do enough to win either game against the Packers, but neither was a "bad loss" on the score board.

1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

at home vs bears, lost. Meaning they got swept by both of their division rivals this year

In a game in which the Vikings played none of their starters, which frankly is impressive that the Vikings nearly beat the Bears starters with their backups.

[lolsurebro]

3 hours ago, ttitansfan4life said:

 On the flip side, I do think the Titans will also put up points on a Patriots defense who is as overrated as they come.

Ah, another hater in denial of facts. The Patriots defense was historic this year, even after DVOA.

[Shanedorf]

18 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Adding in the 2nd GB loss - that too was a 1 score game without Jones breaking off a long TD run to essentially ice it. 

Awesome write up, really well done. I could pick a few nits ( Seattle always comes back late, so calling them "garbage points" is questionable)

I'll push back on this comment above though. The vikes were beaten by 2 TDs at home with the division on the line.  
The vikes generated 3 early turnovers, the crowd was at full throat and they still couldn't punch it in...leading to a double digit loss.
Now they won't have the home crowd and they are facing a much more potent offense
Vegas currently has the spread above the critical 7 point margin, with the Saints - 8 and 100 % of the moneyline bet on the Saints

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/matchups/

So the only question for the NFL community revolves around minny keeping it close. I don't think they will, others feel differently
Thanks again for the in depth write-up, greatly appreciated

[Uncle Buck]

20 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I think the Pats might be able to keep their game close.   

MIN has no shot if Thielen & Cook aren't playing, and even then, it's going to be long odds.  But give them Cook, Thielen & Diggs, and then at least they have a fighter's chance.  Bisi Johnson, Laquon Treadwell & Mike Boone aren't pulling January magic out of their *ss.

Thielen, Cook and Diggs will all be playing and coming off what was kind of a bye week when we rested all the starters Week 17 against Chicago.  They should be healthy, but we will see when the game gets going for sure.

[RamblinMan99]

Kirk Cousins can't complete a pass to save his life so.......

[renndawg37]

6 hours ago, RamblinMan99 said:

Kirk Cousins can't complete a pass to save his life so.......

Pretty sure he's completed 2136 passes in his career lol..

[nolaexpat]

Part of the reason that the NFL is fun is that you just never know which teams will come out hot and which ones will come out flat and that's generally true regardless of how a team is playing. The Saints this year have kind of reverted to form. Our offense puts up points fast and we have a receiver that really can't be covered. Our defense is ok to good but not great and our secondary will happily give up 50-70 yard plays multiple times a game (see: Titans, Tennessee). If Minnesota can exploit the latter while Brees / MT have an off day, they can beat us and move on.

As to the question of which game is closer, I voted Saints/Minnesota. I think NE puts Tennessee away rather easily and moves on in a sleeper that's basically done before the half. NO and MIN will be in a fight until the end, with the winner coming down to the final possession. My sense is that neither defense will show up and we're looking at Cousins with 6TDs and Drew with 4+. It'll come to who makes the most mistakes and / or who has the ball last and the NFL will wish it'd been the evening game.

[Destructo Spin]

I'm not much on trash talking but I'll say NE/Titans because I have a lot of respect for the Titans after seeing them in person two weeks ago. They're big, fast and very talented on offense and have a good solid defense. I think they're going to be a handful for the AFC for at least the next 5-6 years. Dudes like Jonnu Smith and AJ Brown are eye-poppingly talented and they finally have a good quarterback. But I think they're a boom-or-bust proposition in this game. Either they'll stun the world or they'll wilt.

I think the Saints could easily lose to the Vikings due to the whole postseason curse the Saints seem to have going on, but if they do lose I think it will be by 1-2 points, and if they win it will probably be 5-6 points or less. But this NE-Tenn game, I think is going to be a 10-14 point game either way, depending on how the young Titans handle their business.

[Hunter2_1]

Pats and Titans should be close. Each has an advantage on one side of the ball, Titans are hotter but Pats at home....I reckon something like 27-25 to someone.

[CriminalMind]

Both games will end with a score differential of 3

[BillSabre]

On 12/31/2019 at 3:25 AM, mdonnelly21 said:

Curios why you think Titans are going to beat the Patriots?

Well, the Patriots are struggling.  I see one team that’s the 3 seed limping into the playoffs while I see another team gelling and playing really good football that got the 6 seed.  Leagues leading rusher and arguably the best QB down the stretch this year.  Does anybody believe the Pats weren’t trying to get the bye? The Dolphins went into Foxborough and beat them. The Patriots defense was hiding the offensive issues for the most part this year.  That hasn’t been the case lately.  I just think Tennessee has the firepower to get a lead and  ew England is not built right now for catch up. They need a lead so they can go heavy on the run and mix in some dink and dunk to Edelman. I believe the Titans will win.  Tennessee will be up 2 scores at the half...... 10-14 points and Henry will do what Henry does in the second half and wear that defense right down. 
 

Prediction:  1st half Tennessee 21, Pats 10

Game: Tennessee 35, Pats 27 

[braylon]

20 hours ago, nolaexpat said:

Part of the reason that the NFL is fun is that you just never know which teams will come out hot and which ones will come out flat and that's generally true regardless of how a team is playing. The Saints this year have kind of reverted to form. Our offense puts up points fast and we have a receiver that really can't be covered. Our defense is ok to good but not great and our secondary will happily give up 50-70 yard plays multiple times a game (see: Titans, Tennessee). If Minnesota can exploit the latter while Brees / MT have an off day, they can beat us and move on.

As to the question of which game is closer, I voted Saints/Minnesota. I think NE puts Tennessee away rather easily and moves on in a sleeper that's basically done before the half. NO and MIN will be in a fight until the end, with the winner coming down to the final possession. My sense is that neither defense will show up and we're looking at Cousins with 6TDs and Drew with 4+. It'll come to who makes the most mistakes and / or who has the ball last and the NFL will wish it'd been the evening game.

You're predicting a SIX TOUCHDOWN day for Cousins?!

[nolaexpat]

I mean, since you put it like THAT... no?  But that sort of performance, a la FitzMagic to open last season, wouldn't shock me. Cousins plays well against the Saints in general and the media and NFL have spent the week insulting both him and Minny, basically daring them to upset us at home... so, you know. This is life as a Saints fan. I expect that a game we should win fairly easily will actually instead be quite difficult and that we might spend a considerable portion of it playing from waaaay behind like we just did in Tennessee.