BayRaider Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 5 hours ago, Frankie2Gunz said: @BayRaider@NYRaider I have a question for you two. .5PPR keeper league. I am keeping J.Allen, Taylor and Akers. I have two picks in the 1st round 7th and 9th. This question is two fold, one has to do with BPA and the other is roster construction. I will list players in order of how they are listed on the draft board and I want your opinion as to who I should target. J WIlliams, Diggs, Kamara, Barkley, Fournette, Kelce, Hill, Lamb, Dobbins and Mahomes. I am assuming that WIlliams, Diggs, Kamara, Barkley, Fornette and Mahomes are all gone by 7. If one of those backs make it to 7 would you take them over Kelce? The workhorse backs left are very limited and the WR pool is very deep. I have done research on which WR's to target later so I feel waiting would provide good value and would be the best option. My question is should Kelce be my top target or should one of those backs be my top selection if one of them slips? I typically wait on TE's but feel that Kelce, Pitts, Kittle and Waller will be gone by the time I pick in the 2nd round. Schultz may be there but is worth taking that risk? Then I have the question about Lamb. I have a feeling he breaks out this year and establishes himself as a true number 1 WR. Assuming all of the RB's I mentioned are gone I feel like Kelce and Lamb would be the best combo. I am keeping a QB and two RB's so this is about players and roster construction. Is Kelce a lock for pick 7 if he is there? Would you rather come away with the top TE and WR, TE and RB or RB and WR in this scenario? I’m unfamiliar how keeper leagues work. But in a normal league I’d go Najee Harris around that range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 6 hours ago, Frankie2Gunz said: You're right it's a matter of philosophy. The safe bet would be Jones who is a proven commodity and barring injury you know what his floor is. If one wants to swing for the fences Hall is the one to target here. I read down a few posts and you bring up an interesting player who I have been considering taking later and that is Ken Walker. I know he is injured but he is in a run heavy O and the back ahead of his is average at best. It's only a matter of time before he gets his shot and if he is good he will not relinquish his spot at the top of the depth chart. His ADP is much more palatable than Hall. Another poster mentioned Cook and he is also interesting. Singletary is average at best and clearly the Bills are not satisfied with him considering they took Cook in the second round. Your point with Cook is how he will be utilized. Is he a 3rd down back or does he have the skills to carry the load? Hall is in the best situation in terms of volume out of the gate and his ADP reflects that. What is your take on Jacobs? Would he be in consideration amongst the group mentioned? Singletary may be average but people are really misunderstanding the Cook draft pick. He is a scat back, very small/undersized who will not run between the tackles, but a great receiving back. The Bills were about to pay JD McKissic a max contract to do just this, but he stayed with the Commanders last second. Cook is going to fufill the McKissic role. Even though Singletary is meh, I still like him as an RB3 this year in the 9th Round. He is on the best offense in the NFL. Walker is a decent pick but may notnget much action the first 5-6 weeks. I’m just not sure he’s worth it in regular leagues. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 18 minutes ago, BayRaider said: Another RB to fade this year is Gibson, and Rookie Brian Robinson may take over that job, or at least get more carries. I’ve been drafting Robinson all offseason, but in the 17th Round. Now he’s a 13th Rounder. Big time. I'm way out on Gibson and buying shares of Robinson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 @Frankie2Gunz I liked Jacobs more than most around May-June but now it seems Drake will be the permanent receiving role while Jacobs is a two down RB. Jacobs is now a 7th rounder because of this. I’ve been drafting Drake all season in the 18th Round. There is no way Drake doesn’t pay off his ADP as a RB6. Heck, I could see Drake finishing as a Low End RB3. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 (edited) Total Fantasy Drafts for the Year: - 10 FFPC BestBall Drafts. $125 Buy In Each. 9K Total Entries. Grand Prize $200,000. - 12 Underdog BestBall Mania Drafts. $25 Buy In Each. 430K Total Entries. Grand Prize $2,000,000. - 5 Underdog BestBall Puppy Drafts. $5 Buy In Each. 220K Total Entries. Grand Prize $200,000. - 13 Drafters BestBall Drafts. $20 Buy In Each. 55K Total Entries. Grand Prize $250,000. - 57 DraftKings BestBall Drafts. $5 Buy In Each. 860K Total Entries. Grand Prize $1,000,000. - 2 DraftKings BestBall Drafts. $25 Buy In Each. 45K Total Entries. Grand Prize $200,000. Total Drafts: 99 Done for the year. Drafting this late and you get no ADP advantages. The winners of these tournaments never come from Late August or September. You need to predict who’s gonna be good before pre-season training camp. Now everyone knows about guys like Pacheco, Brian Robinson, Brandon Aiyuk, etc. My highest % owned QB’s: Trey Lance, Russell Wilson, Trevor Lawrence My highest % owned RB’s: Christian McCaffrey, Najee Harris, Aaron Jones, D’Andre Swift, Leonard Fournette, Breece Hall, Devin Singletary, Kareem Hunt, Tyrion Davis-Price, Brian Robinson, Kenyan Drake. My highest % owned WR’s: Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, Michael Pittman Jr., Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Rashod Bateman, Hollywood Brown, Terry McLaurin, Elijah Moore, Drake London, Brandon Aiyuk, Tyler Lockett, Christian Kirk, Robert Woods, Chase Claypool, Devante Parker, Christian Watson, Danny Gray. My two highest owned guys are probably Aiyuk and Watson. Aiyuk was such an easy smash in the 8th-10th Round. Almost automatic. Now he goes in the 6th after training camp. Watson was an easy smash in the 13th-14th Round. He will destroy in the second of the season. Maybe all season… also I have smashed Danny Gray all offseason in the 20th Round, even before training camp. 49er fans are way too high on Jennings. He has zero athleticism. Gray will have fantasy blowup games, maybe 3 huge games. Jennings will have maybe 1. Jennings will produce more consistently, but those 6 point games are useless. My highest % owned TE’s: George Kittle, Pat Friermuth, Evan Engram Edited August 20, 2022 by BayRaider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 (edited) Complete fades, zero shares in 99 drafts from May through August: Treylon Burks, JuJu, Dalvin Cook, Barkley, AJ Brown, Travis Etienne Jr, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, Michael Thomas, Russell Gage. - Hated Burks in the draft. Bust written all over him. - JuJu sucks. I mean, he’s average I guess. He might do well the first six games or so, but Skyy Moore will emerge at some point. - Vikings will pass a lot more this year and Cook always gets injured anyways. - DJ Moore will burn you again. He always does. Stop falling for it. - Not sold on Etienne. He is the receiving back. Robinson will still get 55% of the carries on the ground. I have a lot of Robinson. - Godwin will miss time, and largely overrated. - Will Michael Thomas return and be effective? I have serious doubts. - Barkley, not only is he injury prone, I don’t trust ANYONE on the Giants offense. Jones is a terrible QB and so is Tyrod. At least on other teams like the Jags and Jets, guys like Lawrence and Wilson have potential. We know who Jones is. Everyone is gonna stack the box vs Barkley. The only Giant player I own 5-6 shares of is Kadarius Toney. Don’t let Daboll hiring fool you, this offense is going to be terrible. - AJ Brown in the second round is way too rich for me… Hurts is not a a passing QB with no passing upside. At least with Trey Lance, he does have huge passing upside to go with his rushing. I have a few Devonta Smith shares in the 7th Round because he’s cheap, but I am not spending a 2nd or 3rd Round pick on an Eagles WR. Edited August 20, 2022 by BayRaider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holt_bruce81 Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 27 minutes ago, BayRaider said: Complete fades, zero shares in 99 drafts from May through August: Treylon Burks, JuJu, Dalvin Cook, Barkley, AJ Brown, Travis Etienne Jr, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, Michael Thomas, Russell Gage. - Hated Burks in the draft. Bust written all over him. - JuJu sucks. I mean, he’s average I guess. He might do well the first six games or so, but Skyy Moore will emerge at some point. - Vikings will pass a lot more this year and Cook always gets injured anyways. - DJ Moore will burn you again. He always does. Stop falling for it. - Not sold on Etienne. He is the receiving back. Robinson will still get 55% of the carries on the ground. I have a lot of Robinson. - Godwin will miss time, and largely overrated. - Will Michael Thomas return and be effective? I have serious doubts. - Barkley, not only is he injury prone, I don’t trust ANYONE on the Giants offense. Jones is a terrible QB and so is Tyrod. At least on other teams like the Jags and Jets, guys like Lawrence and Wilson have potential. We know who Jones is. Everyone is gonna stack the box vs Barkley. The only Giant player I own 5-6 shares of is Kadarius Toney. Don’t let Daboll hiring fool you, this offense is going to be terrible. - AJ Brown in the second round is way too rich for me… Hurts is not a a passing QB with no passing upside. At least with Trey Lance, he does have huge passing upside to go with his rushing. I have a few Devonta Smith shares in the 7th Round because he’s cheap, but I am not spending a 2nd or 3rd Round pick on an Eagles WR. I’m at work so I cant give my full thoughts but I disagree with a lot here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said: I’m at work so I cant give my full thoughts but I disagree with a lot here. AJ Brown is going to need 1200+ yards and 9 TD’s to payoff his current price tag. I just don’t see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 Forgot my other big fade. Zero shares of Ezekiel Elliott. Been falling off a cliff every year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 In a 12 Team League, your chances of winning are 8.33%. Winning 8% of your leagues means you’re an average player. Winning 9% of your leagues means you’re a slightly above average player. Winning 10% of your leagues means you’re an above average player. Winning 11% of your leagues means you’re a great player. Winning 12% of your leagues means you’re an outstanding player. And 13% has become almost unheard of these days with how competitive fantasy has become. Obviously this doesn’t apply to co-worker and friend leagues, where you should probably be winning at least 25% of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holt_bruce81 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 (edited) 28 minutes ago, BayRaider said: In a 12 Team League, your chances of winning are 8.33%. Winning 8% of your leagues means you’re an average player. Winning 9% of your leagues means you’re a slightly above average player. Winning 10% of your leagues means you’re an above average player. Winning 11% of your leagues means you’re a great player. Winning 12% of your leagues means you’re an outstanding player. And 13% has become almost unheard of these days with how competitive fantasy has become. Obviously this doesn’t apply to co-worker and friend leagues, where you should probably be winning at least 25% of the time. Lol what? Where’d you get these stats? Edited August 21, 2022 by holt_bruce81 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 (edited) I won't share any of my recent drafts until the season starts, but I'll share one I like from May. One of my first drafts. This is a $125 buy in with a 9,000 user pool, bestball, and full point PPR. TE Premium, 1.5 pts per reception to TE, so TE's go much quicker. Winner gets $200,000. Picked at the turn QB's: (3) Trey Lance (8) (Now goes in the 6th) Justin Fields (12) Baker Mayfield (18) RB's: (6) D'Andre Swift (1) Aaron Jones (2) Raashad Penny (10) (now goes in the 8th) James Robinson (14) Mark Ingram (16) Isiah Pacheco (19) (first one in the tournament to draft him) (now goes in the 11th round) WR's: (9) Hollywood Brown (3) Terry McLaurin (4) Darnell Mooney (5) (Stacked with Justin Fields) Brandon Aiyuk (7) (Stacked with Trey Lance) Tyler Lockett (9) Jakobi Meyers (13) Corey Davis (15) Velus Jones Jr. (17) (Stacked with Justin Fields) Calvin Austin III (20) TE's: (2) Dawson Knox (6) Noah Fant (11) Hoping my early takes on Pacheco, Penny, and Lance payoff. The reason I picked Penny is he faces the worst run defense in the NFL in Week 17 vs the Jets. But there's always a chance Walker starts that game. But Jones and Swift also have good Week 17 matchups. All my RB's outside of Ingram have sexy Week 17 Matchups. I'm definitely worried about my TE's, usually I go with an Elite TE. I have Kittle in a ton of leagues. Hoping Allen targets Knox a ton this year. Knox also faces one of the worst TE defenses in the NFL in Week 17 in the Bengals. Edited August 21, 2022 by BayRaider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said: Lol what? Where’d you get these stats? I subscribe to most fantasy websites, the main that supplies statistics like this is RotoViz, but Establish The Run as well. RotoViz took 1st and 2nd Place in FFPC BestBall Tournament last year. While Establish The Run wins majority of BestBall contests. Like I said, this doesn't include friend/co-worker leagues where you should be winning majority of the time. But in non co-worker/friend/family leagues, fantasy is extremely competitive. It's basically like poker now. Everyone has figured out small edges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holt_bruce81 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 2 hours ago, BayRaider said: AJ Brown is going to need 1200+ yards and 9 TD’s to payoff his current price tag. I just don’t see it. It’s not just AJ Brown that I disagree with, it’s a lot of players we don’t see eye to eye on. 1. You use injury to justify not taking Dalvin Cook, yet CMC is one of your most drafted players? And just because the Vikings are going to pass more doesn’t mean Dalvin still isn’t going to get 20 touches a game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said: It’s not just AJ Brown that I disagree with, it’s a lot of players we don’t see eye to eye on. 1. You use injury to justify not taking Dalvin Cook, yet CMC is one of your most drafted players? And just because the Vikings are going to pass more doesn’t mean Dalvin still isn’t going to get 20 touches a game. CMC has broken fantasy football before and can do it again. Dalvin Cook cannot. CMC is the obvious #1 pick in full point PPR leagues. Taylor in Half PPR. Can CMC get injured again? Absolutely. But if he’s healthy, and comes anywhere close to 2019 CMC, the odds of winning your league go from 8.33% to 45%. Dalvin Cook does not offer anywhere close to that ceiling. CMC isn’t just a take of mine, almost all big tournament winners have him as #1. And most websites in general have him #1 or #2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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