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Week 16 GDT - Broncos at Chargers


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Given Herbert's emergence, this is a signature game for Lock's future in DEN IMO.   LAC isn't nearly as tough as BUF's pass D - esp with Ingram out, and Bosa hurting.  But their secondary still can create problems, and CHJ will be playing this game.    

Lock doesn't have to reproduce the CAR game - but he has to show more progress in read progression, and against pressure.   LV's D is so bad, that I doubt a week 17 showing alone will quell any doubts in the FO (and I think it's pretty clear the FO isn't going to be sold enough to go it alone with Lock - so really, this is about how strong of a vet push the FO makes - or a Rd1 push - which IMO is Plan C, given their wish to compete, which a mid-Rd1 rookie QB rarely helps with).  

Really, that's the main reason to watch - and of course, hope that our young core gets through the game healthy, with no major injuries.  

I touched on the other side story - if we lose, I actually think it benefits our org indirectly, but in a very tangible way - it gives Anthony Lynn life at staying in LAC, esp with them playing KC week 17 (who likely rest starters with the 1 seed likely locked up this week).   Make no mistake, the worst thing for us would be for Lynn to get fired - because with the firings that have taken place (BOB & ATL), and the ones that will for sure go down (Gase),  Lynn owns the crown for worst game manager around.    As bad as Fangio is (and it's bad, bottom 5 IMO) - no one comes close to Lynn.    And the OC-turned-HC pool is deep in great talent this year - Bienemy, Daboll & Joe Brady would be A+ hires for LAC.   So ironically, a L to the Chargers might actually help us most (lose the battle, win the war).    Obviously I'm not rooting for the team to not show up, or deliberately try to lose - but a L won't faze me in the least, long-term.   I would like to see Lock show clear progress, however - but I'm not very hopeful, TBH.   Maybe he'll prove me wrong.

Edited by Broncofan
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6 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

I'd hate to be in last place in the division, but this seems like a key game to lose for draft positioning.

Looking at this a little deeper, a loss on Sunday would move us up from 13 to 11, at the very least. The Texans are touchdown favourites vs the Bengals, if they win that, the tiebreaker between us would basically be a coin flip (that I *think* would go our way?). So possibly as high as into the 10th draft pick. Being at that spot more or less guarantees Parsons, Farley, or Surtain will be available. 

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No Bosa, no Hunter Henry and Keenan Allen a gametime decision (and with hammy injuries, it's likely he's nowhere close to 100 percent).

It would honestly be surprising if we didn't win, and certainly there would be no excuses.   We likely won't ever face the Chargers this short-handed for the foreseeable future.

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1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

No Bosa, no Hunter Henry and Keenan Allen a gametime decision (and with hammy injuries, it's likely he's nowhere close to 100 percent).

It would honestly be surprising if we didn't win, and certainly there would be no excuses.   We likely won't ever face the Chargers this short-handed for the foreseeable future.

Yeah but we're super thin at corner too

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53 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

No Bosa, no Hunter Henry and Keenan Allen a gametime decision (and with hammy injuries, it's likely he's nowhere close to 100 percent).

It would honestly be surprising if we didn't win, and certainly there would be no excuses.   We likely won't ever face the Chargers this short-handed for the foreseeable future.

Still 3 point dogs. Let’s not confuse this: the Chargers are better than us, Bosa or not. They’re top 8 in yards, both offence and defence. Their point differential discrepancy is half of what ours is. If they had a coach who had a brain in the last 5 minutes of the half, they’re probably in playoff contention. 

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51 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Still 3 point dogs. Let’s not confuse this: the Chargers are better than us, Bosa or not. They’re top 8 in yards, both offence and defence. Their point differential discrepancy is half of what ours is. If they had a coach who had a brain in the last 5 minutes of the half, they’re probably in playoff contention. 

The 3 pt dog is historical for HFA and betting lines - the reality is this is as weak as the Chargers will be.  I'm the wrong person to argue with on our team not being a contender or worse than any other AFCW team - I've been singing that tune since our 2016 season happened (and I mean, I've picked the Chargers in the pool, and won't be changing that, either).    I mean, read what I said above earlier this week - losing this game is best for us in the long run not solely for draft position, but it likely is the nail in Anthony Lynn's HC tenure in LAC. 

What I'm saying is that if we lose, there are pretty much no excuses on our end.   This is now a very winnable game for DEN.    You take away Bosa, Allen/Henry, and you do add Anthony Lynn to the mix, a W shouldn't be surprising at all.  Frankly, a 3-pt spread on the road already implies that.   A L probably further drives home the notion that we won't stand pat with our O loud & clearly to the FO - it's just a question of degrees for next year, of how much we hedge our bets with Lock at this stage. 

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25 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The 3 pt dog is historical for HFA and betting lines - the reality is this is as weak as the Chargers will be.  I'm the wrong person to argue with on our team not being a contender or worse than any other AFCW team - I've been singing that tune since our 2016 season happened (and I mean, I've picked the Chargers in the pool, and won't be changing that, either).    I mean, read what I said above earlier this week - losing this game is best for us in the long run not solely for draft position, but it likely is the nail in Anthony Lynn's HC tenure in LAC. 

What I'm saying is that if we lose, there are pretty much no excuses on our end.   This is now a very winnable game for DEN.    You take away Bosa, Allen/Henry, and you do add Anthony Lynn to the mix, a W shouldn't be surprising at all.  Frankly, a 3-pt spread on the road already implies that.   A L probably further drives home the notion that we won't stand pat with our O loud & clearly to the FO - it's just a question of degrees for next year, of how much we hedge our bets with Lock at this stage. 

“This is now a very winnable game” is much different than your original “It would be surprising if we didn’t win.” This game is a toss up, just saying that no outcome should be surprising (besides a DEN blowout, probably.) 

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3 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said:

“This is now a very winnable game” is much different than your original “It would be surprising if we didn’t win.” This game is a toss up, just saying that no outcome should be surprising (besides a DEN blowout, probably.) 

That's fair, my main thrust wasn't towards whether we win or lose (probably should have said it wouldn't surprise me if we win, rather than being surprised at a L) - it was that there weren't excuses if we lost.    If we can't beat the Chargers with them missing Bosa & Allen/Henry - we can't really hold the position that we are in position to seriously think playoffs next year (I've said that 2021 was our earliest window - but that was predicated on Lock being a serviceable league-average QB or better).    

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