Slingin' Sammy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, BayRaider said: I doubt 49ers get swept by the Cardinals, and I don't think they'll beat the Rams in Los Angeles. Even if Arizona does win one of those, I could absolutely see the Bears beating Green Bay at home. Bears are coming together and catching fire, and much better under Mitch right now. Plus, they still have a Top 5 Defense. I would put money on the Cards sweeping them. They always play the 49ers tough. How exactly are the Bears catching fire? Because they beat a couple lousy teams? Didn’t the Lions smoke them like two weeks ago? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClutchDJ Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 28 minutes ago, BayRaider said: I doubt 49ers get swept by the Cardinals, and I don't think they'll beat the Rams in Los Angeles. Even if Arizona does win one of those, I could absolutely see the Bears beating Green Bay at home. Bears are coming together and catching fire, and much better under Mitch right now. Plus, they still have a Top 5 Defense. Really? They have 5 out the past 6 years, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 (edited) DON'T BET MONEY ON GREEN BAY IN THE PLAYOFFS ALERT!!! Hard pass on Green Bay homefield being a huge deal this year. Their home schedule this year was pathetic. The 5-5 Bears who had not won in 40 days were the toughest team they faced at home until the Titans this week? Or was it the 1-5 Vikings coming off a shellacking by the Falcons? They ran the ball all over the Packers and stopped them 2x on 4th downs to win The 0-3 Falcons? The Wentz powered 3-7-1 Eagles? The 0-1 Lions without Golladay They had to come back in the 4th on the 1-7 Jags Jake Luton started that game for the Jags Maybe the one score win against the 4-9 Panthers makes them an obvious 2020 homefield juggernaut? Rodgers is 4-2 in the playoffs at Lambeau and they have scored 30+ only once in those 6 games. (Party Boat Giants) Edited December 22, 2020 by SkippyX 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 of the 7 teams the Packers faced at home this year are currently on a different QB(3) or head coach(2). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpeightTheVillain Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, SkippyX said: DON'T BET MONEY ON GREEN BAY IN THE PLAYOFFS ALERT!!! Hard pass on Green Bay homefield being a huge deal this year. Their home schedule this year was pathetic. The 5-5 Bears who had not won in 40 days were the toughest team they faced at home until the Titans this week? Or was it the 1-5 Vikings coming off a shellacking by the Falcons? They ran the ball all over the Packers and stopped them 2x on 4th downs to win The 0-3 Falcons? The Wentz powered 3-7-1 Eagles? The 0-1 Lions without Golladay They had to come back in the 4th on the 1-7 Jags Jake Luton started that game for the Jags Maybe the one score win against the 4-9 Panthers makes them an obvious 2020 homefield juggernaut? Rodgers is 4-2 in the playoffs at Lambeau and they have scored 30+ only once in those 6 games. (Party Boat Giants) A 66% win percentage in the playoffs is not good? Packers are 19-3 at home in December with Rodgers starting. The advantage is real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 (edited) This home schedule is just so much statistical fun. When the Packers faced the: Lions (most recent win was last season) Falcons (most recent win was last season) Vikings (most recent win was 28 days back) Bears (most recent win was 40 days back) Eagles (most recent win was 35 days back) Jags (most recent win was 63 days back) Panthers (most recent win was 27 days back) These teams were a combined 14-37-1 😄 That's not exactly what you call battle tested. Edited December 22, 2020 by SkippyX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2020 Opponents (all 14 games) the Packers faced that won their last game before the matchup: Colts (1 game win streak) Lions (1 game win streak) The Titans are on a 2 game win streak and the Bears could be on a 3 game streak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 For reference, the first time the Seahawks faced a team that lost their previous game was November 15th The Chiefs faced 6 out of 13 teams that won their previous game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WheatieMan Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Was Carolina WFT flexed to 4:05 ET from 1pm? This will keep more viewers in tune with Cowboys Eagles... but I don’t see an official announcement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WheatieMan Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 (edited) Check that... announced here: https://www.nfl.com/news/carolina-panthers-washington-football-team-week-16-matchup-moved-to-late-window Edited December 22, 2020 by WheatieMan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UncleAdamz Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 16 hours ago, BayRaider said: Yeah, unless Arizona wins out, which isn’t likely, looking like Chicago. They are catching fire at the right time. We need the Packers to lose this week so they have some more motivation going into the game vs the Bears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Buck Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 At this point, I'm thinking it will be either the Rams or the Bucs. None of the NFC teams should strike too much fear into the better AFC teams this year though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 13 hours ago, SkippyX said: Hard pass on Green Bay homefield being a huge deal this year. Luckily, people who do adjust for level of competition provide us all with a very nice metric so we don't have to try and kludge together random, incomplete and biased attempts ourselves! GB is currently 4th overall in DVOA, 3rd in the NFC behind NO and TB. So yes, I probably wouldn't bet on GB (vs the field) straight up either. But their odds are better than any other individual team this year (according to 538) in the NFC if they clinch HFA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said: At this point, I'm thinking it will be either the Rams or the Bucs. None of the NFC teams should strike too much fear into the better AFC teams this year though. NFC is stronger overall than AFC this year. I don't understand why there's an impression to the contrary: Average AFC DVOA: -2.6% - Average NFC DVOA: 2.7% Median AFC DVOA: -4.2% - Median NFC DVOA: -1.7% NFC has 3 of the top 4: NO, TB, GB AFC has 5 of the bottom 5: LAC, CIN, DEN, JAX, NYJ Ranking the teams 1-16 in each conference, the nth best NFC team is ranked higher than the nth best AFC team in 14/16 occurrences: NO > KC TB > PIT GB > BUF LAR > IND SEA > BAL ARI < MIA SF < TEN CHI > CLE WAS > NE CAR > LV MIN > HOU ATL > LAC DAL > CIN DET > DEN PHI > JAX NYG > NYJ Looking at each tier in the conferences: The Top 7 AFC teams have an average DVOA of 16.4% while the Top 7 NFC teams have an average DVOA of 16.6%. The Middle 4 AFC teams have an average DVOA of -7.6% while the Middle 4 NFC teams have an average DVOA of -2.6% The Bottom 5 AFC teams have an average DVOA of -25.1% while the Bottom 5 NFC teams have an average DVOA of -12.5% The NFC is better across every tier (virtual tie among Top 7, however). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UncleAdamz Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, incognito_man said: NFC is stronger overall than AFC this year. I don't understand why there's an impression to the contrary: I agree with this, although I think it is mainly because the AFC is so "bottom-heavy". There aren't many, if any, really bad NFC teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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