Can a Case be made for Keenum...?

[vikingsrule]

2 hours ago, Klomp said:

I'm not looking at the results and assuming we'd play 50 offensive linemen during the season like we did last year, as you seem to be doing.

I'm saying when the injury happened, and seeing the pieces we had on the roster and the potential the group had going into the season, I would absolutely make the trade again. Bradford wasn't the reason the team went 3-8 down the stretch.....losing half the team to injury was.

The teams health is being over exaggerated a bit here. Yes we went through several different tackles and lost Peterson (who looked ineffective anyway). What other major injuries occurred that I'm forgetting about?

We had the same interior line for most of the year, they just weren't very good.

the Vikes were about as talented as any .500 team last year. Not sure we were a QB away in the end. I can appreciate the trade when it was made, it was a desperation move no matter how it's spun, and it backfired because Bradford was healthy for one year and missed the playoffs. And we lost out on a top 15 pick.

[Klomp]

16 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

The teams health is being over exaggerated a bit here. Yes we went through several different tackles and lost Peterson (who looked ineffective anyway). What other major injuries occurred that I'm forgetting about?

We had the same interior line for most of the year, they just weren't very good.

the Vikes were about as talented as any .500 team last year. Not sure we were a QB away in the end. I can appreciate the trade when it was made, it was a desperation move no matter how it's spun, and it backfired because Bradford was healthy for one year and missed the playoffs. And we lost out on a top 15 pick.

There was almost always someone out along the OL. We didn't have a 5-man group start three consecutive games until Week 15. Sounds like a lot of injuries to me....

No chance that the 2016 team with Shaun Hill under center would've even sniffed 8-8.

[swede700]

31 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

What other major injuries occurred that I'm forgetting about?

Mike Zimmer, Sharrif Floyd, Mike Harris, Matt Kalil, Jake Long, Adrian Peterson, and Andre Smith spent all or most of the year on IR.  Also Berger (out for 2 games), Sherels (out for 5 games), Harrison Smith (out for 2 games), Fusco (out for 2 games)...and not to mention that Barr and Diggs spent a good majority of the season not completely healthy, despite playing (except Diggs was out for 3 games).  Even Mackensie Alexander, Xavier, Waynes and Kendricks all missed a game. 

In fact, only 6 players started all 16 games last year... and only 13 other non-starters played in all 16 games.  While there weren't a lot of major injuries other than those mentioned, there were a ton of nagging ones.

I agree with Klomp.  If they had Hill starting instead of Bradford, with those same types of situations going on, that team is 3-13, not 8-8.  Whether hindsight or not, the trade was a trade that had to have been made and there are no regrets, even knowing what is known now.       

[vikingsrule]

Just seemed like a somewhat standard year for injuries, minus the Tackle situation, which was bizarre. Every team deals with nagging injuries. We've had some this year too. Hell, even the injured tackles weren't even that good. What's Kalil, Smith and Long up to these days?

 

[swede700]

1 minute ago, vikingsrule said:

Just seemed like a somewhat standard year for injuries, minus the Tackle situation, which was bizarre. Every team deals with nagging injuries. We've had some this year too. Hell, even the injured tackles weren't even that good. What's Kalil, Smith and Long up to these days?

 

It was the absurdity of the number of players that were put on IR, which kills depth...in all, there were 14 players placed on IR, with 6 of them being considered starters prior to the season (including 3/5 of their preseason starting offensive line).  This year, there's only 6 on IR, and only 2 of them were considered starters in the preseason (Bridgewater and Floyd no longer counted as starters) and one of them was now picked up by the Cowboys (Datone Jones)...and there's been virtually no hit on the injury front to their depth, because outside of those 5, the only other one on IR wasn't even a critical part of the depth (Bishop Sankey). 

So, all in all, outside of the loss of Bradford and Cook, they've been remarkably healthy, whereas last year, there was an inordinate toll in both nagging injuries and just missing key pieces at various times of the season in addition to the toll taken on the offensive line.

[milanb]

3 hours ago, Klomp said:

This is the big key going forward though.

Keenum is seeing this first-time success under Shurmur. No other OC has catered to him in a way that he's played this well. So if Shurmur goes elsewhere (which is a very real possibility), we should not lock ourselves into the idea that Keenum is absolutely the guy going forward (especially with the possible name-your-price idea floating out there).

While I will agree that Shurmur deserves a ton of credit for the turnaround on offence, I would also submit that the Reid/Holmgren version of the WCO that Shurmur runs is a much better fit for the personnel that the Vikings have on offence than the Norv Turner vertical offence that it replaced. And Keenum for that matter is fundamentally a bootleg and broken play QB and more of a natural fit for the WCO than Bradford or (probably) Teddy.

[Purplexing]

21 hours ago, Krauser said:

1. You should read more carefully. I didn't weight passer rating at 0%, I used Keenum's passer rating to show he's never performed as well in his career as he did over the past 3 weeks. The idea being that this is a hot streak, not indicative of his true talent level. 

College stats are much, much less relevant once we have NFL performance to judge instead. 

In Keenum's case in particular, his college stats had more to do with his situation (starting 57 games over 5 years, still in college when he was nearly 24 -- older than Teddy was in the playoff game vs Seattle, and playing in an Air Raid offense under Kevin Sumlin) than his talent. Most of the best QBs leave college earlier (and younger) than Keenum did. Throwing for the most career yards in NCAA history is way less impressive when the rest of the top 5 goes: 2. Timmy Chang, 3. Landry Jones, 4. Graham Harrell, 5. Ty Detmer. 

2. I will send you (by PayPal or the payment method of your choice) 100 US dollars if you post a Youtube video to this forum in which you try to "replicate that video, albeit at a slightly slower speed, at more than twice his age". This wouldn't prove or disprove your point; it would be purely for my own amusement. You can follow that up with trying to copy some of Teddy's locker room dances. Maybe get a channel going, find some subscribers who're into pedantic but reasonably athletic middle aged men. 

(Note for those with reading comprehension issues: the paragraph above is a joke. Don't post a video, I'm not sending you money)

The point is that Teddy seems to have recovered fully from his injury.  Multiple observers have said so. He's certainly moving much better than Bradford did in practices/warmups before the  Chicago game. Maybe he'll show some hesitation in game situations, and maybe he'll be somewhat less agile than he was before the injury, but he's moving well enough to play again and see how it goes. 

3. Keenum was surpassed at one point in training camp by Heinicke. He also started games for multiple teams from 2013-16 and never kept his job. It's not like he never got his chance. He is already almost 30. So it's not like Brady, who was a 24 year old 2nd year guy who'd never started before Bledsoe got hurt.

As far as I know, there are zero prior cases of QBs with comparable histories to Keenum heading into this year (including age, previous opportunities to start, and lack of career success up to that point) who've gone on to become successful franchise QBs. Keenum would have to be the first. It's not literally impossible that it could happen, but it's unlikely. 

Meanwhile, there are multiple cases of QBs Teddy's age who've improved their play compared to their 1st/2nd years, and become long-term starters. His injury makes that harder to predict, but the main risk was that he wouldn't recover from it, and it seems he has recovered from it. I'm considerably less confident in his long-term success than I was before the injury, but I think he's still a better bet than Keenum for the future.

1. Yes, you didn't actually weight his passer rating at 0%.*  You called it a bad stat, regardless of the fact the NFL hasn’t abandoned it.  'Reading comprehension' is a way to duck the point I made about your selection of stats to suit your agenda.   FTR; I didn't view Keenum's collegiate stats; that wasn't my point in suggesting it.  You subtly discredit data for some prior years (i.e. TB’s 1^st two years aren’t representative of his potential) then say 'use all (NFL) years' for CK, and theorize TB will likely develop beyond his first few (mediocre) years.  The unbiased approach is to view ALL THREE QBs CONSISTENTLY.  So, what stats/ experience should be used for all 3?  All NFL years?  Some NFL years?  I am still fishing for an answer from you to make a point after you respond.  

* - You said collegiate stats are 'irrelevant' (paraphrased).  That points to, but not exactly in so many word, the 0% weighting I stated.   I'm pointing to your biased and inconsistent selection of stats to support your theory. 

2. You missed the point I was making about elusiveness, which I mislabeled in my first post, but corrected in my 2nd post.  You deflected this point by suggesting a Youtube challenge, which leads me to believe you’ve been coached in how to reply to me.  So, my response must be: if you are certain of your projections, make a significant wager on them in a Las Vegas Casino and post a pic of your bet slip online, and provide a link to it here.  

3.  You mention TB's high likelihood (paraphrased) of developing beyond his first 2 years.  You tried to build a case against Case developing further, or falling back to Earth, by mentioning that  Heinecke, who was learning the Turner / Shurmur system for 1 year when Keenum was signed, was initially ahead of Keenum on the depth chart.   You also suggest it's likely that Keenum will cool off from his hot streak (paraphrased).  But either of SB, TB, and/or CK could develop further into a top tier QB(s) under Shurmur or elsewhere. Summary; you emphasized the negative ‘distant’ stat history of CK, but give it little weight in making projections for TB.

The variance in Keenum's performance by year is greater than that of TB.  But there's a good reason for that variance, which you haven’t considered, and it's similar to the reason to exclude or diminish the weight given to collegiate stats.  Your inconsistency on these two points is glaring, and duly noted. 

I won't claim to be able to confidently project which, if any, of the four roster QBs will mature into a top tier QB, if any.  But I'll trust the coaches and GM to make reasonable decisions using all pertinent information, weighted by consensus of the coaches and GM, based on team goals, and the current roster and coaching staff. 

[Purplexing]

21 hours ago, vike daddy said:

dammit, i was going to chip in a hundred bucks too.

Padding your post count again?

If I post more often, you'll reach 100k in no time.

[Purplexing]

15 hours ago, milanb said:

While I will agree that Shurmur deserves a ton of credit for the turnaround on offence, I would also submit that the Reid/Holmgren version of the WCO that Shurmur runs is a much better fit for the personnel that the Vikings have on offence than the Norv Turner vertical offence that it replaced. And Keenum for that matter is fundamentally a bootleg and broken play QB and more of a natural fit for the WCO than Bradford or (probably) Teddy.

I agree with this.  However, I believe fans give too little, if any, credit to the other offensive coaches who coach players and enable them to better correct mistakes they make.  A glaring example is Zimmer's public statement about Keenum's two INTs at the end of the Wash game (i.e. decision making errors).  Other offensive coaches' 'corrective coaching' goes on in practice, where we do not see it occur.  Perhaps that is a reason for the improved performance of CK... and SB?  Will it enable CK to continue, or TB to develop further?  Stay tuned!

[Purplexing]

16 hours ago, vikingsrule said:

Just seemed like a somewhat standard year for injuries, minus the Tackle situation, which was bizarre. Every team deals with nagging injuries. We've had some this year too. Hell, even the injured tackles weren't even that good. What's Kalil, Smith and Long up to these days?

 

It may have been standard, or slightly more injuries than usual for a typical NFL team and season.  But the OL had many injuries, and it is considered a 'unit' tht must operate as such to be effective; i.e. one weakness can be exploited by the defense.  So, no, not a typical year as regards the OL, which was evident in the number of pressures and hits and sacks of the QB being atypical.

[Purplexing]

19 hours ago, Klomp said:

This is the big key going forward though.

Keenum is seeing this first-time success under Shurmur. No other OC has catered to him in a way that he's played this well. So if Shurmur goes elsewhere (which is a very real possibility), we should not lock ourselves into the idea that Keenum is absolutely the guy going forward (especially with the possible name-your-price idea floating out there).

I suggested in another, recent post, that the improvements to SB and CK may not be exclusively due to Shurmur.  Position coaches may be doing well to correct flaws in each QB's mechanics, thought process, and psyche.  What were the Wonderlic scores of each roster QB?

[JDBrocks]

46 minutes ago, Purplexing said:

You deflected this point by suggesting a Youtube challenge, which leads me to believe you’ve been coached in how to reply to me. 

This is a gem!

[Guest]

Wow...look at all the pages!!!  Here is my philosophy from this time until after the season is over.  I am going to enjoy riding the Keenum Express for however long it lasts in Minnesota.  I think Bridgewater has a bright future...I hope that it's with the Vikings.  But, where we go with the QB position is out of any of our control.  I'm not going to get to worked up about it. 

Maybe it's that I've been decaffeinated now for 3 plus weeks that I'm so mellow!!!???

[SemperFeist]

Some interesting, yet cryptic, things happening on the Twitter. 

[vike daddy]

2 hours ago, Purplexing said:

You deflected this point by suggesting a Youtube challenge, which leads me to believe you’ve been coached in how to reply to me. 

Paranoia strikes deep
Into your life it will creep
It starts when you're always afraid
You step out of line, the man come and take you away

Stephen Stills, 1967