2020 Offense Outlook

[MrBobGray]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

Deguara college blocking wasn't great but neither that's true for like 95+% of college TEs today, unless maybe they went to Iowa. Effort and will to block and learn to improve their blocking is what's important.

Also, I was surprised how much better Sternberger looked as a rookie blocker than his college days. And I'd say Deguara looked better than Sternberger their last years in college.

As for route running, I think his best strengths are his brain to read the coverage around him so he knows how to adjust, which makes him pretty good in zone and his versatility because he's not great at any one thing, but he knows how to make it harder for the defender. If he can articulate in share his knowledge, he'd probably make one hell of a coach someday. But his football intelligence, will and verstility seem like his strengths over any one physical asset.

I gotta say I've come around on his blocking actually.  Went back over his stuff after @AlexGreen#20 mentioned he felt his second level blocking was his best quality, where I felt it was something he frequently struggled with.  Think we were talking about different things in the end (mostly I just think he has a tendency to scrape too far upfield on things going off tackle or when he needs to work off a combo), but I see what he was saying as well.  They regularly used Deguara as a lead blocker on outside runs that went way outside, think tosses and the like, and he reliably was able to square his man up and get a hat on him.  He also puts in the effort to get his man turned, even on blocks where he's late or doesn't get good contact, and I think it's going to really show up with Jones.  For all the talk that the team is clearly moving on from Jones, Deguara is the type of FB/move blocker that should play best with Jones.  He can consistently give him a screen to cut off of downfield and outside, and that's really all Jones needs to hit the big play.

[AlexGreen#20]

2 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

I gotta say I've come around on his blocking actually.  Went back over his stuff after @AlexGreen#20 mentioned he felt his second level blocking was his best quality, where I felt it was something he frequently struggled with.  Think we were talking about different things in the end (mostly I just think he has a tendency to scrape too far upfield on things going off tackle or when he needs to work off a combo), but I see what he was saying as well.  They regularly used Deguara as a lead blocker on outside runs that went way outside, think tosses and the like, and he reliably was able to square his man up and get a hat on him.  He also puts in the effort to get his man turned, even on blocks where he's late or doesn't get good contact, and I think it's going to really show up with Jones.  For all the talk that the team is clearly moving on from Jones, Deguara is the type of FB/move blocker that should play best with Jones.  He can consistently give him a screen to cut off of downfield and outside, and that's really all Jones needs to hit the big play.

My question is how much strength can he add. If he can't be a strong blocking Y (not Lewis, but a guy who can ocasionally seal an edge) I really hate this pick.

Upgrading Tonyan's judgement, move blocking, and want-to while decreasing his deep speed just seems like a step in the wrong direction.

[Beast]

I feel like this pick goes back to a reporter asking Aaron Rodgers why don't you go more hurry up (or was it audibles or both?), no huddle, and Rodgers basically said we can't, because we (as a team) are too new to this scheme and we don't have the personnel to do so.

I believe what Rodgers was saying, is to fully run this scheme in no huddle, they needed more versatile pieces, I feel like Gute believe Sternberger and Deguara (when fully coached up) are the missing verstile pieces where you can send in a group of guys and call any play.

As if they need Deguara to be a FB he can, if they want him as a WR he can, and everywhere in between. Offense can do anything with him. Though, he might be a jack of all, king of nothing. 

Also I'm not totally sure how much faster Tonyan is since he put on 20 pounds to become a TE. Faster, sure, but I'm not sure that much faster.

[MrBobGray]

On 7/4/2020 at 12:42 PM, AlexGreen#20 said:

My question is how much strength can he add. If he can't be a strong blocking Y (not Lewis, but a guy who can ocasionally seal an edge) I really hate this pick.

Upgrading Tonyan's judgement, move blocking, and want-to while decreasing his deep speed just seems like a step in the wrong direction.

So in theory I'd agree with you, but I'm pretty sure that Deguara was drafted specifically to replace Vitale.  Tonyan played a number of roles last season, but I don't think they necessarily wanted one of those to be TE/H-back blocker; I think he got those snaps as the year went on because Vitale couldn't block in space.  There's a clear role in MLF's offense for a guy out of the backfield that can get to his block sideline to sideline and can also fake it and go vertical.  They did this a few times with Vitale, but I think they would really like to focus on using the FB role on more counter action stuff; they went to Vitale on wheel routes, but you can see in some of the play designs that there's designed opportunity for a FB/H-back/TE/whatever who can get to the opposite edge of the formation and can be counted on to correctly run his route away from coverage downfield.  I've talked a lot about his ability to be split out, but I gotta be straight, good call on the UCF game as that was the one that made me realize that they were drafting him for his blocking ability as well.  Specifically, this play:

There's nothing genius or transcendent about it, but it's the kind of outside misdirection play the Packers run a lot of with MLF, and he plays it textbook.  Great job keeping his legs clear and avoiding the trash coming across, sets his blocking angle so the CB doesn't try to shoot it behind him and the WR can get position, then re-adjusts and takes his man right to the sideline.  If he can continue do this, seal the occasional edge, and catch some wheels/seams/out-n-ups from the backfield, he'll be worth the 3rd.

[MrBobGray]

Also, just because, let's all just take a minute on this Monday to enjoy the play directly before the one shown above:

 

[Shanedorf]

26 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

There's nothing genius or transcendent about it, but it's the kind of outside misdirection play the Packers run a lot of with MLF, and he plays it textbook.  Great job keeping his legs clear and avoiding the trash coming across, sets his blocking angle so the CB doesn't try to shoot it behind him and the WR can get position, then re-adjusts and takes his man right to the sideline.  If he can continue do this, seal the occasional edge, and catch some wheels/seams/out-n-ups from the backfield, he'll be worth the 3rd.

thx for write ups, greatly appreciated.
Is it fair to say that with Josiah, he will mainly be blocking guys who are already in motion vs a TE like Marcedes Lewis who is trying to move guys who are more anchored and maintaining a gap ?

[Beast]

1 hour ago, MrBobGray said:

So in theory I'd agree with you, but I'm pretty sure that Deguara was drafted specifically to replace Vitale.  Tonyan played a number of roles last season, but I don't think they necessarily wanted one of those to be TE/H-back blocker; I think he got those snaps as the year went on because Vitale couldn't block in space.  There's a clear role in MLF's offense for a guy out of the backfield that can get to his block sideline to sideline and can also fake it and go vertical.  They did this a few times with Vitale, but I think they would really like to focus on using the FB role on more counter action stuff; they went to Vitale on wheel routes, but you can see in some of the play designs that there's designed opportunity for a FB/H-back/TE/whatever who can get to the opposite edge of the formation and can be counted on to correctly run his route away from coverage downfield.   

I disagree that it's to replace Vitale, as if Vitale was here, I think they would of selected him anyways.

 

I do agree they drafted him to fill the Mr. Verstile role, as Rodgers said, they couldn't realt go no huddle in part because they didn't have the correct pieces and how they offenses uses so many different pieces from one play to another, they need some extremely verstile chess pieces to be able to go no huddle.

Sternberger and Deguara are those... they can be used as WRs to FBs and anywhere in between. Once they fell comfortable with them, I expect they'll often be in the no huddle offense giving them the most verstile and ability to audible too.

[MrBobGray]

2 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

thx for write ups, greatly appreciated.
Is it fair to say that with Josiah, he will mainly be blocking guys who are already in motion vs a TE like Marcedes Lewis who is trying to move guys who are more anchored and maintaining a gap ?

Yeah, that's my expectation for him.  He really does excel at being able to find his man in space and get him locked up, and that's a lot more difficult than it seems when you're moving laterally like that and you don't actually know what the runner behind you is doing.  You need to be able to find your man, mirror him in space on the approach, and then get your weight into him without being shed, and do all that while sprinting as fast as you can toward the sideline (which means you need to make these determinations as space is rapidly depleting.)  It's the FB equivalent of a 4-3 WLB that can run the play down from behind and knows exactly where and when to shoot the gap and when to keep moving laterally.  It seems easy until you see how much difficulty a lot of elite NFL athletes have with it.  

This isn't to say that I think Deguara's an elite talent, and I'm wary of pushing too far and overstating his skill set.  He's a nice fit for MLF's offense and he's shown the ability to make the kind of blocks that the team needs that aren't as easy to find off the street.  Past that, it's really going to depend if he can keep growing as a receiver and develop the pop and power to make actually move defenders out of their gaps.

Edited July 6, 2020 by MrBobGray

[AlexGreen#20]

3 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

So in theory I'd agree with you, but I'm pretty sure that Deguara was drafted specifically to replace Vitale.  Tonyan played a number of roles last season, but I don't think they necessarily wanted one of those to be TE/H-back blocker; I think he got those snaps as the year went on because Vitale couldn't block in space.  There's a clear role in MLF's offense for a guy out of the backfield that can get to his block sideline to sideline and can also fake it and go vertical.  They did this a few times with Vitale, but I think they would really like to focus on using the FB role on more counter action stuff; they went to Vitale on wheel routes, but you can see in some of the play designs that there's designed opportunity for a FB/H-back/TE/whatever who can get to the opposite edge of the formation and can be counted on to correctly run his route away from coverage downfield.  I've talked a lot about his ability to be split out, but I gotta be straight, good call on the UCF game as that was the one that made me realize that they were drafting him for his blocking ability as well.  Specifically, this play:

There's nothing genius or transcendent about it, but it's the kind of outside misdirection play the Packers run a lot of with MLF, and he plays it textbook.  Great job keeping his legs clear and avoiding the trash coming across, sets his blocking angle so the CB doesn't try to shoot it behind him and the WR can get position, then re-adjusts and takes his man right to the sideline.  If he can continue do this, seal the occasional edge, and catch some wheels/seams/out-n-ups from the backfield, he'll be worth the 3rd.

I'm with you through all of this. I just don't think that these assignments are difficult enough and require a rare enough skillset to be worth a third round pick when Tonyan can do a meh job of it and be a better vertical threat.

[AlexGreen#20]

11 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

Yeah, that's my expectation for him.  He really does excel at being able to find his man in space and get him locked up, and that's a lot more difficult than it seems when you're moving laterally like that and you don't actually know what the runner behind you is doing.  You need to be able to find your man, mirror him in space on the approach, and then get your weight into him without being shed, and do all that while sprinting as fast as you can toward the sideline (which means you need to make these determinations as space is rapidly depleting.)  It's the FB equivalent of a 4-3 WLB that can run the play down from behind and knows exactly where and when to shoot the gap and when to keep moving laterally.  It seems easy until you see how much difficulty a lot of elite NFL athletes have with it.  

This isn't to say that I think Deguara's an elite talent, and I'm wary of pushing too far and overstating his skill set.  He's a nice fit for MLF's offense and he's shown the ability to make the kind of blocks that the team needs that aren't as easy to find off the street.  Past that, it's really going to depend if he can keep growing as a receiver and develop the pop and power to make actually move defenders out of their gaps.

Extremely well explained

[Leader]

17 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I'm with you through all of this. I just don't think that these assignments are difficult enough and require a rare enough skillset to be worth a third round pick when Tonyan can do a meh job of it and be a better vertical threat.

I'm somewhat ambivalent about Mr. Tonyan. For various reasons, it seems he's been unable to put a consistent game together. Will he? Hopefully. But will he? I'm not so sure.
I cant gauge how much that hip injury took out of him. Seems like a lot. Time certainly - but he seemed a non-factor most of last year.

Hoping for the best, but he's in the prove it to me phase of his career.

[MrBobGray]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I'm with you through all of this. I just don't think that these assignments are difficult enough and require a rare enough skillset to be worth a third round pick when Tonyan can do a meh job of it and be a better vertical threat.

So here's the thing about that:

I don't think there's a player on this team I have less sense about what the team thinks of him than Tonyan. 

Like, I agree with you in theory; I think Tonyan is a much more dangerous receiver downfield, and honestly isn't even far behind Deguara in move blocking.  He at least shows understanding of momentum and aiming points and can regularly get his man on the ground on downfield cut blocks.  If I could remember which game it was I'd absolutely be pulling up a gif of Vitale utterly blowing a downfield cut block and then watching helplessly from the ground while his man makes the tackle.  Comedy gold, now that he's not on the team, was pretty tragic the first thirty times I watched it during the season (I'm lying it was hilarious then too).  I think the offense is probably objectively more dangerous overall with Tonyan at that spot, as compared to Deguara; it's clearly nowhere near the powerhouse of the Danny Vitale Mighty Harbor Seal Leg Dive offense, but alas our bouldery friend has departed and we'll just have to make do with a guy who can actually block, catch and run routes.

Only issue is I honestly couldn't tell you if this team thinks Tonyan should be cut or is about to break out.  With Jimmy and Marcedes taking all the snaps, there was just no way for the young guys to get on the field for significant snaps, maybe.  Maybe?  Or maybe the team didn't feel Aaron was targeting the TE enough to be worth slighting the vets to give Tonyan the snaps, let's start a random conspiracy for laughs.  But Tonyan has wheels and downfield receiving ability that the vets didn't, and the team didn't really mind not using it, and whatever the reason it makes it hard to know exactly what they plan to do with him in the future.  I see the rationale behind getting four cheap years at a position you're hoping to use a lot of, even if you're right on paper about the comparative value of the two.

[vegas492]

17 hours ago, Leader said:

I'm somewhat ambivalent about Mr. Tonyan. For various reasons, it seems he's been unable to put a consistent game together. Will he? Hopefully. But will he? I'm not so sure.
I cant gauge how much that hip injury took out of him. Seems like a lot. Time certainly - but he seemed a non-factor most of last year.

Hoping for the best, but he's in the prove it to me phase of his career.

You really shouldn't be ambivalent about Tonyan.  You should be pretty happy with him.

After all, last year was what, his second or third season playing TE....  And he was a pseudo "starter".  Got a lot of reps.  Pretty good in the run game.  And...he was in year one of a new offense.

All that from an undrafted free agent that made a position change.

Like most tight ends, it'll take a while for him to come into his own.

I really like the idea of Tonyan, Sternberger and Deguara for the next few years.

[Leader]

26 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

You really shouldn't be ambivalent about Tonyan.  You should be pretty happy with him. After all, last year was what, his second or third season playing TE....  And he was a pseudo "starter".  Got a lot of reps.  Pretty good in the run game.  And...he was in year one of a new offense. All that from an undrafted free agent that made a position change. Like most tight ends, it'll take a while for him to come into his own. I really like the idea of Tonyan, Sternberger and Deguara for the next few years.

I'll believe it when I see it. Thats not a dig on the guy just recognition that he's yet to show he's got what it takes at this level. A play here - a (well spaced....) play there - doesnt lend itself to confidence that consistent production is just around the corner. I certainly hope so though.

[vegas492]

34 minutes ago, Leader said:

I'll believe it when I see it. Thats not a dig on the guy just recognition that he's yet to show he's got what it takes at this level. A play here - a (well spaced....) play there - doesnt lend itself to confidence that consistent production is just around the corner. I certainly hope so though.

What you just described is mostly every tight end drafted over the last decade.

I get what you are saying, but in Tonyan's case, he's an undrafted free agent who changed positions.  It takes time.  To get any good reps from him in year two is a good thing.

But yah, he needs to take a pretty large leap forward this year.  It is time.  No doubt.