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IS Alvin Kamara on HOF pace?


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On 8/26/2021 at 11:58 AM, Danger said:

I whole heartedly expect his numbers to fall off a cliff with Drew Brees gone. Teams are gonna focus him so hard now.

Teams have been focusing hard on him since his rookie season, watch the Rams game that year. Both Atlanta games as well. Clearly the gameplan was "Stop Kamara."

Also, Kamara did well in all 4 games without Brees this year, and that was with an undersized move-TE playing QB

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Being on a hall of fame pace this early into a career as a RB is borderline meaningless. Making the hall as a RB, for a long time, has been as much about staying healthy as anything else. RBs can decline so quickly and so suddenly. Avoiding that is a bigger deal to the HOF resume in the end. Todd Gurley was on a hall of fame pace 4 years into his career. Larry Johnson had 5200+ yards from scrimmage 4 years into his career, despite basically not playing as a rookie. Le'Veon Bell was on a hall of fame pace at this point in his career. Jamal Lewis, Steven Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, etc., all were in similar territory in yards from scrimmage, regardless of the rushing/receiving ratio. Tons of guys have been super productive at this same point in their careers. The road block isn't going to be whether the yards are rushing or receiving, the road block will be the fact that most RBs fall off a cliff before they reach the point where it's actually a hall of fame career. So sure, he's on a hall of fame pace if he has a 10+ year career. But until he's still going strong in like year 7 or 8 it's way too optimistic to assume anything like that yet.

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9 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

Being on a hall of fame pace this early into a career as a RB is borderline meaningless. Making the hall as a RB, for a long time, has been as much about staying healthy as anything else. RBs can decline so quickly and so suddenly. Avoiding that is a bigger deal to the HOF resume in the end. Todd Gurley was on a hall of fame pace 4 years into his career. Larry Johnson had 5200+ yards from scrimmage 4 years into his career, despite basically not playing as a rookie. Le'Veon Bell was on a hall of fame pace at this point in his career. Jamal Lewis, Steven Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, etc., all were in similar territory in yards from scrimmage, regardless of the rushing/receiving ratio. Tons of guys have been super productive at this same point in their careers. The road block isn't going to be whether the yards are rushing or receiving, the road block will be the fact that most RBs fall off a cliff before they reach the point where it's actually a hall of fame career. So sure, he's on a hall of fame pace if he has a 10+ year career. But until he's still going strong in like year 7 or 8 it's way too optimistic to assume anything like that yet.

I don’t think that anyone disagrees with you. I think the point is to illustrate just how special Kamara has to open his career. He seems to still be doubted by many people. There are lots of people who think that Kamara was a product of Brees...and those people will again be humbled this season. Really special player. 

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On 8/28/2021 at 7:48 AM, sammymvpknight said:

He seems to still be doubted by many people. 

As one of the more vocal people in the Kamara threads - I don't think anyone disagrees that he's a top 5 RB (probably closer to 1 than 5, IMO).

I'm sincerely not sure what can be said to appease those who are espousing his skill. He's good, he's elite - no rational person really debates that anymore.

What more do you want?

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On 8/30/2021 at 5:04 PM, ET80 said:

As one of the more vocal people in the Kamara threads - I don't think anyone disagrees that he's a top 5 RB (probably closer to 1 than 5, IMO).

I'm sincerely not sure what can be said to appease those who are espousing his skill. He's good, he's elite - no rational person really debates that anymore.

What more do you want?

Is a shrine in everyone's home too much to ask? 

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On 8/30/2021 at 6:04 PM, ET80 said:

As one of the more vocal people in the Kamara threads - I don't think anyone disagrees that he's a top 5 RB (probably closer to 1 than 5, IMO).

I'm sincerely not sure what can be said to appease those who are espousing his skill. He's good, he's elite - no rational person really debates that anymore.

What more do you want?

Being top 5 over 3-4 years is not a HOF pace. They do not let the top 5 RB's in every 10 year period in. Much less every 4 year period. There's a massive difference between saying someone is elite and saying someone is on a HOF pace. Way too many people think the HOF is alot easier to get in than it actually is. You need like multiple All Pros, pretty much need to crack the top 20 in rushing yards and TD's respectively, and probably need multiple 1k seasons to even really be considered alongside everyone else.

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On 9/7/2021 at 6:05 AM, lancerman said:

Being top 5 over 3-4 years is not a HOF pace. They do not let the top 5 RB's in every 10 year period in. Much less every 4 year period. There's a massive difference between saying someone is elite and saying someone is on a HOF pace. Way too many people think the HOF is alot easier to get in than it actually is. You need like multiple All Pros, pretty much need to crack the top 20 in rushing yards and TD's respectively, and probably need multiple 1k seasons to even really be considered alongside everyone else.

The Alvin Kamara case is interesting though, he averages over 100 YPG from scrimmage but has never had a 1k rushing season. His rushing average has been good and then great, he makes big plays and scores a ton of TDs. 

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On 8/27/2021 at 8:02 PM, Jakuvious said:

Being on a hall of fame pace this early into a career as a RB is borderline meaningless. Making the hall as a RB, for a long time, has been as much about staying healthy as anything else. RBs can decline so quickly and so suddenly. Avoiding that is a bigger deal to the HOF resume in the end. Todd Gurley was on a hall of fame pace 4 years into his career. Larry Johnson had 5200+ yards from scrimmage 4 years into his career, despite basically not playing as a rookie. Le'Veon Bell was on a hall of fame pace at this point in his career. Jamal Lewis, Steven Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, etc., all were in similar territory in yards from scrimmage, regardless of the rushing/receiving ratio. Tons of guys have been super productive at this same point in their careers. The road block isn't going to be whether the yards are rushing or receiving, the road block will be the fact that most RBs fall off a cliff before they reach the point where it's actually a hall of fame career. So sure, he's on a hall of fame pace if he has a 10+ year career. But until he's still going strong in like year 7 or 8 it's way too optimistic to assume anything like that yet.

Bell literally threw his career away by leaving Pittsburgh. 100% would be HOF worthy if he had 3 or 4 more good seasons in Pittsburgh IMO.

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On 9/9/2021 at 2:02 PM, MrOaktown_56 said:

Bell literally threw his career away by leaving Pittsburgh. 100% would be HOF worthy if he had 3 or 4 more good seasons in Pittsburgh IMO.

I think this is a bit revisionist - Bell had an injury history creeping up on him and wasn't really doing much with his "waiting to exhale" running style, as holes weren't really opening up.

I think he had a few good seasons left in him, but not what his peak was capable of getting. RB is a position where the decline is pretty permanent - once it's gone, it doesn't come back.

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HOF "pace" means nothing since its the lifespan of RB's which often becomes the deciding factor. i dont think he is Jim Brown/Barry Sanders level guy who can retire early and get in that way. 

but his production is pretty on par with someone like Tiki Barber, is it not? just over 100 all purpose yards per game, comparable efficiency. kamara scores some more TDs...

its conceivable that he gets into the HOF, but he might need to start approaching frank gore lifespan or, like it or not, he needs to end up having signature postseason moments to get past the raw numbers

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13 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

HOF "pace" means nothing since its the lifespan of RB's which often becomes the deciding factor. i dont think he is Jim Brown/Barry Sanders level guy who can retire early and get in that way. 

but his production is pretty on par with someone like Tiki Barber, is it not? just over 100 all purpose yards per game, comparable efficiency. kamara scores some more TDs...

its conceivable that he gets into the HOF, but he might need to start approaching frank gore lifespan or, like it or not, he needs to end up having signature postseason moments to get past the raw numbers

I wouldn't say Brown or Sanders retired "early" they both put in a good decade or so. Their production never fell off is what throws people. 

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