SlevinKelevra Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 Welp, looks like IHME was wrong. Nobody could have predicted that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoUpTwoDown Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 51 minutes ago, mission27 said: It’s reflected to a point Chinas numbers are spiking (doesn’t mean they aren’t under reported but clearly they are showing some resurgence as expected) and Russia’s numbers have been horrendous (again could be underreported but they are growing very rapidly). I think chinas issues are directly linked to Russia outbreak and a large land border and also just a natural outgrowth of China opening back up. India it’s very hard to say. When you have a country with over a billion people and not great healthcare the data is kind of hard to use. Yeah I mean picture a small rural town in any of those places getting a wave of infections/deaths. There's no way accurate data is coming out of places like that. Even in the dense major cities, it's gotta be extremely overwhelming. I doubt getting the data correct is on any of the people's minds dealing with those situations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/south-dakotas-governor-resisted-ordering-people-to-stay-home-now-it-has-one-of-the-nations-largest-coronavirus-hot-spots/2020/04/13/5cff90fe-7daf-11ea-a3ee-13e1ae0a3571_story.html What has the moL been saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/canada-u-s-border-restrictions-wont-be-lifted-any-time-soon-says-trudeau Very interesting I suspect the way this will be handled when borders re-open is a patchwork including: 1. Restrictions will remain in place for anyone who has traveled to a hotspot recently 2. For all others crossing a border / traveling internationally will be required to install tracking software similar to the Apple/Google app thats in development that anonymously tells people if they've potentially been exposed 3. At some point I wouldn't be surprised to see rapid testing for international flights or maybe even airports in general but obviously a huge logistical challenge The first re-openings are already happening in Asia, probably followed soon by some borders in Europe and the US/Canada border likely by June. Transcon travel may not come back for a little longer imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 Quote Cases of the novel coronavirus in Chile have climbed past 7,500, including 82 deaths, while over 2,300 have recovered from infection as of Tuesday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. But coronavirus patients in Chile who have died are being counted among the country's recovered population because they are "no longer contagious," Chile's Health Minister Jaime Mañalich said this week. Source @mission27 Does this change your score on Chile at all? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 1 hour ago, mission27 said: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/?outputType=amp wowzers It always seemed like there was a good chance that it escaped from a lab. Just like the movies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said: Source @mission27 Does this change your score on Chile at all? See our note yesterday on South America. We've resisted added Chile, Ecuador, and Peru because the data seems spotty. In fairness to Chile their data is by far the cleanest and it seems like the outbreak is slowing. EDIT: To clarify how this would impact the model - it actually wouldn't because we look at cases not deaths, and a death or recovery has an equal impact on active cases, so Chile would not be effected Edited April 14, 2020 by mission27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 (edited) I know the WHO made some mistakes but I'm not sure if this is the best time to decide to halt funding. Especially you know when certain mistakes were also made by our government. Edited April 14, 2020 by Xenos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 2 hours ago, mission27 said: It’s reflected to a point Russia outbreak and a large land border what, do you think people are swimming across the Argun and Amur rivers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Xenos said: I know the WHO made some mistakes but I'm not sure if this is the best time to decide to halt funding. Especially you know when certain mistakes were also made by our government. it's catastrophically stupid. like something out of a power rankings guide to decision making. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, SlevinKelevra said: what, do you think people are swimming across the Argun and Amur rivers? I don't really follow but its well documented that a large number of cases have been imported through their border crossings with Russia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 Vox looks at three different scenarios about how to "reopen" the economy and feels apprehensive. https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment Quote In different ways, all these plans say the same thing: Even if you can imagine the herculean political, social, and economic changes necessary to manage our way through this crisis effectively, there is no normal for the foreseeable future. Until there’s a vaccine, the United States either needs economically ruinous levels of social distancing, a digital surveillance state of shocking size and scope, or a mass testing apparatus of even more shocking size and intrusiveness. Quote I don’t want anyone to mistake this as an argument for surrendering to the disease. As unlikely as these futures may be, I think the do-nothing argument is even less plausible: It imagines that we simply let a highly lethal virus kill perhaps millions of Americans, hospitalize tens of millions more, and crush the health system, while the rest of us go about our daily economic and social business. That is, in my view, far less likely than the construction of a huge digital surveillance state. I care about my privacy, but not nearly so much as I care about my mother. My point isn’t to criticize these plans when I have nothing better to offer. Indeed, my point isn’t to criticize them at all. It’s simply to note that these aren’t plans for returning to anything even approaching normal. They either envision life under a surveillance and testing state of dystopian (but perhaps necessary!) proportions, or they envision a long period of economic and public health pain, as we wrestle the disease down only to see it roar back, as seems to be happening in Singapore. Quote One final takeaway from all this: If there is literally anything more we can possibly do to accelerate the development of vaccines or therapeutics, we should do it. Update: After I published this piece, Apple and Google jointly announced a project to embed voluntary contact tracing functionality in their phones, and make the data interoperable across iOS and Android. Read my colleagues at Recode and the Verge for more on that (and here’s some smart analysis from Casey Newton). And Danielle Allen, the head of Harvard’s Safra Center, wrote to tell me that they’ll have a more detailed plan coming next week, and it will differ in some ways from the papers they’ve released so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, mission27 said: I don't really follow but its well documented that a large number of cases have been imported through their border crossings with Russia You specifically said its because they have a large border. In factual reality, most of that border is defined by rivers. While a lot of people might be crossing, I highly doubt it's by swimming across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob_shadows Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 Yeah that's going to go over well, lol. I mean it doesn't really bother me personally, I couldn't care less if people know where I am... But I don't think I'm in the majority on that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 Just what we need, Apple and Google to gang up on monitoring us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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