Jump to content

Your Sabremetrics


Shady Slim

Recommended Posts

16 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

I'm pushing back on this one...You are what your record says you are so far as the NFL is concerned.
It determines your playoff eligibility, who you play and when you play them
They have 12 tie breakers to separate teams with similar records and those tie breakers don't even get into quality of wins until the 5th one because winning  is so important. Fans can make all kinds of contextual statements, talk about injuries or quality of opponents - but at the end of the day your team advances  based on the W/L record - and until that changes Bill Parcells was right.

No team in the history of the league has ever advanced based on context, because while it can offer additional insight, it just doesn't matter very much

https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-tiebreaking-procedures/

  1. The division champion with the best record
  2. The division champion with the second-best record
  3. The division champion with the third-best record
  4. The division champion with the fourth-best record
  5. The wild card club with the best record
  6. The wild card club with the second-best record
  7. The wild card club with the third-best record

Breaking a tie between 2 clubs

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs)
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
  5. Strength of victory
  6. Strength of schedule
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
  9. Best net points in common games
  10. Best net points in all games
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games
  12. Coin toss

When NFL rolls out The Context Bowl and crowns a winner,  then context will matter - till then the NFL is all about winning and the W/L record is King.

You're arguing something different though, which wasn't what I was talking about. Quality of the team has nothing to do with how the NFL decides to seed teams for the postseason, because it's not designed to denote the quality of a team more so it's just designed to easily establish order for the playoffs swiftly at the most basic level. That dynamic is different, and it doesn't mean that the quality of a team is in sync with it's record. I'm not asking for the NFL to change. I'm saying people need to not just evaluate a team based on it's record. The NFL's system of categorizing teams for postseason play is a ****ty excuse not to. Were the 2019 13-3 Packers as dominant a team as the 1996 13-3 Packers because they had the same record? That kind of thing. Parcell's quote wasn't right in that aspect if that is what he inferred. Because record doesn't necessarily denote quality. That's different from how a team fits into the NFL landscape for moving forward throughout the season. If you're a player or a coach, who cares. If you're a fan that wants to talk about teams, then don't use record as an end-all/be-all arguing point. 

Edited by TecmoSuperJoe
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

You're arguing something different though, which wasn't what I was talking about. Quality of the team has nothing to do with how the NFL decides to seed teams for the postseason, because it's not designed to denote the quality of a team more so it's just designed to easily establish order for the playoffs swiftly at the most basic level. That dynamic is different, and it doesn't that the quality of a team is in sync with it's record. I'm not asking for the NFL to change. I'm saying people need to not just evaluate a team based on it's record.  

This can't be stated enough. While I'm also a believer that a record says you are, there are still variables that matter that need to be taken into account. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/2/2020 at 8:12 PM, Shady Slim said:

so we all (hopefully) would know the moneyball story, in which the oakland a's used advanced statistical analysis and numbers to find market inefficiencies and build a team of players who were traditionally undervalued by the old heads who dominate recruiting and team building in the game of baseball yeah?

i'm wondering, given we're all football men here and mostly pretty smart - what sort of things do you think are undervalued or overvalued by the average observer? let's try to avoid the well known ones like RBs, let's get in to the real nitty gritty of it all - those things that you see that you think joe average nfl fan doesn't see and you'd bring to the table as an innovative GM

Thank you for correctly mentioning this. The number of people who think Moneyball is about walks specifically always gets to me

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...