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2022 draft talk


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Top Free Agents to replace - 

- WR Chris Godwin

- QB Tom Brady (retirement)

- CB Carlton Davis 

- SS Jordan Whitehead

- G Alex Cappa

- C Ryan Jensen

- TE Rob Gronkowski

- RB's Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette.

- DL William Gholston and Ndamakung Suh 

My analysis: With a potential 27.7MM of cap Space , this is going to get rough. Having only what - 6 picks in the upcoming draft , not a lot of cap space nor picks to replace a lot of losses here. My best guess is to rip up Mike Evans current deal and give him a new contract thats backloaded over years 2-3-4 until we get out from under Brady, Gronk, David, and Fournettes cap hit. Hopefully free up an additional 4-5 million with a new deal from Evans 

Resign Cam Brate - new contract that turns his 6 mm cap hit to a 2 year - 7mm fully guranteed contract. save 3mm. 

As for the free agents: going into the draft we need to have atleast one of Cappa or Jensen signed; Gholston brought back and Whitehead signed. 

I think if Godwin walks, it'll be due to the QB situation. He may not want to stay with a rookie QB or a potential Gabbart/Trask QB battle when he can go elsewhere - say Philly since he is from the Northeast States. 

Carlton Davis - I can live with us slapping the tag on him but i'm also not a fan of seeing him paid 17MM. He's not worth that money in my opinion and he's not a lockdown CB. 

Between Cappa and Jensen, i feel like i'm taking the younger guy with upside and is cheaper. Center can be filled in the draft to compete with Robert Hainsley. Tender RFA Aaron Stinney and move forward with the OL. 

At RB - let go of both FA RB's. While i think it's a mistake how BA treated Ronald Jones who basically almost had a 1000 yard seasin through 12 games 2020 and still managed to average almost 5YPC in 2021 - It's not going to happen. Fournette is going to look to get paid and as you've seen - its' stupid to pay big $$ to a back. 

My guess would be to Roll with Vaughn and sign a Free Agent at a min - Marlon Mack comes to mind. Target a RB in rounds 2 and 3. 

Then finally : What do you do about QB? Do you resign Blaine Gabbart and roll with a Trask/Gabbart TC? It'll allow you to pocket the draft into building up WR, RB, and DB in the first 3 rounds. Do you pursue other Free Agent QB's and dial back the offense? (something BA probably wont do). Mitch Tribusky is interesting bc he looked like a different QB in preseason under Dabol , but he might be signing with NYG and compete for the job there since he knows the offense. Marcus Mariotta? I was a fan of his but he can't even stay healthy on the practice field back in Vegas. Look for him to stay in LV or sign with the Commanders. 

Do we trade for a QB? Well - those guys are going to cost money and all of it. Which would wipe out any plan to sign the majority of our own guys plus build depth in FA. 

Russell Wilson is probably the only QB i'd give up multiple first rounders for. But at 33 and his style of play - is he really a guy that can play effectively over the next 5-6 years? Will he actually take less in order to keep core players and build out a consistent contender? 

Jimmy Garoppolo: Can't question how SF is a playoff team when he starts. But again - his contract doesn't work and he doesn't fit this offense. I also don't want a guy who's always hurt bc with Jimmy G - you have to invest in a quality back up bc it's not if, but when he gets hurt. His best fit is really in Denver with the type of WCO they'll run but they're going to be targeting Rodgers. I can see Pittsburgh making a run at Garropolo. 

Deshaun Watson? Pass. Big contract. 3 firsts - 2 seconds are reportedly the asking price. Upcoming suspension and/or jail time. Not worth 40mm a year nor 2 first round picks. Pass. 

Kyler Murray? 3 straight second half collapses in his first three seasons. Will cost the same draft compensation to acquire Watson. Reportedly wants 45-50MM before ever winning a playoff game let alone, his play falling off in the 2nd half of each of his 3 seasons. Still struggles to find throwing lanes consistently from the pocket. Not worth the asking price. 

Aaron Rodgers? If Brady had some issues with BA, can you imagine Aaron Rodgers? Plus Rodgers is not comfortable outside a WCO. He would probably only come to Tampa if BA wasn't the coach. His salary is an issue plus it'll also cost them a couple premium draft picks for a QB who's spending his second straight offseason pondering retirement - which means its coming soon. Not worth the price. 


I think when it comes to QB - the bucs need to evaluate Trask and sign a vet. Gabbart, sadly, might be the best option due to comfort in BA's scheme and to be fair when he had to play  - He looked much better in it than he ever did with Jacksonville, SF, or Tennessee when having to start. The upside? Gabbart can control the offense. The downside - we suck offensively but may have a shot of Bryce Young in 2023. 

When it comes to this years draft - i am a fan of 3 guys : Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell. I think all 3 have all traits necessary to be franchise guys. Pickett has bust written all over him and Willis has no vision or awareness, just athleticism and a rocket arm. 

Ridder reminds me of a developed passer in the comparsions to Dak Prescott. He's not a special prospect but hes got a strong and accurate arm and can read the field effectively. Corral just plays fast and has excellent vision. I feel like he's similar to Kyler murray but also goes through progressions similar to Drew Brees. I like that he was coached by Lane Kiffin. In my eyes he's QB 1. 

Howell is the prime QB prospect who suffered the depleted roster from 2020. Howell is a good athlete, can stand in the pocket and deliver the ball accurately to all levels of the field and has a rocket. I think he's underrated and being overlooked similar to how Justin Herbert was in 2020. Is he the same guy as Justin Herbert? No, but both came from programs with limited talent and coaching staffs that didn't really show case their strengths. Herbert looks like a completely different player than he was at Oregon. I can see Howell having a same type of path as a better NFL QB than college.  


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Some options at #27: Pending on Free Agency - regardless of keeping Davis or Whitehead, CB is going to be a need. Davis is most likely to be franchised if retained and both Dean and Bunting will not be back in 2023. My projection is Davis is tagged and Chris Godwin is will be wearing a new uniform next year. 

Top Needs going into the draft: 

1a: QB - It's expected the Bucs will test the waters in the trade market but won't be big players due to Cap space and draft capital vs. opposing teams. In all reality - it really looks like Blaine Gabbert and/or Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Trask will be wearing a buc uniform going into the draft. 

Options in round 1 and 2: 

- QB Matt Corral : My QB 1. Excellent vision, arm talent and accuracy. Matured over the last 2 years at Ole Miss. Should be the first QB off the board but internally scouts have reservations. 

- QB Sam Howell : Honestly, his upside is Justin Herbert Level, just not as tall. Big arm, good build and athleticism and accurate. Don't get the Baker Mayfield comparisons as the only thing they compare in is their both under 6'2 with similar builds. Howell is better in all other aspects of the game. I'd take him at 27. 

Chances of picking a QB in either rounds: Slim to none. Sadly, I would take Howell and i don't agree that Trask is above every QB in this class. 

1B: WR - Godwin is gone in my opinion. Just going to be too difficult to pay both him and Evans and I'd be hesitant to give him a massive #1 deal coming off a significant injury in each of the last 3 years. 

Options in rounds 1-3: 

- WR Treylan Burks: Fits the mold of a potential #1 WR. I think he gets drafted higher than his current 3rd tier of the first round projection. Can play inside and out. 

- Jahan Dotson: Another stud I like that can play outside and inside. Excellent route runner and similar to Godwin, has underrated speed coming out. His hands are fantastic. I would easily pick him at 27 even though he's slotted for round 2. 

- WR Chris Olave: his route running and speed will get him into the back end of round 1 and early 2nd. I love his ability to get open and add the deep threat. But i'm not sure he fills the roll of what godwin did playing both inside and out. 

- WR Jameson Williams: I mean he really has no business being discussed this late but easily could go higher to a team with multiple first round picks and can weight a few months for him to be ready. 

- WR George Pickens: Torn ACL in the spring 21 and still ended up playing well when he became available. He could be a steal in round 2-3. 

- WR Alec Pierce : excellent route running and speed and hands. Another round 2 option who can play inside and out. 


This will be addressed early rounds 1-2. I think Burks is the pick if he's available at 27. Alec Pierce round 2 if we go corner/edge in round 1. 

1C: Cornerback: I am not the biggest Carlton Davis fan nor Bunting. I think Dean is the only guy i'd extend and probably do it now at his projected salary /value/performance of 12 million a year. Davis will be back and this is Buntings' last year. Corner takes a year or so to adjust. (See Trevon Diggs and AJ Terrell who boomed in year 2). 


- CB Sauce Gardner : Dumb of me to put him in options at 27 but he's a boss. Potential Jaire Alexander who can lock down the one side of the field and still be a turnover machine. 

- CB Trent McDuffie: Another CB that could be there in the 20's. Physical CB that can lock down one side of the field. 

- CB Kaiir Elam: I'm not a fan of Elam this high. Similar to Davis, he lacks the athleticism and speed to match up with top WR's only Elam is less physical than Davis. Doesn't fit in Bowles scheme. 

- CB Kyler Gordon: Could be an option in day 2 - if we lose Davis he can step in the nickel. McDuffie's #2 - Washington producing DB's . 

- CB Jaylin Armour Davis: Solid corner who can fill in the slot immediately. didn't hear his name called much from a negative perspective. round 3 option 

- CB Tariq Casto-Fields : As a Penn Stater, I see more potential in players bc Franklin can recruit talent. Field's has upside and is a perfect player in round 3 here. 

My Take: 

- I think we take a flyer on Fields in round 3. 


Other top needs: 

- DL: I expect Gholson to re-sign with the Bucs and Noche's to get a bigger Role. Expect Patrick O'Connor to be re-signed as well. Unless Jordan Davis falls to 27, I don;t see a reason to reach for a DL in a weak class. Free Agency - we can fill some voids and really prioritize depth. Maybe add a tackle where needed on day 3. 

- interior OL : I see Cappa back. Hainsley will probably compete for the Center position. However, i would add another depth piece. Day 3 seems fitting. 

- RB: Again, i don't see Jones or Fournette back. Maybe Lenny if his free agency expectations aren't fulfilled. I think this is filled in the draft and they sign one back in FA at a min. 

- TE: I see Brate coming back at a restructured deal again. Maybe OJ howard comes back on a 1 year deal if he gets no looks in FA. I don't see the point in reaching here. 


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10 hours ago, bucsfan333 said:

There are also clips of him standing around on running plays. That's not gonna fly with us.

Maybe, I don't think Saban has gone soft.  Clips of Vea at UW of him basically doing nothing on plays.  Remember  Evans at A & M was knocked because he only lined up on the right side of the line.  

Williams is this year's Jaelan Phillips with more current injury history and lacking character concerns.  I don't think he falls to 27, but if he does that's top 10 talent sitting there.

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