2021 Mock Draft

[warfelg]

No simulator used.  Compiling pick availability by using mocks from PFF, CBSSports, NFL.com, SB Nation (combining their average draft position), and ESPN.  

ROUND 1 PICK 24:

CBS has us going Teven Jenkins, with Jaelen Phillips going just ahead, Trevon Moehrig just after, and Jayson Oweh, Zaven Collins, Dickerson, Samuel Jr, Leatherwood still available (Harris is long gone in this mock).  NFL.com has us going Creed Humphrey, with Najee Harris in front of us, Alijah Vera-Tucker behind, with Owusu-Koramoah, Oweh, Leatherwood, Rousseau still on the board.  PFF has us going Najee Harris, with Newsome II in front and Oweh behind, with Collins, Cosmi, Leatherwood still on the board.

Now a couple of things to unpack:  Most the guys I've listed as "still available" are guys we have met or scouted heavily.  There's rumors out there that they are looking more for a developmental OT rather than a plug and play OT, so that's pushing that pick further back in the draft.  It seems as though the positions they are really going for and doing research in heavily is RB, DB, EDGE.

So with our first overall pick, in round 1 pick 24, I have us swerving hard off the expected route -

JAYSON OWEH, EDGE, PENN STATE

Oweh is a Tombert pick through and through.  Freak athlete, where at 6'5" 257 pounds he ripped off a 4.37 40-time, with a 6.9 3-cone, 4.2 short shuttle, 40" vert, and 134" broad. Long, lean, and explosive this kid needs some seasoning.  He's a Tombert special, Redshirt Sophomore, and 22 years old.  Despite not having much experience as a starter he's shown much in his limited time.  Has experience rushing from all over, and already has an arsenal of moves, he needs refinement.  If you thought Bud Dupree's last two years were good, that might be just an "average" year for this kid.  In year one, expect him to rotate with Hightower, before being able to fully take over by year 2.  While I personally like Hightower, I think he's better suited as a rotational player at EDGE as he lacks the elite edge skills Oweh has.

 

ROUND 2 PICK 37:

No, you aren't reading that wrong.  We're moving up.

Pittsburgh Steelers acquire pick 37, 189, and TE Zach Ertz from the Philadelphia Eagles for 55, 140, 2022 2nd, and James Washington.

Okay, got that?  It's a lot isn't it?  Value wise in terms of pick value, Philadelphia gives up 544.2 and Pittsburgh gives up 586 (2022 2nd valued at 200) so it's a little overpay on the pick side, with the player side evening that out.  I know Ertz isn't a cheap option, but he's a good blocker and reliable pass catcher if unspectacular.  I rather have a 2nd TE in the late years Heath mold than another rookie to have to develop.  He's a very Colbert pickup of final year of the contract who can contribute.

Now at pick 37 - PFF has guys like Stokes, Wyatt Davis, Radunz, Browning, Etienne available.  NFL.com has guys like Javonte Williams, Samuel Jr., Marshall Jr, and Dickerson available.

So with our second overall pick, round 2, pick 37, I have the Steelers going a little more expected position and taking:

TRAVIS ETIENNE, RB, CLEMSON

This pick pretty much plays the board like a fiddle.  They were able to get a player they wanted in the 1st at a value selection spot in the 2nd round, while taking the better overall player in the 1st at a more premium position.  Plenty has been said about Etienne on this board already, and I don't think much more needs to be added to that other than value at the later pick.  I can't see them trading down into the second to take him, but this is certainly a very Colbert move to pounce on filling a gap and getting a player they want while a rebuilding team looks to accumulate assets on the other end.  To see a pick change of 18 picks up, 49 picks down at the cost of a 2nd as well as a positional fit upgrade would be huge if this team wants to stay at or near the top of the AFCN this year.

 

ROUND 3 PICK 99:

We have another trade and the reasoning starts with this -

Now comes the long wait for our next pick in the draft.  If at all I see this team maybe moving down a touch right now as the need of OL is becoming glaring, but also we need some extra picks in this and future drafts.  PFF has us taking Tommy Tremble, with IOL Kendrick Green, OT Brady Christensen, OG Aaron Banks still around.  NFL.com has Walker Little going right before us, with OG Ben Cleveland, OT Brady Christensen, OT Spencer Brown, OC Drew Dalman still there.

However there's good defensive value right now, so I can see Dallas wanting to capitalize on that at this point for this trade.

Pittsburgh Steelers acquire pick 99, 115, and 179 from the Dallas Cowboys for pick 87 and 2022 4th round pick of the Steelers.

So the value here, the Cowboys give up 186.2 points on the 2021 draft value, and the Steelers are sending out 155 + about 30 for the 2022 pick.  Yes the Cowboys take a rouch of a hit, but it's very much worth it for them given the value of the picks.  I would say to look at the 2022 5th going out as it's the likely compensatory pick, but covering themselves with basically a trigger on the pick just in case for Dallas.  In the end for Colbert and Co, they can look at it as they moved up in the 2nd for the cost of a 2nd, and they split 87 and 140 into two closer together picks.

So then with their third overall selection, round 3, pick 99, the Steelers again do something expected with -

KENDRICK GREEN, IOL, ILLINOIS

Despite playing mostly OG in college, Green filled in for a few games at OC and actually looked better!!!! This is a HUGE development for him, and why I have us going with him here in the 3rd.  For the first year he can be an interior swing man with Finney and Hausenaur batting in camp for the starter position.  Green needs a little bit of time to learn a bit more of the OC position, but at 6'2" and 305 he's got the build.  He's a strong kid, with good feet, and a mean streak that could make the Hulk blush with envy.  He's a nasty player with heavy mitts to keep pass rushers off of him.  He gets straight line to the second level well and can latch onto LB'rs, but needs to get better at side to side movement.

 

ROUND 4 PICK 115:

Acquired via trade from Dallas Cowboys.

Now we settle in for the meat of the draft.  With picks 115, 128, 179, 189 (putting 4 picks in a 74 pick span) Colbert and Co can really look to the depth side of the equation with this team rather than looking at early contributors.  This will open up things like developmental OT, developmental IDL, slot CB, WR4 as positions we can target.  NFL.com has Amon-Ra St. Brown at 115, with Josh Myers, Kyle Trask, Vincent Jr still being options.  PFF has Stone Forsythe going here with Tre Brown, Obighizuwa, Smith-Marsette still around. 

Now at their fourth overall selection, round 4, pick 115, the Steelers select:

KARY VINCENT JR, CB, LSU

Why Kary Vincent Jr over some of the other positions?  Early playability rules the day here.  With the loss of Nelson (who's still a FA FWIW) and the new legal issues for Layne, the Steelers secondary is suddenly on shaky ground.  Despite 2 set guys in Sutton and Haden, Pierre is still maturing into the position.  Bringing in Vincent as a slot guy is a good move.  He's a typical Colbert blue chip special of a highly recruited player who didn't quite get challenged enough to evolve.  Super athletic, he needs refinement of how to play the CB position.  He does have ball skills but doesn't always spot it.  He's a Tomlin "splash play" type guy who, if taught discipline and technique, could be the DB steal of the draft.  War's top rule: never underestimate a LSU DB.

 

ROUND 4 PICK 128:

So not too long and we cycle back around for a pick, with still some options in play for what you can do here.  But right now I got a WR in mind, who is rising.  OT will have to wait a little longer.

With their fifth overall pick, round 4, pick 128, the Pittsburgh Steelers turn in the card for -

JOSH PALMER, WR, TENNESSEE

Palmer has good size, clocking in at 6'2" and 210 pounds.  He's as close to a carbon copy of Juju as you can get.  Makes contested catches, produced against NFL talent in the SEC (had success against Daniel and Stokes of UGA and Surtain of Bama).  His stats were plagued by terrible UT play at the QB position.  He has the ability to impact the game at al three levels.  Understands the route tree and ability to leverage guys.  Despite lacking breakaway ability (same was said for Juju), he can beat guys deep with awesome body control and strong hands on 50/50 balls.  Beats both man and zone coverages.

 

ROUND 5 PICK 179:

We are nearing the end of the slew of picks incoming that can still help this team.  But now we are in the clear developmental area.  Luckily for the guy I'm tagging here, we got some depth at this position to allow him to translate.

So in their sixth selection, round 5, pick 179, the Steelers look to the future with -

D'ANTE SMITH, OT, EAST CAROLINA

A touch undersized in the weight department, being able to get to 300+ and keep it there is the key for Smith to make it in the NFL.  But sometimes you can't teach certain things, and a 85-inch wingspan with 35 inch arms is one of those.  He's got good feet, ability to get to the second level, strong run blocker, and heavy hands.  He needs to play more within his body, needs to read pass rushers better, and add size/strength to his frame.  Given the Steelers success in getting Big Al to add weight, Banner to drop weight, and Okorafor to learn better footwork, I'm optimistic that the likely case for Smith is starting RT, with a low chance at LT, but a good chance at swing tackle/reporting eligible.

 

ROUND 6 PICK 189:

Pick acquired via trade from Philadelphia Eagles

If there's a spot to double dip in the draft this next position is it.  I believe this team needs an overhaul at this next position, and the player being selected will allow us to replace two players with one.  The big question here will be if he's willing to add special team snaps to his game.  If he can, he's going to be a lock for this team.

That said, with their seventh pick, round 6, pick 189, the Steelers select:

LARRY ROUNTREE III, RB, MISSOURI

Roundtree offers the best of Snell and the best of Samuels into one back.  Not the most elusive or powerful runner, he sees lanes well, gets himself small, and keeps his feet churning.  He's actually the 3rd most productive RB in this draft based on NCAA production.  A willing pass blocker and catcher he won't hurt you in those situations, which is different from Snell who's a tell of running and Samuel who is a tell of passing.  On top of that he's got some upside in his 5'10" 218 pound frame.  He's going to be a nice thunder 1-speed back to counter Etienne's lightning multiple gear back.  In fact, the ability to play him and Etienne in the same package is what draws me to him as the offense would be incredibly unpredictable.

 

ROUND 6 PICK 216:

We're firmly in the "lets challenge" someone phase of the draft by putting someone on the spot IMO.

That said short and sweet, the eighth pick, round 6, pick 216 for the Pittsburgh Steelers:

JAMES SMITH, P, CINCINATTI

I know, a punter.  He's got an unconventional punting style, and inconsistent hangtime due to it, but my god this kid can kick.  On top of that he punts well under pressure, and is big for a punter at 6'5" and 240 LBs.  Former Australian rules football player you know he isn't afraid of contact.  Reminds me of former Steelers punter Daniel Sepulvida, but bigger.

 

ROUND 7, PICK 245

ANTONIO PHILLIPS, CB, BALL STATE

A real value pick at this point for the 6 foot 190 pound CB.  Extremely productive, the question is going to be the long speed and explosiveness.  More of an outside zone DB, he's suited for Cover-1 and Cover-3 principals, which is something we play a bunch of.  Long arms, ball skills, and a physical player, he has the ability to do well if given the chance.

ROUND 7, PICK 254

PADDY FISHER, ILB, NORTHWESTERN

Not too much special here other than special teams.  A limited run stuffing thumper of a LBer he's nothing more than a two-down Vince Williams heir apparent if he can make the team.  The real upside here is he's a sure tackler with a great wrap up technique who will make a ton of plays sifting through the traffic in the box but not much else.  What more can you expect from a 7th round pick.

 

SO, POST DRAFT HAUL INCLUDING PLAYERS VIA TRADE, AS WELL AS WHAT'S GOING OUT:

IN: Jayson Oweh, Travis Etienne, Zach Ertz, Kendrick Green, Kary Vincent Jr, Josh Palmer, D'Ante Smith, Larry Roundtree, James Smith, Antonio Phillips, Paddy Fisher

OUT: 2022 2nd, 2022 4th, James Washington

POST DRAFT DEPTH CHART:

Guide: Italicized - Starter, Underlined - Won't get a hat, Strikethrough - Cut

QB - Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph, Josh Dobbs, Dwayne Haskins

Positional outlook - Not great as Ben is 39, everyone else is a FA at the end of the year.  If Ben can be early season Ben from 2020 it might work.

RB - Travis Etienne, Larry Roundtree, Anthony McFarland, Benny Snell, Jaylen Samuels, Kalen Ballage

Positional outlook- Bright.  Very young, very versatile, mostly fast too.  I'm intrigued at running smash/jet sweep/reverse combos with Claypool as the reverse, Etienne as the sweep, and Roundtree as the smash.  So hard to defend when you can run power of finesse out of one package.

FB - Derek Watt

Positional outlook - ST's 

WR - Diontae Johnson, Juju Smith-Schuester, Chase Claypool, Josh Palmer, Ray-Ray McCloud, Mathew Sexton, Anthony Johnson

Positional outlook - Mixed bag.  Johnson has his issues.  Juju is a FA at the end of the year.  Claypool is poised for a breakout.  Palmer offers a future path to move on from Juju after the season.  McCloud gives us, believe it or not, one of the better return guys despite his lack of actual production.

TE - Eric Ebron, Zach Ertz, Zach Gentry, Kevin Radar

Positional outlook - This is clearly a 1 year fix with Ebron and Ertz.  Somewhat a ying-yang relationship going on between the two, it at least allows us to put off TE for another year.

LT - Zach Banner, Joe Heag, D'Ante Smith

LG - Kevin Dotson, Kendrick Green, Brandon Walton

OC - BJ Finney, JC Hassenauer, Kendrick Green

RG - David DeCastro, Kendrick Green, Brandon Walton

RT - Chukwuma Okorafor, Joe Heag, D'Ante Smith

Positional outlook for the OL as a hole.  The interior of the OL is highly flexible with all three OC guys having shown the ability to play all 3 interior OL spots, which makes up for the lack of actual OG depth.  I offer the following though for the OT lack of depth - Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz.  Yes I know both are coming off injuries.  But if you can, take the shot on one of them at a discount rate after the draft.  Monitor how they recover, and it could help you out as they come back.

DT - Cam Heyward, Chris Wormley, Isaiah Buggs

Positional outlook - Cam or bust pretty much.  Wormley and Buggs can give you something but if Cam goes down it ain't pretty.

NT - Tyson Alualu, Henry Mondeaux, Carlos Davis

Positional outlook - Thank god Alualu had a change of heart.  NT sucks in this draft, and his IDL flexibility is key.

DE - Stehone Tuitt, Isaiah Buggs, Chris Wormley

Positional outlook - Yes it's the inverse of Cam's backups, but I think Buggs is better suited for the IDE postion that Tuitt plays.

OLB - TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, Jayson Oweh, Cassius Marsh, Christian Kuntz

Positional outlook - That's quietly a good group.  Some freak athletes, some sound guys.  We'll be saying "Dupree who?" when he has 2 sacks mid year and Oweh has 5 with Highsmith having 5.  I'd expect Oweh to come in with 3rd and longs or play against more mobile QB's due to his closing speed advantage over Hightower.  I'd also expect a UDFA to be the 5th guy that gets a hat.

ILB - Devin Bush, Robert Spillane, Vince Williams, Marcus Allen, Paddy Fisher, Tegray Scales, Ulysees Gilbert

Positional outlook - SO much better with Bush back in the fold.  I think we will see Williams and Spillane share the starters duty based on matchup, as Spillane has a bit more speed than Williams.  The one downside here is we didn't really give a future answer next to Bush.

CB - Joe Haden, Cam Sutton, Kary Vincent Jr, James Pierre, Antonio Phillips

Positional outlook - Unexpectedly bright!  Despite Haden and Sutton possibly being around only for a year more, Vincent looks to be a good NCB with some outside skills, and Pierre and Phillips could be the future at the outside marks.  It's a group that's got some ball skills and can create some turnovers.

SS - Terrell Edmunds, Miles Killerew

Positional outlook - I'm higher here than others, but I get the hesitation. I think we are looking at the spot of most improvement in 2021.

FS - Minkah Fitzpatrick, Antoine Brooks

Positional outlook - Minkah better not go down, but Phillips or Vincent can play here in a pinch 

P - James Smith, Jordan Berry, Corliss Waitman

Positional outlook - It's punter...really?

K - Chris Boswell

Positional outlook - It's kicker....really?

 

So there you have it - War's 2021 mock draft.  What do you think of the outcome?  Who would you rather see in some spots?  Do you like the trades?

[jebrick]

I like it but I always think the Steelers should make moves for players they want.  Good value in the 1st 2 picks

[kurgan]

Man.. Oweh is out of right field for sure!!!  Production sucks but I could see this being a deep sleeper.

Not a Palmer fan at all, but he does the jump ball thing real well.

Very interesting direction.  You are clearly more sold on Finney than I am, personally.

[MOSteelers56]

I like the draft. I like Green and Vincent a lot. I don’t love Finney as our starting center, but it’s likely so I need to come to terms with that. I don’t know much about Oweh. 

[warfelg]

5 hours ago, jebrick said:

I like it but I always think the Steelers should make moves for players they want.  Good value in the 1st 2 picks

I was really thinking this morning about how the pick, while seemingly will easily be a RB, can be really anything and it's about value.

1 hour ago, kurgan said:

Man.. Oweh is out of right field for sure!!!  Production sucks but I could see this being a deep sleeper.

Not a Palmer fan at all, but he does the jump ball thing real well.

Very interesting direction.  You are clearly more sold on Finney than I am, personally.

His production isn't indicative of his tape.  He was about it on the front at PSU and easily doubled often.

Palmer gives me the same fizz that Juju did his draft year.  There's just something there.

Not really sold on Finney, but rather I feel that Tombert is comfortable with the penciled in line more than anything and see the skill guys as a bigger issue.

56 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I like the draft. I like Green and Vincent a lot. I don’t love Finney as our starting center, but it’s likely so I need to come to terms with that. I don’t know much about Oweh. 

I'd also give an outside shot for Green to win the starting C job in camp, but his lack of reps is why I put Finney there, for now.  This draft is really deep in spot we needs.

Easiest picture I can give you on Oweh - Picture if we drafted Bud in the start of his 3rd year with us.  Meaning he's an athletic freak who has to moves necessary, just needs to learn how to use them better on the field of play.

[Dcash4]

The feeling for me is growing that both top backs will be gone by the time 24 rolls around, so looking past RB makes sense to me this week. 

Im not sure how I feel about it Oweh. IMO, your drafting an all-pro or a guy in 5 years that makes you go “oh I forgot we drafted him”. Good news is, I cannot think of a better place to develop than with us with Dunbar and Butler, next to TJ Watt and Cam Heyward/Stephon Tuitt. 

I honestly love the chaos we could create. I’m not excited about drafting an OLB, but the upside is insane. Maybe even wakes up a dream scenario I have had where TJ actually moves into the middle next to Bush where I think he would be a nightmare. 

Outside of Not believing TE makes it to the second round it’s a good draft. Not crazy about the trade for Ertz (I think he might be toast), but that first round picks gonna grow on my this week

[warfelg]

24 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

The feeling for me is growing that both top backs will be gone by the time 24 rolls around, so looking past RB makes sense to me this week. 

I know it's obvious from my mock I don't see that but the teams they claim will take one in front of us don't really need one early.

Quote

Im not sure how I feel about it Oweh. IMO, your drafting an all-pro or a guy in 5 years that makes you go “oh I forgot we drafted him”. Good news is, I cannot think of a better place to develop than with us with Dunbar and Butler, next to TJ Watt and Cam Heyward/Stephon Tuitt. 

I honestly love the chaos we could create. I’m not excited about drafting an OLB, but the upside is insane. Maybe even wakes up a dream scenario I have had where TJ actually moves into the middle next to Bush where I think he would be a nightmare. 

Yea, he's a good developmental in that he has the tools and the skills, its needs refining and he needs to be around guys to help free him up a touch.  And TJ moving inside would be a waste.  Sorry.

Quote

Outside of Not believing TE makes it to the second round it’s a good draft. Not crazy about the trade for Ertz (I think he might be toast), but that first round picks gonna grow on my this week

There's TE's that could be had later, but I was thinking with Ebron being a terribad blocker, and not wanting to wait for a rookie to develop, Ertz would be a better pickup.  He's only 30, has a single year left, and IIRC in a trade would only cost $4.95mil and we have $11mil in space.

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

There's TE's that could be had later, but I was thinking with Ebron being a terribad blocker, and not wanting to wait for a rookie to develop, Ertz would be a better pickup.  He's only 30, has a single year left, and IIRC in a trade would only cost $4.95mil and we have $11mil in space.

It’s a good thought process, I’m just not sold on Ertz personally, though I’d be hopeful. He has had some form of injury in like 5 of the last 6 years and didn’t seem right last year (mix of covid, eagles, and injuries...but still). I’m just not sure I’d wanna pay $5M for something that’s not quite Zach Ertz when I could probably pay $1M with Jesse James doing fairly the same thing. I’d save $4M and the James Washington asset for other moves. 

I was kinda hoping they would cut Ertz and we could lower that cost. It’s worth a flyer, but I’m not sure I’d spend assets in cash and player to try it. 
 

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

And TJ moving inside would be a waste.  Sorry.

I don’t think it would be a waste, but it would be different. This is a topic for another day, but just to touch on it: I don’t want to turn him into an upgraded Vince Williams...I want to weaponize him as a Troy of the front 7. I think he is a superb football player with great instincts and an innate ability to find the ball. He can do more damage in early downs in the middle of the field creating chaos (especially against run heavy teams in the division) and still be able to rush the passer from anywhere with how much we like to rush 5. No team could gameplan for him (which is also something I hope they start doing by flipping our rushers to our advantage - something they couldn’t do with Dupree). 

But it would take two edge guys to do it...if we god Highsmith and Oweh able to handle edge...it’s a dream though..

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

I know it's obvious from my mock I don't see that but the teams they claim will take one in front of us don't really need one early.

I’ve seen Miami mocked with Najee enough for me to think that’s a real possibility. I’ve seen arizona too, but that one makes less sense, especially now with Conner signing. The Jets could absolutely use a play maker like Etienne with that second 1st to help a young QB and I think the Bills could be a wildcard with a pretty complete team to jump up a few spaces for a top back to compliment their team (20th in rushing and their most dangerous weapon is their soon to be $40m QB). 

Between Miami at 18 and 36, the Jets at 23 and 34, and the Bills needing rushing help...I have a hard time seeing Etienne getting to 37. Teams mess around on RB because they only have 1 impact pick in the top 45 or so...the Dolphins and the Jets do not have that problem. 

Im actually to the point now where I think the Steelers are going to be so dead set on a Running back that they will trade UP to get one...in which case I’ll need a new TV and a beer run. 

[warfelg]

9 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

It’s a good thought process, I’m just not sold on Ertz personally, though I’d be hopeful. He has had some form of injury in like 5 of the last 6 years and didn’t seem right last year (mix of covid, eagles, and injuries...but still). I’m just not sure I’d wanna pay $5M for something that’s not quite Zach Ertz when I could probably pay $1M with Jesse James doing fairly the same thing. I’d save $4M and the James Washington asset for other moves. I was kinda hoping they would cut Ertz and we could lower that cost. It’s worth a flyer, but I’m not sure I’d spend assets in cash and player to try it. 

If they haven't made the move to bring in James by now it isn't happening.  Washington as an asset isn't going to bring much.  And I don't put much stock in last years Eagles.  That team was 2000's/2010's Browns level of dysfunctional.

Quote

I don’t think it would be a waste, but it would be different. This is a topic for another day, but just to touch on it: I don’t want to turn him into an upgraded Vince Williams...I want to weaponize him as a Troy of the front 7. I think he is a superb football player with great instincts and an innate ability to find the ball. He can do more damage in early downs in the middle of the field creating chaos (especially against run heavy teams in the division) and still be able to rush the passer from anywhere with how much we like to rush 5. No team could gameplan for him (which is also something I hope they start doing by flipping our rushers to our advantage - something they couldn’t do with Dupree). 

But it would take two edge guys to do it...if we god Highsmith and Oweh able to handle edge...it’s a dream though..

He creates more havoc by being on the edge due to slide protections, chips, and backs staying in to block.  Taking him off the LOS takes away that need.  Half the reason Hilton got as many free run sacks as he did was actually due to him blitzing off the opposite side that Watt was dropping from.

Besides.  Moving the best edge rusher in the NFL off the edge? Not worth the extra plays you think it would create.

Quote

I’ve seen Miami mocked with Najee enough for me to think that’s a real possibility. I’ve seen arizona too, but that one makes less sense, especially now with Conner signing. The Jets could absolutely use a play maker like Etienne with that second 1st to help a young QB and I think the Bills could be a wildcard with a pretty complete team to jump up a few spaces for a top back to compliment their team (20th in rushing and their most dangerous weapon is their soon to be $40m QB). 

Between Miami at 18 and 36, the Jets at 23 and 34, and the Bills needing rushing help...I have a hard time seeing Etienne getting to 37. Teams mess around on RB because they only have 1 impact pick in the top 45 or so...the Dolphins and the Jets do not have that problem. 

Im actually to the point now where I think the Steelers are going to be so dead set on a Running back that they will trade UP to get one...in which case I’ll need a new TV and a beer run. 

Bills - DL is a complete mess.  OL is really good.  They need a back not a top back.

Jets - Defensive HC, offensive line issues, still have WR depth issues, defense is barren.

Miami - No edge rush, 1 good WR, 1 good OL player.

I think for the Jets and Dolphins, taking a RB is merely a smoke screen to try to get the Steelers or Bills to move.  Personally I have the Bills moving down and getting a pass rusher in the early 2nd, then taking Michael Carter later in the 2nd.  I got the Jets taking a later round RB and the Dolphins taking a later one as well.

Like don't forget, Miami's line is: Austin Jackson (OK), Ereck Flowers (Yikes), Matt Skura (good), Soloman Kindley (Yikes), Robert Hunt (Yikes).  They got Myles Gaskins who turned out to be decent when they could get him even a crack of a running lane last year.

Take a look at the Jets line and after Bechton there isn't a single NFL starting OL player on there.  Their interior OL even with the signings were mostly top 20 in sacks allowed or penalties.  And you think they'll puts a rookie QB AND RB from the first round behind that?  Not to mention.....here's their starting secondary: Blessuan Austin, Ashtyn Davis, Marcus Maye, Bryce Hall.  If I were Zach Wilson and they took a RB with the second or third pick with a defense that can't stop molasses from moving and an OL with a worse grade than a recovering alcoholic's BAC....man I would refuse to suit up.

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

If they haven't made the move to bring in James by now it isn't happening.  Washington as an asset isn't going to bring much.  And I don't put much stock in last years Eagles.  That team was 2000's/2010's Browns level of dysfunctional.

I said the same about James last week, but I'm just making comparison. I would hope you're right about the bold, but paying a 2nd round pick, James Washington, and $5M for potentially not zach ertz is too rich for my blood. 

Also, trading any future top 3 round pick that doesn't net us a QB is completely off the table for me. Im especially not doing it for a running back and a 30 year old TE. Moving into the unknown of QB's we need that asset a hell of a lot more than we do the two worst positions on offense by value and by availability. 

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

Bills - DL is a complete mess.  OL is really good.  They need a back not a top back.

Jets - Defensive HC, offensive line issues, still have WR depth issues, defense is barren.

Miami - No edge rush, 1 good WR, 1 good OL player.

I think for the Jets and Dolphins, taking a RB is merely a smoke screen to try to get the Steelers or Bills to move.  Personally I have the Bills moving down and getting a pass rusher in the early 2nd, then taking Michael Carter later in the 2nd.  I got the Jets taking a later round RB and the Dolphins taking a later one as well.

Like don't forget, Miami's line is: Austin Jackson (OK), Ereck Flowers (Yikes), Matt Skura (good), Soloman Kindley (Yikes), Robert Hunt (Yikes).  They got Myles Gaskins who turned out to be decent when they could get him even a crack of a running lane last year.

Take a look at the Jets line and after Bechton there isn't a single NFL starting OL player on there.  Their interior OL even with the signings were mostly top 20 in sacks allowed or penalties.  And you think they'll puts a rookie QB AND RB from the first round behind that?  Not to mention.....here's their starting secondary: Blessuan Austin, Ashtyn Davis, Marcus Maye, Bryce Hall.  If I were Zach Wilson and they took a RB with the second or third pick with a defense that can't stop molasses from moving and an OL with a worse grade than a recovering alcoholic's BAC....man I would refuse to suit up.

The Dolphins have 5 picks in the top 81, 4 of which come in the top 50. 

The Jets have 4 Picks in the top 86, 3 of which come in the top 34. 

The draft is top heavy with offensive skill guys, deep with OT, and middle rounds are good for IOL (something you agree with). The Dolphins (who were heavily interested in Aaron Jones) could easily draft Harris at 18 and still net a Top Defender (who, at 36 in a heavy offensive first round with 5 QB's could be a first round player) and offensive line help before we even get out of the second round. 

The Jets are much of the same. Take Wilson at 2, the top OT/Edge/CB at 23 and you can take a dynamic back at 34 and you still have 2 more top 100 picks to go. 

It's not about individual holes for them, it's about having the draft capital to not be picky. The Bills are the ones who would have to think long and hard. If a RB made it to 30, do they really want to wait to 61 to get their next pick? Though, you can also ask that in reverse. If the Jets pass at 23 they wait 11 more picks where one of the top 3 backs will still be. 

Long story short, the Jets and Dolphins have way more than enough capital to take the best players available instead of pigeonholing positions. They even have enough future capital I could see the Jets flipping 34 to come back into he first round for any of the remaining RB's just to have the 5th year option. I don't expect Harris or Etienne, despite RB value concerns, to make it past 4 Jets and Dolphins picks to make it to 37 in the second round. 

(seriously, the Jets draft stock is stupid over the next 2 years. 2021: Two 1's, two 3rd's, two 5th's, 2 6th's 2022: two 1st's, two 2nd's, 2 5th's, and 3 6th's)

[warfelg]

1 minute ago, Dcash4 said:

I said the same about James last week, but I'm just making comparison. I would hope you're right about the bold, but paying a 2nd round pick, James Washington, and $5M for potentially not zach ertz is too rich for my blood. 

Also, trading any future top 3 round pick that doesn't net us a QB is completely off the table for me. Im especially not doing it for a running back and a 30 year old TE. Moving into the unknown of QB's we need that asset a hell of a lot more than we do the two worst positions on offense by value and by availability. 

The Dolphins have 5 picks in the top 81, 4 of which come in the top 50. 

The Jets have 4 Picks in the top 86, 3 of which come in the top 34. 

The draft is top heavy with offensive skill guys, deep with OT, and middle rounds are good for IOL (something you agree with). The Dolphins (who were heavily interested in Aaron Jones) could easily draft Harris at 18 and still net a Top Defender (who, at 36 in a heavy offensive first round with 5 QB's could be a first round player) and offensive line help before we even get out of the second round. 

The Jets are much of the same. Take Wilson at 2, the top OT/Edge/CB at 23 and you can take a dynamic back at 34 and you still have 2 more top 100 picks to go. 

It's not about individual holes for them, it's about having the draft capital to not be picky. The Bills are the ones who would have to think long and hard. If a RB made it to 30, do they really want to wait to 61 to get their next pick? Though, you can also ask that in reverse. If the Jets pass at 23 they wait 11 more picks where one of the top 3 backs will still be. 

Long story short, the Jets and Dolphins have way more than enough capital to take the best players available instead of pigeonholing positions. They even have enough future capital I could see the Jets flipping 34 to come back into he first round for any of the remaining RB's just to have the 5th year option. I don't expect Harris or Etienne, despite RB value concerns, to make it past 4 Jets and Dolphins picks to make it to 37 in the second round. 

(seriously, the Jets draft stock is stupid over the next 2 years. 2021: Two 1's, two 3rd's, two 5th's, 2 6th's 2022: two 1st's, two 2nd's, 2 5th's, and 3 6th's)

It's basically a 5th and Washington for Ertz.

As for the Miami/NYJ thing....agree to disagree there.

[Dcash4]

53 minutes ago, warfelg said:

It's basically a 5th and Washington for Ertz.

And that part individually is okay, but its still selling a future second for a running back. That might be an enticing piece of a chip to move up for a QB (thinking our Bush trade from 20 to 10). Could also be part of a package for a Derek Carr or the like. 

Without knowing our QB situation I think its vital we maintain all our top assets. If I had any faith in Haskins or Rudolph it would be different. As I mentioned, personally, I am out on any trade of a future top 3 pick that isn't a QB. 

[Steeler Hitman]

On 4/25/2021 at 12:34 PM, warfelg said:

No simulator used.  Compiling pick availability by using mocks from PFF, CBSSports, NFL.com, SB Nation (combining their average draft position), and ESPN.  

Pretty Good stuff as always Warfelg. I don't agree with all the picks, but I still respect your knowledge and insight.

On 4/25/2021 at 12:34 PM, warfelg said:

ROUND 1 PICK 24:

CBS has us going Teven Jenkins, with Jaelen Phillips going just ahead, Trevon Moehrig just after, and Jayson Oweh, Zaven Collins, Dickerson, Samuel Jr, Leatherwood still available (Harris is long gone in this mock).  NFL.com has us going Creed Humphrey, with Najee Harris in front of us, Alijah Vera-Tucker behind, with Owusu-Koramoah, Oweh, Leatherwood, Rousseau still on the board.  PFF has us going Najee Harris, with Newsome II in front and Oweh behind, with Collins, Cosmi, Leatherwood still on the board.

Now a couple of things to unpack:  Most the guys I've listed as "still available" are guys we have met or scouted heavily.  There's rumors out there that they are looking more for a developmental OT rather than a plug and play OT, so that's pushing that pick further back in the draft.  It seems as though the positions they are really going for and doing research in heavily is RB, DB, EDGE.

So with our first overall pick, in round 1 pick 24, I have us swerving hard off the expected route -

JAYSON OWEH, EDGE, PENN STATE - - To me, this screams of Edmunds 2.0. This is a great athlete who has had very little productivity. Some has been because of scheme at PSU and you still have to question a guy that talented not completely dominating. But to your point about his talent, some of the same things were said about Miles Garrett and top level competition and he has blown those concerns away. I don't hate the pick, but don't like the draft value. But if JOK is on the board, I am going with the safer pick from productivity, ceiling and pure talent. JOK is much higher on my board than Oweh. 

 

ROUND 2 PICK 37:

No, you aren't reading that wrong.  We're moving up.

Pittsburgh Steelers acquire pick 37, 189, and TE Zach Ertz from the Philadelphia Eagles for 55, 140, 2022 2nd, and James Washington.

Okay, got that?  It's a lot isn't it?  Value wise in terms of pick value, Philadelphia gives up 544.2 and Pittsburgh gives up 586 (2022 2nd valued at 200) so it's a little overpay on the pick side, with the player side evening that out.  I know Ertz isn't a cheap option, but he's a good blocker and reliable pass catcher if unspectacular.  I rather have a 2nd TE in the late years Heath mold than another rookie to have to develop.  He's a very Colbert pickup of final year of the contract who can contribute.

Now at pick 37 - PFF has guys like Stokes, Wyatt Davis, Radunz, Browning, Etienne available.  NFL.com has guys like Javonte Williams, Samuel Jr., Marshall Jr, and Dickerson available.

So with our second overall pick, round 2, pick 37, I have the Steelers going a little more expected position and taking:

TRAVIS ETIENNE, RB, CLEMSON - - No argument here, although I may think long and hard about Radnuz for need. Getting the TE makes this a bouns and sets the Steelers with two very good TE's who can stretch the field. 

 

ROUND 3 PICK 99:

KENDRICK GREEN, IOL, ILLINOIS - -Not going to argue the player as he fits the need. Not a sexypick, but a good one and checks the boxes.

 

ROUND 4 PICK 115:

KARY VINCENT JR, CB, LSU - - Hard to see them pass Stone here at LT. He is the Steelers type of tall and long LT. I think he has upside and tremendous value as well. CB is a need as well, but I would have went LT myself. 

 

ROUND 4 PICK 128:

With their fifth overall pick, round 4, pick 128, the Pittsburgh Steelers turn in the card for -

JOSH PALMER, WR, TENNESSEE - - Checks the box after the need at WR was added. I have OT as a higher need. No argument if CB and WR are the better values.

ROUND 5 PICK 179:

D'ANTE SMITH, OT, EAST CAROLINA - - Definitely a sleeper. Very good value here. I am not so sure that I would have gambled with selecting a OL this far. I like the player.

 

ROUND 6 PICK 189:

That said, with their seventh pick, round 6, pick 189, the Steelers select:

LARRY ROUNTREE III, RB, MISSOURI - - I would not double dip with RB (maybe Edge, CB or OL). I would look free safety as well I am looking at one of those other needs here probably.

ROUND 6 PICK 216: 

JAMES SMITH, P, CINCINATTI - - Maybe a round too early, but any punter on the roster to compete I am happy with.  Big like my guy, just not as rolly- polly so to speak. 

 

ROUND 7, PICK 245

ANTONIO PHILLIPS, CB, BALL STATE - - There's my second CB.

ROUND 7, PICK 254

PADDY FISHER, ILB, NORTHWESTERN - - Smart heady payer and solid description of next level thumper type. 

 

SO, POST DRAFT HAUL INCLUDING PLAYERS VIA TRADE, AS WELL AS WHAT'S GOING OUT:

IN: Jayson Oweh, Travis Etienne, Zach Ertz, Kendrick Green, Kary Vincent Jr, Josh Palmer, D'Ante Smith, Larry Roundtree, James Smith, Antonio Phillips, Paddy Fisher

OUT: 2022 2nd, 2022 4th, James Washington - - I hate losing JW, but getting another very good TE makes up for it. 

POST DRAFT DEPTH CHART:

Guide: Italicized - Starter, Underlined - Won't get a hat, Strikethrough - Cut

QB - Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph, Josh Dobbs, Dwayne Haskins (He will be on the PS at worst, but I actually think they will put Dobbs on PS). 

Positional outlook - Not great as Ben is 39, everyone else is a FA at the end of the year.  If Ben can be early season Ben from 2020 it might work.

RB - Travis Etienne, Larry Roundtree, Anthony McFarland, Benny Snell, Jaylen Samuels, Kalen Ballage ( I think Ballage makes it and Samuels may be odd man out)

Positional outlook- Bright.  Very young, very versatile, mostly fast too.  I'm intrigued at running smash/jet sweep/reverse combos with Claypool as the reverse, Etienne as the sweep, and Roundtree as the smash.  So hard to defend when you can run power of finesse out of one package.

FB - Derek Watt

Positional outlook - ST's 

WR - Diontae Johnson, Juju Smith-Schuester, Chase Claypool, Josh Palmer, Ray-Ray McCloud, Mathew Sexton, Anthony Johnson - - I think Ray Ray has a much more expanded role in the offense in 2021. 

Positional outlook - Mixed bag.  Johnson has his issues.  Juju is a FA at the end of the year.  Claypool is poised for a breakout.  Palmer offers a future path to move on from Juju after the season.  McCloud gives us, believe it or not, one of the better return guys despite his lack of actual production.

TE - Eric Ebron, Zach Ertz, Zach Gentry, Kevin Radar - - Not sure they keep four, but the one-two punch is pretty darn good.

Positional outlook - This is clearly a 1 year fix with Ebron and Ertz.  Somewhat a ying-yang relationship going on between the two, it at least allows us to put off TE for another year.

LT - Zach Banner, Joe Heag, D'Ante Smith

LG - Kevin Dotson, Kendrick Green, Brandon Walton

OC - BJ Finney, JC Hassenauer, Kendrick Green

RG - David DeCastro, Kendrick Green, Brandon Walton

RT - Chukwuma Okorafor, Joe Heag, D'Ante Smith

Positional outlook for the OL as a hole.  The interior of the OL is highly flexible with all three OC guys having shown the ability to play all 3 interior OL spots, which makes up for the lack of actual OG depth.  I offer the following though for the OT lack of depth - Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz.  Yes I know both are coming off injuries.  But if you can, take the shot on one of them at a discount rate after the draft.  Monitor how they recover, and it could help you out as they come back. - - I would rather see Chuks at LT. I think Banner is a mauler and would thrive at RT. (Just my opinion).

DT - Cam Heyward, Chris Wormley, Isaiah Buggs

Positional outlook - Cam or bust pretty much.  Wormley and Buggs can give you something but if Cam goes down it ain't pretty.

NT - Tyson Alualu, Henry Mondeaux, Carlos Davis - - Wouldn't mind another true NG here, but it appears that those days may be gone from Blitzburgh.

Positional outlook - Thank god Alualu had a change of heart.  NT sucks in this draft, and his IDL flexibility is key.

DE - Stehone Tuitt, Isaiah Buggs, Chris Wormley

Positional outlook - Yes it's the inverse of Cam's backups, but I think Buggs is better suited for the IDE postion that Tuitt plays.

OLB - TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, Jayson Oweh, Cassius Marsh, Christian Kuntz

Positional outlook - That's quietly a good group.  Some freak athletes, some sound guys.  We'll be saying "Dupree who?" when he has 2 sacks mid year and Oweh has 5 with Highsmith having 5.  I'd expect Oweh to come in with 3rd and longs or play against more mobile QB's due to his closing speed advantage over Hightower.  I'd also expect a UDFA to be the 5th guy that gets a hat.

ILB - Devin Bush, Robert Spillane, Vince Williams, Marcus Allen, Paddy Fisher, Tegray Scales, Ulysees Gilbert

Positional outlook - SO much better with Bush back in the fold.  I think we will see Williams and Spillane share the starters duty based on matchup, as Spillane has a bit more speed than Williams.  The one downside here is we didn't really give a future answer next to Bush.

CB - Joe Haden, Cam Sutton, Kary Vincent Jr, James Pierre, Antonio Phillips

Positional outlook - Unexpectedly bright!  Despite Haden and Sutton possibly being around only for a year more, Vincent looks to be a good NCB with some outside skills, and Pierre and Phillips could be the future at the outside marks.  It's a group that's got some ball skills and can create some turnovers.

SS - Terrell Edmunds, Miles Killerew

Positional outlook - I'm higher here than others, but I get the hesitation. I think we are looking at the spot of most improvement in 2021.

FS - Minkah Fitzpatrick, Antoine Brooks

Positional outlook - Minkah better not go down, but Phillips or Vincent can play here in a pinch  - - Keep praying that Minkah stays healthy. They still need a true Centerfielder to back-up Minkah. 🙏

P - James Smith, Jordan Berry, Corliss Waitman - - Oh happy day!!!!🙏

Positional outlook - It's punter...really?

K - Chris Boswell

Positional outlook - It's kicker....really?

 

So there you have it - War's 2021 mock draft.  What do you think of the outcome?  Who would you rather see in some spots?  Do you like the trades?

I would actually love to see the Steelers trade down and add picks depending on the scenarios. I liked your trades. These were not the typical trade scenarios. I loved adding Ertz, but somewhat hated losing Washington. Trade off there though. Overall solid draft that I couldn't argue with too much outside of double dipping at RB after they signed Billage. CB may even be higher due to Justin Lane's status (off field and what they are/were realistically expecting on the field).

[43M]

Sorry, but this is terrible.

Oweh is the LB equivalent of Christian Hackenberg and made the same mistake as Aaron Maybin.   He is not ready for the NFL....at all.    He was laughably inconsistent and unproductive.    Taking him in the first would be on par with drafting Artie Burns in the first.

Am I saying he can't succeed in the NFL?   Not at all....but he is a mid round project player.   3rd round is the absolute earliest Id draft him.

[jebrick]

36 minutes ago, 43M said:

Sorry, but this is terrible.

Oweh is the LB equivalent of Christian Hackenberg and made the same mistake as Aaron Maybin.   He is not ready for the NFL....at all.    He was laughably inconsistent and unproductive.    Taking him in the first would be on par with drafting Artie Burns in the first.

Am I saying he can't succeed in the NFL?   Not at all....but he is a mid round project player.   3rd round is the absolute earliest Id draft him.

Like drafting Bud Dupree or Ryan Shazier?  Tomlin loves his SPARQ athletes

Edited April 29, 2021 by jebrick