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Divisional Round GDT - Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers


J-ALL-DAY

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8 minutes ago, Forge said:

Yeah, but we score 2/3. 4/4 is a bit of an outlier in a general sense. 

Sure, no one is going to be 100% effective over a season, so I think that's an outlier for any team. According to what I could find, we are 17 spots ahead of GB in offensive RZ efficiency, and 12 spots ahead of them in defensive RZ efficiency, which I think might have been a bigger gap if we had been getting the play out of our defense that we are getting now. Obviously they are getting players back too, but I think those numbers are reasons we are a tough team to beat. 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-red-zone-scoring-pct

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19 minutes ago, GW21 said:

Yeah I agree we can't just go off the last game, but us going 4-4 in the RZ isn't all that surprising and is a part of our team makeup. Aren't we the number 1 team in the NFL in RZ efficiency this year? We can't discount that either. 

We are great in the RZ but look at last week against Dallas. Drive it to the Dallas 30-35 yard line and end up kicking three FGs. That game we were just getting TDs on any drive we got it around that area. 

But our team is much better right now. We didn't even look good in our two wins before that game to start the season. The Eagles game was UGLY on the offensive side. We have been a top 5 offense ever since. 

Just have to take advantage of our opportunities and stay even in the turnover battle. 

 Warner/Azeez/Greenlaw have to stop those quick hitters and screens before they get going.  

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1 minute ago, GW21 said:

Sure, no one is going to be 100% effective over a season, so I think that's an outlier for any team. According to what I could find, we are 17 spots ahead of GB in offensive RZ efficiency, and 12 spots ahead of them in defensive RZ efficiency, which I think might have been a bigger gap if we had been getting the play out of our defense that we are getting now. Obviously they are getting players back too, but I think those numbers are reasons we are a tough team to beat. 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-red-zone-scoring-pct

We are also 13th in points per game and points per drive. Green Bay is 10th in ppg but 3rd in points per drive (they play at a very slow pace). 

Just means we tend to screw up before we hit the red zone

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1 minute ago, Forge said:

We are also 13th in points per game and points per drive. Green Bay is 10th in ppg but 3rd in points per drive (they play at a very slow pace). 

Just means we tend to screw up before we hit the red zone

Definitely need to avoid that lol. That is what I think sinks us if we do end up losing. Jimmy is the biggest wildcard in this game. I'm hoping we don't have to put the ball in his hands a ton and our running game and defense can carry this team. 

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47 minutes ago, Forge said:

Yeah, but we score 2/3. 4/4 is a bit of an outlier in a general sense. 

Well even if we get FG instead of a TD out of one of those drives, that's still a one score defeat. We had no business having a chance to win that game. It's testament to how truly great we could be if we could somehow manage to get out of our own way as a collective.

No one has been a bigger pessimist than me regarding this year's team and its chances of post-season glory. BUT this is a match-up that highlights our strengths versus their weaknesses, much like the Rams. Doesn't mean we'll win. But that has mostly to do with AR12 being too great to really quantify. 

 

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

We are also 13th in points per game and points per drive. Green Bay is 10th in ppg but 3rd in points per drive (they play at a very slow pace). 

Just means we tend to screw up before we hit the red zone

Bingo! See last week as a perfect example of that. But let's see if GB can stop this run game, especially the stretch runs. We haven't lost a game since Deebo got involved in the running game with Mitchell on the field. It's mainly due to averaging over 150+ rushing yards. 

It is done in different ways, but tell me this team does not have a lot of similarities to the 2011 49ers team? 

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38 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

Well even if we get FG instead of a TD out of one of those drives, that's still a one score defeat. We had no business having a chance to win that game. It's testament to how truly great we could be if we could somehow manage to get out of our own way as a collective.

No one has been a bigger pessimist than me regarding this year's team and its chances of post-season glory. BUT this is a match-up that highlights our strengths versus their weaknesses, much like the Rams. Doesn't mean we'll win. But that has mostly to do with AR12 being too great to really quantify. 

 

The problem is that you can't just arbitrarily decide to replace one with the other. 

In 4 trips, we are generally scoring 2-3 touchdowns out of those 4 (statistically speaking). What if the one we missed was the 4th down conversion at the end of the half and we went into halftime shut out? The entire complexion of the game is different. So you can't just say, "oh, lets take away a touchdown and give a field goal". 

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10 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Bingo! See last week as a perfect example of that. But let's see if GB can stop this run game, especially the stretch runs. We haven't lost a game since Deebo got involved in the running game with Mitchell on the field. It's mainly due to averaging over 150+ rushing yards. 

It is done in different ways, but tell me this team does not have a lot of similarities to the 2011 49ers team? 

I trusted Alex more than I trust Jimmy, but yeah, I do think it's quite similar. 

Jimmy takes care of the ball and plays competently, we will be in the game. No doubt about that. What I doubt are Jimmy's chances of doing that. 

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Just now, Forge said:

I trusted Alex more than I trust Jimmy, but yeah, I do think it's quite similar. 

Jimmy takes care of the ball and plays competently, we will be in the game. No doubt about that. What I doubt are Jimmy's chances of doing that. 

Um, I don't know about that to be honest. I trusted Alex not to make as many mistakes as Jimmy, but I trust Jimmy to be able to go out and win the game in the 4th quarter. Alex was so awesome in the 4th quarter of the NO game, but that was a huge shocker because no one expected him to do that. As volatile as Jimmy is, you KNOW he can go out and win you a game with some clutch drives. Basically, if we have three chances to win it at the end like we did against the Giants, I expect Jimmy to be able to get it done.....I also knew if we were up 7 or 10, that Alex was not going to put it in harms way and make the opposing team EARN it.

I have a good feeling about this game....So good that my confidence meter from the Cowboys game to the Packers game moved up from a 5 to 6....So really, not THAT great of a feeling but I trust the boys to pull it off at the end! 

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2 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Um, I don't know about that to be honest. I trusted Alex not to make as many mistakes as Jimmy, but I trust Jimmy to be able to go out and win the game in the 4th quarter. Alex was so awesome in the 4th quarter of the NO game, but that was a huge shocker because no one expected him to do that. As volatile as Jimmy is, you KNOW he can go out and win you a game with some clutch drives. Basically, if we have three chances to win it at the end like we did against the Giants, I expect Jimmy to be able to get it done.....I also knew if we were up 7 or 10, that Alex was not going to put it in harms way and make the opposing team EARN it.

 

I don't have that feeling about Jimmy at all in the playoffs.  That NO game was Alex's first. We are 4 games into Jimmy's postseason career and he's awful. He hasn't earned that faith yet. So I have no faith in JImmy being able to do anything in the playoffs right now (and especially not injured Jimmy). Seems like the lights are too bright for Jimmy in the playoffs right now. 

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Just now, Forge said:

I don't have that feeling about Jimmy at all in the playoffs.  That NO game was Alex's first. We are 4 games into Jimmy's postseason career and he's awful. He hasn't earned that faith yet. So I have no faith in JImmy being able to do anything in the playoffs right now (and especially not injured Jimmy). Seems like the lights are too bright for Jimmy in the playoffs right now. 

I mean Jimmy has only been put in that position once and wasn't able to come through vs KC.

Nah, don't agree about the lights being too bright. This dude isn't one of those guys that lets pressure get to him. He's just an average QB and the competition gets better in the playoffs. Jimmy just needs to play better but he's one of the most IDGAF type of QBs in the history lol. If he can't get it done, it's because he's just not good enough not because he is pressing too hard because of pressure. 

If we need a late score, I will definitely be optimistic that he can get it done....As he usually does. 

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1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I mean Jimmy has only been put in that position once and wasn't able to come through vs KC.

Nah, don't agree about the lights being too bright. This dude isn't one of those guys that lets pressure get to him. He's just an average QB and the competition gets better in the playoffs. Jimmy just needs to play better but he's one of the most IDGAF type of QBs in the history lol. If he can't get it done, it's because he's just not good enough not because he is pressing too hard because of pressure. 

If we need a late score, I will definitely be optimistic that he can get it done....As he usually does. 

He's not doing it in the playoffs. 

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Just now, Forge said:

He's not doing it in the playoffs. 

Can we please use some context? Lol

Was not needed to throw the ball vs Minny/GB in the 4th quarter. That's mainly off the Chiefs game where he was like 3-11 or something stupid with a INT. And then obviously against Dallas he threw that INT.

So nah, those stats are misleading as hell. 

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