Shady Slim Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 so we all (hopefully) would know the moneyball story, in which the oakland a's used advanced statistical analysis and numbers to find market inefficiencies and build a team of players who were traditionally undervalued by the old heads who dominate recruiting and team building in the game of baseball yeah? i'm wondering, given we're all football men here and mostly pretty smart - what sort of things do you think are undervalued or overvalued by the average observer? let's try to avoid the well known ones like RBs, let's get in to the real nitty gritty of it all - those things that you see that you think joe average nfl fan doesn't see and you'd bring to the table as an innovative GM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vorsutus Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 (edited) Not sure this counts but qb bulk stats vs efficiency stats annoy the crap out of me. Efficiency is far more important than bulk when looking at how good a player is. Edited August 3, 2020 by Vorsutus 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 3 hours ago, Shady Slim said: so we all (hopefully) would know the moneyball story, in which the oakland a's used advanced statistical analysis and numbers to find market inefficiencies and build a team of players who were traditionally undervalued by the old heads who dominate recruiting and team building in the game of baseball yeah? i'm wondering, given we're all football men here and mostly pretty smart - what sort of things do you think are undervalued or overvalued by the average observer? let's try to avoid the well known ones like RBs, let's get in to the real nitty gritty of it all - those things that you see that you think joe average nfl fan doesn't see and you'd bring to the table as an innovative GM The gauntlet drill in the combine for CBs is underrated as hell. People hate on it, but it is a useful drill. And this one is probably not unknown, but TFLs are THE stat to use when evaluating a pass rusher or DL’s penetration. Sacks are borderline useless. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 (edited) Quality of wins. A team with a 13-3 record doesn't necessarily mean they are as good as any other team that achieved the same mark. They may not even be that dominant. 16 games is a very small sample size to go off of already. A record doesn't denote the hundreds of snaps throughout the season, who the opponents are, or whether a victory was a blowout or a close win. Yet, due to convenience, or laziness to actually take the time to analyze performance with a closer look, people will rest on quotes like "you are what you record says you are" in regards to any team. Bill Parcells said it, he's a champion, so it must be true. When in reality it's better to try and contextualize as best as you can. Edited August 3, 2020 by TecmoSuperJoe 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 4 hours ago, Vorsutus said: Not sure this counts but qb bulk stats vs efficiency stats annoy the crap out of me. Efficiency is far more important than bulk when looking at how good a player is. This is true but only if the sample sizes are the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patriotsheatyan Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 I use whichever push my narrative. My narrative is usually based on early opinions I formed on something, so I will use what I can to downplay them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 (edited) I think tackle numbers are generally an overrated stat, and often you find a linebacker or a DL has done all the work to keep the tackler clean. So they are a bi-product of selfless play, a lot of the time. I wish there was some way to track the efforts that led to a completed tackle. Like a linebacker taking on a guard preventing him getting to 2nd level etc. I also think 'finishing blocks' is overrated - it just looks good. If you've blocked a guy and your ball carrier is through, who cares if you then spend the next 4 seconds driving him into the turf? (I do admit it's great when your player does it, but still, I cringe a bit when Kiper and co. use it as a top 3 metric for grading OLs). Edited August 3, 2020 by Hunter2_1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 8 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said: Quality of wins. A team with a 13-3 record doesn't necessarily mean they are as good as any other team that achieved the same mark. They may not even be that dominant. 16 games is a very small sample size to go off of already. A record doesn't denote the hundreds of snaps throughout the season, who the opponents are, or whether a victory was a blowout or a close win. Yet, due to convenience, or laziness to actually take the time to analyze performance with a closer look, people will rest on quotes like "you are what you record says you are" in regards to any team. Bill Parcells said it, he's a champion, so it must be true. When in reality it's better to try and contextualize as best as you can. I'm pushing back on this one...You are what your record says you are so far as the NFL is concerned. It determines your playoff eligibility, who you play and when you play them They have 12 tie breakers to separate teams with similar records and those tie breakers don't even get into quality of wins until the 5th one because winning is so important. Fans can make all kinds of contextual statements, talk about injuries or quality of opponents - but at the end of the day your team advances based on the W/L record - and until that changes Bill Parcells was right. No team in the history of the league has ever advanced based on context, because while it can offer additional insight, it just doesn't matter very much https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-tiebreaking-procedures/ The division champion with the best record The division champion with the second-best record The division champion with the third-best record The division champion with the fourth-best record The wild card club with the best record The wild card club with the second-best record The wild card club with the third-best record Breaking a tie between 2 clubs Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference Strength of victory Strength of schedule Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed Best net points in common games Best net points in all games Best net touchdowns in all games Coin toss When NFL rolls out The Context Bowl and crowns a winner, then context will matter - till then the NFL is all about winning and the W/L record is King. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tetsujin Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 (edited) Points allowed and yards allowed are REALLY overrated for evaluating a D. They're both heavily influenced by the number of possessions the opponent gets. Or how bad the offense is of the defensive team being evaluated. Yards per play allowed is better. Edited August 3, 2020 by Tetsujin 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheesehawk Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Sack numbers as a pass rusher. Pass rush win efficiency is a much better way to value pass rushers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 If I want to assess the efficiency of an offense, there are any number of stats available - including several from Football Outsiders The one I like to look at is the ratio of 1st downs to 3rd downs. When an offense is humming along, they don't need as many 3rd downs to move the chains 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vorsutus Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 12 hours ago, Classic said: This is true but only if the sample sizes are the same. Would you downgrade wilson because he throws 100 less passes a year compared to the prolific passers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vorsutus Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, Tetsujin said: Points allowed and yards allowed are REALLY overrated for evaluating a D. They're both heavily influenced by the number of possessions the opponent gets. Or how bad the offense is of the defensive team being evaluated. Yards per play allowed is better. I would agree yards per play is better than yards allowed. But points allowed is the key stone of defense. Edit: or points allowed per play or drive. Edited August 3, 2020 by Vorsutus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TakeTheBallDeep Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 (edited) I know you wanted to stay away from RBs but I think many casual fans underrate the importance of depth at that position, most probably think if you have a star at RB you are fine and last years New York Giants were a prime example of how import having depth is. Once Barkley went down, they didn't have a reliable #2 and it showed. Do you need to have a star at RB? Sure it helps but having a group of guys who can pick up first downs when needed, be able to pass block, catch the ball, and be reliable in certain situations is so important Also everyone talks about finding a LT is probably the 2nd or 3rd most important position behind QB and maybe DE but Guards and Centers are just as important IMO. Pressure up the middle is the quickest way to the QB and it causes the most amount of bad things to happen such as a QB panicking or making bad decisions with the ball Edited August 3, 2020 by TakeTheBallDeep 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gmen Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 There is a Twitter community of nerdy football fans that that explore advanced metrics for football. Two of the more interesting ones for me personally are completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) and expected points added (EPA). I've explored both quite a bit during this quarantine thanks to a database called nflfastR 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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