Per Mike Clay, who? Redskins will select #1 overall in 2021 draft

[Skins212689]

Just now, turtle28 said:

I’d say Terry is at least proven he can play, hard to predict him taking a huge step back but outside of that, I agree here.

My bad yea add Terry to that list. @naptownskinsfan

[naptownskinsfan]

8 hours ago, turtle28 said:

@naptownskinsfan Anything is possible, we could finish worst in the league, but I don’t see it. Last year we had an incredible amount of dysfunction all season which hurt our team and we still almost won 5 or 6 games. We were rooting for them to not win several games at the end of the year that they almost won and if Peterson had started week 1 and Keenum was better in the second half vs Phila in week 1, we probably win that game even w/ our D underperforming in the second half vs Phila.

We don’t have the dysfunction and we have better leadership and coaching. Our 4-3 scheme will also be simpler for the players to execute than the 3-4. The Jags, at least in paper have less talent than us. I also think you need to check out the Pats defensive depth chart, a lot of our starters would start on that D.  Our entire starting DL & maybe Settle would start over their starters since they are switching back to the 3-4. Our top 3 edge rushers are better than theirs, and Anderson is arguably better than their second best edge rusher. I also think Thomas Davis, Holcomb and SDH would start at WILB for them over their current starter there. Our top 3 corners are better than their #3 corner, but we don’t have an elite corner like Gilmore, and for sure Landon Collins would start over the coke dealer Patrick Chung. In fact, Collins would be the starting SS on both the Pats and Ravens Ds. Our edge rushers are better than Jaylon Ferguson of the Ravens too. 

Haskins is surely the key, but if he’s average, meaning 3200 yds passing 20 TDs and 15 or less ints, I think we win 5 games and we may win even more if Haskins is above average.

Yet there are the games that we did win, and could've lost as well.  They could have finished with no wins and picked #1 overall.  

You keep going back to this 4-3 defense being simpler for the players to execute.  What is your evidence of this?  I've given the list of scheme changes on this forum when they happened, and no defense finished better than 20 overall.  You have muscle memory from doing the same thing and it's an adjustment period.  The guys from Alabama played in a 3-4 there.  Sweat was in a 4-2-5 in college.  Matt Ioannidis played in a 3-4 in college.  Kerrigan has played in the 3-4 since being drafted.  The 4-3 is a lot of gap assignments and trusting the players next to you to know where they are supposed to be and cover their gaps, which is why your boy LaVar Arrington wasn't successful in this defense and found himself benched by Gregg Williams.  Del Rio's defense is very similar to Gregg Williams, one of the reasons he hired Williams to run his defense while he was head coach in Jacksonville.  

I only mentioned linebackers in that comparison with the Ravens and Patriots.  Perhaps I am not aware of depth chart changes, but the Patriots have usually had very good linebacker play.  My point still stands. 

Haskins is absolutely the key.  And I'm not asking or expecting him to take major steps forward, especially because the supporting cast isn't there yet.  But there are things you can look for, especially decision-making and leadership, that are growth indicators and if he really is the guy to continue leading the team forward.  These are highlighted even more when you are talking about a rebuilding season where there will absolutely be more losses than wins.  

[MikeT14]

17 minutes ago, Skins212689 said:

Blame Haskins while not giving him proven pieces. How is Haskins getting a Fair Shot to display his talent with unproven talent? Who else gets replaced if Your suggesting drafting Lawrence to replace Haskins? Also does Field's get considered as well? 

The only proven players in the Redskins Starting Lineup are Moses, Peterson, Scherff, and Roulier. Scherff and Roulier with no more than 5 years expericence. Yet Haskins would be the only one to blame in some minds. Instead of continuing to build around him. Starting with drafting Sewell out of Oregon. 

I won't comment on other people in the forum's thoughts, but mine was that Dwayne is an unknown. Therefore, it's easier for these analysts to assume he won't do well, because, frankly, the odds are stacked that way. Just like any other QB, a lot of teams hopes hinge on that.

[naptownskinsfan]

14 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Here’s what we have to remember and keep in perspective, the 49ers were 2-14 in 2018, no one projected they’d go to the playoffs, let  alone the Super Bowl mainly bc of the division they are in w/ the Rams who had just been to the Super Bowl and the Seahawks w/ Russell Wilson & Pete Carroll’s defense.

So, people should keep an open mind and not a closed mind about the Redskins improving.

Our projected O talent is better than the 49ers last year before the season except for Kittle and the flashes Garapolo had shown before he tore his ACL but him coming back from a torn ACL last year & how he would be was a major question mark. 
 

Our D & the 49ers D talent match up pretty equal value where they thought they were before the 2019 season and where we are now. The only difference there being they have Richard Sherman - we don’t have a CB on that level - but we have Landon Collins who is the best S on either team.

This is a horrible comparison.  One of the big reasons the 49ers went 2-14 was because Garapollo went down Week 3 with a torn ACL.  They were also starting Alfred Morris for a couple games because their running backs were decimated by injuries.  

Comparing Collins and Sherman is laughable.  Collins is a very good player, but comparing a box safety to a #1 corner considering their impacts and importance on the field is not a good comparison at all.  The 49ers also brought in Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander as well as Sherman to help improve the defense.  Their roster, despite what happened in the season, was on an upswing and merited those splurges in free agency.  We aren't there yet.  

[naptownskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

I won't comment on other people in the forum's thoughts, but mine was that Dwayne is an unknown. Therefore, it's easier for these analysts to assume he won't do well, because, frankly, the odds are stacked that way. Just like any other QB, a lot of teams hopes hinge on that.

Exactly.  Like I've said, it's going to be 2-5 wins, and the five wins depends on how well Haskins does.  

[naptownskinsfan]

24 minutes ago, Skins212689 said:

Blame Haskins while not giving him proven pieces. How is Haskins getting a Fair Shot to display his talent with unproven talent? Who else gets replaced if Your suggesting drafting Lawrence to replace Haskins? Also does Field's get considered as well? 

The only proven players in the Redskins Starting Lineup are Moses, Peterson, Scherff, and Roulier. Scherff and Roulier with no more than 5 years expericence. Yet Haskins would be the only one to blame in some minds. Instead of continuing to build around him. Starting with drafting Sewell out of Oregon. 

You don't solely look at statistical production though.  You want to see how he is progressing in making decisions, and how he leads the offense on and off the field and how he carries himself personally, how invested he is in his personal development and the development of others.  That is going to be what the coaching staff is looking at, not necessarily what numbers he will or won't put up.  

[Skins212689]

1 minute ago, naptownskinsfan said:

You don't solely look at statistical production though.  You want to see how he is progressing in making decisions, and how he leads the offense on and off the field and how he carries himself personally, how invested he is in his personal development and the development of others.  That is going to be what the coaching staff is looking at, not necessarily what numbers he will or won't put up.  

What has Haskins done to his Image to say draft Lawrence over him? Tua name is bigger than Jones, yet Gettlemen didn't replace Jones with Tua. All those things you mentioned Haskins was doing at the end of the year and has been doing throughout the offseason. 

 

[naptownskinsfan]

Just now, Skins212689 said:

What has Haskins done to his Image to say draft Lawrence over him? Tua name is bigger than Jones, yet Gettlemen didn't replace Jones with Tua. All those things you mentioned Haskins was doing at the end of the year and has been doing throughout the offseason. 

 

This new coaching staff has to see it first-hand.  Same with Joe Judge and the Giants, although the Giants aren't a good comparison since their main decision-maker is still there in Gettleman.  One half of the duo who drafted Haskins is still in DC, and kinda owns the team.  

[Jeezy Fanatic]

The only way the Redskins can be the number one pick and its not a referendum on Dwayne Haskins is if he gets a season ending injury very early in the year (and even then no guarantee they don't decide to move on). If Dwayne plays most of the season, and this team is number 1 pick bad, you can fully expect a new starting QB.

This isn't to say Haskins will suck this year, but if we're number 1 pick bad, it's probably safe to assume he did.

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, naptownskinsfan said:

This is a horrible comparison.  One of the big reasons the 49ers went 2-14 was because Garapollo went down Week 3 with a torn ACL.  They were also starting Alfred Morris for a couple games because their running backs were decimated by injuries.  

Comparing Collins and Sherman is laughable.  Collins is a very good player, but comparing a box safety to a #1 corner considering their impacts and importance on the field is not a good comparison at all.  The 49ers also brought in Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander as well as Sherman to help improve the defense.  Their roster, despite what happened in the season, was on an upswing and merited those splurges in free agency.  We aren't there yet.  

You might want to check the game logs of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford, also we have Kerrigan which is similar to having Dee Ford. Our question is that if Jon Allen and or Sweat along with Kerrigan can surpass what Erik Armstead and Dee Ford did for the 49ers last year at LDE, I think so. I think those 3 can combine for 20 plus sacks from that position and Jon Allen is a great run defender while Montez Sweat is a good run defender. And, that’s better than what Armstead & Ford were for the 49ers.

Ford missed 5 games, was a situational pass rusher, only had 14 tackles and 6.5 sacks. That sounds exactly like what we expect from Ryan Kerrigan this year.

Kwon Alexander only played 1/2 the season for the 49ers due to injury and only had 34 tackles during the regular season.

I also wasn’t comparing Sherman and Collins as players. I was just saying the 49ers had one good DB w/ 3 other starters who were question marks and that’s similar to the Redskins.

Edited May 5, 2020 by turtle28

[turtle28]

5 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

You keep going back to this 4-3 defense being simpler for the players to execute.  What is your evidence of this?  I've given the list of scheme changes on this forum when they happened, and no defense finished better than 20 overall.  You have muscle memory from doing the same thing and it's an adjustment period.  The guys from Alabama played in a 3-4 there.  Sweat was in a 4-2-5 in college.  Matt Ioannidis played in a 3-4 in college.  Kerrigan has played in the 3-4 since being drafted.  The 4-3 is a lot of gap assignments and trusting the players next to you to know where they are supposed to be and cover their gaps, which is why your boy LaVar Arrington wasn't successful in this defense and found himself benched by Gregg Williams.  Del Rio's defense is very similar to Gregg Williams, one of the reasons he hired Williams to run his defense while he was head coach in Jacksonville.  

I only mentioned linebackers in that comparison with the Ravens and Patriots.  Perhaps I am not aware of depth chart changes, but the Patriots have usually had very good linebacker play.  My point still stands. 

Haskins is absolutely the key.  And I'm not asking or expecting him to take major steps forward, especially because the supporting cast isn't there yet.  But there are things you can look for, especially decision-making and leadership, that are growth indicators and if he really is the guy to continue leading the team forward.  These are highlighted even more when you are talking about a rebuilding season where there will absolutely be more losses than wins.  

1. Haskins is a huge key but, if our D is around or top 10 and our running game is good, that will make the team a 5 win team, possibly better.

You need an example?
 

Look at the Redskins from 2015-2017. Good QB, at times great passing game, poor running game and poor defense and we went 9-7, 8-7-1 and 7-9 in those 3 seasons. They were the opposite of what we are now in those 3 seasons but even with just one good to elite segment of the team, they were able to be average.

2. It is widely known that a 3-4 D is very complex with all the different packages and responsibilities of the defenders. It requires the edge rushers to also have coverage responsibilities on top of their pass rush responsibilities. There are only 2 true LBs on the field which makes their job harder in terms of coverage and filling the holes in the running game. Also, for years we were running multiple different coverages in games and our young DBs were blowing assignments in the secondary. We needed to KISS (keep it simple stupid) our D all last decade bc our players weren’t used to/developed in our D and couldn’t execute what the coaches wanted them to but, we didn’t. We didn’t dumb down the defense for our personnel and it showed with all the blown assignments.
 

The Patriots lost Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins and Landon Roberts, their top 3 LBs after Donta Hightower. Right now their projected LBs in their 3-4 are:

ROLB: Shilique Calhoun or rookie Jon Uche

RILB: Donta Hightower (best LB on both teams)

LILB: JaWhaun Bentley who? A 2018 5th round rookie

LOLB: John Simon, Chase Winovich, 3rd round rookie Anfernee Jennings or Brandon Copeland a FA from the Jets

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by turtle28

[offbyone]

The only way the redskins get the number 1 pick is if the season doesn't happen.  Because the next reason would be because Rivera can't even coach slightly better than Callahan.

[Jeezy Fanatic]

Look, not doing a bit, there's plenty of reasons to believe that next year could be very bad:

1) We have no left tackle to speak of, a new starter at left guard, Morgan Moses was awful last year. There's alot to be concerned about on the offensive front.

2) A second year QB going into a new offense who has not been able to work out with the new coach / OC in person to date. While he got better as the year went last year, there's certainly still plenty to prove, and he need to show the last few games was a preview of things to come.

3) We have no proven weapons on the offensive side of the ball to speak of sans Terry. Guice hasn't proven he can stay healthy, AP is old, the WRs are meh, we don't even have a starting TE. If you have an injury early in the year it may not be long until your top receiving option is Jeremy Sprinkle

4) The defense was very bad last year despite its talent. What if Chase Young comes in year one and is only an average starter? What if the back half of the secondary doesn't progress? A top 10 defense is no guarantee. We were 27th in PPG and YPG last year and are running back with basically the same squad save Chase Young, there's certainly reason to doubt a move to the top 10.

Again, not a bit, because I don't expect us to be the #1 pick, but as you look at those 4 points above, there's plenty of reason to see why an outsider could think we'd be in the running. Unproven QB / Bad OL / Lack of Weapons / Last year's 27th ranked defense is certainly a good way to end up there.

[lavar703]

3 hours ago, Skins212689 said:

Blame Haskins while not giving him proven pieces. How is Haskins getting a Fair Shot to display his talent with unproven talent? Who else gets replaced if Your suggesting drafting Lawrence to replace Haskins? Also does Field's get considered as well? 

The only proven players in the Redskins Starting Lineup are Moses, Peterson, Scherff, and Roulier. Scherff and Roulier with no more than 5 years expericence. Yet Haskins would be the only one to blame in some minds. Instead of continuing to build around him. Starting with drafting Sewell out of Oregon. 

While it wouldn’t be fair at all, if the Redskins end up with the first pick they’re taking Lawrence. I would trade the pick and take Sewell but that’s me. 

[e16bball]

By point differential, which is one of the cleaner ways of evaluating quality and projecting forward, only the Dolphins were worse last year. And with them, you’re talking about a team that won 5 of their last 9 games, so there’s clearly a sense that they’re a team on the upswing. So from the very beginning of many analyses, the Redskins are going to be starting out at the very rear. 

In terms of additions and subtractions people care about, the Redskins basically added Chase Young to an already good group of pass-rushers and subtracted the left side of their OL. They failed to fill most of their roster holes/needs, which is a big way that observers determine who they think will improve. From a personnel standpoint, pretty easy to see how folks would view them as mostly stagnant. 

One of the big things we have to hang our hat on is the improvement we saw with Haskins. But these computer models aren’t really going to see that. They’re looking at the whole picture, which includes the two disasters when he came in off the bench — most rational humans would largely disregard those games as meaningless in the long run, but the computers treat as equally valuable data. And overall, the numbers say Haskins was pretty bad last year. Given that they got him no help in the offseason, it’s hard to blame an outsider for concluding he’s likely to fail next season. 

The one big improvement we seem to have made is in coaching, particularly in terms of Rivera and Del Rio compared to Gruden and Manusky. But that advantage is going to be limited by the restraints of this offseason, and is Rivera that great a coach that his mere presence and genius will elevate a moribund roster? To me, he seems more like the kind of guy who makes a greater difference with more time to work with a team and impose his values and expectations on them. I don’t think it’s an instant fix. 

In the end, I think I’d bet on the Redskins to win 5-6 games. But it could get really ugly, especially on offense. Imagine if the whole left side of the line collapses. Or if, god forbid, Scary Terry gets hurt — we’d definitely have the worst receiving options in football then, arguably perhaps in the recent history of football. That could get brutal with a young QB as well. It’s certainly not out of the realm of reasonable possibility that they could end up picking #1. When you really think about it, how many teams are you sure are worse than the Redskins?