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Surprise first rounders and surprise fallers


paul-mac

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8 hours ago, Daniel said:

Not that many.

Eh, six? That is about average to me. Plus teams want to trade back into the end of the first either from the top of the draft or from day 2 which lends itself to teams getting their guy regardless of whether the prospect is taken a littler higher than necessary.

 

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6 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

Abraham Lucas is going to be picked in the 20's.

I don't think he will, but he would be a better pick than some of the developmental tackles on the tip of everyone's tongues.

In fact I hope he does not, cuz he is not ready to be thrown headfirst into the fire. Back half of round 2 through 4 would be perfect for his growth.

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23 hours ago, Superduperman said:

Bold are ones you got absolutely wrong. Lots of other iffy ones too.

 

23 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

We'll see. There are always surprises in the draft.

I really like both Cameron Thomas and Marcus Jones. Would not be surprised if they went on to become really good pros, but I WOULD be mildly surprised if they went in the first.

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On 4/24/2022 at 11:49 PM, Superduperman said:

Bold are ones you got absolutely wrong. Lots of other iffy ones too.

Drake London for some reason seems to be a lock and Jermaine Johnson is worthy of first round evaluations and seems to be a lock as well but if I were being true to what I thought going in with less input from reports or hype then I have Jermaine on the fringe as much or more so than a lock.

Oalve and Booth I see the potential that has some projecting them in the first so those guys are likely too, but not absolute locks either.

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On 4/24/2022 at 10:52 PM, DoleINGout said:

We'll see. There are always surprises in the draft.

I like most of the players that you've boldly called out.  I don't see much of that actually happening lol, but I do like those guys as day 2 stars.  I also am not going to disagree with you on Booth.  He's very pumped up on this site, and truly is a fringe 1st rounder.  I've got my Booth draft range as 25-41.  One player I will call you out on though is Kinnard.  There's a better chance he goes in the 5th round than the 1st round.

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1 hour ago, eh3034 said:

I like most of the players that you've boldly called out.  I don't see much of that actually happening lol, but I do like those guys as day 2 stars.  I also am not going to disagree with you on Booth.  He's very pumped up on this site, and truly is a fringe 1st rounder.  I've got my Booth draft range as 25-41.  One player I will call you out on though is Kinnard.  There's a better chance he goes in the 5th round than the 1st round.

The Draft Network consensus grade has Booth as a top-10 prospect and the #2 CB in this class.

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5 hours ago, HoboRocket said:

The Draft Network consensus grade has Booth as a top-10 prospect and the #2 CB in this class.

They also have Linderbaum 13th on their board when no NFL team has a 1st round grade on him. They also have Travon 11th when he's a top 5 prospect by everyone else that knows their stuff. There's a reason they aren't on my short list of reliable draft resources.

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5 hours ago, eh3034 said:

They also have Linderbaum 13th on their board when no NFL team has a 1st round grade on him. They also have Travon 11th when he's a top 5 prospect by everyone else that knows their stuff. There's a reason they aren't on my short list of reliable draft resources.

How many players in this class do you think have a true first round grade?

Linderbaum is the top center in this class. Walker has his warts.

TDN doesn't really adjust with combine measurables; their grades are based off of film evaluation. All of their grades should be taken with a grain of salt, but it's film based.

Travon Walker was an impactful defender for the Bulldogs, but he has had one season of 6 sacks and never even reached 3 sacks in a season prior to that. He played on a loaded DL. Is he worthy of going high? Sure. In a class with no clear cut blue-chip prospects, with his athleticism, he's about as good of a pick as anybody. But I wouldn't blame anyone for having a mid-first round grade on him.

As for Booth, I was just intending to state that he's not ONLY pumped up on this site. 

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5 hours ago, eh3034 said:

They also have Linderbaum 13th on their board when no NFL team has a 1st round grade on him. They also have Travon 11th when he's a top 5 prospect by everyone else that knows their stuff. There's a reason they aren't on my short list of reliable draft resources.

TDN have separate boards for what they would do versus their predictive rankings. The latter is much more useful. 

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On 4/26/2022 at 8:26 AM, eh3034 said:

They also have Linderbaum 13th on their board when no NFL team has a 1st round grade on him. They also have Travon 11th when he's a top 5 prospect by everyone else that knows their stuff. There's a reason they aren't on my short list of reliable draft resources.

I would bet my house that Linderbaum goes in the 1st. I have him as a top 10 guy, but I don’t factor in positional value in my rankings. 

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20 minutes ago, BetterCallSaul said:

I would bet my house that Linderbaum goes in the 1st. I have him as a top 10 guy, but I don’t factor in positional value in my rankings. 

I really hope you don't make that bet.  At this point it would be very shocking if he did go in the first round, and all the "draft experts" are agreeing because nearly most of them do not have him in the 1st round anymore.  He really only fits a handful of teams, and the teams he fits don't have a big enough need for him to go in the 1st.  That being said, there are 2-3 spots that would be great fits for him that will come up early 2nd Seattle and Chicago.  Jacksonville at 33 could also be an option.  I wouldn't be surprised if Jurgens is picked before Linderbaum, but alas in my final mock I have Linderbaum going 41 and Jurgens going 45.

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On 4/26/2022 at 1:37 PM, HoboRocket said:

Travon Walker was an impactful defender for the Bulldogs, but he has had one season of 6 sacks and never even reached 3 sacks in a season prior to that

Don't you think if he played in the same position as Adam Anderson in that defense (OLB) with his athleticism, he would easily have over 6 sacks?

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