Defense Discussion [2017]

[AlexGreen#20]

4 hours ago, packfanfb said:

I'll take a quick stab at this: 

A super-bowl caliber defense is one that does NOT: 

1. Give up 200 yards rushing to a now-irrelevant QB who literally became relevant because of his game(s) against your defense; 

2. Give up 3 straight TD's to a hap-less offense like Seattle in the NFCCG when our offense is struggling and needs to rely on the D for once to play a full 60-minute game; 

3. Automatically lose the game if we lose the coin toss in OT because it's an automatic TD for the opposing team while ARod has to stand on the sideline and watch without even getting a chance. See Seattle 2014 and Arizona 2015.

4. Give up 40+ points to ANY team EVER in the postseason. See Arizona 2009, SF 2011 and Atlanta 2016.  

I won't even talk about some of the regular season debacles. But, at the very least, if (1) we could just cut down on some of the border-line record-setting days that opposing offenses have against us in big games, and (2) actually stop a team's offense in the 4th quarter/OT when it matters, that would go a long way.

When do we forgive 2012? It's been 5 years.

[packfanfb]

3 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

When do we forgive 2012? It's been 5 years.

Don't know about forgive, but I'd move on it if the philosophy or methodology had changed since then, but aren't we churning out the same product, just with different parts? 

[AlexGreen#20]

3 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Don't know about forgive, but I'd move on it if the philosophy or methodology had changed since then, but aren't we churning out the same product, just with different parts? 

I feel like the defensive philosophy has changed at least somewhat sense then. Have he had a bad experience with a running QB since then? I can't recall one. 

In fact I feel like our run defense as a whole has been fairly strong in the last several seasons since that game?

What would you constitute a change in philosophy or methodology? Switching to a 4-3?

[packfanfb]

Just now, AlexGreen#20 said:

I feel like the defensive philosophy has changed at least somewhat sense then. Have he had a bad experience with a running QB since then? I can't recall one. 

In fact I feel like our run defense as a whole has been fairly strong in the last several seasons since that game?

What would you constitute a change in philosophy or methodology? Switching to a 4-3?

No, we haven't been Kaepernick'd since then, although I'm not sure how many opportunities have occurred since then either in terms of facing those types of QBs. Kaep fell off a cliff after the '13 season IIRC. 

I haven't had many complaints about the run defense, and that wasn't really the issue against SF anyways. Not like Kaep was a RB gashing us on traditional run plays. Our problem since '09 (absent our SB year) has been pass defense, all the way back to what Warner did to us in Arizona. I don't feel like that has changed under Capers at all. Same problems in the middle of the field, for example. 

I don't necessarily believe a 4-3 is a must although I wouldn't be opposed. I would be interested to see how our current roster could handle it. Perry prob puts his hand down. Matthews moves to a SLB. I think a guy like Daniels would kill it in a 4-3, probably double-digit sacks. Same reason I'm expecting Datone Jones to probably have his best statistical year this year with Minny. That being said, I'm a novice when it comes to defensive scheming but I have to believe 3-4 defenses, like any other, are ran differently by different coordinators, and more than anything I think Capers's said-to-be "complex" scheme butts heads with Thompson's "go young" philosophy. Seems like each year we have to wait 1-2 years for a defensive starter to "get it" and fully integrate into the system and by then, a couple other vets at different positions have left and are replaced by a few new rookies and it starts over again. 

 

[deltarich87]

24 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

When do we forgive 2012? It's been 5 years.

Forgive who? Capers? The game itself I'm over because as you said....5 yrs ago,  but damn that game was rough, especially with players saying that Capers didn't even have his guys practicing the read option during the week of preparation. That blew my mind

 

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, packfanfb said:

No, we haven't been Kaepernick'd since then, although I'm not sure how many opportunities have occurred since then either in terms of facing those types of QBs. Kaep fell off a cliff after the '13 season IIRC. 

I haven't had many complaints about the run defense, and that wasn't really the issue against SF anyways. Not like Kaep was a RB gashing us on traditional run plays. Our problem since '09 (absent our SB year) has been pass defense, all the way back to what Warner did to us in Arizona. I don't feel like that has changed under Capers at all. Same problems in the middle of the field, for example. 

I don't necessarily believe a 4-3 is a must although I wouldn't be opposed. I would be interested to see how our current roster could handle it. Perry prob puts his hand down. Matthews moves to a SLB. I think a guy like Daniels would kill it in a 4-3, probably double-digit sacks. Same reason I'm expecting Datone Jones to probably have his best statistical year this year with Minny. That being said, I'm a novice when it comes to defensive scheming but I have to believe 3-4 defenses, like any other, are ran differently by different coordinators, and more than anything I think Capers's said-to-be "complex" scheme butts heads with Thompson's "go young" philosophy. Seems like each year we have to wait 1-2 years for a defensive starter to "get it" and fully integrate into the system and by then, a couple other vets at different positions have left and are replaced by a few new rookies and it starts over again. 

 

70+% of passing yards given up happens between the hashmarks in the NFL. That's not GB, that's across the league. We don't get beat over the middle as a percentage of yards given up any more than most teams. That's life in the NFL. You blitz up the middle on 3rd down to generate pressure, you open and expand zones in the middle of the field that offenses exploit. That's life in the NFL.

We play nickel the vast majority of the time. Perry and Clay would still be edge rushers. Daniels would still be a 3-tech on the strong side. Kenny Clark would still be a Center shade inside NT. The foundati

Geno Atkins led the league in sacks from an interior rusher last season. He had 9 last season. Aaron Donald had the second most with 8. Expecting Mike Daniels to all of a sudden lead the league in sacks at his position because the guy next to him went from standing up to having his hand on the ground doesn't make sense to me.

[AlexGreen#20]

8 minutes ago, deltarich87 said:

Forgive who? Capers? The game itself I'm over because as you said....5 yrs ago,  but damn that game was rough, especially with players saying that Capers didn't even have his guys practicing the read option during the week of preparation. That blew my mind

 

The 49ers didn't run a lot of read option in 2012. Harbaugh basically kept it under wraps until the playoffs.

[MacReady]

Like I've been saying for a while, it's not Capers and it's not Thompson, it's their inability to coexist. 

Every year our defense has struggled really badly, you could point to major holes from injury or going into the season without covering them. 

2012 had Bishop and Perry both on IR.  We went into that playoff game with Matthews, who was hurt, Walden, who was crap, Zombo and Moses at OLB.  We went into the game light at EDGE players, and by the time the game was over, we had Datone Jones having to play there because we suffered so many injuries.  Most teams won't go into a playoff game with three healthy pass rushers who wouldn't start on 25 other teams and their best pass rusher hurt.  Thompson did.  It was a really, really, really bad defensive roster. 

Thompson's methods can work and have worked.
Caper's defense can work and has worked.

Caper's methods and Thompson's methods don't work together.  If Matthews and Perry stay healthy this year, it'll be a good defense.  Not just okay, but good.  If one of those two isn't healthy heading into the playoffs or throughout the season, it will be a bad defense because we all know Thompson won't do anything about it and Capers will have to do what he can with one effective pass rusher. 

[AlexGreen#20]

I take issue with blaming the defense solely for the team's lack of superbowl appearances. The offense hasn't scored more than 25 points in a playoff loss since the suberbowl year.

2016 was a complete team failure.

2015 the offense scored 20 points in regulation. 

2014 the offense scored 13 points in regulation. Defense got the offense the ball in FG range and we ended up kicking FGs three times. Defense also forced 5 TOs.

2013 the offense scored 20 points in regulation. Had 281 total yards and went 3/11 on 3rd down. 

2012 the defense was a **** show but the offense also only scored 24 points.

2011 was primarily a defensive struggle, but the offense only scored 20 points. 

Since the superbowl year, the offense hasn't scored more than 25 points in a playoff loss. That's a problem. 

 

[skibrett15]

it's not just playoff performance though.  The offense is consistently better than the defense over the last 7 years on a season long basis.  Ergo, the strategy should be to improve the defense.

The best way I see to improve the defense was to change the coordinator after 2016.  Hopefully he can make it work since it's too late now.  It's not impossible that it all works out; I just happen to think that he's less likely to help the team than almost any other qualified candidate.

The act of firing Capers and replacing him would have a positive externality on the quality of the defense.  And I don't think you could empirically do any worse than him unless you tried.

48 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Since the superbowl year, the offense hasn't scored more than 25 points in a playoff loss.

Since 2011, the defense hasn't won the team a single game in the playoffs, and GB has only won 2 regular season games where the offense scored 20 or fewer points (@ ravens, @SF).  Baltimore has 13 such wins in the same time frame.

The level of disparity between the quality of the Offense and Defense is striking year after year.

[incognito_man]

6 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

it's not just playoff performance though.  The offense is consistently better than the defense over the last 7 years on a season long basis.  Ergo, the strategy should be to improve the defense.

The best way I see to improve the defense was to change the coordinator after 2016.  Hopefully he can make it work since it's too late now.  It's not impossible that it all works out; I just happen to think that he's less likely to help the team than almost any other qualified candidate.

The act of firing Capers and replacing him would have a positive externality on the quality of the defense.  And I don't think you could empirically do any worse than him unless you tried.

Since 2011, the defense hasn't won the team a single game in the playoffs, and GB has only won 2 regular season games where the offense scored 20 or fewer points (@ ravens, @SF).  Baltimore has 13 such wins in the same time frame.

The level of disparity between the quality of the Offense and Defense is striking year after year.

2012 vs CHI offense scored 16 and won

2012 vs JAX offense scored 17 and won

2012 vs DET offense scored 17 and won

 

so that's 3 more just in 2012, I'm sure there are others since 2013 as well, but I stopped. I don't disagree that the offense is better, this will likely always be true when you have the best player in the league at the most important position and the biggest cap hit of the team on that side of the ball.

I also think your statement that you couldn't do "empirically" worse than Capers is ridiculous.

[skibrett15]

2 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

2012 vs CHI offense scored 16 and won

2012 vs JAX offense scored 17 and won

2012 vs DET offense scored 17 and won

none of those happened exactly that way, but I think we're mixed up.

23-10 win over chicago, 21-13 win over chicago, 24-15 vs Jax, 27-20 vs detroit and 24-20 vs detroit.  

Point I was making was for GB to score 20 or under, and still win.  i.e. 17-3 vs SF in 2015

[skibrett15]

5 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I also think your statement that you couldn't do "empirically" worse than Capers is ridiculous.

If you fired capers, you'd hire someone who is best available in the market, or you promote Moss.  Both are better than Capers.

Capers is not the biggest problem.  I just think he's the easiest problem to solve.

[incognito_man]

3 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

none of those happened exactly that way, but I think we're mixed up.

23-10 win over chicago, 21-13 win over chicago, 24-15 vs Jax, 27-20 vs detroit and 24-20 vs detroit.  

Point I was making was for GB to score 20 or under, and still win.  i.e. 17-3 vs SF in 2015

The defense (or special teams) scored some of those points. The offense did not. You can't count points the defense scores against them in an argument.

[AlexGreen#20]

3 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

none of those happened exactly that way, but I think we're mixed up.

23-10 win over chicago, 21-13 win over chicago, 24-15 vs Jax, 27-20 vs detroit and 24-20 vs detroit.  

Point I was making was for GB to score 20 or under, and still win.  i.e. 17-3 vs SF in 2015

Why does the offense get credit for FGs on drives that started in opposing territory from the defense or defensive stops?