Week 10 GDT: Ravens vs. Off-Brand Patriots

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Final injury report: 

Jimmy Smith on pace to only play 16 games TWICE in his entire career (11 seasons). Yeesh.

 

[diamondbull424]

As long as we can keep our main core of our secondary healthy for a playoff stretch run is all that matters to me. Marlon was healthy enough to play before he sat for a week, I’m sure the rest likely has done his body good. Let Jimmy get the same treatment.

I think the Patriots are some weird kind of trap game option. They’re the Patriots and I still expect them to compete for that division, if not at least to hit .500 on the season.

That said, their run defense is no where near the standard it’s normally been at. I think we should be able to abuse them with just our basic run game without having to get Lamar much involved. However I think this is a game that, especially if Gilmore sits, Lamar could have a breakout 2020 game. I don’t think they have the ability to hold the edge nor the athleticism to really spy Lamar in the open field like some teams have done. I think their defense will also overestimate how easy our run game will be to deal with because they’re practicing against Newton. I think it’ll provide some defensive players some undue confidence.

I could see this as a game where Lamar rushes for over 100 yds due to a few big runs. Also that Patriots player talking about our offense, I’m sure has supplied bulletin board material. I also get the feeling that Lamar and the offense will take personal the notion that they can’t beat good teams and after the confidence they got from that Colts second half, will be looking to steamroll the Patriots.

Our defense has also show to create turnovers and you just KNOW that with a week off Humphrey is going to force 1-2 FFs in this game to get the ball back to our offense.

I see this game going similar to the Jets game against them, only we won’t be allowing the Patriots any life to come back for the victory. Lamar has his 3rd perfect passing game of his career, if Gilmore is out. We always play the Patriots well, I don’t think this season when they’re depleted that this will somehow not be the case.

[sp6488]

I honestly am more confident about this game than I’ve been for one in a while. I think we boat race them. Putting my money where my mouth is with several units on the -7 line. Don’t think there’s any way this is a “trap game.” Given the teams’ history I think the players and the coaches will prep thoroughly and keep the foot on the gas all game long. 

[drd23]

6 hours ago, sp6488 said:

I think we boat race them.

I'd argue that we should be if we're really one of the top teams in the conference.  Their offense can really only run the ball and we have the best run defense (by DVOA), whereas on the other side of the ball, while our offense still isn't clicking on all cylinders, their defense is one of the worst in the league.

I'll be disappointed if we don't cover the spread

[Ray Reed]

This will be one of the few opportunities ever to go into New England and absolutely put it on the Bill Belichick led Patriots in front of a national audience.

Really hope they take advantage. A win is a win is a win, but it’d be nice to win comfortably up there after all the heartbreaking losses we’ve endured watching at Gillette - 2009 Mark Clayton game, 2010 OT loss, 2011 AFC Championship Game and 2014 Divisional Game. All games we should have won.

[sp6488]

10 hours ago, drd23 said:

I'd argue that we should be if we're really one of the top teams in the conference.  Their offense can really only run the ball and we have the best run defense (by DVOA), whereas on the other side of the ball, while our offense still isn't clicking on all cylinders, their defense is one of the worst in the league.

I'll be disappointed if we don't cover the spread

Where is their D particularly weak? Seems like they have a pretty strong DB group. Is it in the front 7? Should we expect to run power at them early and often?

[diamondbull424]

Well after taking a look at the forecast I’m adjusting my predictions. I hope Roman just runs the football down their throat in this one considering we’re talking rain and 17 MPH winds. Those are winds that would rival our game against Buffalo last season where Andrews couldn’t even catch a cold his hands were so bad.

Which is a shame, because this had all the makings of a Lamar breakout passing performance type scenario. Alas I’m sure it will now just amplify his critics after a sloppy passing performance in what will be a very sloppy game. Should lead to plenty of dropped balls and possibly picks on both sides, assuming the forecast holds.

[diamondbull424]

17 minutes ago, sp6488 said:

Where is their D particularly weak? Seems like they have a pretty strong DB group. Is it in the front 7? Should we expect to run power at them early and often?

Upfront. They generate next to no pass rush. The guys they have to rush the passer are terrible at setting the edge, so they’ve been left I’ll equipped in their personnel packages.

In theory it means Lamar could have had a career type game, especially with Gilmore possibly out. But now? If he does, it’ll likely be a career game on the ground. If Lamar somehow achieves a perfect passing game in the rain in 15-20 mph winds, that would be beyond special. But I’ll have to pump the breaks on that prediction of mines for this game.

http://www.nflweather.com/en/game/2020/week-10/ravens-at-patriots

Edited November 14, 2020 by diamondbull424

[diamondbull424]

Considering inclement weather, I’ll predict we run for 250 yards in this game. Pass for roughly 100-150 yds.

But watch Roman decides to make THIS the game where he goes with spread formations and look to target the deep passing attack.

Lamar during half time will tell him that it’s raining and there’s very high wind and he’ll adjust in the second half to running the football. 😂

Edited November 14, 2020 by diamondbull424

[drd23]

4 hours ago, sp6488 said:

Where is their D particularly weak? Seems like they have a pretty strong DB group. Is it in the front 7? Should we expect to run power at them early and often?

As db said, their front 7 is the main problem, but their D is terrible all round according to DVOA - 30th against the pass, 31st against the run

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

58 minutes ago, drd23 said:

As db said, their front 7 is the main problem, but their D is terrible all round according to DVOA - 30th against the pass, 31st against the run

Joe Flacco just looked competent against their secondary, so I mean.....yeah they're not good.

[diamondbull424]

I do think part of that has to be taken with a slight grain of salt though. They missed practices due to Covid-19, they were without veteran defenders early, and Gilmore has been out.

Not saying it will turn around against us obviously, but if Gilmore plays they’re a different defense.

That and I suspect that with more practice time the young guys can turn it around... alas, I doubt it’ll be against us. Just figured I’d play some devil’s advocate (sort of, a very bad version of it).

[RavensfanRD]

5 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Joe Flacco just looked competent against their secondary, so I mean.....yeah they're not good.

Joe Flacco is an all-time great! Show respect youngin'.

Also, if the Ravens don't win this game by 20 points, someone needs to be fired.

[diamondbull424]

21 minutes ago, RavensfanRD said:

Joe Flacco is an all-time great! Show respect youngin'.

Also, if the Ravens don't win this game by 20 points, someone needs to be fired.

I don’t know. I think both offense will be incredibly limited in this one. Probably an ugly game that even if we dominate we win by “only” like 14-17 points. But hey perhaps the forecast changes between now and then. But in 20 mph wins, even Tucker might have some difficulty putting the ball between the uprights. He’ll probably actually need to try this week.

If we had Campbell I might feel more confident about a 20 point differential. But I think something like 28-10. Similar looking game to Ravens-Steelers, week 17 last season where we just steamroll with the run and look to get out of the game as healthy as possible, considering we’ve got Titans and Steelers I’m back to back weeks... with the Steelers on the short week.

[diamondbull424]

Last minute forecast update has the winds down to 14 mph at kickoff. Only about 2 mph difference but still low enough to cultivate a quality passing attack. Could come out the gates with some level of passing to open things up and then just sit on the rushing attack in the second half.