Surprise first rounders and surprise fallers

[paul-mac]

Just looking at the TDN predictive board, here are their top 32 picks:

 

QB: Willis, Ridder, Pickett

RB:

WR: London, Wilson, Williams, Olave, Burks, Dotson

TE:

OT: Ekwonu, Cross, Neal, Penning

IOL: Johnson, Green, Linderbaum

 

IDL: Davis, Wyatt

EDGE: Hutchison, Thibodeaux, Walker, Johnson, Karlaftis, Mafe

LB: Lloyd

CB: Gardner, Stingley, McDuffie, Elam, Booth.

S: Hamilton, Hill

 

 

 

What guys on this list will NOT be a first round pick?

 

Conversely, who goes in round 1 that isn’t on the list? 

[Superduperman]

Out: Wyatt, Ridder, Dotson

In: Skyy Moore, Travis Jones, Jalen Pitre

[Trojan]

Out:
Wyatt -- no team considers with his domestic violence history if those reports are true.

Penning -- I think some teams would consider him and his best fit is NYG, but they pick very high. I think NYG in the second is his best shot especially if they address like CB/Edge at 5/7. I think he's close to plan A in the second for them.

Ridder -- Seattle and Atlanta are his best fits imo, and once again they pick quite high. I could see as a trade down target (on in Seattle's case a typical YOLO 1st) like EJ Manuel was. I think trading back late into the first is more realistic though if they value the 5th year option. I think there's a better than not shot he just isn't selected in the first.

Pickett -- I think odds are he is selected in the first, but falling like Derek Carr did would also make sense to me. The Raiders needed a QB that year but took Khalil Mack the blue chip prospect first, then took Carr in the second. Something similar wouldn't surprise me with Pickett, but I do feel too many teams could use him that he likely goes in the first.

Olave -- Similar to Pickett I think he's likely to go in the first, but falling out isn't out of the question. I think the two GB picks would be tough to pass by, but GB basically never takes a WR so it's possible. I personally like him very much, but many seem to be lower and a fringe first grade.

Dotson -- I'm less than 50/50 thinking he goes in the first. I think if he does it's late firsts and a fall out of the first would not be surprising.

Burks -- I'd personally be surprised, but if teams are buying his testing numbers over what was demonstrated on gameday... and then comp him to like Laviska Shenault I could see him slipping a little on certain boards. I think the issue here is it's a deep WR class so any minor grievance could easily slip a guy out of the first at the position.

Mafe -- I think he's more a long shot to be in the first than a favorite.

Karlaftis -- I think he's close to a lock, but I see a world he doesn't. There are a few kinda goofy quirks to him in interviews imo. He comes across kinda as a fake it to you make it tough guy football player vibe and has a nerdy quiet side to him. Loosing one on one to on that rep to TE Jeremy Ruckert is also slightly hard to forget. Should be a top 15 player, but feels like there is significantly more bust potential than there should be.

Lloyd -- It's wrong and he is great, but LBs aren't valued well and he did post a slower than ideal testing numbers.

Elam -- I think KC and Cincinati are the likely spots, but they being so late if they pass you are out of the first so it wouldn't be hard to slip out.

So that's 11 guys.
Wyatt -> DT for DT would be Travis Jones or Demarvin Leal as contenders, and my sleeper for that would be Logan Hall. Jones is a NT which is lower value, but likely the highest on board. Leal has the physical ability but had so many roles in college it's hard to project he's fantastic in _____. Hall has a wicked over swim move but was dramatically undersized and added good weight up to an acceptable 280ish. I think it wouldn't be hard to see a touch of Arik Armstead / Deforest Buckner in Hall and take him in the first.

Penning -> OT for OT would be Raimann for a zone team, and Tyler Smith for a gap team. I like Tyler Smith more than Penning in general and would easily one for one him. I think a team like the Saints Tyler Smith would straight up be higher on their board. There are a few other tackles I could see going in the first but I think it's really really long shot, like Abraham Lucas I think fits a team like Arizona well and they do some weird reaches occasionally. Some guys like Nicholas Petit Frere and Rasheed Walker look the part, but aren't the caliber of player... but obviously teams select those types somewhat regularly too often. Faalele might get in on a slim shot off very unique size and power, but I think more realistically that size becomes more a leverage and future knee injury concern with how much he will need to bend and at that weight.

Ridder / Pickett -> QB for QB the options are Matt Corrall, who I think only like the Seahawks might value that high, or Sam Howell, who I personally have higher than either. Realistically if they fall I think it's more passing on QB in general in the first.

Olave / Dotson / Burks -> WR for WR I think all three are likelies, but perhaps one to two slip. The strongest contenders at WR to replace them would be Skyy Moore who has dominated the offseason leading up to the draft and Christian Watson who tested freakishly and has size if Drake London is off the board and the drafting team is looking for a large body.

Mafe / Karlaftis -> DE for DE I think contender number one is David Ojabo regardless of the Achilles injury. If a team is viewing like Karlaftis as a base end in a 4-3 I think Logan Hall enters the conversation as well. I could see some teams liking Kingsley Enagbare over Mafe as I think Enagbare is significantly better against the run. Karlaftis is a favorite in the first, and Mafe I'd say Ojabo is more likely and maybe Hall depending on team. Mafe is a lighter weight pass rusher though and my replacements aren't that role (other than Ojabo). Arnold Ebiketie might fit over Mafe as a straight replacement as well.

Lloyd -> It's a mistake to pass on him, but LB for LB the obvious choice is Nakobe Dean. His issue is size and surely it isn't an issue for some teams so it wouldn't be hard to see him in the first. Quay Walker has a non-zero shot at the first as well, and I think the slightest of shots for Leo Chenal as well but not really.

Elam -> CB for CB I think Roger McCreary has an outside shot of a team not caring about arm length. I could see a safety like Lewis Cine, Jaquan Brisker or Jalen Pitre also taking this spot if expanding to DB for DB.

I could see a world where at least one of Kenneth Walker, Bryce Hall, Trey McBride (and for whatever reason others see in him possibly Greg Dulcich who some confidently list at TE1) are selected as well for other position groups.

[kgarrett12486]

In: Logan Hall, Tyler Smith

[eh3034]

From that list, I don't think we'll see Mafe, Elam, or Linderbaum in the first (I don't even think Linderbaum will be the first C taken).  The QBs I won't touch because they are truly unpredictable.  I also wouldn't be surprised if Booth and Burks fall out (at the very least they will go lower than the high regards the consensus on this site holds them), but I think they'll both sneak into the end of the 1st.

As far as who will go that isn't on that list, I think Christian Watson will go, I still think Nakobe Dean will go in the 1st, and finally I like Kyler Gordon to beat out Elam for the spot.  I said I wouldn't touch the QBs haha, but I don't see Corral listed and I think he could go as high as 20 (though I don't currently have him in the 1st).

Finally, regarding Wyatt, I do think he'll go in the first.  The NFL wouldn't have invited him to the draft knowing there was a risk of him sitting there and having that become a live, in person story on draft night.  Had he not been on the invite list, I'd put more weight into him dropping.  Is that a foolish reason to dismiss it?  Perhaps, but it is what I'm going with.

[MagicMT]

Out : Ridder / Dotson / Green / Mafe / Elam / Booth / 

In: Travis Jones / Christian Watson / Abraham Lucas / Lewis Cine / Nakobe Dean / Skyy Moore 

Edited April 23, 2022 by MagicMT

[Johnny Nix]

Arnold Ebiketie, Travis Jones, and  Kyler Gordon will be first rounders 

[Ozzy]

19 hours ago, Trojan said:

Out:
Wyatt -- no team considers with his domestic violence history if those reports are true.

Penning -- I think some teams would consider him and his best fit is NYG, but they pick very high. I think NYG in the second is his best shot especially if they address like CB/Edge at 5/7. I think he's close to plan A in the second for them.

Ridder -- Seattle and Atlanta are his best fits imo, and once again they pick quite high. I could see as a trade down target (on in Seattle's case a typical YOLO 1st) like EJ Manuel was. I think trading back late into the first is more realistic though if they value the 5th year option. I think there's a better than not shot he just isn't selected in the first.

Pickett -- I think odds are he is selected in the first, but falling like Derek Carr did would also make sense to me. The Raiders needed a QB that year but took Khalil Mack the blue chip prospect first, then took Carr in the second. Something similar wouldn't surprise me with Pickett, but I do feel too many teams could use him that he likely goes in the first.

Olave -- Similar to Pickett I think he's likely to go in the first, but falling out isn't out of the question. I think the two GB picks would be tough to pass by, but GB basically never takes a WR so it's possible. I personally like him very much, but many seem to be lower and a fringe first grade.

Dotson -- I'm less than 50/50 thinking he goes in the first. I think if he does it's late firsts and a fall out of the first would not be surprising.

Burks -- I'd personally be surprised, but if teams are buying his testing numbers over what was demonstrated on gameday... and then comp him to like Laviska Shenault I could see him slipping a little on certain boards. I think the issue here is it's a deep WR class so any minor grievance could easily slip a guy out of the first at the position.

Mafe -- I think he's more a long shot to be in the first than a favorite.

Karlaftis -- I think he's close to a lock, but I see a world he doesn't. There are a few kinda goofy quirks to him in interviews imo. He comes across kinda as a fake it to you make it tough guy football player vibe and has a nerdy quiet side to him. Loosing one on one to on that rep to TE Jeremy Ruckert is also slightly hard to forget. Should be a top 15 player, but feels like there is significantly more bust potential than there should be.

Lloyd -- It's wrong and he is great, but LBs aren't valued well and he did post a slower than ideal testing numbers.

Elam -- I think KC and Cincinati are the likely spots, but they being so late if they pass you are out of the first so it wouldn't be hard to slip out.

So that's 11 guys.
Wyatt -> DT for DT would be Travis Jones or Demarvin Leal as contenders, and my sleeper for that would be Logan Hall. Jones is a NT which is lower value, but likely the highest on board. Leal has the physical ability but had so many roles in college it's hard to project he's fantastic in _____. Hall has a wicked over swim move but was dramatically undersized and added good weight up to an acceptable 280ish. I think it wouldn't be hard to see a touch of Arik Armstead / Deforest Buckner in Hall and take him in the first.

Penning -> OT for OT would be Raimann for a zone team, and Tyler Smith for a gap team. I like Tyler Smith more than Penning in general and would easily one for one him. I think a team like the Saints Tyler Smith would straight up be higher on their board. There are a few other tackles I could see going in the first but I think it's really really long shot, like Abraham Lucas I think fits a team like Arizona well and they do some weird reaches occasionally. Some guys like Nicholas Petit Frere and Rasheed Walker look the part, but aren't the caliber of player... but obviously teams select those types somewhat regularly too often. Faalele might get in on a slim shot off very unique size and power, but I think more realistically that size becomes more a leverage and future knee injury concern with how much he will need to bend and at that weight.

Ridder / Pickett -> QB for QB the options are Matt Corrall, who I think only like the Seahawks might value that high, or Sam Howell, who I personally have higher than either. Realistically if they fall I think it's more passing on QB in general in the first.

Olave / Dotson / Burks -> WR for WR I think all three are likelies, but perhaps one to two slip. The strongest contenders at WR to replace them would be Skyy Moore who has dominated the offseason leading up to the draft and Christian Watson who tested freakishly and has size if Drake London is off the board and the drafting team is looking for a large body.

Mafe / Karlaftis -> DE for DE I think contender number one is David Ojabo regardless of the Achilles injury. If a team is viewing like Karlaftis as a base end in a 4-3 I think Logan Hall enters the conversation as well. I could see some teams liking Kingsley Enagbare over Mafe as I think Enagbare is significantly better against the run. Karlaftis is a favorite in the first, and Mafe I'd say Ojabo is more likely and maybe Hall depending on team. Mafe is a lighter weight pass rusher though and my replacements aren't that role (other than Ojabo). Arnold Ebiketie might fit over Mafe as a straight replacement as well.

Lloyd -> It's a mistake to pass on him, but LB for LB the obvious choice is Nakobe Dean. His issue is size and surely it isn't an issue for some teams so it wouldn't be hard to see him in the first. Quay Walker has a non-zero shot at the first as well, and I think the slightest of shots for Leo Chenal as well but not really.

Elam -> CB for CB I think Roger McCreary has an outside shot of a team not caring about arm length. I could see a safety like Lewis Cine, Jaquan Brisker or Jalen Pitre also taking this spot if expanding to DB for DB.

I could see a world where at least one of Kenneth Walker, Bryce Hall, Trey McBride (and for whatever reason others see in him possibly Greg Dulcich who some confidently list at TE1) are selected as well for other position groups.

Wyatt has domestic violence reports in his past?  I have not heard those, when did that come out?  

As for the weight with Faalele, the dude is physically well proportioned unlike Becton who had crazy thin lower legs, Faalele has a massive base, big feet, long arms and big hands just the dude is huge and that type of physical size is super rare.  Not sure there has been any guy in the NFL that is as well proportioned as he is as a big dude, he is not really fat either compared to the likes of Aaron Gibson who had a belly on him and seemed a lot shorter than Faalele is even though supposedly Gibson was 6-6.  

 

Agree with you on Karlaftis, the dude just did not have that strong of the year and many edge prospect out played him.  Sure he was great in that Iowa game this past year but other games he totally did not do a thing and does not always get off blocks as well as you think he would.  I think it would be a mistake to put him as a 3/4 OLB and some teams need that but he is not a 3/4 OLB in my opinion.  Good prospect but not nearly as good as I thought he would be based on his freshman year tape, but maybe he was still hurt this year or something.  

 

 

Cam Taylor-Britt I think could be a late 1st round pick, dude is a very good athlete, moves well, has good feet and can tackle aggressively for a corner.  Good ball awareness and ball skills, he could be picked up by the Bengals late I think 1st round.  Zyon McCollum and Tariq Woolen are long shots but for sure are early 2nd round picks same with Muma and Troy Andersen.  

[Trojan]

4 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Wyatt has domestic violence reports in his past?  I have not heard those, when did that come out?  

As for the weight with Faalele, the dude is physically well proportioned unlike Becton who had crazy thin lower legs, Faalele has a massive base, big feet, long arms and big hands just the dude is huge and that type of physical size is super rare.  Not sure there has been any guy in the NFL that is as well proportioned as he is as a big dude, he is not really fat either compared to the likes of Aaron Gibson who had a belly on him and seemed a lot shorter than Faalele is even though supposedly Gibson was 6-6.  

 

Agree with you on Karlaftis, the dude just did not have that strong of the year and many edge prospect out played him.  Sure he was great in that Iowa game this past year but other games he totally did not do a thing and does not always get off blocks as well as you think he would.  I think it would be a mistake to put him as a 3/4 OLB and some teams need that but he is not a 3/4 OLB in my opinion.  Good prospect but not nearly as good as I thought he would be based on his freshman year tape, but maybe he was still hurt this year or something.  

 

 

Cam Taylor-Britt I think could be a late 1st round pick, dude is a very good athlete, moves well, has good feet and can tackle aggressively for a corner.  Good ball awareness and ball skills, he could be picked up by the Bengals late I think 1st round.  Zyon McCollum and Tariq Woolen are long shots but for sure are early 2nd round picks same with Muma and Troy Andersen.  

Looks like the source for DV past was Walterfootball, I just googled and found this article that cites their site: https://www.totalprosports.com/2022/04/17/georgia-dt-devonte-wyatt-being-dropped-from-draft-boards-over-multiple-domestic-violence-incidents/

found this for the arrest in Feb 2020 of kicking in his girlfriends door: https://www.ajc.com/sports/college/georgia-devonte-wyatt-arrested-three-misdemeanors/Xx2n8BxYnPzUCNOy1x4UzI/

the original mentions three other incidents that I don't know about

[Ozzy]

50 minutes ago, Trojan said:

Looks like the source for DV past was Walterfootball, I just googled and found this article that cites their site: https://www.totalprosports.com/2022/04/17/georgia-dt-devonte-wyatt-being-dropped-from-draft-boards-over-multiple-domestic-violence-incidents/

found this for the arrest in Feb 2020 of kicking in his girlfriends door: https://www.ajc.com/sports/college/georgia-devonte-wyatt-arrested-three-misdemeanors/Xx2n8BxYnPzUCNOy1x4UzI/

the original mentions three other incidents that I don't know about

Ok, I guess I never heard of those before and have not heard of them before or during the season either.  I guess honestly though Wyatt never really stood out much outside of this past year honestly, but after that combine workout for a dude 300+ in a 3/4 DE spot I think some teams will have a hard time passing on him.  Especially the Bucs if they do not bring Suh back, Wyatt would be a great fit for them and provide a great pass rush.  Leal should be taking that spot but he kind of have disappointed athletically in the workouts but then again on the field the last two seasons could argue Leal has been better than Wyatt has been especially this past year but Leal could easily fall to the 2nd when preseason I had him easily in the 1st round.  

[nicfre2011]

On 4/22/2022 at 3:58 PM, Superduperman said:

Out: Wyatt, Ridder, Dotson

In: Skyy Moore, Travis Jones, Jalen Pitre

Good picks for prospects that could end up in round 1. I like Jones and Moore for the Chiefs. Pitre is a pretty solid Swiss army knife on defense.

[MikeT14]

16 hours ago, Johnny Nix said:

Arnold Ebiketie, Travis Jones, and  Kyler Gordon will be first rounders 

Came here to at least echo Gordon. I’m certain he goes first round. 

[DoleINGout]

32 In: Troy Andersen, Zyon McCollum, Marcus Jones, Josh Paschal, George Pickens, Trey McBride, Cameron Thomas, Christian Harris, Kenny Pickett, Zion Johnson, Kyler Gordon, George Karlaftis, Darian Kinnard, Tyler Smith, Garrett Wilson, Jalen Pitre, Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral, Treylon Burks, Boye Mafe, Trent McDuffie, Kenyon Green, Travon Walker, Jameson Williams, Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal, Charles Cross, Kyle Hamilton, Derek Stingley, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Ahmad Gardner, Aiden Hutchinson.

 

Surprise Out: Daniel Faalele, David Ojabo, Devonte Wyatt, Tyler Linderbaum, Chris Olave, Malik Willis, Trevor Penning, Andrew Booth, Nakobe Dean, Devin Lloyd, Daxton Hill, Travis Jones, Bernhard Rainnman, Drake London, Sam Howell, Roger McCreary, Jermaine Johnson III, Martin Emerson Jr., Kaiir Elam, Jahan Dotson, Jaquan Brisker, Kingsley Enagbare.

[Superduperman]

11 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

32 In: Troy Andersen, Zyon McCollum, Marcus Jones, Josh Paschal, George Pickens, Trey McBride, Cameron Thomas, Christian Harris, Kenny Pickett, Zion Johnson, Kyler Gordon, George Karlaftis, Darian Kinnard, Tyler Smith, Garrett Wilson, Jalen Pitre, Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral, Treylon Burks, Boye Mafe, Trent McDuffie, Kenyon Green, Travon Walker, Jameson Williams, Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal, Charles Cross, Kyle Hamilton, Derek Stingley, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Ahmad Gardner, Aiden Hutchinson.

 

Surprise Out: Daniel Faalele, David Ojabo, Devonte Wyatt, Tyler Linderbaum, Chris Olave, Malik Willis, Trevor Penning, Andrew Booth, Nakobe Dean, Devin Lloyd, Daxton Hill, Travis Jones, Bernhard Rainnman, Drake London, Sam Howell, Roger McCreary, Jermaine Johnson II, Martin Emerson Jr., Kaiir Elam, Jahan Dotson, Jaquan Brisker, Kingsley Enagbare.

Bold are ones you got absolutely wrong. Lots of other iffy ones too.

[DoleINGout]

1 minute ago, Superduperman said:

Bold are ones you got absolutely wrong. Lots of other iffy ones too.

We'll see. There are always surprises in the draft.