VonKarman Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Yeah, I know, it might sound stupid for many of you but it's best course the Packers can take for the future. When looking at his contract, and the team's cap situation, we get the following data: -He's got a 36.4M cap hit. Trading him saves up only 4.8M in 2021, but he's off the books by 2022 and that saves around 68M in the next years. -The team that gets him would have him on a 3Y/73M with no guaranteed money which is a pretty sweet contract even for an aging Rodgers. -We don't need to pay another QB since we drafted one this year in the first round. When looking at our team situation and its ability to get to the Superbowl we get the following data: -Rodgers is aging and getting worse every year. He's barely a Top 10 QB, but the perception he generates is of a QB who can still be in the top tier. This perception might not last long. -The team has a big FA in 2021 (Bakhtiari, Clark, Jones, Linsley, King) and the expect cap room is gonna decrease by 40M (from 215M to 175M). Our team is not going to be a contender in 2021. -LaFleur wants a rhythm QB that follows is commands and doesn't leave throws on the field, specially between the numbers. Let's be honest, AR is great in many areas, but he doesn't fit our coaches philosophy very well. That's why we drafted Love in the first round. However, there is one main problem, and that's that with a projected 175M cap, many teams are not going to have much room. There are a few potential suitors though, as they will probably have a starting-level QB by 2021 and Rodgers' cap hit would only be 22M. Suitor no. 1: Indianapolis Colts 2021 Cap situation +91M in cap space They have no QB for 2021, as Rivers is on a 1-year deal. Ballard has shown willingness to trade his first round pick (see DeForest Buckner trade) for a player he needs. Having Rodgers might elevate them to contenders that year. Suitor no. 2: Washington Football Team 2021 Cap situation +66.6M in cap space By next year they will have a full rebrand and who knows, maybe a new owner. The team might want a fresh start and coupling their new name with a big-name signing would be the huge PR move they need. It will depend on Haskins' performance, whose chances of sucking in 2020 are not slim. Suitor no. 3: Jacksonville Jaguars 2021 Cap situation +63.7M in cap space Similar to the Haskins situation in Washington, Jacksonville will see what they have in Minshew this year. Marrone has high chances of getting fired by the end of this season. A new HC might demand a new toy, and Rodgers would be an ideal one. Suitor no. 4: New England Patriots 2021 Cap situation +59.1M in cap space They have Cam on a 1-year deal. Reviving Rodgers' career would be typical of Bellichick. Makes a lot of sense for them. Suitor no. 6: Cleveland Browns 2021 Cap situation +29.1M in cap space This one is a bit more tough, as it's harder to see a former OROY not starting its entire rookie contract. But if Mayfield sucks another year who knows. Suitor no. 7: New York Jets 2021 Cap Situation +28.9 in cap space 2020 is a make it or brake year for Gase and Darnold. They are probably going to suck (specially since they have traded Adams), but probably not enough to land the 1st pick and get Trevor Lawrence. They have a lot of assets to make the trade. I'd love the Favre 2.0 situation. Suitor no. 8 Las Vegas Raiders 2021 Cap Situation -9.8 in cap space Yeah, I know, they apparently do not have enough room for him. Nevertheless, if you look close enough, you'll see that cutting Mariota&Carr in 2021 frees up 29.7M and only leaves 2.5M in dead money (which would happen anyway if they traded for Rodgers). Couple that with cutting/trading Incognito (6.4M in cap space, 0 in dead money) and they suddenly have enough room to sign him. Gute, just do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 My current prediction is the 2021 cap does not go down much, it likely stays flat. Somewhere in the 195 to 200 range. The "loss" from 2020 in stadium/in game revenue will be accounted for in 2022, 2023. Dropping the cap to 175 in 2021 would hurt too many teams due to having to cut veterans to get back under the cap. A flat cap for 2 or 3 years will lessen that and maintain some competitive balance. GB is in a tricky spot with some premium position FA Bakhtiari, Clark and King. Even with a 200M cap for 2021, GB might be in a squeeze to retain those 3 at a 8, 8, 6 respective 1st year cap hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Vince Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Re watching the NFC championship game and Rodgers really played bad. The look on Matt's face told me he's ready to move on from Rodgers. Now i'm get why they took Love in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonKarman Posted July 26, 2020 Author Share Posted July 26, 2020 20 minutes ago, squire12 said: My current prediction is the 2021 cap does not go down much, it likely stays flat. Somewhere in the 195 to 200 range. The "loss" from 2020 in stadium/in game revenue will be accounted for in 2022, 2023. Dropping the cap to 175 in 2021 would hurt too many teams due to having to cut veterans to get back under the cap. A flat cap for 2 or 3 years will lessen that and maintain some competitive balance. GB is in a tricky spot with some premium position FA Bakhtiari, Clark and King. Even with a 200M cap for 2021, GB might be in a squeeze to retain those 3 at a 8, 8, 6 respective 1st year cap hits. Reading/listening to Jason Fitzgerald, the dude that runs OverTheCap, as well as other reporters, it looks like it's gonna be either 175 or close to that. Teams like Saints, Eagles, Falcons are going to be pretty screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, VonKarman said: Reading/listening to Jason Fitzgerald, the dude that runs OverTheCap, as well as other reporters, it looks like it's gonna be either 175 or close to that. Teams like Saints, Eagles, Falcons are going to be pretty screwed. Interesting. I have not listened to someone that "in the know" on this. GB has like $185M committed for 2021 as of now. I am not sure if the rollover from 2020 is factored in, but spotrac has GB as about 7M over if the cap is 175. Clark, bakhtiari and king get hard to re-sign in that situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brat&Beer Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 1 hour ago, VonKarman said: Yeah, I know, it might sound stupid for many of you but it's best course the Packers can take for the future. When looking at his contract, and the team's cap situation, we get the following data: -He's got a 36.4M cap hit. Trading him saves up only 4.8M in 2021, but he's off the books by 2022 and that saves around 68M in the next years. -The team that gets him would have him on a 3Y/73M with no guaranteed money which is a pretty sweet contract even for an aging Rodgers. -We don't need to pay another QB since we drafted one this year in the first round. When looking at our team situation and its ability to get to the Superbowl we get the following data: -Rodgers is aging and getting worse every year. He's barely a Top 10 QB, but the perception he generates is of a QB who can still be in the top tier. This perception might not last long. -The team has a big FA in 2021 (Bakhtiari, Clark, Jones, Linsley, King) and the expect cap room is gonna decrease by 40M (from 215M to 175M). Our team is not going to be a contender in 2021. -LaFleur wants a rhythm QB that follows is commands and doesn't leave throws on the field, specially between the numbers. Let's be honest, AR is great in many areas, but he doesn't fit our coaches philosophy very well. That's why we drafted Love in the first round. Gute, just do it. My preference has been to wait until 2022 to trade him. At that point you get more salary cap savings and you have had a year to develop and evaluate Love. The loss of off-season work and now the preseason games is a huge short-term setback in the development of Love. At this point, depending on how quickly Love picks up the offense in the time left, we don't even now if Love will be getting most of the 2nd team reps in practice. There's a good chance that going into 2021 the Packers won't have a very good idea yet whether Love can be the guy. That's very different from the Favre/Rodgers situation in 2007/2008 where Rodgers had shown in 2007 that he was ready to be a starting QB in the NFL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40Year Pack Fan Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Not many teams on the west coast currently needing QB's....Exception perhaps the Raiders or Chargers....Cannot see Rodgers as a Raider....I've thought about Cleveland, but whose to say he wouldn't retire instead of reporting?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40Year Pack Fan Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40Year Pack Fan said: Not many teams on the west coast currently needing QB's....Exception perhaps the Raiders or Chargers....Cannot see Rodgers as a Raider....I've thought about Cleveland, but whose to say he wouldn't retire instead of reporting?.... Further add, could Belichick and Rodgers co-exist together in NE?..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40Year Pack Fan said: Further add, could Belichick and Rodgers co-exist together in NE?..... McDaniels and Rodgers sure as hell could not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonKarman Posted July 26, 2020 Author Share Posted July 26, 2020 15 minutes ago, Brat&Beer said: My preference has been to wait until 2022 to trade him. At that point you get more salary cap savings and you have had a year to develop and evaluate Love. The loss of off-season work and now the preseason games is a huge short-term setback in the development of Love. At this point, depending on how quickly Love picks up the offense in the time left, we don't even now if Love will be getting most of the 2nd team reps in practice. There's a good chance that going into 2021 the Packers won't have a very good idea yet whether Love can be the guy. That's very different from the Favre/Rodgers situation in 2007/2008 where Rodgers had shown in 2007 that he was ready to be a starting QB in the NFL. Yeah, 2021 and 2022 are the two only realistic options unless we see that Love flat out sucks. The COVID-19 thing has definitly not helped Love's development, but if he's at least a bit ready we should throw him on the field. We need to take advantage of the first 5 years of the contract. We have 4M in projected cap space for 2021. It's gonna be really difficult for us to get into the playoffs next year anyway (now I'm only sure that we'll extend Clark, King and Bakhtiari are going to be difficult), our only chance is that Vikings and Bears are probably even more ****ed than us and the Lions are gonna be the Lions for as long as they wear turquoise jerseys. We might as well use 2021 to develop our young guys and get ready for the next years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 And yeah, Rodgers wins Super Bowl this year, then we trade him coming off a Super Bowl win adds a first round pick. Two first round picks and a player and we’ve got another Super Bowl win within 3 years I’d Love is even Matt Ryan level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40Year Pack Fan Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: McDaniels and Rodgers sure as hell could not. Yeah that thought crossed my mind as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonKarman Posted July 26, 2020 Author Share Posted July 26, 2020 1 hour ago, squire12 said: Interesting. I have not listened to someone that "in the know" on this. GB has like $185M committed for 2021 as of now. I am not sure if the rollover from 2020 is factored in, but spotrac has GB as about 7M over if the cap is 175. Clark, bakhtiari and king get hard to re-sign in that situation We are 4M under the cap if we don't spend a penny this year and we rollover all the money we have right now. We'll still need to make a few moves (probably restructure some contracts) to make room for our rookies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 I actually think they got a better shot in 2021 than they do in 2020. Most teams have their QB of the future (or so they think), so we need some bust soon to trade Rodgers. Also, a big question is how ready is Love? As for as resigning Bak and Clark I'm not worried as usual they mainly get signing bonus the first year. Though bigger questions for Jones, King and Linsley. Either way CB needs to be upgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FAH1223 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Rodgers isn't getting traded in 2021, guys. He's our QB until 2022 at the earliest. I don't think the COVID-19 impact of the loss in revenue will impact the salary cap in 2021. It'd be too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts