IS Alvin Kamara on HOF pace?

[tyler735]

1 hour ago, lancerman said:

Because the HOF is pretty traditional and basis a lot of their voting on how they treated prior candidates and the fact that as a rusher and a receiver Kamara simply does not have the numbers others who got in did. 
 

Even modern hybrid running backs like Faulk and Tomlinson wildly out produce him. If you want a modern hybrid guy, Leveon Bell has had better rushing seasons and comparable receiving seasons with 2 First Team All Pros. He’s too weak in both categories and his case relies on combining them in a way the Hall doesn’t. He also have a First Team All Pro which is a pretty big metric for the Hall. 
 

He’s just not going to have the metrics or accolades other guys that have gotten in have to get in. 

Touchdowns are a big part of the equation. At age 30 at this current pace, Kamara would be at about 120+ touchdowns. Not to mention he could still hang around potentially a few more seasons to pad the stats a bit more after age 30. As mentioned before, everyone that has had 120+ touchdowns in their career has made the Hall of Fame. Kamara at his current pace looks to be easily hitting that...and then some. He also wouldn't be a slouch in the yards from scrimmage category with about 13,000 at age 30.

He's made the Pro Bowl every season and has put up 2 All Pro seasons. Have a feeling 8+ Pro Bowls and 4+ All Pro seasons at this current pace by age 30 would be just fine for a Hall of Fame pace.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

Marshall Faulk's first four years YRS/TDs: 5897/41

Alvin Kamara's first four years YRS/TDs: 6164/58

Pretty impressive. And that is with each playing in almost the same amount of games, 61 for Faulk, and 60 for Kamara. I know Kamara doesn't have a 1K rushing season or first team All Pro yet, but regardless that level of production in Kamara's first four years is astonishing. 

[lancerman]

5 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Marshall Faulk's first four years YRS/TDs: 5897/41

Alvin Kamara's first four years YRS/TDs: 6164/58

Pretty impressive. And that is with each playing in almost the same amount of games, 61 for Faulk, and 60 for Kamara. I know Kamara doesn't have a 1K rushing season or first team All Pro yet, but regardless that level of production in Kamara's first four years is astonishing. 

Faulk didn’t get in off his first 4 years. He got in off the next 3 when he had 3 consecutive OPOY and an MVP. 
 
That 3 year stretch he had 6765 yards and 59 TD’s which I don’t need to explain 3 years vs 4 years where he flatly out produces and blows both his and Kimara’s sample sizes out of the water with arguably the greatest 3 season stretch of games ever. 
 

Now Kamara could go on an insane production run, but we shouldn’t take Faulk and use his first 4 years as a comp as if it tells the story when he did something insane and unlikely literally in his next 3 years that led to 3 OPOY’s, an MVP, and unreal  production that basically made him a lock for the HOF. If Faulk had the same 4 years in 1999-2002 as he did in his first 4 years then he is having a totally different HOF discussion. 
 

Also it’s worth noting even that isn’t telling the full story. In 1996 Faulk was nursing an injury all year and it led to his worst year in the league (minus his final season). So even that 4 game sample size relies on Faulk having a total outlier down year to bring it down  to bring him down to make it comparable. 

Faulk was overall better when healthy in that initial run and then went into another stratosphere the next year when he left for the Rams and it’s very unreasonable to project out that any RB is going to have a trajectory like that. 

[lancerman]

9 hours ago, tyler735 said:

Touchdowns are a big part of the equation. At age 30 at this current pace, Kamara would be at about 120+ touchdowns. Not to mention he could still hang around potentially a few more seasons to pad the stats a bit more after age 30. As mentioned before, everyone that has had 120+ touchdowns in their career has made the Hall of Fame. Kamara at his current pace looks to be easily hitting that...and then some. He also wouldn't be a slouch in the yards from scrimmage category with about 13,000 at age 30.

He's made the Pro Bowl every season and has put up 2 All Pro seasons. Have a feeling 8+ Pro Bowls and 4+ All Pro seasons at this current pace by age 30 would be just fine for a Hall of Fame pace.

Touchdowns are a big part, but if we are looking historically and literally every other RB in the SB era minus two guys that had their two final years in 66 and 67 all broke 1k yards rushing and all but one of them did that multiple times and the fact that Kamara has no First Team All Pros which are a huge indicator for RB’s, it all leads to a doubtful that he’s getting in. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

4 hours ago, lancerman said:

Faulk didn’t get in off his first 4 years. He got in off the next 3 when he had 3 consecutive OPOY and an MVP. 
 
That 3 year stretch he had 6765 yards and 59 TD’s which I don’t need to explain 3 years vs 4 years where he flatly out produces and blows both his and Kimara’s sample sizes out of the water with arguably the greatest 3 season stretch of games ever. 
 

Now Kamara could go on an insane production run, but we shouldn’t take Faulk and use his first 4 years as a comp as if it tells the story when he did something insane and unlikely literally in his next 3 years that led to 3 OPOY’s, an MVP, and unreal  production that basically made him a lock for the HOF. If Faulk had the same 4 years in 1999-2002 as he did in his first 4 years then he is having a totally different HOF discussion. 
 

Also it’s worth noting even that isn’t telling the full story. In 1996 Faulk was nursing an injury all year and it led to his worst year in the league (minus his final season). So even that 4 game sample size relies on Faulk having a total outlier down year to bring it down  to bring him down to make it comparable. 

Faulk was overall better when healthy in that initial run and then went into another stratosphere the next year when he left for the Rams and it’s very unreasonable to project out that any RB is going to have a trajectory like that. 

You're right, Faulk didn't have his best career stretch at the start of his career. Kamara might not have the best career stretch in his career yet either, but all we have so far are his first four seasons which whether you want to compare it to Faulk or someone else are still HOF pace worthy. And they are probably or par or better than a couple of other HOF backs best 4 year stretch.

Faulk got hurt in 1996, but that's not Kamara's fault for staying healthy himself. And they both played in the same amount of games in that span. If he was healthy enough to play, he's eligible enough to be judged in my book. You can use the "oh but..." in regards to any player and label them as a victim of circumstance. Everyone in the world would have an excuse then for lackluster production. "Oh I was hurt, oh I didn't have a good QB, oh my offensive line, oh, oh, oh, oh cry me a river"  Since when do the HOF voters care about contextualization anyway? Seems more often than not the process just comes down to raw numbers regardless how the numbers were achieved. That and/or if a career has some bedtime story angle to it. 

Edited August 25, 2021 by TecmoSuperJoe

[TecmoSuperJoe]

The funny thing about the All Pro angle is that Frank Gore will probably be the first runner I can think of to be enshrined without a 1st Team All Pro to his name. We've already seen this for QB and WR also. Troy Aikman and Warren Moon were never 1st Team All Pro. Andre Reed, Tim Brown, Isaac Bruce at receiver. Don't think Reed ever led the league in any major category for his position either. The unwritten "rules" for enshrinement in the HOF are flimsy even at it's best. 

Edited August 25, 2021 by TecmoSuperJoe

[Mr Bad Example]

2 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

. The unwritten "rules" for enshrinement in the HOF are flimsy even at it's best. 

I do enjoy how HoF voters have that "THIS IS WHAT'S IMPORTANT except when it's not" metrics. 

Edited August 25, 2021 by Mr Bad Example

[Tk3]

On 8/24/2021 at 5:47 AM, SBLIII said:

he might be.

4x Pro Bowl and 2x All pro is a strong statement.

Get to 2 more Pro Bowls and you should be in.

IS HE 2x all pro?

Because I'm pretty sure he's actually 0x all pro

 

Still, of that "drafted in that 2015-2018" era of running back, I'd put him solidly behind Derrick Henry, and probably behind Todd Gurley (but on a better trajectory). Then he's on par with CMC and Zeke. And well ahead of the Chubb/Barkley 2018 crowd

Those are the relevant names from that draft era. I'd say Henry obviously has the best shot, and then Kamara/CMC are next in line

The bar IS going to move for what is expected of RBs, and frankly, total yards is going to start to matter more than pure rushing yards

[tyler735]

5 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

You're right, Faulk didn't have his best career stretch at the start of his career. Kamara might not have the best career stretch in his career yet either, but all we have so far are his first four seasons which whether you want to compare it to Faulk or someone else are still HOF pace worthy. And they are probably or par or better than a couple of other HOF backs best 4 year stretch.

Faulk got hurt in 1996, but that's not Kamara's fault for staying healthy himself. And they both played in the same amount of games in that span. If he was healthy enough to play, he's eligible enough to be judged in my book. You can use the "oh but..." in regards to any player and label them as a victim of circumstance. Everyone in the world would have an excuse then for lackluster production. "Oh I was hurt, oh I didn't have a good QB, oh my offensive line, oh, oh, oh, oh cry me a river"  Since when do the HOF voters care about contextualization anyway? Seems more often than not the process just comes down to raw numbers regardless how the numbers were achieved. That and/or if a career has some bedtime story angle to it. 

Agreed, and I'd just mention the same excuse could be used for Kamara during his 2019 season where he had lingering ankle and knee injuries for most of the season. He even played through a torn MCL. 

 

[lancerman]

5 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

The funny thing about the All Pro angle is that Frank Gore will probably be the first runner I can think of to be enshrined without a 1st Team All Pro to his name. We've already seen this for QB and WR also. Troy Aikman and Warren Moon were never 1st Team All Pro. Andre Reed, Tim Brown, Isaac Bruce at receiver. Don't think Reed ever led the league in any major category for his position either. The unwritten "rules" for enshrinement in the HOF are flimsy even at it's best. 

I’ll be honest. Gore shouldn’t get in. He’s getting in because he hung around for a bunch of years getting less than 4 yards a carry and as a result hit some hollowed ground on the yardage list. But because he has more yards than anyone not named Emmit Smith and Walter Payton (and he might pass Payton if he plays two more seasons) he’s in a weird spot for voters. 
 

But if it was me, he wouldn’t get in 

[sammymvpknight]

6 hours ago, lancerman said:

Faulk didn’t get in off his first 4 years. He got in off the next 3 when he had 3 consecutive OPOY and an MVP. 
 
That 3 year stretch he had 6765 yards and 59 TD’s which I don’t need to explain 3 years vs 4 years where he flatly out produces and blows both his and Kimara’s sample sizes out of the water with arguably the greatest 3 season stretch of games ever. 
 

Now Kamara could go on an insane production run, but we shouldn’t take Faulk and use his first 4 years as a comp as if it tells the story when he did something insane and unlikely literally in his next 3 years that led to 3 OPOY’s, an MVP, and unreal  production that basically made him a lock for the HOF. If Faulk had the same 4 years in 1999-2002 as he did in his first 4 years then he is having a totally different HOF discussion. 
 

Also it’s worth noting even that isn’t telling the full story. In 1996 Faulk was nursing an injury all year and it led to his worst year in the league (minus his final season). So even that 4 game sample size relies on Faulk having a total outlier down year to bring it down  to bring him down to make it comparable. 

Faulk was overall better when healthy in that initial run and then went into another stratosphere the next year when he left for the Rams and it’s very unreasonable to project out that any RB is going to have a trajectory like that. 

But the question is whether he'd get in at his current pace. He's been on a HOF trajectory through his first four seasons...that's pretty much the topic. Sure...he could get hurt...he could see a decline...there are a number of theoreticals that could be true regarding ANY player in the league.

Edited August 25, 2021 by sammymvpknight

[lancerman]

2 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

But the question is whether he'd get in at his current pace. He's been on a HOF trajectory through his first four seasons...that's pretty much the topic. Sure...he could get hurt...he could see a decline...there are a number of theoreticals that could be true regarding ANY player in the league.

And I would disagree with that. I don’t think him or Faulk were on a HOF pace their first 4 years. Very good, sure. But Faulk needed the rest of his career and a huge outlier of an upswing to make a case for himself. 

[sammymvpknight]

7 minutes ago, lancerman said:

And I would disagree with that. I don’t think him or Faulk were on a HOF pace their first 4 years. Very good, sure. But Faulk needed the rest of his career and a huge outlier of an upswing to make a case for himself. 

Please give me guys who WERE on a HOF pace through their first 4 seasons.

[Mr Bad Example]

17 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

Please give me guys who WERE on a HOF pace through their first 4 seasons.

Eric Dickerson? Barry Sanders? 

[sammymvpknight]

What is a HOF pace? Here are the modern day HOF RBs. I've excluded guys like Brown/Simpson who played 14 game seasons.

Emmitt Smith: 6,934 APY, 53 TDs

Barry Sanders: 6,968‬ APY, 57 TDs

Adrian Peterson: 6,952 APY, 54 TDs

Ladainian Tomlinson: 7,921 APY‬, 60 TDs

Curtis Martin: 6,341‬ APY, 46 TDs

Marshall Faulk: 5,897 APY, 41 TDs

Jerome Bettis: 5,287 APY, 25 TDs

Thurman Thomas: 6,869‬ APY, 39 TDs

Eric Dickerson: 7,842 APY, 57 TDs.

 

Here are the current players:
Christian McCaffrey: 5,614‬ APY, 40 TDs

Derrick Henry: 3,970 APY, 41 TDs

Frank Gore: 5,866 APY, 26 TDs

Dalvin Cook: 4,936 APY, 36 TDs

Alvin Kamara: 6,164 APY, 58 TDs

 

So...I see one player that had more TDs through the first four seasons than Kamara...Tomlinson. I see seven guys who had more all purpose yards than Kamara...Smith, Sanders, Peterson, Tomlinson, Martin, Dickerson, and Thomas. Forget the fact that Kamara hasn't even had 1000 touches over those four seasons. Forget that Emmitt Smith had 1451 touches. Forget that Barry Sanders had 1319 touches. Forget that Adrian Peterson had 1317 touches. Forget that Curtis Martin had 1,487 touches. Forget that Ladainian Tomlinson had a whopping 1,654‬ touches. Forget that Thurman Thomas had 1,253 touches. Forget that Eric Dickerson had 1,583 touches.

Let's completely ignore the statistical fact that Alvin Kamara did as much with far less than any of these HOF RBs...he's been the most efficient RB in NFL history. Let's just completely ignore that. Because we can afford to ignore that because in spite of his lack of touches...he has been in the ball park. 

If your argument is that Alvin Kamara isn't on a LaDainian Tomlinson or Eric Dickerson pace through 4 years...that could be a valid argument. But a HOF pace? I don't think many people on this thread even understands what HOF pace actually is. Because I can't see how you can see the current modern day HOF RBs and say that Alvin Kamara isn't in the ballpark. Doesn't guarantee that he will get there...because anything can happen. But the same argument could have been made for ANY of the RBs above through 4 seasons. So that's just stupid.

Edited August 25, 2021 by sammymvpknight