Round 2 Pick 34; Christian Watson, WR, NDSU

[craig]

48 minutes ago, wgbeethree said:

FWIW I'm like 99% sure I saw Doubs had the higher top MPH registered at the Senior Bowl. I think both were right around 21 MPH. Google isn't being cooperative though and can't find where I saw that. 

Edit: Found it. Doubs topped out at 21.25 MPH. Watson topped out at 20.71.

 I don't have great sense of how many and how often guys run that fast.  Googling 2020 Senior Bowl, Van Jefferson at 21.05 was the only guy over 21, with only one other WR above 20.5.  An article three weeks into the 2021 NFL season had only 3 players above 21mph.... on of them being our own Sammy Watkins of all people! It also listed speeds from 2020 for offensive players:  Tyreek, Agholor, and Metcalf all flashed speeds above 21.6, but they were the only WR all season in the top 10 to do so (the others were RB), and each only above 21.6 once each all season.  Reminds me how rarely offensive players are flat out sprinting at max speed.  (https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/fastest-nfl-players-2021-2020-and-next-gen-stats-era)

And maybe the story is less that Watson isn't actually all that super fast, and more that Doubs actually might be very fast? 

Go Doubs!  It would be super cool if he turned out to be a very good NFL receiver.  If both of those rookies could turn out excellent, two of your top 3 receivers that get used a lot for years, and be producing long after Cobb and Sammy Watkins, and Julio Jones and OBJ are out of the league, that would be really fun.  

[JordanLoveFTW]

5 hours ago, TheEagle said:

I'll take the explosive because that will give him better separation on more routes. Watson still has plenty of long speed. Most guys who were nearly as explosive as Watson didn't have his long speed.

Watson = 1.45 10, 4.36 40

Olave = 1.45 10, 4.39 40

Pierce = 1.46 10, 4.41 40

Moore = 1.46 10, 4.41 40

MVS did have freaky long speed though (ala Usain Bolt). Bottom line is that Watson still gets to 40 yards faster (and how many throws are longer than 40), and projects to be a better route runner because of his explosiveness.

That’s not how route running works. If he explodes out of the gate, the safeties and corners will already be retreating and ready for the deep pass. Getting to full speed sooner just means you might be covered better down the stretch. MVS sneaks up on you and then blows past you. Those last 20 yards do matter. 
 

But there are advantages to the 10 and 20 yard times too. You can win earlier and get those 30 yard in the air passes vs getting the 60 yarders like MVS got. 

[JordanLoveFTW]

Watson has no highlights or him breaking in or breaking out to create separation. He doesn’t show good route running agility. 
 

What people are confusing as agility is actually straight line explosiveness with the ball in his hands. And it shows up in his 10 yard split. 
 

Watson does not have high upside as a route runner. His in breaking and out breaking routes are clumsy. 
 

He does run a good stop route and a good go route and a deep post. The stop route alone makes him more diverse than MVS, who wouldn’t run any other routes besides the deep post and go routes. 
 

But Watson is not going to be winning on quick outs or deep outs or in breaking routes. He’s going to be winning deep and with that killer stop route and with some back shoulders. He’s a limited player who does a few things really well. A slightly more complete MVS. 

[Norm]

5 minutes ago, JordanLoveFTW said:

Watson has no highlights or him breaking in or breaking out to create separation. He doesn’t show good route running agility. 
 

What people are confusing as agility is actually straight line explosiveness with the ball in his hands. And it shows up in his 10 yard split. 
 

Watson does not have high upside as a route runner. His in breaking and out breaking routes are clumsy. 
 

He does run a good stop route and a good go route and a deep post. The stop route alone makes him more diverse than MVS, who wouldn’t run any other routes besides the deep post and go routes. 
 

But Watson is not going to be winning on quick outs or deep outs or in breaking routes. He’s going to be winning deep and with that killer stop route and with some back shoulders. He’s a limited player who does a few things really well. A slightly more complete MVS. 

Okay, thanks for letting us know.

[JordanLoveFTW]

MVS was a one trick pony. 
 

Watson is a three trick pony. 
 

1. Go routes and deep posts 

2. Stops and come backs 

3. Screens and jet sweeps 

 

 

He is not and will not be a complete player. I would bet on it. 
 

But if MVS is a 700 yard player, Watson can easily be a 1,000 yard guy with his extra tricks. 

[MantyWrestler]

7 hours ago, Gopackgonerd said:

I have no idea what he's seeing, he has legit long speed as well. If there was a difference, it's so minimal. 

I guess that’s where I was going but even if he was correct, .01 after 40 yards is virtually zero difference. 

[JordanLoveFTW]

I challenge anyone to find one play where Watson shows agility breaking in or breaking out to make a catch. He doesn’t have them. They don’t exist. 
 

He runs stops and gos. That’s how he wins. He’s a couple trick pony, which is better than MVS’s one trick. 

[JordanLoveFTW]

4 minutes ago, MantyWrestler said:

I guess that’s where I was going but even if he was correct, .01 after 40 yards is virtually zero difference. 

MVS runs .12 faster than Watson from 20-40 and would presumably run another .12 better from 40-60. MVS has significantly better top speed. 

[MantyWrestler]

44 minutes ago, JordanLoveFTW said:

MVS runs .12 faster than Watson from 20-40 and would presumably run another .12 better from 40-60. MVS has significantly better top speed. 

I don’t think you can assume another .12 from 40-60 yards. It doesn’t necessarily work that way. Your also assuming they do the exact same thing in pads. In pads, Watson may actually be faster from 20-40. 

[squire12]

2 hours ago, MantyWrestler said:

I don’t think you can assume another .12 from 40-60 yards. It doesn’t necessarily work that way. Your also assuming they do the exact same thing in pads. In pads, Watson may actually be faster from 20-40. 

Correct.

Seems someone is not considering/ understanding

peak speed

Sustained peak

Speed deceleration 

[MantyWrestler]

1 hour ago, squire12 said:

Correct.

Seems someone is not considering/ understanding

peak speed

Sustained peak

Speed deceleration 

Right? At that rate MVS will hit the speed of sound way faster than Watson. Lol

[cannondale]

8 hours ago, JordanLoveFTW said:

I challenge anyone to find one play where Watson shows agility breaking in or breaking out to make a catch. He doesn’t have them. They don’t exist. 
 

He runs stops and gos. That’s how he wins. He’s a couple trick pony, which is better than MVS’s one trick. 

Your sweeping generalizations and conclusions hurt my brain. Ironic you have a JL username

[Norm]

9 hours ago, squire12 said:

Correct.

Seems someone is not considering/ understanding

peak speed

Sustained peak

Speed deceleration 

Seems you guys don't realize this is a troll

[Refugee]

On 5/11/2022 at 1:13 AM, Norm said:

I refuse to believe any of this **** is real anymore.

Might as well say he pees sitting down and has a pet cat. 

I got a laugh out of that one, too. Like is that picky eater quote from his mom when he was 5?  I’m sure they have great S&C at NDSU and he is clearly a physical marvel.  Maybe he was just inconsistent with his weight, maybe it’s all entirely made up. I’d be more concerned with him skipping meetings, even if it was just ST. 

Anyway, maybe he just has to grow up a bit and that’s true for anyone at that age. I hope he is ready and confident because he will get humbled by the new level of competition.  He’s a Packer now so I hope the sky is the limit and he is used early for his athletic gifts and expands his role by being smart and savvy in the years ahead. 

[NFLGURU]

16 hours ago, JordanLoveFTW said:

I challenge anyone to find one play where Watson shows agility breaking in or breaking out to make a catch. He doesn’t have them. They don’t exist. 
 

He runs stops and gos. That’s how he wins. He’s a couple trick pony, which is better than MVS’s one trick. 

Agree with much of this.  I dont think Watson his going to be a high volume guy. He doesn't have the route running capability to do it, what he will bring is a deep threat who defenses must respect.  I think this plays into their transition to a defense/power running team.  Their draft focused on defense and the OL.  I believe the days of Rodgers throwing the ball all over the yard are closing and Watson provides enough deep threat to keep defenses honest.  You still need WRs who can get open but  you'll likely see a dip in the passing game.