49ers offseason 2022

[757-NINER]

2 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Buckner was a defensive player, not Kyle's guy. I don't think folks realize just how much Kyle loves Deebo and values him. He's not going to let him go. From Kittle to Juice to Trent, when it comes to offensive studs, Kyle will do everything in his power to keep them. 

And all this talk of Kyle scheming WRs open, no one has produced like Deebo. It's okay to admit that Deebo is just different from the rest. The offense will not be the exact same with Lance adding more of a deep threat to the offense opposed to Jimmy where YAC was more important....But YAC is still going to be a big part of this offense, especially with the receivers we have. 

If one wants to question Deebo's injury history, then that is totally fair. Stayed healthy in years 1 and 3, but was hurt in year 2 and in college....The same applies to Bosa though...Damn near the same thing. So are we also against paying him 30-31M per year? Should we look to trade him? 

Comparing a elite pass-rushers to a top tier WR is apples and oranges. The guy who affects the oppsing team's QB will win out EVERY time, all things comparable. 

And Deebo's productivity happens to coincide with Jimmy's health and style of play. The type of QB Jimmy was/is is right inline of where Deebo operated best as a receiver, same with Kittle. So their numbers should refelct as much. A guy like Ayuik, who is more skilled and diverse WR than Deebo, is limited with a QB like Jimmy, whose allergic to throwing down the field and outside the numbers. The person throwing you the ball matters in most cases. 

I'm not saying Deebo isn't great. He's our most important offensive weapon and is one of the most unique players in the league. BUT he's not some force of nature that this offense can't afford to lose or will be doomed. Sure it would be hard to replicate all he can do but I would trust Shanny can and would do just that. I definitely don't want to lose him. But I wouldn't be distraught over the thought of our offense w/o him given Lance's presence moving forward.

 

Edited April 13, 2022 by 757-NINER

[Forge]

1 hour ago, adamq said:

If he's healthy then I don't see why not. Nearly all of our best players have had their fair share of injury problems, why not invest in one more!

There are some pretty outlier-ish things in his production last year. 4 yard increase in his yards per catch is notable. His yards after the catch given his depth of target is waaaaaaaaay out of whack if we are being honest. The expectation should be that it regresses at least somewhat. I don't think that part of his game is sustainable at the level he had last year. I just don't know what the difference is (this is also something to monitor with Chase in Cincinnati). In 2020, his yards after the catch made sense because his average depth of target was seriously 2 yards. 

The top of the league for receivers in yards after catch per reception given a reasonable receiver depth of target is usually 7-8. Every now and again, a receiver will hit over 8, but it's pretty rare for receivers with volume and typically something that falls back to earth.

Deebo was 10 last year lol.  He was putting up running back yards after the catch numbers while playing receiver with an average depth of target 8 yards down the field. He was a full 2 yards of ahead of Chase. I just don't find that sustainable given that it's basically unprecedented in the modern era. AJ Brown had a year of nearly 9, he's considered a great talent after the catch as well and watched his average drop to 6 in 2020 and only 3 the year after (though we can largely throw that out given the injury issues, I think).  CeeDee Lamb was the only receiver who broke as many tackles per reception as Deebo last year and he averaged nearly half as many yards after the catch lol. 

Honestly, if you want a great example of what I'm talking about, look at Kittle. He also had a YAC one year of 10...the ADOT was a little lower (common for Tight Ends) and since then has dropped 3-4 yards in each of the subsequent years. I don't thikn that Deebo will drop that far, but I expect a drop of 1-2 yards for sure. 

Then there is a question on how often we are going to continue to use him out of the backfield. He had 60 carries last year and we really didn't start working that in until week 9 - 10. Are we really going to give him 100 carries over an entire season? Because that's insanity to me. There's no way I want to do that if we are paying him 25 million a year. Or are we going to give him 50-60 carries again but stretch it out over 17 games? Because that's more tenable, but I'm curious what that does to his rushing because then you're subjecting yourself to some serious randomness game to game. If we gave him 3 carries a week for 6 weeks and he had only one good carry, I wouldn't be that surprised. Just as I wouldn't if we gave him 3 carries a week for 6 weeks and he somehow managed to break off 4 40 yard touchdown runs lol. 

The offense will change somewhat, we know that. Will it impact Deebo? I don't know. Certainly didn't in a small sample with Lance last year. I'll trust Shanny and company to have a better understanding of how the offense works and will continue to work in that regard. IF they are going to pay Deebo 25M, I would assume that they will continue to make sure he's a focal point of the offense lol 

Now just because I expect regression in that regard doesn't mean that I feel he's not worth the money. I mean, if he regresses in YAC but is still a 1500 YFS guy? Still worth it. Am I positive he is that? No, but I think that's a reasonable projection as well. i have no problem whatsoever on 25M AAV. My focus is 100% more on the guaranteed money. I don't want to be tied to him for 4 years because of the structure. He worries me too much for that. I'd prefer a top dollar 2 year deal (so 50M practical guarantees or so). 

Deebo does hit a few of the "contract red flags", and I think it's important to note that. 

I don't expect us to move him, and I certainly don't want to move him. But I won't crucify the team if they do. I get the concerns here for sure. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

38 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

Comparing a elite pass-rushers to a top tier WR is apples and oranges. The guy who affects the oppsing team's QB will win out EVERY time, all things comparable. 

And Deebo's productivity happens to coincide with Jimmy's health and style of play. The type of QB Jimmy was/is is right inline of where Jimmy operated best as a QB, same with Kittle. So their numbers should refelct as much. A guy like Ayuik, who is mor3 skilled and diverse WR than Deebo, is limited with a QB like Jimmy, whose allergic to throwing down the field and outside the numbers. The person throwing you the ball matters in most cases. 

I'm not saying Deebo isn't great. He's our most important offensive weapon and is one of the most unique players in the league. BUT he's not some force of nature that this offense can't afford to lose or will be doomed. Sure it would be hard to replicate all he can do but I would trust Shanny can and would do just that. I definitely don't want to lose him. But I wouldn't be distraught over the thought of our offense w/o him given Lance's presence moving forward.

 

Aiyuk being more skilled is highly debatable. Now Deebo is getting underrated big time, and you can't ignore his special ability after the catch and his burst after the catch. 

And Deebo caught more 20+ yard completions with Lance as the QB than Aiyuk did in those 2.5 games. Deebo can be more of a threat down the field than he showed with Jimmy.

I'm not saying we would be doomed but it would be a massive loss, no doubt about it. From the Seahawks game in his rookie season to last season, dude is a flat out difference maker. He changes the entire complex of the offense and is able to carry it when nothing else is working. I used Bosa as an example to show he is just as injury prone as Deebo, not that he doesn't play a more important position. If a big argument against paying Deebo is his injury history, how can the same not be for Bosa who is JUST as injury prone as Deebo? 

[Ftn49]

3 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Aiyuk being more skilled is highly debatable. Now Deebo is getting underrated big time, and you can't ignore his special ability after the catch and his burst after the catch. 

And Deebo caught more 20+ yard completions with Lance as the QB than Aiyuk did in those 2.5 games. Deebo can be more of a threat down the field than he showed with Jimmy.

I'm not saying we would be doomed but it would be a massive loss, no doubt about it. From the Seahawks game in his rookie season to last season, dude is a flat out difference maker. He changes the entire complex of the offense and is able to carry it when nothing else is working. I used Bosa as an example to show he is just as injury prone as Deebo, not that he doesn't play a more important position. If a big argument against paying Deebo is his injury history, how can the same not be for Bosa who is JUST as injury prone as Deebo? 

You said it yourself. Its not the player, its the scarcity of the position. WRs just aren't as scarce as elite pass rushers. Its why the position pays more and with the influx of highly skilled pass catchers every year is going to eventually somewhat crash the receiver market imo. Doesn't make Deebo any less good of a player.

Also Bosa had two elite level productive seasons vs Deebo's one.

[J-ALL-DAY]

3 minutes ago, Ftn49 said:

You said it yourself. Its not the player, its the scarcity of the position. WRs just aren't as scarce as elite pass rushers. Its why the position pays more and with the influx of highly skilled pass catchers every year is going to eventually somewhat crash the receiver market imo. Doesn't make Deebo any less good of a player.

Also Bosa had two elite level productive seasons vs Deebo's one.

Yes or no, is he as injury prone as Deebo? 

[Ftn49]

2 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Yes or no, is he as injury prone as Deebo? 

I can see the argument for that and even kind of agree with it, however, it doesn't change why it would be easier to move on from Deebo vs Bosa though.

[J-ALL-DAY]

1 minute ago, Ftn49 said:

I can see the argument for that and even kind of agree with it, however, it doesn't change why it would be easier to move on from Deebo vs Bosa though.

That wasn't the argument though. If we are going to have questions about Deebo's health and that is a big reason to not give him a mega deal, then how could that not be applied to Bosa who is just as much injury prone and will be commanding a bigger deal? 

[gridirongorilla]

Just curious, is there data on players who after 1 year of elite productivity, then sign a massive deal, go on to sustain that elite productivity over the following 2+ seasons?

Curious about the failure rate is in these scenarios.

Edited April 13, 2022 by gridirongorilla

[StevenK]

45 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

That wasn't the argument though. If we are going to have questions about Deebo's health and that is a big reason to not give him a mega deal, then how could that not be applied to Bosa who is just as much injury prone and will be commanding a bigger deal? 

Agreed, but we have noticed this FO favors dline over receivers especially for Kyle and his offensive play style mentality- I can make anyone open. I still think both get signed, so it’s moot. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

16 minutes ago, StevenK said:

Agreed, but we have noticed this FO favors dline over receivers especially for Kyle and his offensive play style mentality- I can make anyone open. I still think both get signed, so it’s moot. 

Both will get signed and get big deals...Deservedly so. 

But I don't agree with the notion that Deebo can just be easily replaced with Kyle at the helm. Kyle KNOWS Deebo is different and what he has in him. He's not letting his #1 offensive weapon go. Buckner was a DL not an offensive player. All the top offensive players get kept and extended to big deals. 

[Forge]

9 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

 

But I don't agree with the notion that Deebo can just be easily replaced with Kyle at the helm. Kyle KNOWS Deebo is different and what he has in him. He's not letting his #1 offensive weapon go. Buckner was a DL not an offensive player. All the top offensive players get kept and extended to big deals. 

The thing is, it was a top 5ish offense in 2019 without Deebo being Deebo so we certainly know he can do it. That's why I'll push back against the notion that he's "irreplaceable". 

 But when you say that, you have to give Deebo full props and understand that the offense was only as good as it was this year because of Deebo. I mean, he really was the damn offense lol. 

Again, just another reason that I'm actually good with whatever path they take in the fork in the road. I won't criticize them either way (unless hte trade value was really bad) 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, gridirongorilla said:

Just curious, is there data on players who after 1 year of elite productivity, then sign a massive deal, go on to sustain that elite productivity over the following 2+ seasons?

Curious about the failure rate is in these scenarios.

Not that I'm aware of. Interesting idea though. 

[757-NINER]

1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

That wasn't the argument though. If we are going to have questions about Deebo's health and that is a big reason to not give him a mega deal, then how could that not be applied to Bosa who is just as much injury prone and will be commanding a bigger deal? 

It's not just his health. His health has alot to do with it but it's his ability to stay healthy given the way he's used AND the reports that he wants to reset the market. I have no problem resetting the market for a elite DE. Comes with the territory. Even with Bosa's injury history, his skillset isn't easily found nor replicated. I sorta have a problem making Debo the highest paid at his position with those other factors included. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

43 minutes ago, Forge said:

The thing is, it was a top 5ish offense in 2019 without Deebo being Deebo so we certainly know he can do it. That's why I'll push back against the notion that he's "irreplaceable". 

 But when you say that, you have to give Deebo full props and understand that the offense was only as good as it was this year because of Deebo. I mean, he really was the damn offense lol. 

Again, just another reason that I'm actually good with whatever path they take in the fork in the road. I won't criticize them either way (unless hte trade value was really bad) 

I mean this was a top 5-6 defense in 2020, so is Bosa also not irreplaceable? 

Here is the thing, once he took off in midseason in 2019, he was doing similar things to what he did last season.

In the last 11 games of 2019 (including playoffs)

926 total yards 4 TDs

Would have been on pace for about 1,350 yards in a 16 game season. Obviously last season he went for over 1,700 yards but this is what he does. 

No point of bringing up 2020 as that season was a mess but even then he was on pace to have over 1,000 yards receiving. 

LIS last week, Deebo just needs to be patient. Warner and Kittle both got their big extensions after their 3rd season right around camp time.

[J-ALL-DAY]

52 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

It's not just his health. His health has alot to do with it but it's his ability to stay healthy given the way he's used AND the reports that he wants to reset the market. I have no problem resetting the market for a elite DE. Comes with the territory. Even with Bosa's injury history, his skillset isn't easily found nor replicated. I sorta have a problem making Debo the highest paid at his position with those other factors included. 

I'm not going to put weight on reports and what they say. We have seen over the past year how wrong all these reports have been proven to be. The announced deal for Deebo is not going to end up being reality anyways.