Looking at WR Fits in the 2020 NFL Draft/Jonathan Wood

[soulman]

6 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Yeah, it'd be great if Raegor could come in and have 700 yards in his first year... except Samuel has never done that despite being in the league for 3 years. Sure the touchdowns are decent but TD's can sometimes be a product of opportunity, not necessarily something the player is doing.

Averaging 500 yards a season in today's NFL sucks. That's nothing. Even last year, Samuel was 52nd in the NFL in yards. Big deal. I guess we should expect that from a 2nd rounder in Raegor and not to be an All Pro, but I'd certainly hope Raegor would be a better WR than that.

Well to begin with the choice of comparing him with Samuel is based on Samuel being both a receiving threat and a rushing threat as a gadget player so IMHO that comparison is realistic.  So would comparing him to a Randall Cobb.  The analyst has to compare him with someone and he chose Samuel.  What makes that become an excuse for you to knock Samuel?  He's been a productive player.

Come on BD.  I told you before I don't just make **** up.  Look at Samuels last two seasons.  So don't say he's never done that without first doing your homework.  And don't gimme that "sometimes TDs are the product of opportunity" BS.  You sound like Windy.  Of course they are because his QB trusts him and his OC trusts him enough to deliver with the ball into his hands so he gets opportunities to score. 

TDs are still TDs and Samuel has 14 of them in the last two seasons.  How many does ARob have?  11  How many does Miller have? 9  In fact Samuel's yardage stats for 2018 and 2019 exceed Anthony Millers as well and he's also 2nd round pick.   Could Reagor do even better?  Sure, why not.  But lets not be putting down guys like Samuel or Miller like they're failed picks or something.  Neither are #1 WRs so they won't compare to other #1 WRs.  But both are productive #2 type WRs or they wouldn't be starting.  Compare those stats.

 

Samuel's stats:

2018:  578 total yds/7 tds

2019: 757 total yds/7 tds

Receiving & Rushing

					Games		Receiving											Rushing								Total Yds
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	1D	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Y/Tgt	Rush	Yds	TD	1D	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Touch	Y/Tch	YScm	RRTD	Fmb	AV
Career					38	27	196	108	1236	11.4	11	66	53	2.8	32.5	55.1%	6.3	31	278	3	13	33	9.0	7.3	0.8	139	10.9	1514	14	1	12
2017	21	CAR	rb/wr	10	9	4	26	15	115	7.7	0	6	23	1.7	12.8	57.7%	4.4	4	64	0	3	31	16.0	7.1	0.4	19	9.4	179	0	0	2
2018	22	CAR	WR	10	13	8	65	39	494	12.7	5	24	53	3.0	38.0	60.0%	7.6	8	84	2	3	33	10.5	6.5	0.6	47	12.3	578	7	1	5
2019	23	CAR	WR	10	16	15	105	54	627	11.6	6	36	44	3.4	39.2	51.4%	6.0	19	130	1	7	16	6.8	8.1	1.2	73	10.4	757	7	0	5

Edited April 8, 2020 by soulman

[JAF-N72EX]

Given the circumstances it's still too early to tell on Samuel.

You should never count a rookie year against WR's. Most WR's don't start to hit their stride until year 2. 

[The_Romen]

17 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Given the circumstances it's still too early to tell on Samuel.

You should never count a rookie year against WR's. Most WR's don't start to hit their stride until year 2. 

Davante Adams for example. He dropped everything his first year and Packer fans hated him. Now he's their only receiver.

[soulman]

1 hour ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Given the circumstances it's still too early to tell on Samuel.

You should never count a rookie year against WR's. Most WR's don't start to hit their stride until year 2. 

Samuel is just the comparison the analyst made based on size and playing style.  Why that caused any comment at all on Samuel or his production is beyond me.  That had nothing to do with the comparison yet BD chose to challenge it in a negative sense.  Samuel has been a productive #2 receiver early in his career.  End of story.

[beardown3231]

10 hours ago, soulman said:

Well to begin with the choice of comparing him with Samuel is based on Samuel being both a receiving threat and a rushing threat as a gadget player so IMHO that comparison is realistic.  So would comparing him to a Randall Cobb.  The analyst has to compare him with someone and he chose Samuel.  What makes that become an excuse for you to knock Samuel?  He's been a productive player.

It's a knock against Samuel because I don't want the Bears first pick in the 2020 to be as good as Samuel, because Samuel is a JAG. Like JAF said, after 1 year it's way too early to judge a WR just like the same can be said for a TE, but Samuel is now through 3 years. He hasn't been anything special. There are trade rumors floating around involving him. He isn't anything special.

Come on BD.  I told you before I don't just make **** up.  Look at Samuels last two seasons.  So don't say he's never done that without first doing your homework.  And don't gimme that "sometimes TDs are the product of opportunity" BS.  You sound like Windy.  Of course they are because his QB trusts him and his OC trusts him enough to deliver with the ball into his hands so he gets opportunities to score. 

He hasn't done it before. He has NOT had a season of 700 receiving yards. Look at the stats you posted.

TDs are still TDs and Samuel has 14 of them in the last two seasons.  How many does ARob have?  11  How many does Miller have? 9  In fact Samuel's yardage stats for 2018 and 2019 exceed Anthony Millers as well and he's also 2nd round pick.   Could Reagor do even better?  Sure, why not.  But lets not be putting down guys like Samuel or Miller like they're failed picks or something.  Neither are #1 WRs so they won't compare to other #1 WRs.  But both are productive #2 type WRs or they wouldn't be starting.  Compare those stats.

Are you implying Samuel is better than Robinson? Seriously?  This is a perfect example of TD's sometimes being a product of opportunity, like I said. Burton led the Bears in TD catches in 2018. Is he good? David Montgomery had as many rushing TD's as Saquon Barkley last year. Are they equal? Kenny Golladay had more TD's than Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill and Deandre Hopkins last year. Is he a better player?

Who cares abut Anthony Miller? Why are you bringing him into this? He also has proven to not be any good. Flashes at times, yes, but nothing that's consistent enough to be considered "good." He's an average player, just like Samuel. If Miller was "good" the Bears wouldn't be needing another WR right now.

 

 

 

[dll2000]

I think I am in minority and I'd rather not take a WR in 2nd.  My reasons:

1) They have a really high bust rate no matter how well you think you have evaluated and vetted them.  Even top 15 WRs bust quite a bit, much less 2nd rounders who get far less publicicity for it.  It is just a hard position to project.   

2) Bears have already invested a lot of picks and FAs at the position in last 2 years.

3) I think QBs make WRs not other way around and some of guys we have may be better than people think.

4) You can bring in Jerry Rice and Randy Moss and it isn't going to work unless O line and QB play get better.

5) Every year there are a bunch of talented WRs available in 2nd round and in FA.  They are not rare commodities like OTs and Edge players and QBs.  Take the flyers on them when you have more picks to work with.  Not when you have to hit on your limited picks.   

I know we need a deep threat.   But I think the risk/reward with a 2020 2nd round pick is not worth it.  We need at least two of our draft picks to hit.  Hopefully one in a big way.

Now if you have a first round grade on a WR and he falls to mid second then you should probably take him.  You can't ignore that.   But if you have two equal grades on a WR versus an OL, take the OL.

 

 

[dll2000]

12 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Just to add to this, speed isn't just about how fast a player can run a 40 either. Any NFL player can run a straight line downfield.

Can he fight off defenders on the line while keeping control of his feet and have the burst to break off?  Does he have the awareness to manipulate the secondary when he gets there? Can he move through traffic in zone coverage's while at full speed? Can he time his routes while moving at full speed (turning his body/head toward the QB at the right time without exposing the play)?  Can he locate the ball in mid-air while moving at full speed?  Can he "feel" the field and know when to drag his feet on the sidelines -- VERY important to WR's who are asked to be "deep threats" in any system.

Eff a 4.3 guy. Give me a guy who has a strong understanding of the game with a good work ethic and relies more on his mental ability than he does his physical ability. These are guys that spend hours on film dissecting the opposing secondaries to discover individual weaknesses and exploits in the scheme and these are the guys who go on to have an illustrious career.

 

People posted this prospect and that prospect are faster than Tyreek Hill.

Probably in a race he would lose.  I get that they posted they hit higher in game speeds as well.  But that is probably on an open break away.

 Tyreek Hill just plays consitently faster than anybody on grass in equipment.  Maybe faster than anybody ever save legends like Randy Moss, Deion Sanders, Darrell Green and Bo Jackson.

 

 

[dll2000]

Just now, dll2000 said:

People posted this prospect and that prospect are faster than Tyreek Hill.

Probably in a race he would lose.  I get that they posted they hit higher in game speeds as well.  But that is probably on an open break away.

 Tyreek Hill just plays consitently faster than anybody on grass in equipment.  Maybe faster than anybody ever save legends like Randy Moss, Deion Sanders, Darrell Green and Bo Jackson.

 

 

Why I was excited he might get kicked off KC.  You take Hill off KC and they are not same team at all.

 

[abstract_thought]

52 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I think I am in minority and I'd rather not take a WR in 2nd.  My reasons:

1) They have a really high bust rate no matter how well you think you have evaluated and vetted them.  Even top 15 WRs bust quite a bit, much less 2nd rounders who get far less publicicity for it.  It is just a hard position to project.   

2) Bears have already invested a lot of picks and FAs at the position in last 2 years.

3) I think QBs make WRs not other way around and some of guys we have may be better than people think.

4) You can bring in Jerry Rice and Randy Moss and it isn't going to work unless O line and QB play get better.

5) Every year there are a bunch of talented WRs available in 2nd round and in FA.  They are not rare commodities like OTs and Edge players and QBs.  Take the flyers on them when you have more picks to work with.  Not when you have to hit on your limited picks.   

I know we need a deep threat.   But I think the risk/reward with a 2020 2nd round pick is not worth it.  We need at least two of our draft picks to hit.  Hopefully one in a big way.

Now if you have a first round grade on a WR and he falls to mid second then you should probably take him.  You can't ignore that.   But if you have two equal grades on a WR versus an OL, take the OL.

I also think the depth of NFL talent at WR is pretty ridiculous right now. The passing game has become more prominent at all levels of football and kids that used to play RB are now learning to play WR, TE, and CB at a young age. And the modern rules allow for a much wider range of body types to play the position because physicality is dramatically reduced.

[dll2000]

2 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

I also think the depth of NFL talent at WR is pretty ridiculous right now. The passing game has become more prominent at all levels of football and kids that used to play RB are now learning to play WR, TE, and CB at a young age. And the modern rules allow for a much wider range of body types to play the position because physicality is dramatically reduced.

You will always have outliers (maybe 6 or so operating at any one time), but a lot of other guys have similar talent.      

It is really hard to find QBs, CBs, Edge, OTs and ball hawking safeties.  Rest of positions have a far greater supply and easier hit rate.

Pace has had to pay through nose for his edge guys, hit on his ball hawking safety, been okay at CB and flat missed at QB (to date).

 

 

[soulman]

9 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

 

He had 757 total yards in 2019 so why don't you look at what I posted and stop posting nonsense.

**** it.  I'm done with those of you who have no ******* common sense or logic and can't even understand that what an analyst posted as a comparison had nothing to do with production.  You ate a waste of my ******* time BD.  Get some smarts will ya'?

[beardown3231]

Just... **** it... delete this, mods, as I attempt to find some ******* smarts

Edited April 9, 2020 by beardown3231

[Madmike90]

Soulman - Beardown3231- both of you are getting a warning for first circumventing the profanity filter...secondly for getting personal with each other...this stops here and now or it will lead to bans...if you have any further questions please message me individually.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

Why isn't Rosen censored yet

Edited April 9, 2020 by RunningVaccs
It's been a while