The QB Thread: Everything Carr, Stidham and beyond...

[NYRaider]

13 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

One of the main reasons why I think know we need to move on from Carr if he can not be a top 5-7 QB is the salary cap.  The contracts QBs are getting is going to create to classes of teams.  Those that gave a top QB $40+ million a year and those that thought they were giving a top QB $40+ million a year.  I think our best bet is to draft a QB and sit him behind Carr for a year.  If the rookie looks like he is ready to go year 1 then we trade Carr.  If Carr shows this year he is a top 5-7 QB then we should start negotiations asap.

The only downside is that this years QB class looks like one of the weakest in recent memory. Carson Strong, Desmond Ridder, and Malik Willis are all intriguing but aren't great prospects.

[MrOaktown_56]

1 hour ago, drfrey13 said:

One of the main reasons why I think know we need to move on from Carr if he can not be a top 5-7 QB is the salary cap.  The contracts QBs are getting is going to create to classes of teams.  Those that gave a top QB $40+ million a year and those that thought they were giving a top QB $40+ million a year.  I think our best bet is to draft a QB and sit him behind Carr for a year.  If the rookie looks like he is ready to go year 1 then we trade Carr.  If Carr shows this year he is a top 5-7 QB then we should start negotiations asap.

Yeah I don’t think we should pay him 40 mil unless he earns it. If he does I would happily pony up. That’s why I said we should wait until this year to decide.

[MrOaktown_56]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

Over the last 4 seasons...

QB-A: 17,082 yards (64% comp), 102 TD, 48 INT, 4 winning seasons (42-20), 3 playoff wins, 1 Super Bowl appearance 

QB-B: 15,702 yards (67% comp), 89 TD, 40 INT, 0 winning seasons (25-38), 0 playoff appearances  

One of these QB's just got traded and the team ate the biggest dead cap hit ever. The other is potentially going to get extended. Guess which one, lol.

Yeah but Goff regressed a lot and Carr did make the playoffs in 2016 so that’s not really accurate. Carr is definitely in the top of tier 3 for me (around 12-14ish). We need him to be tier 2. If he isn’t, we should move on. The guys you mentioned are low tier 3/tier 4 guys for me. Goff is probably not even a top 20 qb right now IMO.

Most of those guys sucked also. Flacco was god awful at that point. Dak was an accident and I’ve never had anything against taking developmental qb’s. 
 

Again we’ll see. I think Carr and Stafford are pretty similar as players. If we can upgrade to an elite guy or get an elite draft prospect I’m down. But easier said than done.

[NYRaider]

10 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Yeah but Goff regressed a lot and Carr did make the playoffs in 2016 so that’s not really accurate. Carr is definitely in the top of tier 3 for me (around 12-14ish). We need him to be tier 2. If he isn’t, we should move on. The guys you mentioned are low tier 3/tier 4 guys for me. Goff is probably not even a top 20 qb right now IMO.

Most of those guys sucked also. Flacco was god awful at that point. Dak was an accident and I’ve never had anything against taking developmental qb’s. 
 

Again we’ll see. I think Carr and Stafford are pretty similar as players. If we can upgrade to an elite guy or get an elite draft prospect I’m down. But easier said than done.

After Carr's best season in 2016 he didn't regress? He was significantly worse for the next 3 seasons. 

Most of those guys sucked yet put up similar if not better production than Carr on winning teams?

Stafford is significantly better than Carr. Sean McVay just gave up Goff, ate the dead cap, and gave up 2 firsts for him. He has shown he can be one of the most productive passers in the league, he has 7 seasons better than Carr's most productive year, lol. 

[NYRaider]

10 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Yeah I don’t think we should pay him 40 mil unless he earns it. If he does I would happily pony up. That’s why I said we should wait until this year to decide.

$40M for a QB that has never won a playoff game?

[MrOaktown_56]

5 hours ago, NYRaider said:

$40M for a QB that has never won a playoff game?

If he lights it up yeah. If he doesn’t then obviously no. 

[MrOaktown_56]

5 hours ago, NYRaider said:

After Carr's best season in 2016 he didn't regress? He was significantly worse for the next 3 seasons. 

Most of those guys sucked yet put up similar if not better production than Carr on winning teams?

Stafford is significantly better than Carr. Sean McVay just gave up Goff, ate the dead cap, and gave up 2 firsts for him. He has shown he can be one of the most productive passers in the league, he has 7 seasons better than Carr's most productive year, lol. 

And 2020 wasn't his best year? I think so and a solid amount of the forum does too. Don't ignore that they're trending in opposite directions. That is literally the point. Carr has improved every year under Gruden.

The 2nd point is just idiotic. He has more attempts so obviously he'll throw for more yards. Carr had a passer rating of 101 last season. Stafford has surpassed that all but once in his career. "Significantly better". The hilarious part is that you're throwing out Stafford and Stafford has been just as, if not more unsuccessful in his career in terms of wins. It's a lot easier to throw for big yards with Calvin Johnson as well. Or will we ignore that too.

But anyway I don't want to have this discussion at this point. You've openly expressed that you think Carr is comparable to Jimmy G. I can't have a productive discussion about this with anyone who thinks that.

 

[NYRaider]

6 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

And 2020 wasn't his best year? I think so and a solid amount of the forum does too. Don't ignore that they're trending in opposite directions. That is literally the point. Carr has improved every year under Gruden.

The 2nd point is just idiotic. He has more attempts so obviously he'll throw for more yards. Carr had a passer rating of 101 last season. Stafford has surpassed that all but once in his career. "Significantly better". The hilarious part is that you're throwing out Stafford and Stafford has been just as, if not more unsuccessful in his career in terms of wins. It's a lot easier to throw for big yards with Calvin Johnson as well. Or will we ignore that too.

But anyway I don't want to have this discussion at this point. You've openly expressed that you think Carr is comparable to Jimmy G. I can't have a productive discussion about this with anyone who thinks that.

2016 was his best year, most yards per game, 28 TD and only 9 turnovers. Last year he had 27 TD and 17 turnovers. 

Stafford always had one of the worst running games in the league and a terrible defense. He has been just as unsuccessful? In 9 seasons as a full time starter he's 68-76 with 4 winning seasons, Carr is 47-63 with 1 winning season in 7 years. 

Jimmy G's only healthy season: 3,978 yards (69% comp), 27 TD, 13 INT, 5 fumbles

Carr in 2020: 4,103 yards (67% comp), 27 TD, 9 INT, 8 fumbles 

[Darbsk]

9 hours ago, NYRaider said:

2016 was his best year, most yards per game, 28 TD and only 9 turnovers. Last year he had 27 TD and 17 turnovers. 

Stafford always had one of the worst running games in the league and a terrible defense. He has been just as unsuccessful? In 9 seasons as a full time starter he's 68-76 with 4 winning seasons, Carr is 47-63 with 1 winning season in 7 years. 

Jimmy G's only healthy season: 3,978 yards (69% comp), 27 TD, 13 INT, 5 fumbles

Carr in 2020: 4,103 yards (67% comp), 27 TD, 9 INT, 8 fumbles 

I know we're all just rehashing the same argument but just throwing out stats without context is a waste of time to a productive discussion IMO. I do like Stafford but you obviously know who he's been throwing the ball to over the years compared to Carr. I think Stafford and Carr are similar level players. Stafford probably more of a gun slinger and TBH I'd like either in my team.

With regard to Jimmy G he obviously had that one good season but on a pretty stacked team that should have won a Superbowl. I don't think anyone here would trade Carr for Jimmy G straight up even If Garroppolo could stay healthy.

Goff again is the perfect example of a limited player playing well in a system, he produced given good circumstances but again, no one in their right mind having watched both play would trade Carr for Goff straight up.

I don't think there's anything new to add to the discussion at this point and neither side is going to change their opinions. Let's wait to see what transpires this year that may bring some fresh perspective 😀

[NYRaider]

2 minutes ago, Darbsk said:

I know we're all just rehashing the same argument but just throwing out stats without context is a waste of time to a productive discussion IMO. I do like Stafford but you obviously know who he's been throwing the ball to over the years compared to Carr. I think Stafford and Carr are similar level players. Stafford probably more of a gun slinger and TBH I'd like either in my team.

Stafford played with Calvin Johnson for 5 years and then had productive years on winning teams in 2016/2017 with Marvin Jones and Golden Tate as his top 2 receiving options and the worst running game in the league. Carr/Stafford may be similar in terms of where they rank amongst NFL QB's but they're completely different in terms of playing style. Stafford has proven that he can be a high volume passer and can make throws that Carr simply can't. Which is why the Rams gave up a kings ransom to go get him, McVay one of the best offensive coaches in the league, thinks he can open up the offense and get them over the top. If you put Carr or Stafford in the Rams offense who do you think would play better?

[NYRaider]

Regardless of Carr's play this season I hope we don't draft a QB early this year. I'd be happy with a developmental guy later in the draft but would much rather wait until 2023 and go after Bryce Young or Anthony Richardson.

[Darbsk]

2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Stafford played with Calvin Johnson for 5 years and then had productive years on winning teams in 2016/2017 with Marvin Jones and Golden Tate as his top 2 receiving options and the worst running game in the league. Carr/Stafford may be similar in terms of where they rank amongst NFL QB's but they're completely different in terms of playing style. Stafford has proven that he can be a high volume passer and can make throws that Carr simply can't. Which is why the Rams gave up a kings ransom to go get him, McVay one of the best offensive coaches in the league, thinks he can open up the offense and get them over the top. If you put Carr or Stafford in the Rams offense who do you think would play better?

Golliday is a great receiver too of course and better than anything we've had and he's been his second best WR of course, Johnson was sublime. Jones and Tate were pretty good too of course, maybe Cooper was better but they clearly have had 4 WRs better than anything Carr has had outside Cooper.

In the Rams offence with McVay as coach I think Carr plays better and would give them the best chance to win a Superbowl. I think Stafford would have the better bulk stats but also I think he's more prone to mistakes. In say, a Bruce Arians offence I take Stafford. I think they're both very good and would be happy with either.

My brother is a Rams fan so I do see quite a bit of them and they were brave to trade but they think they can win it all and Goff was holding them back clearly, they've made a calculated gamble but I do think they have overpaid for Stafford.

Edited September 12, 2021 by Darbsk

[NYRaider]

10 minutes ago, Darbsk said:

Golliday is a great receiver too of course and better than anything we've had and he's been his second best WR of course, Johnson was sublime.

In the Rams offence with McVay as coach I think Carr plays better and would give them the best chance to win a Superbowl. I think Stafford would have the better bulk stats but also I think he's more prone to mistakes. In say, a Bruce Arians offence I take Stafford. I think they're both very good and would be happy with either.

My brother is a Rams fan so I do see quite a bit of them and they were brave to trade but they think they can win it all and Goff was holding them back clearly, they've made a calculated gamble but I do think they have overpaid for Stafford.

Golladay is good but Cooper was better and so is Waller. 

I don't think Carr really would've moved the needle for the Rams offense as Goff's replacement. Stafford had 11 turnovers last season, Carr had 17 playing with a much more talented offense. Goff put up bulk stats for them the year they went to the Super Bowl. I don't really think it's about the stats though, Goff simply couldn't make the big time throws at a high rate and it held their offense back. Stafford has all of the arm talent in the world and will allow McVay to open up the playbook and take more shots down the field. 

McVay is one of, if not the, best offensive minds in football. Goff definitely held their offense back and Stafford's arm talent alone will make a significant impact. I don't think it was an overpay, the Rams have shown that draft capital is overrated if you can trade it to acquire proven NFL talent. The Rams haven't made a 1st round selection since 2016 and they're one of the best teams in the league. Over that same span we've had 8 first round picks and we're still not a contender. 

Edited September 12, 2021 by NYRaider

[Darbsk]

1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

Golladay is good but Cooper was better and so is Waller. 

I don't think Carr really would've moved the needle for the Rams offense as Goff's replacement. Stafford had 11 turnovers last season, Carr had 17 playing with a much more talent offense. Goff put up bulk stats for them the year they went to the Super Bowl. I don't really think it's about the stats though, Goff simply couldn't make the big time throws at a high rate and it held their offense back. Stafford has all of the arm talent in the world and will allow McVay to open up the playbook and take more shots down the field. 

McVay is one of, if not the, best offensive minds in football. Goff definitely held their offense back and Stafford's arm talent alone will make a significant impact. I don't think it was an overpay, the Rams have shown that draft capital is overrated if you can trade it to acquire proven NFL talent. The Rams haven't made a 1st round selection since 2016 and they're one of the best teams in the league. Over that same span we've had 8 first round picks and we're still not a contender. 

Well, we're about to find out of course and though Goff put up stats he's dull as a box of rocks so there is that. I think that held McVay back in what he could do. Again, it's subjective of course and we seem to be too far apart to come to a consensus (though you raise some really good points) but I believe given the offence McVay runs that Carr would be a great option and McVay could open it up with Carr too. Carr was very efficient last year when he did selectively go deep. Stafford will be good, probably more flashy but I think he'll make mistakes as he does that will really cost them.  They have a very interesting concept of team building that kind of goes against most teams but I really like what they've done. 

[NYRaider]

Just now, Darbsk said:

Well, we're about to find out of course and though Goff put up stats he's dull as a box of rocks so there is that. I think that held McVay back in what he could do. Again, it's subjective of course and we seem to be too far apart to come to a consensus (though you raise some really good points) but I believe given the offence McVay runs that Carr would be a great option and McVay could open it up with Carr too. Carr was very efficient last year when he did selectively go deep. Stafford will be good, probably more flashy but I think he'll make mistakes as he does that will really cost them.  They have a very interesting concept of team building that kind of goes against most teams but I really like what they've done. 

Average depth of target

2020: Stafford (8.7), Carr (8.1), Goff (6.2)

2019: Stafford (10.6), Goff (7.7), Carr (6.6)

Stafford's average depth of target was still higher than Carr's despite his two best receiving options being Marvin Jones and TJ Hockenson. While Carr had Ruggs, Nelly (2nd in YPC) and Waller. 

Carr also had a stronger running game to lean on (14th) and was only sacked 22 times. While Stafford was sacked 38 times and had one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL (30th). You say that Stafford's mistakes will really cost them but Carr turned the ball over more than Stafford did last season.