BDL 2020 Week 12 - Cuba Smugglers @ Gotham Gashslayers

[Ragnarok]

BDL 2020 Week 12

Match: Cuba Smugglers @ Gotham Gashslayers

Away Owner: @MD4L

Home Owner: @pheltzbahr

 

Vote for who you think would win the game.

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Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both.

[Ragnarok]

CUBA

QB: DeShaun Watson
RB: Dalvin Cook
WR: Julio Jones 
WR: Justin Jefferson 
WR: DJ Chark 
TE: Mo Alie Cox
LT: Mekhi Becton 
LG: Elgton Jenkins 
C - Ryan Jansen
RG: David DeCastro
RT: Daryl Williams

FB: Kyle Juszcyk
RB: Jamaal Williams 
RB: Le’Veon Bell
WR: Denzel Mims 
WR: Marvin Jones 
TE: Ian Thomas
TE: Adam Shaheen 
OL: Dennis Daley 

 

Edge: Rashan Gary
DT: Arik Armstead 
DT: DaQuan Jones 
Edge: Cam Jordan
WLB: Cory Littleton 
MLB: Nick Morrow
RCB: Kenny Moore
NCB: Isaiah Oliver
FS: Tyrann Mathieu 
SS: Jimmie Ward 
LCB: Richard Sherman

Edge: Jerry Hughes 
DT: Derrick Nnadi 
DT: Denico Autry
Rush LB: Alex Highsmith 
SLB: Vince Williams 
NCB: Isaiah Oliver
SS: Khari Willis
S/CB: Eric Rowe

 

GOTHAM

OFFENSE

QB - Derek Carr

RB - Mike Davis

WR - Tyreek Hill

WR - Tee Higgins 

WR - Jerry Jeudy 

TE - Hayden Hurst

LT - Jake Matthews

LG - Laken Tomlinson

C - Maurkice Pouncey

RG - Shaq Mason  

RT - Mike McGlinchey

 

RB - Adrian Peterson

RB - Kerryon Johnson

WR - Jarvis Landry

WR - Keelan Cole

TE - Eric Ebron

OL - Kaleb McGary

OL - Lucas Patrick

OL - Lloyd Cushenberry

 

DEFENSE

EDGE - Brandon Graham

INT - Chris Jones

INT - JJ Watt

EDGE - Whitney Mercilus

SLB - KJ Wright

WLB - Zach Cunningham

SPY - Minkah Fitzpatrick

CB - Xavien Howard

CB - Xavier Rhodes

CB - Jason Verrett

S - Justin Simmons

 

EDGE - AJ Epenesa

EDGE - Kemoko Turay

INT - Derek Wolfe

INT - Henry Anderson

LB - Damien Wilson

LB - Germaine Pratt

CB - Rasul Douglas

S - Bobby McCain

[Ragnarok]

CUBA

Intro: Gotham defeated us in week one with Carson Wentz at QB, and we have not forgotten the bitter taste of defeat. They have made some slight changes but the notable one is we’ll deal with Derek Carr in this matchup. We see some similarities to our team and look forward to seeing a significantly improved Gotham team compared to last year.

Offense

This is a difficult matchup considering the talent Gotham has across their defense. Gotham went after us in two ways in our previous matchup; blitz Watson to force him to get the ball out quickly then double our top weapons to render our offense from being effective. David DeCastro was out that game and his presence should significantly help. The other added dimension in this game is Mekhi Becton has turned into a quality performer when he’s healthy. With a much better offensive line to protect Watson, we think the time in the pocket will make a difference trying to find the isolated non Julio option Gotham will not target.

There is one way to make Gotham use less of the two man under scheme and that’s using Dalvin Cook. We have enough weapons to force favorable matchups, the goal then becomes players performing at high levels with what we ask them to do. With Mekhi moving to the left side we’ve now got quality bookends in the running game on both sides. If Watt does not start at the edge spot we feel comfortable running behind Mekhi and letting his 6’9, 360 frame wear down Brandon Graham who would be dealing with an almost one hundred pound disadvantage. We’ll add some inside zones and occasional toss plays to the left now that we have an  elite run blocker on that side. DeCastro being back allows for a better protection scheme inside and gives Cook the best chance to have success on a variety of run concepts rather then simply imposing our will on an elite Gotham defensive line.

For our passing attack, we are secretly hoping Gotham puts someone else on top of Xavien Howard to deal with Julio. That’s the only way he wouldn’t ascend to the top of our target share, but with a better run game Gotham should be forced to commit one of those elite safeties to the box and that’ll give a lethal Watson the opportunity to make plays and throw our receivers open on a frequent basis. Xavier Rhodes has had an excellent rebound year, but he and Jason Verrett have combined for 3 interceptions this year. Justin Jefferson has earned the role to be a significant contributor regardless of assignment and should be targeted more then Julio if he faces the Xavien/safety help treatment. Jefferson’s target share is going to be vertical routes in form of back shoulder fades against press coverage, and combinations of dig routes + curls against off man as Jefferson has shown comfort making vertical plays down field.

Minkah Fitzpatrick and Justin Simmons are two elite players that need to be accounted for on just about every play. The easiest accommodation is running Dalvin Cook but we’ve got a nice combination of 2 RB sets with Kyle Juszczyk or Jamaal Williams giving a different look from our base 3 WR set. The other noticeable implementation is we want Denzel Mims to get a little more run especially with Jason Verrett being left as the 3rd CB. While he’s a fine player in terms of skill set, both DJ Chark and Denzel Mims have a significant size advantage that will led Watson to going after that 3rd CB on deep shots if necessary. The idea of Gotham playing zone would change our gameplan, but in that aspect we would aim for a heavy target share of out routes to our boundary receivers and the occasional crossing routes when Julio or Justin Jefferson work in the slot. Gotham is one of the elite defenses that make you pick a poison so we look forward to seeing how they matchup and go about our business accordingly.

 

Defense

In the first game we considered if Tyreek Hill should be our number one concern and there are grave concerns when he isn’t accounted for. The good thing is with Carr, he’s not a traditional deep target QB. That helps a little bit but Hill is the best deep threat by far and we’ll have to account for that if we want a serious chance at winning this game. With a healthy secondary intact led by Richard Sherman’s return we can now give safety help for the slot CB if he’s tasked with that matchup. Kenny Moore and Sherman can handle Hill for underneath targets but we’ll have safeties shadow Hill’s way some occasions. At other times, the safety will be up to 20 yards down the field shading Hill’s side. Gotham can certainly try taking those deep shots still but we’ve got players accountable for Hill with guys who can force takeaways in Mathieu and Ward alternating the responsibilities.

We are devoting most of our coverage responsibilities to covering Tyreek Hill and will have to sacrifice letting Tee Higgins and Jerry Jeudy deal with the rest of our secondary. Our coverages will alternate with man and zone, but we will not shadow at any instance in the game. This means our guys will maintain their stationary spots and we think this will significantly give Sherman an advantage against a combination of impressive rookies. Jenkins and Moore have been steady in the backend so we aren’t necessarily mismatches if they aren’t given consistent safety help.

Ordinarily, Josh Jacobs would’ve been unquestionably our second player to stop but his absence prepared us for Mike Davis or a timeshare role with AP + Davis being featured a bit more in today’s game. We have a front four capable of generating a pass rush and will let Cory Littleton  + Nick Morrow clean up in the second level. We want to run some safety blitzes with the other one accounting for Hill so we can occasionally get our seven man fronts. We’ve got some stability at LB with Vince Williams coming off the bench should Gotham plan to run traditional I formations or two TE sets. The name of the game is making things difficult by bringing enough guys at the LOS to handle cutback lanes and any movement Gotham can get on our front four.

Speaking of pass rush, we took the bye week to reassess and decided to start Rashan Gary at the edge position this week. It’ll be a rotational game with the spot opposite Cam Jordan as Hughes and Autry will get some playing time and Arik Armstead moves to edge on short down situations so Nnadi can add more run defense against the Shaq Mason led interior. We will let Cam Jordan move around the DL to find a matchup we think he can frequently win. Expect him to lineup against Matthews frequently and we’ll move him inside to go against Laken Tomlinson when we bring our own NASCAR package (Hughes/Jordan/Armstead/Gary) to maximize our possible pressures with just 4. While Carr has unquestionably played better then Wentz, we’ve got one profound difference in terms of skill set as Carr is not a threat to use his legs to try and beat us. As a result we think some of those pressure packages could force him into mistakes that our back seven is comfortable making on the handful of occasions they come about.

 

GOTHAM

The BDL regular season comes to an end, but it feels like we’ve been playing playoff level matchups for the past 6 weeks.  We are poised to enter the playoffs as the #1 seed with a win over a division rival who is desperate to get into the playoffs themselves.  We have no intention of letting them in and look to deny them entry into postseason play.

OFFENSE (60% Pass 40% Run) - 3 WR/TE/RB Base

Facing a depleted Cuba defense that is limited in flexibility and has some weakness in their secondary, we are going to pass more than normal this week, looking for Carr to get the ball into our playmakers hands.

Passing Game:  Looking at Cuba’s secondary, we are going to run mostly 3 and 4 WR sets this week.  We don’t think they can match up personnel wise with our receiver group and we will leverage attention on Hill to spread it around and take advantage of talent mismatches.  

Cuba gets Sherman back and he will likely cover Hill with help over the top, this is going to open a lot of opportunities for Carr downfield.  Hill and Higgins will line up outside and will be read #1 if Kenny Moore or Isaiah Oliver is lined up over either, Moore can’t match Hill’s speed or Higgins size and Oliver is a liability in coverage.  We are going to test Cuba’s depth and play a significant amount of 4 WR sets and get those match ups we are looking for.  We don’t mind targeting Hill in singles against Sherman, I don’t think he can get close to limiting him if used that way.  

To mix it up, we plan on running a significant amount of 12 personnel as well, again revealing depth issues in Cuba’s back 7 where they don’t have anyone who matches out TEs well outside of Kendricks, who is usually manning the middle.  If Kendricks moves over a TE, we’re running up the middle.  If Kendricks is not in coverage we’re hitting our TEs on intermediate seam routes with a safety likely hovering over Hill.

Running Game:  With Jacobs out this week, we start Mike Davis but we will basically be a RB by committee, with AP and Kerryon getting looks as well.  We will rotate them by drive, with Davis getting 2 for every 1 for Peterson and 1 for Johnson.  By keeping them fresh and giving different looks to Cubas defense, we feel we can keep the Smugglers off balance and again dip into depth that doesn’t match well.

Formations:

• 3 WR Base - 50% 

• 12 Personnel - 25% - Hill/Higgins/Hurst/Ebron

• 4 WR - 25% - Hill/Jeudy/Higgins/Landry

DEFENSE - Cover 1 SPY

Cuba’s offensive triplet in Watson, Cook and Jefferson probably have the highest ceiling over the next few years than any other in BDL, the sky is the limit for this group.  We believe we match up well defensively to limit them and it starts with focussing on Dalvin Cook. 

SPY:  Minkah reprises his SPY role and will play up in the box with the focus of stopping Dalvin Cook.  Fitz will line up about 5 yards off the line of scrimmage with Cook in the backfield, and over him if he is motioned or lined up in the slot.  With a heavier box, we want Dalvin to face more bodies up the middle, while also making it tougher for him to run to the outside with Fitz able to match his lateral speed, preventing him from breaking off chunks by not letting him turn the corner and hit the jets. 

Run Defense:  In addition to Minkah, we have a stout run stop D Line that should be able to clog lanes up the middle.  Watt and Jones will focus on disrupting the interior while our DEs will focus on staying true and setting the edge.  Wright and Cunningham are there to attack and make plays in the hole and chase Cook down the line.  We will run blitz frequently with those 2, having Fitz as a safety net in pursuit to prevent misdirection and cutbacks.  We rotate in the bigger bodied Epenesa for Mercilus on obvious running downs.  Against 2 WR sets, Damien Wilson comes on as we employ a 4 - 4 front.

Pass Defense:  Watson is having a great season, but he has to get the ball to his playmakers in this one to be successful.  With Fitz SPYing his outlet in Cook, we feel Justin Jefferson requires the most attention otherwise.  We will play sides with Howard and Rhodes, but will have Justin Simmons play over the top of whoever is covering Jefferson.  JJ is yet another explosive weapon that we don’t want to let burn us deep for an explosive play.  Against 3WR sets, Verrett plays the slot.  Wright has coverage on MAC out of 1 TE base sets, Cunningham against TE2 out of 2TE sets.

Pressure:  We feel we can get pressure with just 4 in this one, especially up the middle.  With our coverage scheme, we think we can get a couple coverage sacks as well.  One important aspect is for our D Line to get their hands up on short dropbacks to prevent quick slants or rub routes from being successful; maybe we get a tip or a pick 6, like JJ had last week.  With Fitz being up in the box, having a sure handed turnover machine should provide useful on tips at the line.

[pheltzbahr]

"With a healthy secondary intact..."

You have 3 active CBs in this one.

[MD4L]

29 minutes ago, pheltzbahr said:

"With a healthy secondary intact..."

You have 3 active CBs in this one.

Jenoris Jenkins was ruled out this morning.
 

Eric Rowe, Tyrann Mathieu, and Jimmie Ward can all interchangeably play nickel without issue. Rowe can actually play boundary but we aren’t using him there this game. 

Edited December 7, 2020 by MD4L

[pheltzbahr]

40 minutes ago, MD4L said:

Jenoris Jenkins was ruled out this morning.
 

Eric Rowe, Tyrann Mathieu, and Jimmie Ward can all interchangeably play nickel without issue. Rowe can actually play boundary but we aren’t using him there this game. 

Jenkins was ruled out Friday.  Just thought it was an interesting choice of words.

Willis is out as well.

[Jlash]

Quote

Cuba’s offensive triplet in Watson, Cook and Jefferson probably have the highest ceiling over the next few years than any other in BDL

 

Gonna be cool to pay Watson and Cook 40K next year too!

 

 

[Jlash]

Who is Jenkins @MD4L

Quote

Jenkins and Moore have been steady in the backend so we aren’t necessarily mismatches if they aren’t given consistent safety help.

edit: Didn't read your and Pheltz comments, I see Oliver was listed as a starter and reserve now.

Edited December 9, 2020 by Jlash

[Jlash]

Just like in most matchups this season, Gotham's secondary is really what makes the difference here to me. So many teams with multi faceted attacks, so many defenses without the ability to match up man to man with all of them. And his front 7 is equipped to handle Cook IMO. 

I don't necessarily like the idea of Sherman on Hill much, I think Hill's short area quickness would be a problem for Sherman right now. With Pheltz seeing the bracket coverage coming for Hill, Higgins and Jeudy could have big days against Moore and Oliver with heavy targets. 

 

[bcb1213]

1 hour ago, Jlash said:

Just like in most matchups this season, Gotham's secondary is really what makes the difference here to me. So many teams with multi faceted attacks, so many defenses without the ability to match up man to man with all of them. And his front 7 is equipped to handle Cook IMO. 

I don't necessarily like the idea of Sherman on Hill much, I think Hill's short area quickness would be a problem for Sherman right now. With Pheltz seeing the bracket coverage coming for Hill, Higgins and Jeudy could have big days against Moore and Oliver with heavy targets. 

 

This 

[Blue]

I'm just here so I don't get fined.

[MD4L]

@pheltzbahr don’t forget to vote 

[VigilantZombie]

Both defenses are very good. Both offenses have talent. But I trust the running game and overall weapons more for Cuba.

24-21 Cuba

[Ragnarok]

I think Cuba gets this one in a mild upset with both teams having very good write ups..  Their weapons are excellent at this point and no Jacobs hurts Gotham.  

[RuskieTitan]

I think Cuba is able to match up with Gotham effectively. Close game, but road team. Hill has a couple of big plays that end up being the difference, Sherman isn't the best option on Hill even with safety help.