Evaluate the Vikings 2020 draft

[RpMc]

I was going to watch 2018 today to see if there are any differences.

Edited May 8, 2020 by RpMc

[RpMc]

NVM, Wonnum didn't play in the 2018 game.

[RpMc]

Watching Wonnum, he definitely doesn't have varied pass rush moves - he's got the very good push/pull move around the edge, but currently lacks inside counters.  Clemson's quick passing game is very similar to what teams do against us to minimize the pass rush as much as possible.

I also hate the way Muschamp used him; he is a little stiff and trying to have him play in coverage, even in the flats, is a not a great recipe for success.

Edited May 8, 2020 by RpMc

[Klomp]

22 minutes ago, RpMc said:

Watching Wonnum, he definitely doesn't have varied pass rush moves - he's got the very good push/pull move around the edge, but currently lacks inside counters.  Clemson's quick passing game is very similar to what teams do against us to minimize the pass rush as much as possible.

I also hate the way Muschamp used him; he is a little stiff and trying to have him play in coverage, even in the flats, is a not a great recipe for success.

Remember when Danielle Hunter had no pass rush moves when we drafted him?

[RpMc]

Just now, Klomp said:

Remember when Danielle Hunter had no pass rush moves when we drafted him?

Yup, which is exactly why I give Patterson and Co the benefit of the doubt - I'm very interested to see Wonnum transition to a guy who has his hand in the dirt the majority of the time.

[Klomp]

Just now, RpMc said:

Yup, which is exactly why I give Patterson and Co the benefit of the doubt - I'm very interested to see Wonnum transition to a guy who has his hand in the dirt the majority of the time.

So we have the Hunter comp of no pass rush moves and the Weatherly comp of someone who played a lot in a two-point stance. This is gonna be fun.....

[Krauser]

On 2020-05-08 at 11:07 AM, RpMc said:

Watching Wonnum, he definitely doesn't have varied pass rush moves - he's got the very good push/pull move around the edge, but currently lacks inside counters.  Clemson's quick passing game is very similar to what teams do against us to minimize the pass rush as much as possible.

I also hate the way Muschamp used him; he is a little stiff and trying to have him play in coverage, even in the flats, is a not a great recipe for success.

I watched most of the first half of Clemson’s offense vs Wonnum and friends. Didn’t see much difference compared to the more recent cutup of the Alabama game. 

He does have some power in his punch but he isn’t getting around the corner or driving the tackle back into the QB’s lap. To be fair, much of the passing attack is the quick game, and he ends up covering an underneath zone fairly often, so there aren’t many true pass rush reps. But for instance on a the downfield completion to Tee Higgins early in the 2nd quarter, Wonnum has a true one-on-one vs the RT and the QB does hold the ball long enough for an intermediate route to come open — and Wonnum doesn’t get pressure. 

I’m actually more annoyed / worried about is performance in run defense. Several times he gets blocked comfortably out of the play by a TE (#80). I looked up the Clemson TE and he’s a bigger guy, 260 pounds without a lot of receiving ability, but still — an every down DE needs to be able to beat a TE run blocking, at least sometimes. The same problem for Wonnum showed up several times in the Alabama game. 

[Purplexing]

Too few draft picks.

[SteelKing728]

53 minutes ago, Purplexing said:

Too few draft picks.

Hopefully we can get a few more this next draft. I believe we are guaranteed 10 now with 2 comp picks likely coming our way.

[Vikes22]

26 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

Hopefully we can get a few more this next draft. I believe we are guaranteed 10 now with 2 comp picks likely coming our way.

We do have more. We have 12 picks already. Our 7 picks, bills 4th, Bears 4th, Ravens 5th ( actually is Steelers pick), and probably 2 comp picks..

[Krauser]

The picks they used this year:

• 1.22 (from BUF for Diggs): 253 points on the Rich Hill chart
• 1.31 (from SF, trade down from own pick at 25): 190 points
• 2.58 (own pick): 93 points
• 3.89 (own pick): 46 points
• 4.117 (extra pick from SF): 24 points
• 4.130 (from NO, trade down from the late 3rd comp pick they got for Richardson): 17 points
• 4.132 (own pick): 17 points
• 5.169 (extra pick from NO): 8 points
• 5.176 (extra pick from SF): 7 points
• 6.203 (extra pick from NO): 4 points
• 6.205 (own pick): 4 points
• 7.225 (from BAL): 1 point
• 7.244 (extra pick from NO): 1 point
• 7.249 (own comp pick): 1 point
• 7.253 (own comp pick): 1 point

5.155 (from BUF, for Diggs) was traded to CHI for their 2021 4th
5.170 (own pick) was traded to BAL for Vedvik. 
6.201 (from BUF, for Diggs) and 7.219 (from MIA, for Isidora) were traded to BAL for 7.225 and the PIT 5th round pick in 2021

Estimated value of their future additional picks:

• ~3.104 (late 3rd) comp pick for Waynes: 32 points
• ~4.115 (early 4th) CHI pick: 25 points
• ~4.130 (late 4th) BUF pick: 17 points
• ~5.166 (mid 3rd) PIT pick: 9 points
• ~6.212 (comp pick for Alexander): 4 points 

Including their own picks, they should start with two 3rd, three 4ths, two 5ths and two 6ths — a similar amount of mid-round capital to what was created this year by trading down with SF and NO. They won’t have the big hit of a second 1st round pick, but they should be able to come away with a big draft class that tilts more toward mid round value and less toward UDFA-quality players in the 7th. 

Edited May 10, 2020 by Krauser

[SteelKing728]

6 hours ago, Vikes22 said:

We do have more. We have 12 picks already. Our 7 picks, bills 4th, Bears 4th, Ravens 5th ( actually is Steelers pick), and probably 2 comp picks..

I should have said 10 guaranteed picks along with 2 probable comp picks (they have to stay on a team without being cut until the conclusion of week 10).

In 2018, we lost out on a 3rd round comp pick because Arizona cut Sam Bradford week 9, just one week before we'd get credited for him.

(Bradford managed to really do us over for 3 straight seasons)

[Purplepride323]

22 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

I should have said 10 guaranteed picks along with 2 probable comp picks (they have to stay on a team without being cut until the conclusion of week 10).

In 2018, we lost out on a 3rd round comp pick because Arizona cut Sam Bradford week 9, just one week before we'd get credited for him.

(Bradford managed to really do us over for 3 straight seasons)

Trae Waynes has $15 million guaranteed for signing. I doubt he gets cut in his first year. 

[whitehops]

6 hours ago, Purplepride323 said:

Trae Waynes has $15 million guaranteed for signing. I doubt he gets cut in his first year. 

There's Mack Alexander too though. His dead money is $1.5 million and his cap savings if cut are about $2.5 million. Obviously he's not likely to get cut unless something goes very wrong but losing a comp pick over Sam Bradford has taught me not to count the eggs before they hatch.

 

That said, I'm still holding out hope that a dozen of the players that count towards the formula get cut so that we get a 7th rounder for Sendejo. He'd usually qualify for a 7th rounder comp pick but there were a lot of players that qualify this year so the eleven players that would usually garner a 7th rounder don't get anything. The NFL only awards 32 compensatory picks each year so those 11 teams are SOL. 

 

ALSO: we better hope that Waynes stays healthy and plays well. I believe snaps/accolades/etc. factor into the formula a bit and since Waynes has the lowest AAV of players projected to be awarded a third round pick for compensation (and the same as Robert Quinn who is projected as a 4th right now), if he slips in any area we are very likely to get a 4th rounder instead of a 3rd rounder for him. 

[Cearbhall]

14 hours ago, whitehops said:

ALSO: we better hope that Waynes stays healthy and plays well. I believe snaps/accolades/etc. factor into the formula a bit and since Waynes has the lowest AAV of players projected to be awarded a third round pick for compensation (and the same as Robert Quinn who is projected as a 4th right now), if he slips in any area we are very likely to get a 4th rounder instead of a 3rd rounder for him. 

With the new CBA, there is no longer much mystery. To the extent you believe snaps/accolades factor into the formula, quoted below is Appendix V, Paragraph 2 of the CBA.

Paragraph 1 says that players must be ranked in the top 35% of the league to qualify. That is a change which will cause less contracts to qualify. This effects both net gains and net losses so while there were less qualifying gains there would likewise be less qualifying losses.

Paragraph 2:

Quote

2. The following calculation, based on a player’s Average Yearly Compensation, honors and game participation, shall be used to determine a CFA’s ranking in percentage terms against all players on rosters at the conclusion of a regular season: (a) All CFAs and all other League players on rosters at the conclusion of the regular season shall be ranked in ascending order by their Average Yearly Compensation, which shall be determined by dividing a player’s Gross Salary for all contract years by the contract’s Maximum Possible Term as defined in Paragraph 9 of this Appendix V. A player’s Gross Salary shall include: (a) signing bonus; (b) option bonus; (c) Paragraph 5 Salary; (d) roster bonus (including per-game bonuses, which shall count in full); and (e) reporting bonus regardless of whether such amounts are earned or considered “likely to be earned.” A player’s Gross Salary shall also include: (a) official performance incentives listed in Exhibits A, B and C of CBA Article 13; (b) salary escalators of any kind; and (c) bonuses within the player’s sole control (e.g., without limitation, offseason workout bonuses, and weight bonuses) that are earned by the player in the first League Year of the contract, or that are considered “likely to be earned,” either upon execution of the contract, or as the result of the year-end netting of incentives. For the purpose of determining a CFA’s ranking among all other League players on rosters at the conclusion of the regular season, players who signed Player Contracts for a prior League Year (i.e., prior to the League Year in which the CFA signed with the new Club), the above calculations shall be modified to include any of the above-listed bonuses, incentives or escalators that are earned by the player in such prior League Years, or that are considered “likely to be earned,” either upon execution of the contract, or as the result of the year-end netting of incentives. Subject to the above definition of Gross Salary, the player with the lowest Average Yearly Compensation shall be ranked first and thereby receive one point, with the second ranked player receiving two points. —400— (b) All players shall be assigned additional points based on honors or participation, as follows: (1) Selected 1st Team ALL NFL by PFWA or 1st Team ALL PRO by AP: 20 points. (2) Selected All Conference by PFWA (except if selected ALL NFL or ALL PRO above): 5 points. (3) One point for each percent of the total offensive/defensive plays in which the player participated (excluding special teams) provided that the player participated in a minimum of 25% of the offensive/ defensive plays (excluding special teams). For example: 67% participation equals 67 points, 0% to 24.99% participation equals no points. Exception: in the case of punters and place-kickers, 1 point will be awarded for each punt attempted and 1 point for each punt inside the 20-yard line during the regular season for the punters, and 2 points for each field goal attempted and 1 point for each field goal made during the regular season for place-kickers. (c) The sum of the numerical values in (a) and (b) above shall represent each player’s Final Numerical Value. (d) Each CFA’s Final Numerical Value shall be measured in percentile terms against all players’ Final Numerical Values to determine the position of a Club’s Compensatory Draft Selection, if any.

Paragraph 3 stipulates that only clubs that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained will get compensatory picks. It spells out the rules for how the qualifying contracts cancel each other out. Also, it gives tells us how to determine which draft round a qualifying free agent loss/addition will count at.

Paragraph 4 is the ten-year veteran rule. It looks pretty much the same as what AdamJT had reverse engineered previously.

Paragraphs 5 through 11 spell out other nuances and rules such as net value loss compensatory picks, how transition and franchise players are figured into the formula,  and considerations for injured players. The most interesting of these, to me, is Paragraph 11, which seems to be new with this CBA, allowing teams to designate certain additions as an excluded (from the compensatory formula) free agent pursuant to some conditions, most notably that it must be a one year contract below a threshold price that is adjusted throughout the duration of the CBA in accordance with the rule.