Bearerofnews Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 hours ago, FrantikRam said: Cool. So I'm officially good to start claiming that Stafford is currently the best QB in the league? Or possibly second best to Rodgers? It's either that this year is all we're focusing on - which is Herbert's ONLY claim over Mahomes - and even then, Herbert is 9th in passer rating with really good weapons, and in this case, Stafford (and others) is better than Herbert by a good margin. Or prior years and/or accounting for the future matter, and Herbert is not near Mahomes' level yet. You can't have it both ways. The first problem was you isolating QB performance to passer rating. We have what 12 plus years of data on Stafford though. What other claim would Herbert need over Mahomes, considering this is his 2nd season. From a talent, skill set and ability perspective, Herbert is there with anyone. You know there is many factors that go into passer rating, such as drops. Which Herbert and his really good weapons lead the league in (30) You take every major performance metric, scale the QBs rankings in each and have a composite score. Herbert has a top 3 score in the league. Not just using passer rating. Current play has a stronger correlation on the future than the past. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 7 hours ago, FrantikRam said: He's outplaying Mahomes THIS year. He's also the second best QB in LA THIS year. That's the danger of honing in on one season. Lamar Jackson was the only unanimous MVP - had a season MUCH better than Herbert (coincidentally his second year also) - and now....? Herbert > Stafford Don’t even go there with that 2nd best QB in LA nonsense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said: The first problem was you isolating QB performance to passer rating. We have what 12 plus years of data on Stafford though. What other claim would Herbert need over Mahomes, considering this is his 2nd season. From a talent, skill set and ability perspective, Herbert is there with anyone. You know there is many factors that go into passer rating, such as drops. Which Herbert and his really good weapons lead the league in (30) You take every major performance metric, scale the QBs rankings in each and have a composite score. Herbert has a top 3 score in the league. Not just using passer rating. Current play has a stronger correlation on the future than the past. A lot. At the equivalent point in Mahomes's career (29 career starts), Mahomes had more yards, TDs, fewer INTs, was less sacked, had a higher YPA, YPC, ANY/A, passer rating, and led basically anything you can find save for rushing yards and completion percentage. And that's before getting into the MVP, OPOTY, 1st team all-pro, pro-bowl, and the playoff win (and Dee Ford is all that kept it from a superbowl appearance.) You can't cite the 12 years of data on Stafford and then try to throw out the 4 on Mahomes. They're playing on a similar level this year. Both had a slump in the middle of the season, but have overall still been very good QBs. Very good, but inconsistent, for each. But when it's even remotely close, you're going to rank the guy who for three years was at a level of success Herbert has not yet reached, over the guy who might be slightly better this year. I love Herbert, and thought he was massively underrated coming into the season because LAC didn't see team success to match what he did last year. But this narrative has turned way too far the other direction. He's right in there with that young QB pile of Murray, Jackson, Allen, and Burrow, as guys who have been very good but clearly still have things to work on at this stage in their careers. None of them have reached the heights of Mahomes, Rodgers, or Brady yet (I'm kind of iffy throwing Brady in there at this stage, but I think it stands for now.) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefs_5627 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Bearerofnews said: You know there is many factors that go into passer rating, such as drops. Which Herbert and his really good weapons lead the league in (30) Link? I'm seeing 24 everywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notthatbluestuff Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 53 minutes ago, Jakuvious said: A lot. At the equivalent point in Mahomes's career (29 career starts), Mahomes had more yards, TDs, fewer INTs, was less sacked, had a higher YPA, YPC, ANY/A, passer rating, and led basically anything you can find save for rushing yards and completion percentage. And that's before getting into the MVP, OPOTY, 1st team all-pro, pro-bowl, and the playoff win (and Dee Ford is all that kept it from a superbowl appearance.) You can't cite the 12 years of data on Stafford and then try to throw out the 4 on Mahomes. Yes Mahomes had better numbers. But he also didn't start his rookie year. He got to sit and learn under the same staff and same system. Herbert played as a rookie and is with his 2nd staff and 2nd system. There is distinctive comparative differences to their situations and that context matters. Herbert is putting together the greatest start production wise to first 2 years in the league. Yes Mahomes has the greatest first 4 years STARTING in league history. 53 minutes ago, Jakuvious said: They're playing on a similar level this year. Both had a slump in the middle of the season, but have overall still been very good QBs. Very good, but inconsistent, for each. But when it's even remotely close, you're going to rank the guy who for three years was at a level of success Herbert has not yet reached, over the guy who might be slightly better this year. Fair 53 minutes ago, Jakuvious said: I love Herbert, and thought he was massively underrated coming into the season because LAC didn't see team success to match what he did last year. But this narrative has turned way too far the other direction. He's right in there with that young QB pile of Murray, Jackson, Allen, and Burrow, as guys who have been very good but clearly still have things to work on at this stage in their careers. None of them have reached the heights of Mahomes, Rodgers, or Brady yet (I'm kind of iffy throwing Brady in there at this stage, but I think it stands for now.) Why wouldn't you put Brady if this is about achievements and production? If this is about actual talent, ability and skill set that translates to on field play, what is it that you think Herbert still needs to work on that Mahomes doesnt? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, Chiefs_5627 said: Link? I'm seeing 24 everywhere. PFF has Herbert with 30 drops tied now with Trevor Lawerence. Mahomes and Brady 2nd at 27. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrantikRam Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Xenos said: Herbert > Stafford Don’t even go there with that 2nd best QB in LA nonsense. In what way is Herbert better than Stafford this year? It's not just passer rating. Stafford has just been better pretty much across the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrantikRam Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Bearerofnews said: The first problem was you isolating QB performance to passer rating. We have what 12 plus years of data on Stafford though. What other claim would Herbert need over Mahomes, considering this is his 2nd season. From a talent, skill set and ability perspective, Herbert is there with anyone. You know there is many factors that go into passer rating, such as drops. Which Herbert and his really good weapons lead the league in (30) You take every major performance metric, scale the QBs rankings in each and have a composite score. Herbert has a top 3 score in the league. Not just using passer rating. Current play has a stronger correlation on the future than the past. Oh it's not just rating. Stafford is better than Herbert almost across the board. Stafford was with the Detroit Lions. In his first year outside of Detroit, he's been a top 3 QB for the entire season, at times number 1. That data needs context. Also, again - if we're counting that data, have to account for Mahomes past data as well which means he's a FAR superior QB to Herbert. Herbert is good - top 10 for sure - but he's not (yet) as good as you're making him out to be, and that's okay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, FrantikRam said: In what way is Herbert better than Stafford this year? It's not just passer rating. Stafford has just been better pretty much across the board. I like Stafford a lot but if you put Herbert on the Rams, you guys would have beaten the Niners and Titans. Maybe even the Packers as well. Herbert is not just more physically talented but also wouldn’t have thrown those costly six picks. And you have a better shot of coming back from a deficit with Herbert than Stafford IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrantikRam Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Xenos said: I like Stafford a lot but if you put Herbert on the Rams, you guys would have beaten the Niners and Titans. Maybe even the Packers as well. Herbert is not just more physically talented but also wouldn’t have thrown those costly six picks. And you have a better shot of coming back from a deficit with Herbert than Stafford IMO. That is a WILD statement to make... https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/comeback.cgi?player=StafMa00 Stafford has been specializing in coming back from a deficit for years. How is he more physically talented? Not his arm surely? They're comparable there. Herbert has turned the ball over 13 times; Stafford 10. Stafford has three pick sixes, Herbert two, one for each bounced off a receivers hands So.... Edited December 20, 2021 by FrantikRam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 41 minutes ago, FrantikRam said: Oh it's not just rating. Stafford is better than Herbert almost across the board. Stafford was with the Detroit Lions. In his first year outside of Detroit, he's been a top 3 QB for the entire season, at times number 1. That data needs context. Also, again - if we're counting that data, have to account for Mahomes past data as well which means he's a FAR superior QB to Herbert. Herbert is good - top 10 for sure - but he's not (yet) as good as you're making him out to be, and that's okay. Do you really want me to do this? Do you really want me to list the rankings for Herbert vs Stafford vs Mahomes in about 16 different key metrics? Calling Herbert top 10 is an insult. He has established himself as a top 5 QB already. Only thing separating him is experience or the accolades. I assure you there is no gap in talent from him or any other QB walking the planet. The crazy thing is I'm not even being a homer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefs_5627 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said: The crazy thing is I'm not even being a homer. Ngl, since you've spent so much time dragging Mahomes every chance you got since he took over as the starter, it sure is nice to see you take some of your own "medicine". 😅 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 48 minutes ago, FrantikRam said: In what way is Herbert better than Stafford this year? It's not just passer rating. Stafford has just been better pretty much across the board. Adjusted comp% Herbert 9th Stafford 17th Turnover worthy play Herbert 1st (lowest) Stafford 17th QBR Herbert 3rd. Stafford 1st PAA Herbert 1st. Stafford 2nd EPA Herbert 1st. Stafford 6th Pass EPA Herbert 2nd. Stafford 3rd BAD THROW% Herbert 14.4% Stafford 18.5% ON TARGET Justin Herbert 81.3% Stafford 76.8% DYAR Herbert 4th. Stafford 2nd DVOA Herbert 6th. Stafford 4th EPA/play Herbert 5th. Stafford 2nd TD% Herbert 5th. Stafford 1st YDS per game Herbert 4th. Stafford 3rd PFF Herbert 3rd. Stafford 10th So in a career year, Stafford might be slightly playing better than Herbert in his 2nd year. Herbert is no question playing at a top 5 level. Considering #1 in drops by receivers and 2nd straight system and OC. That's pretty damn impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, Chiefs_5627 said: Ngl, since you've spent so much time dragging Mahomes every chance you got since he took over as the starter, it sure is nice to see you take some of your own "medicine". 😅 That wasn't even me. My out of country cousin had access to my account back then. 😬 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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