Forge Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 36 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said: Believed. Past tense. It is possible that Kyle Shanahan has concluded that by September Trey Lance won't be in a class with Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert. Or that this expectation might have been unrealistic for a QB passed up by Jacksonville and the Jets. Or that Kyle could have sat and taken either Trey Lance or Mac Jones. If we learned anything from the San Fran circus last year it is that nothing the inscrutable Kyle Shanahan or John Lynch say will tip their hand. What matters is their actions, none of which suggest confidence in Trey Lance as an upgrade on Jimmy Garoppolo. I mean, their intention has always been exactly what they've done. Somehow you know they know longer believe in Trey Lance? Interesting. Were you saying this about the chiefs and mahomes when he sat his rookie year? It's such a weird thing to be like "hey, they are doing exactly what they have basically always indicated they would do, but I'm going to interpret that to mean that they just don't have high hopes for Lance any more because they keep going back to Jimmy.... Even if thats exactly what they told us they would do". They also inquired in every qb available this off season, from teddy b to Carson Wentz to Sam Darnold to Matt Stafford. Then used three first round picks to move up and trade for a qb. They have refused to extend or restructure him to keep maximum flexibility to get away. Their actions show that they haven't loved Jimmy g as a long term option for a while. 36 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said: Everyone needs money. The raised cap limit should get them by. I'm already accounting for the increased cap limit in my previous comments. That's at the 208 million dollar cap. So no, it won't get them by... And no, not every team really "needs" more cap space 36 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said: Garoppolo has much more value in San Francisco than anywhere else. Especially if Trey Lance isn't the second coming of Joe Montana. They are going to trade Jimmy g and roll with Lance and find out what he is. Jimmy will have plenty of value to whomever trades for him 36 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said: Again, we wouldn't expect any such indication. They just kept playing their best QB. Just like the chiefs did with Smith. Sometimes, coaches aren't in a hurry to play a rookie QB if they have a competent guy in place 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr A W Niloc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Forge said: Their actions show that they haven't loved Jimmy g long term for a while. Past tense, yes. On draft day, 2021, Garoppolo was rated 28th among QBs, 41st in FPPG, with an Average Draft Position of 278, 36th among QBs. Why would anyone have loved him? Flash forward to the present, when Jimmy is in the top 16 in almost every category. Now the question is: Why would anyone not love him? In the end, the homers will say that Trey Lance forces Jimmy to play at the top of his game. Whatever floats their boats. Quote Were you saying this about the chiefs and mahomes when he sat his rookie year? Having seen Mahomes I wondered why he wasn't taken #1 and I considered his rookie year a terrible waste of talent. What else could a person think? No doubt that is why franchises no longer sit their highly drafted rookie QB if they think he has that kind of talent. Especially when their veteran QB is banged up. Discounting his media comments, what has Kyle Shanahan done since September to suggest he considers Trey Lance to be an upgrade on Jimmy Garoppolo? Edited January 15, 2022 by Dr A W Niloc Removed duplication Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said: That is the conventional wisdom that brought Trey Lance (instead of Mac Jones) to San Francisco and that still insists that 2021 was a banner year for QBs. However, that was before Garoppolo had the year he had: PFF:17th, DVOA:5th (yes, 5th!), Passing Yards:12th, QBR:14th, et cetera. Whatever Jimmy G could prove by winning Super Bowl LVI has already been demonstrated multiple times in 2021. When the chips were down in Week #17 Kyle Shanahan started [an injured] Jimmy Garoppolo over [a healthy] Trey Lance. I expect the same choice to be made next year. That said, after the 2021 draft nothing would surprise me. Why do you share these stats like they are impressive? They are laughably average. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 38 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said: Past tense, yes. On draft day, 2021, Garoppolo was rated 28th among QBs, 41st in FPPG, with an Average Draft Position of 278, 36th among QBs. Why would anyone have loved him? Flash forward to the present, when Jimmy is in the top 16 in almost every category. Now the question is: Why would anyone not love him? In the end, the homers will say that Trey Lance forces Jimmy to play at the top of his game. Whatever floats their boats. Sweet... He's a middle of the pack starter. The kind of guy you need to desperately keep around after searching every avenue to move on from him. Jimmy isn't playing at the top of his game. This is his game. This year is largely interchangeable with his 2019 season. I do think he's having a slightly better year with added context, but I think the variances would be within a reasonable accepted tolerance of a similar categorical tier. The fact that you bring up fantasy points... Why would anyone not love him? Yeah, he's really well regarded around these parts for sure. They got offered a third at the trade deadline. But if that's the case, I willexpect offers of multiple first round picks from teams like Pitt, Washington and the Giants this season. 38 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said: What else could a person think? There are many people who think sitting helps. I'm not one of them generally (situation specific, to be sure), but they certainly do exist. There were many people on this very forum who thought Lance needed to sit regardless...I know because before the draft I asked specifically if people were worried about having to sit him for another year, meaning he'd be sitting two years after sitting out most of his college season 38 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said: No doubt that is why franchises no longer sit their highly drafted rookie QB if they think he has that kind of talent. It's been 5 years. How many highly drafted QBs have gone to a situation where there was a competent or better QB ahead of them? I'd say three... Mahomes / Smith, Love / Rodgers, Lance / Jimmy. So seems to me teams are willing to sit their highly drafted guys if the guy ahead of them is pretty good. 38 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said: Discounting his media comments, what has Kyle Shanahan done since September to suggest he considers Trey Lance to be an upgrade on Jimmy Garoppolo? He doesn't think Trey Lance is an upgrade on Jimmy... This year. But maybe he didn't draft Trey for this year? Maybe Trey was drafted as a long term plan, I dunno. Crazy idea. I feel like maybe it's not crazy to think the average starting nfl QB is currently better than the kid who played one year of fcs football at age 19 and missed pretty much an entire year (and yeah, I still would have played Lance, but I at least understood why they played Jimmy) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, BayRaider said: Why do you share these stats like they are impressive? They are laughably average. You can have him for 3 firsts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 (edited) 49ers are going to need all the picks they can get anyway after trading away essentially three first round picks. If Jimmy can fetch them a second round pick alone that would be remarkable given his injury history. Sam Bradford went for a first way back when didn't he? I can't remember the context behind that situation financially, but Jimmy already has had a more successful career. And Bradford was just as brittle as Jimmy is. Edited January 15, 2022 by TecmoSuperJoe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I’d argue that they’d excitedly trade him for a bigger haul than they would have had. They traded 3 1sts for Lantz and this would help recoup those picks and free up cap space they need to pay dudes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingsrule Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said: 49ers are going to need all the picks they can get anyway after trading away essentially three first round picks. If Jimmy can fetch them a second round pick alone that would be remarkable given his injury history. Sam Bradford went for a first way back when didn't he? I can't remember the context behind that situation financially, but Jimmy already has had a more successful career. And Bradford was just as brittle as Jimmy is. Bradford was traded right at the start of the season after Teddy’s knee was wrecked in practice. It was a desperate move (I think it was the first year in US Bank Stadium too so there was an obvious desire to have a competent team that year). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 (edited) A raw rookie with an insane ceiling isn't going to help teams win games in their rookie year. A mediocre vet with a limited ceiling, but who knows how to manage a team's O, is far more likely to win games for that year. Doesn't mean he's the answer the following year. The 2 above statements aren't mutually exclusive. I don't think for a moment the 2022 plan has changed, nor has 2021 gone differently than expected. Edited January 15, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 15 hours ago, Forge said: 99.99% sure that the answer is yes. Jimmy G is back in a 49er uniform next year would be one of the more shocking things I will have seen. Agreed. You don't deal 2 future FRPs to bury your #3 overall pick on the depth chart for multiple years. Trey Lance will be the starting QB of the '22 49ers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr A W Niloc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 hours ago, Forge said: Sweet... He's a middle of the pack starter. The kind of guy you need to desperately keep around after searching every avenue to move on from him. I agree with "desperately keep around" because we're talking about there being at most 15 people on the planet better than an average starter and those 15 are taken. This is especially true if the team in question has more talent at the other positions than any other team. Quote The fact that you bring up fantasy points... Many people assess QBs in part by yards gained and touchdowns scored, for which Fantasy Points are shorthand. Quote Why would anyone not love him? Yeah, he's really well regarded around these parts for sure. Some may not be distinguishing the current from the past. Some seem to think that only hyped QBs can develop. Quote They got offered a third at the trade deadline. Sounds about right. No one is suggesting Garoppolo will be as good elsewhere. Quote But if that's the case, I will expect offers of multiple first round picks from teams like Pitt, Washington and the Giants this season. Yeah, no. Guided by The Greater Fool Theory I can barely imagine Washington offering as much as one first. Quote There are many people who think sitting helps. If the GM isn't intending to start a QB in the first or second year they can and should acquire them much later than third overall (e.g. Kyle Trask at #64, Tom Brady at #199). That isn't just the modern trend. Quote How many highly drafted QBs have gone to a situation where there was a competent or better QB ahead of them? I'd say three... Mahomes / Smith, Love / Rodgers, Lance / Jimmy. So seems to me teams are willing to sit their highly drafted guys if the guy ahead of them is pretty good. I agree that sitting Mahomes for a year was a mistake; he was drafted to be a starter. Love was a wasted pick who doesn't have anywhere near the talent of a Mahomes or a Rodgers. As for Trey's talent, we'll see, but only if and when Kyle Shanahan is desperate. If he lets Garoppolo go he makes himself desperate. Taking Lance at #3 and dropping Garoppolo may be the difference between accident and suicide. Quote He doesn't think Trey Lance is an upgrade on Jimmy... This year. But maybe he didn't draft Trey for this year? Maybe Trey was drafted as a long term plan, I dunno. Crazy idea. The word "crazy" works for me, as would "premature", "quaint", and "silly". For what it's worth, I didn't hear anyone mentioning a one or two year wait--or stats, for that matter--while shilling for Lance at #3. I certainly didn't hear anyone imply that Trey Lance wouldn't be an immediate and profound improvement over Garoppolo. Narratives change. Quote I at least understood why they played Jimmy. Hold that thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Sitting Mahomes was not a mistake. The whole premise is saying that Andy Reid has no idea how to manage QBs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Sometimes I think this is all a plot by @ET80 and @MWil23 to see how long and how far it goes before I go insane 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Sitting a QB is not unusual or dumb or shows the QB is not it. Trey Lance simply was not ready to be a starter and was sitting therefore. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Forge said: Sometimes I think this is all a plot by @ET80 and @MWil23 to see how long and how far it goes before I go insane *Do I seem like the kind of guy who has a plan…Joker gif* 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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