Tk3 Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 1 minute ago, The Orca said: Nope. Dont need a role claim...just need a character have you roleclaimed yet? mr demands? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwAg Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Whicker said: @SwAg will needs to vote today or die, as he also did not vote on day 5. MD4L Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 Just now, Tk3 said: have you roleclaimed yet? mr demands? I have not specifically Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 I'm just gonna post some thoughts as I try to solve the endgame here, comment on them or whatever. - It certainly appears there are four Lord Souls in the game. Scum haven't hit any of them. At minimum, we have at least two lynches before scum can win--and that's assuming they can kill twice each of the next two Nights, which I doubt. - With only 22 players in the game, it is very, very hard for me to believe there were 6 Chosen Undead at the start of the game, at least all in the same faction. Given that they gain abilities for killing certain Town roles, and apparently only needed four kills in total to win, Town would have been in a nigh-unwinnable situation if there were more than 5 in the Mafia faction because this game went about as well as it could have for Town. I don't see how Town could win this if we lynch scum four days in a row starting Day 3 and still be in danger of LyLo at this stage. We can afford to make a mistake--just not two or three. - Forge basically gave up, so I think he knew his faction was screwed. That further cements my belief that his faction is just one person at this point. Further, the Dome target last Night only makes sense in the context of scum being scared that he could block them in perpetuity going forward, thus ensuring their loss by default. Matts may have done it to try to keep Dome from CCing him on the RB N1, which of course Dome was smart enough to get out there during the Night phase. - Scum already either know who remaining Lord Souls are or can make an educated guess. They also got a two-shot ability to narrow down that search when Mega Ron died. Frankly, they've got a great shot at hitting one by just blindly targeting people. Let's not pretend otherwise. - Drops look something like this: Rack/Rite of Kindling D1 (hid next drop), Squire (nothing, lol), Malf/Artorias (2-shot jail), Daboyle/Iron Golem (???), Mega Ron/Manus (2-shot soul invest), JoshStradaymus/I forget (???), and now Dome and bcb. I am guessing Josh gave them a double-kill last Night. Based on this, Matts is suspicious AF since his only successful jails were AFTER Malf died, and our Town RBer states that he didn't block Matts on the Night Matts claimed his ability failed. I'm worried about what kind of abilities scum get for having two kills this past Night, but it still likely isn't enough to sway the game in scum's favor. - MD4L has claimed exactly one gift target for the entire game. He also claimed it was successful, but I have zero evidence of having received a gift. That's suspicious AF as well. Either @Matts4313 or @MD4L needs to be the lynch today. Both of them need to claim everything, zero holding back of any role-related info they can give us. Virtually everyone else is off the table. I think this is a pretty simple endgame, and if it carries on past the next Day phase, there's definitely some wild shenanigans going on, and I personally am going to have to look real hard at my reads and what I know at that point (assuming I'm not dead by then). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 Where I said "all in the same faction," I meant "all in the same chat." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwAg Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 Blue convinced me with that post he made after my vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 @The Orca, you're cleared twice over in my mind. I don't need a character claim from you, but we do need information on your Night action--and I know you have one. There isn't a lot of options left for what you can do, tbh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Blue said: I'm just gonna post some thoughts as I try to solve the endgame here, comment on them or whatever. - It certainly appears there are four Lord Souls in the game. Scum haven't hit any of them. At minimum, we have at least two lynches before scum can win--and that's assuming they can kill twice each of the next two Nights, which I doubt. - With only 22 players in the game, it is very, very hard for me to believe there were 6 Chosen Undead at the start of the game, at least all in the same faction. Given that they gain abilities for killing certain Town roles, and apparently only needed four kills in total to win, Town would have been in a nigh-unwinnable situation if there were more than 5 in the Mafia faction because this game went about as well as it could have for Town. I don't see how Town could win this if we lynch scum four days in a row starting Day 3 and still be in danger of LyLo at this stage. We can afford to make a mistake--just not two or three. - Forge basically gave up, so I think he knew his faction was screwed. That further cements my belief that his faction is just one person at this point. Further, the Dome target last Night only makes sense in the context of scum being scared that he could block them in perpetuity going forward, thus ensuring their loss by default. Matts may have done it to try to keep Dome from CCing him on the RB N1, which of course Dome was smart enough to get out there during the Night phase. - Scum already either know who remaining Lord Souls are or can make an educated guess. They also got a two-shot ability to narrow down that search when Mega Ron died. Frankly, they've got a great shot at hitting one by just blindly targeting people. Let's not pretend otherwise. - Drops look something like this: Rack/Rite of Kindling D1 (hid next drop), Squire (nothing, lol), Malf/Artorias (2-shot jail), Daboyle/Iron Golem (???), Mega Ron/Manus (2-shot soul invest), JoshStradaymus/I forget (???), and now Dome and bcb. I am guessing Josh gave them a double-kill last Night. Based on this, Matts is suspicious AF since his only successful jails were AFTER Malf died, and our Town RBer states that he didn't block Matts on the Night Matts claimed his ability failed. I'm worried about what kind of abilities scum get for having two kills this past Night, but it still likely isn't enough to sway the game in scum's favor. - MD4L has claimed exactly one gift target for the entire game. He also claimed it was successful, but I have zero evidence of having received a gift. That's suspicious AF as well. Either @Matts4313 or @MD4L needs to be the lynch today. Both of them need to claim everything, zero holding back of any role-related info they can give us. Virtually everyone else is off the table. I think this is a pretty simple endgame, and if it carries on past the next Day phase, there's definitely some wild shenanigans going on, and I personally am going to have to look real hard at my reads and what I know at that point (assuming I'm not dead by then). Now THIS, is a fantastic and helpful summary 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, The Orca said: Nope. Dont need a role claim...just need a character He especially does not need to give a character. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadbuff Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Tk3 said: Now THIS, is a fantastic and helpful summary Agreed, i have to go back and re read some stuff. Very easy to miss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 Just now, Blue said: @The Orca, you're cleared twice over in my mind. I don't need a character claim from you, but we do need information on your Night action--and I know you have one. There isn't a lot of options left for what you can do, tbh. JOAT- 4 moves, used first four nights, now vanilla Hobo used no move N1 No one visited Mega N2 No one used a move on Dome N3 Swoosh visited himself N4 Matts 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadbuff Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, Blue said: I'm just gonna post some thoughts as I try to solve the endgame here, comment on them or whatever. - It certainly appears there are four Lord Souls in the game. Scum haven't hit any of them. At minimum, we have at least two lynches before scum can win--and that's assuming they can kill twice each of the next two Nights, which I doubt. - With only 22 players in the game, it is very, very hard for me to believe there were 6 Chosen Undead at the start of the game, at least all in the same faction. Given that they gain abilities for killing certain Town roles, and apparently only needed four kills in total to win, Town would have been in a nigh-unwinnable situation if there were more than 5 in the Mafia faction because this game went about as well as it could have for Town. I don't see how Town could win this if we lynch scum four days in a row starting Day 3 and still be in danger of LyLo at this stage. We can afford to make a mistake--just not two or three. - Forge basically gave up, so I think he knew his faction was screwed. That further cements my belief that his faction is just one person at this point. Further, the Dome target last Night only makes sense in the context of scum being scared that he could block them in perpetuity going forward, thus ensuring their loss by default. Matts may have done it to try to keep Dome from CCing him on the RB N1, which of course Dome was smart enough to get out there during the Night phase. - Scum already either know who remaining Lord Souls are or can make an educated guess. They also got a two-shot ability to narrow down that search when Mega Ron died. Frankly, they've got a great shot at hitting one by just blindly targeting people. Let's not pretend otherwise. - Drops look something like this: Rack/Rite of Kindling D1 (hid next drop), Squire (nothing, lol), Malf/Artorias (2-shot jail), Daboyle/Iron Golem (???), Mega Ron/Manus (2-shot soul invest), JoshStradaymus/I forget (???), and now Dome and bcb. I am guessing Josh gave them a double-kill last Night. Based on this, Matts is suspicious AF since his only successful jails were AFTER Malf died, and our Town RBer states that he didn't block Matts on the Night Matts claimed his ability failed. I'm worried about what kind of abilities scum get for having two kills this past Night, but it still likely isn't enough to sway the game in scum's favor. - MD4L has claimed exactly one gift target for the entire game. He also claimed it was successful, but I have zero evidence of having received a gift. That's suspicious AF as well. Either @Matts4313 or @MD4L needs to be the lynch today. Both of them need to claim everything, zero holding back of any role-related info they can give us. Virtually everyone else is off the table. I think this is a pretty simple endgame, and if it carries on past the next Day phase, there's definitely some wild shenanigans going on, and I personally am going to have to look real hard at my reads and what I know at that point (assuming I'm not dead by then). The jail attempts argument tho matts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 matts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swoosh Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, The Orca said: JOAT- 4 moves, used first four nights, now vanilla Hobo used no move N1 No one visited Mega N2 No one used a move on Dome N3 Swoosh visited himself N4 Matts it's true, but now scum knows I'm a sitting duck since I already protected myself and am now exposed. let's end this today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 I have one more tidbit of information, but I'm going to hold on to that until Matts and MD4L have claimed. We obviously don't know what abilities the Mafia started with, if any, but Swoosh targeting himself makes enough sense to me that he's a distant third on the lynch list. He should not be lynched until Matts and MD4L are both dead. @Pickle Rick, can we get a nice, complete list of your targets and results for the game, all in one place? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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