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Hypothetical for the 49ers


biggie.

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Let's say Jimmy G goes on an absolute tear and the 49ers win the SB with him as SBMVP. At this point he'd 1-1 in SBs along with his 31-14 record as the starter for SF. While he is not the flashiest QB, the 49ers regress horribly every time he's been out with injury.

If the 49ers do win the SB, can the 49ers seriously trade him away?

Edited by biggie.
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He's gone regardless of what happens I'm pretty sure. 

I will leave a small sliver of possibility just because you stated "jimmy G on a tear", meaning he actually did something besides hand the ball off and throw it 8 times like he did last time, but even in that situation I don't know that 4 games changes your evaluation of what he is all that much. 

If Jimmy G tearing it apart somehow increases the odds that he's going to be back, it should also increase his trade value. If it doesn't, you're putting too much emphasis on those 4 games. 

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One of the bigger issues is that financially, they just need to let him go to be honest. They have 32 players under contract right now...that's it. And they are projected to have about 12 million in space? There are a number of important players who need to be re-signed: 

  • Arden Key
  • Jaquiski Tartt
  • DJ Jones (this is huge)
  • Laken Tomlinson
  • Azeez Al-Shaair (RFA, but even on a tender that could be a few million more than he costs now)
  • K'Waun Williams will need to be re-signed or replaced

Bosa and Deebo are now eligible for contract extensions. This is definitely upfront money you want to start getting in there now while Trey is on the rookie deal. Those two alone are going to cost what....45 million or so a season? 

The team is missing first round picks this year and next plus a third this year. 

They are likely to make some additional moves to free up some space (possible restructure on AA, McG extension, 6/1 cut on Dee Ford) but these are moves that are likely done regardless of whether Jimmy stays or leaves and Jimmy still provides them with the most cap savings and generates a return on the investment. 

Then there are just other stuff you can consider...optically, it's not going to look ideal to use 3 first round picks + a third on a QB you're either sitting for a long time and potentially burning the entire rookie contract of (which would be the case if you restructure and extend Jimmy, for example). I don't think that a team has the balls to go the Phillip Rivers way anymore, especially if they gave up that kind of capital. 

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

99.99% sure that the answer is yes. Jimmy G is back in a 49er uniform next year would be one of the more shocking things I will have seen. 

That is the conventional wisdom that brought Trey Lance (instead of Mac Jones) to San Francisco and that still insists that 2021 was a banner year for QBs.  However, that was before Garoppolo had the year he had:  PFF:17th, DVOA:5th (yes, 5th!), Passing Yards:12th, QBR:14th, et cetera.  Whatever Jimmy G could prove by winning Super Bowl LVI has already been demonstrated multiple times in 2021.

When the chips were down in Week #17 Kyle Shanahan started [an injured] Jimmy Garoppolo over [a healthy] Trey Lance.  I expect the same choice to be made next year.  That said, after the 2021 draft nothing would surprise me.

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2 hours ago, biggie. said:

Let's say Jimmy G goes on an absolute tear and the 49ers win the SB with him as SBMVP. At this point he'd 1-1 in SBs along with his 31-14 record as the starter for SF. While he is not the flashiest QB, the 49ers regress horribly every time he's been out with injury.

If the 49ers do win the SB, can the 49ers seriously trade him away?

If you want my honest opinion? It'd feel a lot like the Nick Foles question a few years ago even though the circumstances are a bit different. Jimmy is what he is, he's a low ceiling guy who might not lose you the game, but he'll never win you the game.

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57 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

That is the conventional wisdom that brought Trey Lance (instead of Mac Jones) to San Francisco and that still insists that 2021 was a banner year for QBs.  However, that was before Garoppolo had the year he had:  PFF:17th, DVOA:5th (yes, 5th!), Passing Yards:12th, QBR:14th, et cetera.  Whatever Jimmy G could prove by winning Super Bowl LVI has already been demonstrated multiple times in 2021.

When the chips were down in Week #17 Kyle Shanahan started [an injured] Jimmy Garoppolo over [a healthy] Trey Lance.  I expect the same choice to be made next year.  That said, after the 2021 draft nothing would surprise me.

The wisdom that brought Trey Lance to the 49ers is the belief that Trey lance is a guy who can be a top 5 QB in the NFL. 

Jimmy's year was largely middle of the pack. He's a fine starting QB. That's why he's going to have trade value this off season despite people on this site thinking he's not very good. 

They need the money, they need the assets that jettisoning him will provide. 

There has never been an indication all year that the 49ers wanted to do anything at QB outside of precisely what they have done. As much as I can despise the tool, Lombardi isn't wrong about that. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Danger said:

If you want my honest opinion? It'd feel a lot like the Nick Foles question a few years ago even though the circumstances are a bit different. Jimmy is what he is, he's a low ceiling guy who might not lose you the game, but he'll never win you the game.

Oh, he'll lose you a game LOL 

But again...he's not bad. He's fine. 

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1 hour ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

49ers need to pay Deebo and Bosa. Lance will be entering year 2 on his rookie contract that the 49ers gave up three first rounders for. He's gone. Even if he wins Super Bowl MVP. 

And it's not a knock on Jimmy. They charted their course...deviating from that at this juncture just doesn't really help anyone. 

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It's very unlikely but if Jimmy G actually wins you 3 straight road playoff games against Dallas, Green Bay and Tampa Bay/Los Angeles/Arizona and then the Super Bowl it's the perfect chance to sell high on him and get a big return. Not to keep him.

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39 minutes ago, Danger said:

If you want my honest opinion? It'd feel a lot like the Nick Foles question a few years ago even though the circumstances are a bit different. Jimmy is what he is, he's a low ceiling guy who might not lose you the game, but he'll never win you the game.

He'll win you the game after he flubs up in the first half. 

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Quote

Trey lance is a guy they believe can be a top 5 QB in the NFL.

     Believed.  Past tense.  

     It is possible that Kyle Shanahan has concluded that by September Trey Lance won't be in a class with Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert.  Or that this expectation might have been unrealistic for a QB passed up by Jacksonville and the Jets.  Or that Kyle could have sat and taken either Trey Lance or Mac Jones.  

     If we learned anything from the San Fran circus last year it is that nothing the inscrutable Kyle Shanahan or John Lynch say will tip their hand.  What matters is their actions, none of which suggest confidence in Trey Lance as an upgrade on Jimmy Garoppolo.

Quote

     That's why he's going to have trade value this off season despite people on this site thinking he's not very good.

     Garoppolo has much more value in San Francisco than anywhere else.  Especially if Trey Lance isn't the second coming of Joe Montana.

Quote

They need the money, they need the assets that jettisoning him will provide.

     Everyone needs money.  The raised cap limit should get them by.

Quote

There has never been an indication all year that the 49ers wanted to do anything at QB outside of precisely what they have done.

      Again, we wouldn't expect any such indication.  They just kept playing their best QB.

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