The 2020 Free Agency Rumblings Thread

[WindyCity]

Kelce and Ertz signed extensions in 2016 when the cap was 155 million. Neither was a free agent or hit the open market so their values were depressed.

Ertz: average 8.5 million, 5.5% of the cap

Kelce: average 9.4 million, 6 % of the cap

 

Based on the 2020 cap 6% of the cap would be 12.3 million

[WindyCity]

In 2018, the no longer elite Jimmy Graham signs a 10/year deal with the Packers when the cap was 177 million.

5.6% cap share

In 2020 dollars based on a 5.6% cap share  that would be 11.5 million.

I am fine with Austin Hooper getting that cap share or a little more.

[topwop1]

22 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

In 2018, the no longer elite Jimmy Graham signs a 10/year deal with the Packers when the cap was 177 million.

5.6% cap share

In 2020 dollars based on a 5.6% cap share  that would be 11.5 million.

I am fine with Austin Hooper getting that cap share or a little more.

GB is now going to use that 5.6% cap share and more on Hooper, you just watch.

[soulman]

1 hour ago, beardown3231 said:

I agree. I think Ebron is the safer bet, say what you will about his hands/attitude "issues"

If Pace plans to add a vet TE in FA I would tend to lean towards a guy like Ebron on a one year deal as well and I'll give my reasoning.

We still have Burton on the books for at least another year due to saving very little if we release him.  In fact we have him on the books for two more years with $8.55 mil and $8.85 mil cap hits and at fairly reasonable cash costs of roughly $7 mil.  So at this point I'd bank on his full recovery and at least getting a full seasons production from him that's as good or better than what we got in 2018. 54/569yds/6tds.

I believe Shaheen won't be around in Sept. but we've already added Demetrius Harris to replace him as a "Y" TE.

As for the rest we have Horsted, Raymond, Braunecker, and two or three more on the roster and if we add a guy like Ebron in FA and possibly draft a TE as well it's gonna make for a pretty crowded TE room.   Plus we've hired a new TE coach to hopefully make something out of at least one or two of these guys so it won't be as if we've invested nothing in getting much better there.

I can't help but believing we can get as much production out of 3 or 4 of these guys than one Austin Hooper and quite possibly with less risk.  What happens if we end up spending $50 mil on Hooper and he gets injured in the preseason or game one?  This issue was created initially by a belief that between Shaheen and Burton we had the "Y" and "U" TE positions locked down.  Oops.

And as a footnote.  After overpaying 2 years ago for Jimmy Graham GB released him today.

[soulman]

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

The market is usually set by guys who do not switch teams. Which will be the case at TE 5 minutes after Hooper signs when Kittle re-signs. The reason that is is so depressed is that 1. there are not a lot of really good TEs and 2. Kelce and Ertz re-signed 3 years ago and that was over 35 million in cap increases since then.

RT, TE and S are positions that have lagged for years behind where they should be.

If you pay Hooper 12/season you are "overpaying" by a couple of million based on past contracts. The cap is about to explode who cares about "over paying" by 2-3 million. You are worried about spare change at that point.

Pace can and will do as he feels best but that still doesn't mean that I would favor overspending on Hooper who is NOT a once in a decade type.  In fact he's not even the top TE in the NFL now.

I would approach the whole deal differently and more in line with how I responded to beardown.

[WindyCity]

Quote

So at this point I'd bank on his full recovery and at least getting a full seasons production from him that's as good or better than what we got in 2018. 54/569yds/6tds

 

Based on what?

Tremendous risk for a chronically injured player.

Did we learn nothing from Kyle Long?

Edited March 12, 2020 by WindyCity

[WindyCity]

22 minutes ago, soulman said:

Pace can and will do as he feels best but that still doesn't mean that I would favor overspending on Hooper who is NOT a once in a decade type.  In fact he's not even the top TE in the NFL now.

I would approach the whole deal differently and more in line with how I responded to beardown.

You are not overspending on him. You are spending an appropriate amount for a productive TE when you are desperate at the position.

You cannot compare his deal to the ones that were signed 3 years ago.

He will be the highest paid TE for 2 minutes. Within 2 years of signing he will be the 5th or 6th highest paid TE, which is in line with his production.

[soulman]

18 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

You are not overspending on him. You are spending an appropriate amount for a productive TE when you are desperate at the position.

You cannot compare his deal to the ones that were signed 3 years ago.

He will be the highest paid TE for 2 minutes. Within 2 years of signing he will be the 5th or 6th highest paid TE, which is in line with his production.

Well if you prefer that I call it overspending on the position.

I'm not advocating Pace depend entirely on Burton bouncing back to a level that's as good or better than 2018 but neither would I be willing to ignore that possibility and the $8.55 mil of cap I have invested in him that I can't shed without a $7.5 dead cap hit.  Any moves I make would take that into consideration as well as what others resources I have invested in the position or may be able to add.

Hooper is a swing for the fences for me and one I would not be willing to enter into a bidding war to achieve.  Not if can also score with a couple of doubles and a single.  Moves made purely out of desperation often turn out poorly.  Did GB gets there money's worth out of Jimmy Graham after agreeing to pay him $10 mil a year?  I doubt they feel they did or they'd have paid him $10 mil again this year.

But as I posted Pace will do what he believes is best from his perspective.  Maybe he goes all in on Hooper.  I'm only stating my own approach to this based on my own management style which is clearly very different than yours.

[WindyCity]

18 minutes ago, soulman said:

Well if you prefer that I call it overspending on the position.

I'm not advocating Pace depend entirely on Burton bouncing back to a level that's as good or better than 2018 but neither would I be willing to ignore that possibility and the $8.55 mil of cap I have invested in him that I can't shed without a $7.5 dead cap hit.  Any moves I make would take that into consideration as well as what others resources I have invested in the position or may be able to add.

Hooper is a swing for the fences for me and one I would not be willing to enter into a bidding war to achieve.  Not if can also score with a couple of doubles and a single.  Moves made purely out of desperation often turn out poorly.  Did GB gets there money's worth out of Jimmy Graham after agreeing to pay him $10 mil a year?  I doubt they feel they did or they'd have paid him $10 mil again this year.

But as I posted Pace will do what he believes is best from his perspective.  Maybe he goes all in on Hooper.  I'm only stating my own approach to this based on my own management style which is clearly very different than yours.

Burton is a sunk cost. If he effects decision making then you are not setting yourself up for success.

Pace has shown not ability to bargain hunt or "hit doubles" at TE.

Your approach risks on field performance. Mine risks cap space, which is a super available resource once the CBA is signed.

[beardown3231]

1 minute ago, WindyCity said:

Burton is a sunk cost. If he effects decision making then you are not setting yourself up for success.

Pace has shown not ability to bargain hunt or "hit doubles" at TE.

Your approach risks on field performance. Mine risks cap space, which is a super available resource once the CBA is signed.

Burton seems like the ultimate "I got paid and now IDGAF anymore" guy.

[dll2000]

13 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Burton seems like the ultimate "I got paid and now IDGAF anymore" guy.

I don't think so.  I think he is a lower tier starting talent that now has injury issues.

A lot of guys play at 90% of what they were.  Burton was pretty healthy as a mainly back up player before coming to Bears.   Now he is 90% or less of what he was and that isn't really good enough.

 

[soulman]

2 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Burton is a sunk cost. If he effects decision making then you are not setting yourself up for success.

Pace has shown not ability to bargain hunt or "hit doubles" at TE.

Your approach risks on field performance. Mine risks cap space, which is a super available resource once the CBA is signed.

Windy....now you're like an old man yelling at clouds.

You have your own opinions based on however you evaluate risk vs reward and I have mine.  Calling cap and gtd $$$ dollars which will be charged and/or paid in 2020 is not how I would define sunk cost.  It's gonna hit my cap in six days when the league year begins and I won't be able to ignore it because I can't avoid it.  Sunken cost is defined only as what has already been paid not what it still owed.

With that and limited cap space available I would opt for spreading my risk among more players than going all in one just one.  Two years ago we hung our hats on spending big money for Burton and a 2nd round pick on Shaheen as the solution for our TE problem and here you and other sit criticizing that because it didn't work. So let's say you drop the satchel on Hooper guaranteeing him another $25-$30 while you're still paying off Burton's gtd $$$ and he becomes injured as well?  What's Plan C?

You can disagree all you like but it's not gonna alter my approach.  Unlike you I don't claim I'm right I'm only sharing what I believe is the best approach from my perspective.

[dll2000]

I think over paying for Hooper is a large mistake,  But I think the bottom line is if you can't solve a need via draft you have to solve it via FA. 

Otherwise you live with the hole in your lineup or adjust schematically.  

Bears have a need at TE and Nagy has not shown the ability to scheme around it.  

Our two best TEs IMO are Y Holtz and U Horstead.   Holtz is a try hard and Horstead is talented, but still a raw project undergoing a position change.  

Ostensibly our two best TEs are Burton and Shaheen, but I think that simply isn't true factoring in injuries and in game performance of late.   You have no ability without availability.  

Bears were better when back ups had actual reps. 

I can live with Horstead learning the U reps, I think it worth seeing his potential as he is our best athlete at the position currently and could turn into something.  

I think our primary need is a truly bruising Y who can post up and catch.  The guy they drafted Shaheen to be.   I don't think that guy is out there anymore.

He was there last year as a FA, but signed with Cincinnati and Houston just signed the other guy.  I think Pace dropped ball both times there, which is weird because it fits his FA MO to a tee.   That is what I would have done on both counts and I was on record last year from Winter on it.  Pace seems to be bad at TE and QB.   

Hooper is a true Hybrid, a decent to good blocker and a decent to good WR.   But he isn't great at either.   He had good numbers in Atl, because as DC if you have to choose who is going to beat you out of their weapons you are going to choose Hooper every time.  So I believe his numbers are likely inflated. 

But what are you going to do?  Any rookie is likely going to be just okay in best case scenario, at least year one, and worst case scenario is worthless.  

If you want actual production in 2020 it is Hooper.  It might not be best long term decision for Bears, in fact it likely is not, but it could mean Pace's job if Bears play like 2019 Bears.

(I did not factor in KC FA TE - I guess he gets his chance this year - looks like right now he is starting).

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 12, 2020 by dll2000

[Heinz D.]

37 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Burton seems like the ultimate "I got paid and now IDGAF anymore" guy.

[beardown3231]

41 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I don't think so.  I think he is a lower tier starting talent that now has injury issues.

A lot of guys play at 90% of what they were.  Burton was pretty healthy as a mainly back up player before coming to Bears.   Now he is 90% or less of what he was and that isn't really good enough.

 

Burton was highly thought of in FA and did a good job when Ertz went down. He wasn't low tier. He was middle tier, and he did a good job in his first year with the Bears. Since that suspicious Eagles game, he has completely packed it in. I don't doubt playing more has opened him up to more injury (obviously) but this entire situation with him is bizarre.