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Justin Herbert is the best young QB in the league and it's not even close


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2 hours ago, FrantikRam said:

 

Cool. So I'm officially good to start claiming that Stafford is currently the best QB in the league? Or possibly second best to Rodgers?

It's either that this year is all we're focusing on - which is Herbert's ONLY claim over Mahomes - and even then, Herbert is 9th in passer rating with really good weapons, and in this case, Stafford (and others) is better than Herbert by a good margin.

Or prior years and/or accounting for the future matter, and Herbert is not near Mahomes' level yet.

You can't have it both ways.

The first problem was you isolating QB performance to passer rating.

We have what 12 plus years of data on Stafford though.

What other claim would Herbert need over Mahomes, considering this is his 2nd season.  From a talent, skill set and ability perspective, Herbert is there with anyone.

You know there is many factors that go into passer rating, such as drops. Which Herbert and his really good weapons lead the league in (30)

You take every major performance metric, scale the QBs rankings in each and have a composite score. Herbert has a top 3 score in the league.  Not just using passer rating.  Current play has a stronger correlation on the future than the past. 

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7 hours ago, FrantikRam said:

 

He's outplaying Mahomes THIS year.

He's also the second best QB in LA THIS year.

That's the danger of honing in on one season.

Lamar Jackson was the only unanimous MVP - had a season MUCH better than Herbert (coincidentally his second year also) - and now....?

Herbert > Stafford

Don’t even go there with that 2nd best QB in LA nonsense.

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11 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

The first problem was you isolating QB performance to passer rating.

We have what 12 plus years of data on Stafford though.

What other claim would Herbert need over Mahomes, considering this is his 2nd season.  From a talent, skill set and ability perspective, Herbert is there with anyone.

You know there is many factors that go into passer rating, such as drops. Which Herbert and his really good weapons lead the league in (30)

You take every major performance metric, scale the QBs rankings in each and have a composite score. Herbert has a top 3 score in the league.  Not just using passer rating.  Current play has a stronger correlation on the future than the past. 

A lot. At the equivalent point in Mahomes's career (29 career starts), Mahomes had more yards, TDs, fewer INTs, was less sacked, had a higher YPA, YPC, ANY/A, passer rating, and led basically anything you can find save for rushing yards and completion percentage. And that's before getting into the MVP, OPOTY, 1st team all-pro, pro-bowl, and the playoff win (and Dee Ford is all that kept it from a superbowl appearance.) You can't cite the 12 years of data on Stafford and then try to throw out the 4 on Mahomes.

They're playing on a similar level this year. Both had a slump in the middle of the season, but have overall still been very good QBs. Very good, but inconsistent, for each. But when it's even remotely close, you're going to rank the guy who for three years was at a level of success Herbert has not yet reached, over the guy who might be slightly better this year.

I love Herbert, and thought he was massively underrated coming into the season because LAC didn't see team success to match what he did last year. But this narrative has turned way too far the other direction. He's right in there with that young QB pile of Murray, Jackson, Allen, and Burrow, as guys who have been very good but clearly still have things to work on at this stage in their careers. None of them have reached the heights of Mahomes, Rodgers, or Brady yet (I'm kind of iffy throwing Brady in there at this stage, but I think it stands for now.)

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53 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

A lot. At the equivalent point in Mahomes's career (29 career starts), Mahomes had more yards, TDs, fewer INTs, was less sacked, had a higher YPA, YPC, ANY/A, passer rating, and led basically anything you can find save for rushing yards and completion percentage. And that's before getting into the MVP, OPOTY, 1st team all-pro, pro-bowl, and the playoff win (and Dee Ford is all that kept it from a superbowl appearance.) You can't cite the 12 years of data on Stafford and then try to throw out the 4 on Mahomes.

Yes Mahomes had better numbers. But he also didn't start his rookie year. He got to sit and learn under the same staff and same system.

Herbert played as a rookie and is with his 2nd staff and 2nd system.

There is distinctive comparative differences to their situations and that context matters. Herbert is putting together the greatest start production wise to first 2 years in the league. Yes Mahomes has the greatest first 4 years STARTING in league history.

 

53 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

They're playing on a similar level this year. Both had a slump in the middle of the season, but have overall still been very good QBs. Very good, but inconsistent, for each. But when it's even remotely close, you're going to rank the guy who for three years was at a level of success Herbert has not yet reached, over the guy who might be slightly better this year.

Fair

53 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

I love Herbert, and thought he was massively underrated coming into the season because LAC didn't see team success to match what he did last year. But this narrative has turned way too far the other direction. He's right in there with that young QB pile of Murray, Jackson, Allen, and Burrow, as guys who have been very good but clearly still have things to work on at this stage in their careers. None of them have reached the heights of Mahomes, Rodgers, or Brady yet (I'm kind of iffy throwing Brady in there at this stage, but I think it stands for now.)

Why wouldn't you put Brady if this is about achievements and production? If this is about actual talent, ability and skill set that translates to on field play, what is it that you think Herbert still needs to work on that Mahomes doesnt? 

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1 hour ago, Bearerofnews said:

The first problem was you isolating QB performance to passer rating.

We have what 12 plus years of data on Stafford though.

What other claim would Herbert need over Mahomes, considering this is his 2nd season.  From a talent, skill set and ability perspective, Herbert is there with anyone.

You know there is many factors that go into passer rating, such as drops. Which Herbert and his really good weapons lead the league in (30)

You take every major performance metric, scale the QBs rankings in each and have a composite score. Herbert has a top 3 score in the league.  Not just using passer rating.  Current play has a stronger correlation on the future than the past. 

 

Oh it's not just rating. Stafford is better than Herbert almost across the board.

Stafford was with the Detroit Lions. In his first year outside of Detroit, he's been a top 3 QB for the entire season, at times number 1. That data needs context.

Also, again - if we're counting that data, have to account for Mahomes past data as well which means he's a FAR superior QB to Herbert.

Herbert is good - top 10 for sure - but he's not (yet) as good as you're making him out to be, and that's okay.

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5 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

 

In what way is Herbert better than Stafford this year? It's not just passer rating. Stafford has just been better pretty much across the board.

I like Stafford a lot but if you put  Herbert on the Rams, you guys would have beaten the Niners and Titans. Maybe even the Packers as well. Herbert is not just more physically talented but also wouldn’t have thrown those costly six picks. And you have a better shot of coming back from a deficit with Herbert than Stafford IMO.

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10 minutes ago, Xenos said:

I like Stafford a lot but if you put  Herbert on the Rams, you guys would have beaten the Niners and Titans. Maybe even the Packers as well. Herbert is not just more physically talented but also wouldn’t have thrown those costly six picks. And you have a better shot of coming back from a deficit with Herbert than Stafford IMO.

 

That is a WILD statement to make...

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/comeback.cgi?player=StafMa00

Stafford has been specializing in coming back from a deficit for years.

How is he more physically talented? Not his arm surely? They're comparable there.

 

Herbert has turned the ball over 13 times; Stafford 10. Stafford has three pick sixes, Herbert two, one for each bounced off a receivers hands

 

So....

 

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41 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

 

Oh it's not just rating. Stafford is better than Herbert almost across the board.

Stafford was with the Detroit Lions. In his first year outside of Detroit, he's been a top 3 QB for the entire season, at times number 1. That data needs context.

Also, again - if we're counting that data, have to account for Mahomes past data as well which means he's a FAR superior QB to Herbert.

Herbert is good - top 10 for sure - but he's not (yet) as good as you're making him out to be, and that's okay.

Do you really want me to do this? Do you really want me to list the rankings for Herbert vs Stafford vs Mahomes in about 16 different key metrics?

Calling Herbert top 10 is an insult. He has established himself as a top 5 QB already. Only thing separating him is experience or the accolades.

 

I assure you there is no gap in talent from him or any other QB walking the planet. The crazy thing is I'm not even being a homer. 

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48 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

 

In what way is Herbert better than Stafford this year? It's not just passer rating. Stafford has just been better pretty much across the board.

Adjusted comp%

Herbert 9th  Stafford 17th

Turnover worthy play

Herbert 1st (lowest) Stafford 17th

QBR

Herbert 3rd.    Stafford 1st

PAA

Herbert 1st.     Stafford 2nd

EPA

Herbert 1st.     Stafford 6th

Pass EPA

Herbert 2nd.    Stafford 3rd

BAD THROW%

Herbert 14.4%      Stafford 18.5%

ON TARGET

Justin Herbert 81.3%     Stafford 76.8%

DYAR

Herbert 4th.         Stafford 2nd

DVOA

Herbert 6th.         Stafford 4th

EPA/play

Herbert 5th.         Stafford 2nd

TD%

Herbert 5th.        Stafford 1st

YDS per game

Herbert 4th.       Stafford 3rd

PFF

Herbert 3rd.       Stafford 10th

 

So in a career year, Stafford might be slightly playing better than Herbert in his 2nd year. Herbert is no question playing at a top 5 level. Considering #1 in drops by receivers and 2nd straight system and OC. That's pretty damn impressive.

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