Leader Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 The Kyiv Independent - Belarus will renounce its non-nuclear and neutral status, allowing Russia to place nuclear weapons on its territory, as a result of the referendum held today. 65.16% of citizens allegedly supported these constitutional amendments. Dictator Alexander Lukashenko also significantly extended his executive powers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) 10 hours ago, Leader said: The Kyiv Independent - Belarus will renounce its non-nuclear and neutral status, allowing Russia to place nuclear weapons on its territory, as a result of the referendum held today. 65.16% of citizens allegedly supported these constitutional amendments. Dictator Alexander Lukashenko also significantly extended his executive powers. Well there's a surprise. Not. That citizen approval number is such an absurd lie that it's not even worth telling. My only question at this point is, if Russia is allowed to have allied troops on the ground in attacking Ukraine, why isn't Ukraine allowed to have allied troops on the ground defending Ukraine? Edited February 28, 2022 by AlexGreen#20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Orwellian: A certain someone who tried to kill off NATO...declaring today that NATO wouldnt exist if not for him. “War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Ukrainians are uploading videos on TikTok about how to drive abandoned or captured Russian military vehicles. 👍 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Switzerland adopts EU sanctions, freezes Putin's assets. Switzerland broke its historically neutral status to adopt EU sanctions against Russia over its war on Ukraine. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Shell announces it's exiting all its joint-ventures with Gazprom, including its 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-2 LNG facility. Shell carries those JV at $3 billion valuation on its books, and it's warning of impartments. With BP and Shell leaving the country, I don't see how others can stay: the pressure on Exxon, Total and oil traders like Trafigura and Vitol (and Glencore in metals) is going to increase massively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 President Zelensky has signed an application for membership into the EU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddfather Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 17 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Again, all reports are hardly fully informed. Most of what I'm getting is from Ukraine, so it's highly likely this is influenced more than a bit by their propaganda, but from what I understand of the situation: Russia badly misjudged it's own military competence and readiness, and the toughness, readiness, and competence of the Ukrainians. They saw the US invasion of Iraq and how we completely gutted their military in 24 hours, and thought that his groups could do the same thing in Ukraine. They were falsely confident by the lack of resistance they faced in Georgia and Crimea. What isn't talked about much in the initial invasion of Iraq is that the Iraqi army still had memories of the absolute carnage that was the Highway of Death out of Kuwait, and as soon as they saw American armor or aircraft, they didn't stop running until they were districts away from incoming combat. They were more than happy to leave their posts and leave vital fixed AA defenses completely abandoned. This made the situation so easy that the biggest issue America had was our tanks outrunning our supply lines. America flying diesel into Iraq was maybe the most impressive logistics achievement since the Berlin Airlift, and still we were blasting through such light resistance that we had to tell our tank drivers to slow the hell down. Ukraine is the complete opposite of Iraq. Ukraine has essentially declared it will fight and die to the last man. I rarely use the term "heroism" but in this instance it's warranted. The Ukrainian resistance against a military force that far outnumbers them is nothing short of inspiring. A part of what is making Ukraine so difficult to crack is the excesses of America's industrial complex spilling over. The United States had an annual contract with Raytheon for an unpublished but unfathomable sum of money, and this contract has existed since the Cold War. Every year Raytheon produced X Javelins and Y Stingers, shoulder mounted rockets for taking down tanks and aircrafts respectively. Well, at some point the United States Army said "I have no place to store anymore of these things, go dump them in any country that wants to fight the Soviets." The two most notable recipients of this excess were Afghanistan and Ukraine. Ukraine, sharing a border with Russia, was more than happy to take them and put them on ice, suspecting this day was always coming. And then Russian armor strolled over the border, and 30 years x X Javelins per year were there to meet them. If the Ukrainian government is to be believed, they've destroyed over 100 tanks and 500 armored troop transports. That's more than Russia lost in their entire time in Syria. And those numbers are only going to get higher as Russia continues to have supply line issues. As far as Russia goes. 55-70% of their active fighting force in Ukraine right now is conscripts. AKA 19 year old history majors at Russian universities that the Russian military drafted, staged on the Ukrainian border for training exercises for two weeks and then sent to fight in Ukraine. They want absolutely nothing to do with this, and only fear of the higher ranked real soldiers in their platoon shooting them for desertion is keeping them moving forward. Russia has also been reporting for a long time that their technological advancements and retrofits of their T-72 tanks would make them resistant to, at least the new NLAWs, if maybe not Javelins. That's proving to be a complete lie. Their old cheap tanks with modern "canopy upgrades" are getting blasted apart by shoulder launched rockets, to say nothing of the troop transports. Russia, to an extent, also fell a bit for their own propaganda. They were convinced that the people of Eastern Ukraine wanted to be a part of Russia, and that they would happily join up with the Russian army, and would also give Putin's new puppet government a sense of legitimacy. In their defense, the EU had a similar fear. Either way, rumors of Eastern Ukrainian allegiance to Russia are proving to be GREATLY exaggerated. From all reports, the Eastern Ukrainian's are just as willing to throw Molotov cocktails at passing fuel trucks as their western counterparts. God bless them all. Russia also believed that they would be able to achieve air superiority in Ukraine very quickly, and while that's true over the vast majority of the country, and it seems they've destroyed the entirety of the fixed AA defenses, Ukraine has been very smart in their utilization of the very limited fighters. The Ukrainian jets are all Russian jets, just a generation or two behind. They're flying predominantly SU-27s against newer Russian SU-27s or SU-35s. An old SU-27 is deadmeat against an SU-35 in a true dog fight, even though the 35s are proving to be highly overrated, but if you combine an old SU-27 with ground radar assistance and a barrage of Stinger missiles, you get a much fairer fight. While I personally suspect that the "Ghost of Kiev" story is a clever bit of Ukrainian propaganda, it's also looking a lot like the Russians haven't been able to execute unmolested bombing runs over the city with the impunity that they had hoped. While Russian fighters are definitely flying wild over most of Ukraine, at least Kyev and Kharkov have been able to at least make it tough on them. Similarly shoulder mounted anti-air missiles are giving Russian helicopters hell and mostly making them pay for heading into any area that is too hot. The most troubling issue for Putin though is going to be fuel. The Russian convoys had gas for 3.5 days of operation. The assumption was that would be more than enough to get them to Kyev and have them take over the city. Well, that hasn't happened, now they're going to start having real problems, including having to start leaving vehicles behind so the rest of the group can advance. When you see Russian tanks pushed into ditches or rivers, a lot of times they were out of fuel and the group leader decided to scuttle them, rather than refuel them or leave them. Better to arrive at the destination with only 8 of your 10 tanks than to not arrive at all. Every day we wake up and Kyev is still standing, is a day that Russian armor is going to be increasingly paralyzed. If Ukraine survives to Day 10, most of the tanks will be dry and empty. Which means that by Day 5ish (2/28 or 3/1), Putin is going to have to make the decision does he want to try and fully annex the country knowing he's going to have to use real missiles to level Kyev and Kharkov so he can rule over the ashes. Or does he want to internally declare victory and pull his people back in what would be seen as a humiliating mass retreat on the world stage. If he waits until Day 8 to signal the retreat, he risks leaving hundreds of T-72 tanks in Ukranian mud, that are definitely going to be repurposed and leave Ukraine with the second largest armored group in Europe, only behind Russia itself. Oops. Either way, his ideal goal of reinstating a puppet government similar to Belarus is dead. The Ukrainians are proving to be fanatical in not allowing that to happen. The issue that Putin has with levelling Kyev with real missiles, is that he doesn't know what the international response is going to be to watching him level a city that still has tens of thousands of civilians. I suspect that such a decision would result in the NATO nations reacting with overwhelming force. Russian soldiers in Ukraine aren't protected by Iraqi citizens. We've never seen a current generation United States Airforce be truly allowed to cut loose and victimize an opposing force without any concerns before. Even the Iraqi invasion was over before they could really pop their claws. A thousand Russian tanks and fuel trucks sitting in the middle of Ukrainian fields and highways with no fixed AA defenses to protect them would be unrestrained violence previously unseen on planet earth. Poland's air force would shred this group, to say nothing of Israel, or God forbid the United States. At that point, everything goes onto the table, even including nuclear weapons, but I can't see Putin daring to go nuclear. As much as he fantasizes about being Lenin, he lives too comfortable a life as the Emperor of Russia to risk seeing Moscow turned to glass. +++ The other aspect here is that the longer Ukraine holds out, the more the EU/NATO is going to help them. Early reports out of Germany was that they believed Ukraine wasn't going to last 24 hours so there was no point in sending any assistance. Well, turns out that report was wrong, so Germany got pressured/guilted by their people into sending a not insignificant amount of anti tank weapons. The EU is in the process of cutting off SWIFT, albeit with exemptions for the gas producing institutions, so it's not nearly the blow that it could be. But it's still going to hurt. Turkey has closed the straits into the Black Sea to Russian Warships. While I have no doubt that Turkey has no interest in having even more Russian warships manned by morons running around the Black Sea, I also have no doubt that the pay off to Erdogan was at least $10,000,000,000.00. China abstained rather than voting against the EU sending their response force in, which tells us all we need to know that China is going to sit this one out and only step in when profitable. And while the EU is a bunch of chicken **** cowards about imposing sanctions on Russia for fear of losing their natural gas, Belarus holds no such leverage. RIP to that nation's economy. Fully expecting a civil war in the next two years. Poland and Romania are volunteering fighter jets, which will be fascinating. Most of what they have is either American planes that the Ukrainians aren't trained in, or older generation SU-27s. The SU-27s might be helpful but they'll have the same issues that they're having currently with outdated equipment. However, if Ukraine manages to dig up a handful of bodies that have flown US Aircraft before, you might have something. Poland has 8 F-35s ready and rearing to go. Whether they're willing to volunteer those, and whether Ukraine has anybody to fly them are probably long shots, but if you wanted to see an actual Ghost of Kiev, a trained F-35 pilot going up against that Russian hardware would look like Poe Damron in the Star Wars movies. +++ Obviously there are a billion moving pieces here, but there are very legitimate reasons to have hope for Ukraine, and it increases every day they hold Kyev. +++ As an addendum, I feel like people are marveling at Volodmyr Zelenskyy a lot, but not nearly enough. For those that don't know, Zelenskyy was a comedian/actor. His most famous role was playing the President of Ukraine on television. He got elected President because the people of Ukraine liked the character that he played on TV and they hated the Putin apologist that ran against him. This is the equivalent of the United States of America electing Kiefer Sutherland as President because they liked the character that he played on Designated Survivor. This leads to some absolutely hilarious pieces of information including the fact that he won Ukrainian Dancing With the Stars. And I've got to say, it's actually kinda paid off. He's phenomenal on camera and delivering announcements like he's The Rock. His, "In two more days, we'll start accepting applications for NATO to join Ukraine" is absolutely ******* electric, and exactly what a besieged population needs from their President. Stuff like the Snake Island, "Russian Warship, Go **** yourself" is exactly what a besieged and overmatched nation needs in their time of need. While normally I don't like propaganda, this stuff is needed and masterfully done. The "Ghost of Kyev" and the grandmother "Put sunflower seeds in your pocket, so when you die on our soil the flowers will grow" is just fantastic. Get ready to hear in the next few days story about "The Gardener" a Ukrainian infantryman/sniper with 25+ confirmed kills. The Sabaton song about this thing is going to be awesome beyond description. Thank you for typing this up. Zelenskyy has given me chills, and the Ukrainians are something to admire in this awful situation. I can't pretend to know all about his politics, but man. As a leader in a time like this. It's really something to admire. I am glad those people have someone like him to inspire, and keep them going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Toddfather said: Thank you for typing this up. Zelenskyy has given me chills, and the Ukrainians are something to admire in this awful situation. I can't pretend to know all about his politics, but man. As a leader in a time like this. It's really something to admire. I am glad those people have someone like him to inspire, and keep them going. There's a lot to be said for having a leader of character. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodestar Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 51 minutes ago, Toddfather said: Thank you for typing this up. Zelenskyy has given me chills, and the Ukrainians are something to admire in this awful situation. I can't pretend to know all about his politics, but man. As a leader in a time like this. It's really something to admire. I am glad those people have someone like him to inspire, and keep them going. I mean this in all seriousness: what do you do for a living that allows you to know all of this, let alone have time to type it all out, while still allowing time to be a prolific crankypants on the Packers message board? Great post btw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 21 minutes ago, Lodestar said: I mean this in all seriousness: what do you do for a living that allows you to know all of this, let alone have time to type it all out, while still allowing time to be a prolific crankypants on the Packers message board? Great post btw. Thanks, and I'm an engineer who works on kinda specific but pretty important systems in the logistics industries. So a lot of the time nothing is broken, and plans are finalized. So I just kinda don't have anything to do other than hangout and read stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 This'll get their attention: The International Ice Hockey Federation has suspended both the Russian and Belarusian teams from competing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Leader said: This'll get their attention: The International Ice Hockey Federation has suspended both the Russian and Belarusian teams from competing. Teams refusing to play the Russians had the IHF in a bind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Teams refusing to play the Russians had the IHF in a bind. I say cut them out of everything....seize everything.....close them down entirely. Then....do the same to Belarus. Lukashenko's a complete fraud. A criminal. Maybe the people will rise up (again) and actually get rid of him and his cronies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Leader said: I say cut them out of everything....seize everything.....close them down entirely. Then....do the same to Belarus. Lukashenko's a complete fraud. A criminal. Maybe the people will rise up (again) and actually get rid of him and his cronies. Lukashenko might not survive a Putin assassination if this thing keeps going bad for them. To clarify, I mean that Putin will have him killed. Edited February 28, 2022 by AlexGreen#20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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