Trey Lances devolopment (it failed)

[Forge]

On 8/15/2022 at 5:19 PM, adamq said:

I think this forum was (for the most part) in on the "anyone but Mac" train.  Heres a hypothetical.. One year later, the 49ers get the opportunity to swap Lance for Mac Jones...

Who makes that deal? 

Mac was hands down the most impressive and successful of any 2021 QB, but Lance has shown flashes of a next level not possible for Mac

It's a year later, I don't know what has changed to take anyone away from their position last year. Mac did pretty much exactly what you'd expect from him. Lance hasn't played. The only reason you're making that deal is if you're now getting cold feet and just want to take the more known quantity with a lightly tighter range of outcomes moving forward.  Even if you think that Mac has a better chance at winning a super bowl this year with the roster we have (which is not an unreasonable take), you could just keep Jimmy as the starter and be at the same spot you would be with Mac most likely. 

The problem with Mac wasn't year 1 or 2. The problem with Mac is year 4, 5, 6 and 7 when you have to start deciding on whether or not you're going to pay him. It's really, really tough to consistently win if you're working with a mid tier QB sucking up 11-15% of your cap space on a given year. It's certainly not impossible, but you better have a top tier coach and really take advantage of the lower cap years.

Nothing he did last year changes anything. Nor did Lance sitting for most of the year change anything. Jones threw more passes last year in games than Lance has thrown in games in high school, college and the nfl combined. That's not a joke. Mac had a good rookie year (grading on a curve of rookie years) and he was mostly an okay NFL starting QB (some people got a little ahead of themselves). The fear was always that he was coming into the league at 90% of what he will be at his height. Now he has to grow past what he is. That's not a guarantee. Guys like Baker and Mariota couldn't do it (though I won't rule it out for Baker yet...hell, if people generally consider Baker a better QB than Mac in 3 years I wouldn't be that surprised, and I'm very indifferent on Mayfield). He really, really struggled to finish out the season (not counting the Jax game), and that's the type of stuff that happens when you start putting more and more film out there and people develop ways to defend your offensive scheme and you as well. Now there has to be a counter. So a year just isn't enough time for me to really look back on hindsight and think that between those two players a different decision should have been made. 

There was always a non zero chance that Mac ended up better than both Fields and Lance. People bust, it happens. But I also feel that there is a very small chance that he's ever anything much better than a top 12-ish qb in the league. So I think the process was still done correctly. The results are the results. 

The more interesting hypothetical questions are whether or not the team would be in a better spot if they had stayed at 12 (or maybe gave up like a second to move up a few spots on draft day) and drafted Fields / Mac there and kept all the additional picks. Or assuming the 49ers got leapfrogged by everyone for the top 5 qbs,  say they draft Slater in the first and came back with Mills in the second (a scenario that was on a lot of people's radar). 

[JIllg]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

It's a year later, I don't know what has changed to take anyone away from their position last year. Mac did pretty much exactly what you'd expect from him. Lance hasn't played. The only reason you're making that deal is if you're now getting cold feet and just want to take the more known quantity with a lightly tighter range of outcomes moving forward.  Even if you think that Mac has a better chance at winning a super bowl this year with the roster we have (which is not an unreasonable take), you could just keep Jimmy as the starter and be at the same spot you would be with Mac most likely. 

The problem with Mac wasn't year 1 or 2. The problem with Mac is year 4, 5, 6 and 7 when you have to start deciding on whether or not you're going to pay him. It's really, really tough to consistently win if you're working with a mid tier QB sucking up 11-15% of your cap space on a given year. It's certainly not impossible, but you better have a top tier coach and really take advantage of the lower cap years.

Nothing he did last year changes anything. Nor did Lance sitting for most of the year change anything. Jones threw more passes last year in games than Lance has thrown in games in high school, college and the nfl combined. That's not a joke. Mac had a good rookie year (grading on a curve of rookie years) and he was mostly an okay NFL starting QB (some people got a little ahead of themselves). The fear was always that he was coming into the league at 90% of what he will be at his height. Now he has to grow past what he is. That's not a guarantee. Guys like Baker and Mariota couldn't do it (though I won't rule it out for Baker yet...hell, if people generally consider Baker a better QB than Mac in 3 years I wouldn't be that surprised, and I'm very indifferent on Mayfield). He really, really struggled to finish out the season (not counting the Jax game), and that's the type of stuff that happens when you start putting more and more film out there and people develop ways to defend your offensive scheme and you as well. Now there has to be a counter. So a year just isn't enough time for me to really look back on hindsight and think that between those two players a different decision should have been made. 

There was always a non zero chance that Mac ended up better than both Fields and Lance. People bust, it happens. But I also feel that there is a very small chance that he's ever anything much better than a top 12-ish qb in the league. So I think the process was still done correctly. The results are the results. 

The more interesting hypothetical questions are whether or not the team would be in a better spot if they had stayed at 12 (or maybe gave up like a second to move up a few spots on draft day) and drafted Fields / Mac there and kept all the additional picks. Or assuming the 49ers got leapfrogged by everyone for the top 5 qbs,  say they draft Slater in the first and came back with Mills in the second (a scenario that was on a lot of people's radar). 

All of this is right. I remember going on long Davis Mills rants before the draft. “He’ll run an offense for you effectively! He basically was college Jimmy G already!” It’s funny. I know that there’s a lot of love given Mills’s way because he wasn’t useless, but I was unimpressed with him overall and I was among the ones banging the table before the draft. Anyhow, I think there were two paths we could have taken.

We could have stayed at 11 and hoped for Mac (with Mills as the fallback option) or taken a very short trade up to secure him and just pulled in a new Mac Jones type every new rookie contract to be our new “Jimmy G but cheap” that could distribute and guide a loaded well coached roster. The other path was get a guy capable of being worth a full top end quarterback salary. And trying to bet on that guy is rough, even with top draft picks. The hit rate is way better at the very top of the draft than anywhere else, but you are still having to gamble.

I personally would have preferred Fields at the time, though it’s a coin flip for me now (not including the fact that Fields is going to have to walk uphill through the snow both ways to make it given his current situation). I just thought Fields’ accuracy and feel for routes down the field and his ability to break off 70 yard runs on the backside of zone read plays to keep defenses honest would fit right in. I get the reasons why they preferred Lance. For them its footwork and timing and work ethic. I had no work ethic concerns with Fields, but Lance is kind of nuts in that regard. And I think the pocket maneuvering and sack avoidance was something they valued a lot. They mentioned it in a press conference; I think all of us that deep dived the quarterbacks rated Lance highly and Fields poorly on that front. Jones was tough to tell; Alabama allowed so little pressures and his receivers and routes tended to win quickly in the down. In the NFL those traits have only been magnified.

Anyhow, we drafted Lance. There’s some encouraging things. There’s the days where you hear he airmailed receivers more than once (I don’t care so much about any other negative practice stats for reasons previously mentioned). As I think we all know, those uncatchable throws are the ones that will tank him if he tanks. I think that’s the pressure point for him. The beat off on timing issues that he has can keep him from being great, but that feels like those issues could get worked out with reps and it also feels as though he is going to do some other special things to compensate for it. But the airmail whiffs and yard off a receiver passes just can’t happen as often as they did his first year. And we get to see it happen live. And if there is some real, actually creative quarterback run stuff of the wilder version that I expected when we drafted Lance, I’d be all for it. I’m an Auburn alum and I got to watch Cam Newton live as a student. We shouldn’t leverage Lance nearly that heavily - Cam was that team’s best tailback. But I fully expect that we leverage Lance in similar ways especially in short yardage. You don’t have to run the same GT pull power play because that’s the only QB run you’ve installed lol. Even if you also design a weird play action shot off of it.

[straighthate]

I didn’t see anything to change my mind from the last year so far so if I could go back in time I’d take Mac. In fact I’d take neither at 3, would stay at 12 and maybe move a couple spots if felt it was absolutely necessary, but no way would I trade 2 future firsts to get in position to take either.  I felt it was stupid at the time and still do, and don’t see anything from either to say they were worth making that trade. 
 

That said, if you’re asking if I’d trade Mac today for Lance, definitely not. We made our pick, we sat him to develop him and he’s got upside we just gotta believe in now. I’m all on the Lance train because if Shanny believed he was and will be that good, I gotta believe he knows more than me about QB development than I do, so I’ll trust it. Fingers crossed on a huge career for Lance. But I’m also not expecting a ton from him this year. Hope he can be good enough, but I’m not gonna pound the table and say see I told you so if Mac throws for 30 TDs and Lance throws 30 picks. Lance should improve more over the years than Lance, so let’s see what happens. 

[Chrissooner49er]

11 hours ago, Forge said:

It's a year later, I don't know what has changed to take anyone away from their position last year. Mac did pretty much exactly what you'd expect from him. Lance hasn't played. The only reason you're making that deal is if you're now getting cold feet and just want to take the more known quantity with a lightly tighter range of outcomes moving forward.  Even if you think that Mac has a better chance at winning a super bowl this year with the roster we have (which is not an unreasonable take), you could just keep Jimmy as the starter and be at the same spot you would be with Mac most likely. 

The problem with Mac wasn't year 1 or 2. The problem with Mac is year 4, 5, 6 and 7 when you have to start deciding on whether or not you're going to pay him. It's really, really tough to consistently win if you're working with a mid tier QB sucking up 11-15% of your cap space on a given year. It's certainly not impossible, but you better have a top tier coach and really take advantage of the lower cap years.

Nothing he did last year changes anything. Nor did Lance sitting for most of the year change anything. Jones threw more passes last year in games than Lance has thrown in games in high school, college and the nfl combined. That's not a joke. Mac had a good rookie year (grading on a curve of rookie years) and he was mostly an okay NFL starting QB (some people got a little ahead of themselves). The fear was always that he was coming into the league at 90% of what he will be at his height. Now he has to grow past what he is. That's not a guarantee. Guys like Baker and Mariota couldn't do it (though I won't rule it out for Baker yet...hell, if people generally consider Baker a better QB than Mac in 3 years I wouldn't be that surprised, and I'm very indifferent on Mayfield). He really, really struggled to finish out the season (not counting the Jax game), and that's the type of stuff that happens when you start putting more and more film out there and people develop ways to defend your offensive scheme and you as well. Now there has to be a counter. So a year just isn't enough time for me to really look back on hindsight and think that between those two players a different decision should have been made. 

There was always a non zero chance that Mac ended up better than both Fields and Lance. People bust, it happens. But I also feel that there is a very small chance that he's ever anything much better than a top 12-ish qb in the league. So I think the process was still done correctly. The results are the results. 

The more interesting hypothetical questions are whether or not the team would be in a better spot if they had stayed at 12 (or maybe gave up like a second to move up a few spots on draft day) and drafted Fields / Mac there and kept all the additional picks. Or assuming the 49ers got leapfrogged by everyone for the top 5 qbs,  say they draft Slater in the first and came back with Mills in the second (a scenario that was on a lot of people's radar). 

I was also very interested in Mills and would have been perfectly happy with him as a 2nd round pick, had we stayed at 12.  I think it will be interesting to watch the story unfold for both Davis Mills and Mac Jones, considering I like/liked them both...

[Herodreamer79]

Good God. I feel like I just walked into the Mac Jones Fanboy Club.🤢🤮

Why do you all want want that noodle arm fatass? SMH He's literally Jimmy Garoppolo with mantits.

Mac Jones just came from Alabama with a full palette of games and fell into a perfect situation. He's already 90% realized. he's the poster child for High Floor, Low Ceiling. I bet Trevor, Lance, and Fields all surpass him in the next 2 years. 

And without Josh McDaniels Mac is going to get exposed harder than Jimmy Garoppolo throwing in the post-season. 

Lance is an off-the-charts prospect with talent and smarts coming of his ears and he's surrounded by 1st round picks and all pro playmakers with arguably the best play designer/playcaller in the NFL not named Andy Reid. 

 

Mac Jones!!! LMFAO!. You people are nauseating.  

[straighthate]

43 minutes ago, Herodreamer79 said:

Good God. I feel like I just walked into the Mac Jones Fanboy Club.🤢🤮

Why do you all want want that noodle arm fatass? SMH He's literally Jimmy Garoppolo with mantits.

Mac Jones just came from Alabama with a full palette of games and fell into a perfect situation. He's already 90% realized. he's the poster child for High Floor, Low Ceiling. I bet Trevor, Lance, and Fields all surpass him in the next 2 years. 

And without Josh McDaniels Mac is going to get exposed harder than Jimmy Garoppolo throwing in the post-season. 

Lance is an off-the-charts prospect with talent and smarts coming of his ears and he's surrounded by 1st round picks and all pro playmakers with arguably the best play designer/playcaller in the NFL not named Andy Reid. 

 

Mac Jones!!! LMFAO!. You people are nauseating.  

This forum was like 95% opposed to Mac Jones, so not sure what you’re talking about. I think it was pretty even for fields and lance. I was one of a handful of people who thought Jones was the best of those three. 
 

The reasons you listed at the end of your post give Lance a great shot this year. Also would have given Jones, Fields or Jimmy G a great shot this year. I’d argue drafting a CB last year or two first round o lineman the last couple years instead of lance would have made this team the most talented in the nfl. But after last year I’ve pretty much given in that jimmy was not going to personally win us any playoff games, so maybe he would have needed that kind of a roster to win it all. 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, Herodreamer79 said:

 

 

Mac Jones!!! LMFAO!. You people are nauseating.  

Yeah, this really isn't the way to introduce yourself to the forum.  This isn't Twitter or Reddit. If you want to have a real conversation with some good, intelligent fans who sometimes disagree, we welcome you. This is a good community, and it's important to emphasize the community portion of that. 

Coming on and calling people nauseating isn't it though, man. 

[Herodreamer79]

1 hour ago, straighthate said:

This forum was like 95% opposed to Mac Jones, so not sure what you’re talking about. I think it was pretty even for fields and lance. I was one of a handful of people who thought Jones was the best of those three. 
 

Not from what I read. I like Fields... but he's in a rough spot right now. 

 

1 hour ago, straighthate said:

The reasons you listed at the end of your post give Lance a great shot this year. Also would have given Jones, Fields or Jimmy G a great shot this year.

Literally any competent top 25 QB can navigate this team to a playoff win. but getting mac would just be jimmy 2.0 

Mac Jones isn't going to beat Pat Mahomes in the superbowl. Mac Jones isn't going to beat Tom Brady in the NFC Champ game. 

Lance will be fine. Fields would also do well in this offense, but Shanahan apparently had little interest in him (maybe he just saw lance as an outright better version of Fields. As Lance ran the offense in NDSU, called his own plays, read defenses, called audibles, made checks... etc..).

Jimmy Garoppolo didn't do anything extraordinary. what did he throw this year... 20TDs and 12 INTs? That's not even 2:1 with Kittle, Aiyuk, Deebo, Mitchell, Juice in a shanahan offense? Herbert would have thrown 40 TDs in this offense in a down year.

Jimmy's at the top of the league in INT Rates and bottom of the league in Air Yards. How is that even possible?

And the 49ers still had 2 deep playoff runs in 3 years.. even with jimmy being completely useless in the post-season.

Unless Lance is a colossal disaster...(which i highly doubt. the kid has 2 NFL starts and Shanahan already feels comfortable sitting him a whole week of pre-season) this offense is getting a supercharge right in the arm. 

Edited August 20, 2022 by Herodreamer79

[Forge]

Lol, Lombardi is going to go to his grave spewing this crap. He's so sore that he ended up wrong here. 

Whether Lance is good or he blows, I'll be happy when it's over

[Justone2]

The moment we drafted Joe Williams it was clear this was Kyle's show(allthough the hiring of Kyle and John made that clear already). Believing anyone other than Kyle decided who our QB would be(of the options available. Like its clear he wanted Kirk until Jimmy came available and they went for that.) is like such a weird stance to me. I have zero trouble believing Kyle would like to have Brady or Mac but saying he didn't want Lance just makes no sense because i don't believe for a second he will let that happen.

 

If it was about the Nick Bosa/Quinnen Williams thing there was rumours about that draft sure i can believe it if Kyle wanted QW but we ended with Bosa but on offense no way anyone will tell Kyle what to do if he is convinced of something.

Edited September 4, 2022 by Justone2

[Forge]

10 minutes ago, Justone2 said:

The moment we drafted Joe Williams it was clear this was Kyle's show(allthough the hiring of Kyle and John made that clear already). Believing anyone other than Kyle decided who our QB would be(of the options available. Like its clear he wanted Kirk until Jimmy came available and they went for that.) is like such a weird stance to me. I have zero trouble believing Kyle would like to have Brady or Mac but saying he didn't want Lance just makes no sense because i don't believe for a second he will let that happen.

 

If it was about the Nick Bosa/Quinnen Williams thing there was rumours about that draft sure i can believe it if Kyle wanted QW but we ended with Bosa but on offense no way anyone will tell Kyle what to do if he is convinced of something.

Bears fans are feasting on this, it's hilarious (not on here). 

[49erurtaza]

47 minutes ago, Forge said:

Bears fans are feasting on this, it's hilarious (not on here). 

Lol

[Justone2]

Yeah preseason football with vanilla playbooks and no gameplanning 100% is a measure for how good a team will be and what players will shine. If you want to see what Lance can do watch the second half against the Texans from last year and you probably have a better idea of what he is.

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

I think Mac Jones is equal to JG, so I suppose the real hypothetical is whether the team would be better off with JG & three first round picks, Mac & Two first rounders& and cap savings, or Trey Lance and cap savings.  

 

I don't like hypotheticals, so I don't wanna guess.  The outcome of the Rodgers V Smith hypothetical when combined with this hypothetical produces an infinite number of other hypothetical situations. 

I don't think the bears suck as bad as everyone else thinks.  Everyone is always confident in the league's pecking order before they start playing football. I think the bears will have over six wins.  Nagy sucked, and held the guys back.  

[Forge]

Damn, Joe