Fantasy Football 2022 General Discussion

[BayRaider]

52 minutes ago, 101Raider said:

So how bad an idea is it to draft BOTH Sutton and Jeudy?  I feel like the Patrick loss was bigger deal than we’re making out to be.

 I have a lot of conviction in Russell balling out in Denver. As this is my Superflex league and I draft near the turn,  I don’t see myself in a position to take Wilson, but can see a situation where both WRs are available to me in the middle rounds. 

i know doubling up on the same team’s skill position caps upside, but it also raises the floor IMO and I’m confident that both will get fed by Wilson.

 

I have Wilson/Sutton/Jeudy in quite a few leagues. 

[Forge]

On 8/13/2022 at 9:58 AM, 101Raider said:

So how bad an idea is it to draft BOTH Sutton and Jeudy?  I feel like the Patrick loss was bigger deal than we’re making out to be.

 I have a lot of conviction in Russell balling out in Denver. As this is my Superflex league and I draft near the turn,  I don’t see myself in a position to take Wilson, but can see a situation where both WRs are available to me in the middle rounds. 

i know doubling up on the same team’s skill position caps upside, but it also raises the floor IMO and I’m confident that both will get fed by Wilson.

 

I'm still not overly bullish on Jeudy (though I think he's a safe PPR pick) , but I *do* like Sutton with Wilson and think he's being under drafted. 

[Forge]

On 8/12/2022 at 5:41 PM, mattyice0401 said:

I know its preseason I KNOW but Trey Sermon getting the start is exactly why I dont want anything to do with the Niner backfield

EDIT: I guess he has a hammy thats why he didnt get the start, just looked it up

Mitchell is 100% the starter. It's not even a real question. The problem is that he's hurt a lot and I don't think that there is going to be a lot of passing game volume. Trey Lance hasn't really shown a propensity to check the ball down. Furthermore, you may see his short yardage work get poached by TDP or (especially) Lance. His role on the team isn't really the problem, it's the actual fantasy value of the role imo. 

The idea that Shanny always just messes with the backfield is a little misguided. He has shown he's willing to do it either way. If someone proves that they are just the best candidate, he doesn't mind sticking with one guy. He showed it again last year with Mitchell (who was something like 4th in the league in carry share when he was healthy) and had previously shown it with Alfred Morris and Steve Slaton back in the day. Carlos Hyde got 240 carries Shanny's first year in SF which was 11th in the league. Mitchell was 13th in the league last year in carries and missed a third of the season (6 games).

Part of the problem is that none of the guys since then has firmly grabbed the #1 spot  and none of these guys stay healthy (mostert was constantly hurt, Breida was hurt multiple times, Mitchell had like 4 different injuries just last year, etc). 

[squire12]

7 minutes ago, Forge said:

Mitchell is 100% the starter. It's not even a real question. The problem is that he's hurt a lot and I don't think that there is going to be a lot of passing game volume. Trey Lance hasn't really shown a propensity to check the ball down. Furthermore, you may see his short yardage work get poached by TDP or (especially) Lance. His role on the team isn't really the problem, it's the actual fantasy value of the role imo. 

I thought both TDP and Sermon looked good in the preseason game.  Feels like a strong RBBC type thing which is bad for fantasy football but good for actual football

[Forge]

Just now, squire12 said:

I thought both TDP and Sermon looked good in the preseason game.  Feels like a strong RBBC type thing which is bad for fantasy football but good for actual football

I thought Sermon looked meh again. He's going to make the roster, but I don't think he'll be a thing unless he becomes the third down back. 

I do think that TDP will be a thing in some manner. Not sure how much. He can't catch, but he's a big boy and runs hard so should have a spot as a short yardage guy. But Mitchell is better than all of them. But his body can't take it (not that it stopped Shanny last year either). 

[Forge]

On 8/12/2022 at 4:40 AM, NYRaider said:

I was extremely bullish on Deebo this year but the reports about Lance have kinda swayed my view. Interested to see how Lance plays in the preseason but I could see a scenario where Lance's rushing ability negates the need to use Deebo there and Lance's struggles throwing the ball really cap Deebo's ceiling. 

Deebo has been a guy I knew I would have 0 shares of this year since we finished last year lol. 

His ADP is too high for what I expect. 

[Dr LBC]

Just got back from Vegas where I did my Big Money League draft live.

12-team, Standard scoring (6pt passing TD's)

I'm quite satisfied.

QB: Russell Wilson
RB: Joe Mixon
RB: Aaron Jones
WR: Courtland Sutton
WR: Mike Williams
TE: Hunter Henry (streamer - and with our limited bench slots and one guy having 3 TE's to go with his 2 QB's, I'll likely be picking his scraps for Cole Kmet, though I may put together a trade offer for his Dalton Schultz since he also has Kelce and all of 2 total RB's)
WR/RB: Josh Jacobs
WR/TE: Hollywood Brown
K: Daniel Carlson
D/ST: New Orleans

Bench:
Robert Woods
Cordarelle Patterson
Tony Pollard

In this particular league format, Pollard was a worthy choice as my last RB taken because he may well hold stand-alone FLEX value if he gets a similar red-zone share that he got last season and he's a ++ option if something does happen to Zeke.  Drafting a QB before R9 was unconventional for me, but in R8 I was prepared to take Kyler on the back of getting Hollywood in R6, but he was swept up 2 picks prior, so the opportunity to get the stack of Russ and Sutton was too good to pass on.

Edited August 15, 2022 by Dr LBC

[BayRaider]

Pacheco is an 11th Rounder now, crazy. Glad all my shares are in the 20th Round. 

[Dr LBC]

I'm going to sit and wait for a few more weeks of preseason to go by, just to be certain as to not having injuries suddenly turning my team (above) from having RB depth as a strength to having it as a necessity.  But I'm anticipating putting in an offer to the team owner with 3 TE's and only 2 RB's for one of either Schultz (preferred and will be my opening offer) or Kmet (who I'm willing to settle for but not overpay) - with a mind towards then dropping Hunter Henry to grab 1 of (at least at the moment) Brian Robinson Jr, Pacheco, Allgeier, or Khalil Herbert off the wire.

My question at this point is, considering the following is his roster:
QB: Lamar, Stafford
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre
WR: Deebo, Allen Robinson, Bateman, Olave
TE: Kelce, Schultz, Kmet

Then is my offering, say, Cordarelle Patterson straight up for Schultz a case of:
A) Me overpaying and, if so, by how much?
B) Me lowballing him so much that he won't even consider a counter (though if I make him an offer for Kmet, it's going to be Tony Pollard straight up or bust)
C) A situation where I should try and do a package deal for a package deal and, say, send Patterson and Robert Woods to him for Schultz and Allen Robinson (which I'm 95% positive he'd shoot down), and might now be an option unless Woods has a hotter first 2 weeks than Robinson does.

[squire12]

@JaguarCrazy2832  how you seeing the JAX RB situation playing out between ETN and JRob?

@Forge how you seeing the SF RB situation playing out between Mitchell, TDP, Sermon, WIison, etc?

 

I have a 12 team full PPR 1 player keeper.  Keeper cost is 2 rounds ahead of the previous years round with FA pick ups being a 10th round.  players can be kept a max of 2x

My options are 

• Deebo for my 4th
• McLaurin for my 8th (this would be my 2nd time keeping McLaurin)
• Mitchell/ETN/Dobbins for my 10th 

I am leaning to 1 of the RB as the position tends to be picked early.  I am pretty much down to ETN or Mitchell, but both have +/- from my outside view and am looking for some inside scoop that might tip the decision.  

I would keep ETN since I think his 2022 production is similar to Mitchell, but ETN has a bit more 2023 upside (thinking that might be a bit of the tiebreaker)

 

Thanks in advance for your thoughts!!!

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, squire12 said:

@Forge how you seeing the SF RB situation playing out between Mitchell, TDP, Sermon, WIison, etc?

 

Mitchell until he's hurt. I don't even think it's going to be that much of a committee, tbh. 

That said, he's already hurt so I wouldn't invest much into him regardless. He's never going to be healthy. 

[squire12]

Just now, Forge said:

Mitchell until he's hurt. I don't even think it's going to be that much of a committee, tbh. 

That said, he's already hurt so I wouldn't invest much into him regardless. He's never going to be healthy. 

For sure.   I am thinking Mitchell/ETN would be my RB2 and getting that in the 10th round is really good value.  Just need to make the best decision on which is likely to be more productive in that role.   Even if either is my RB3, 10th round is still good value.  

My guess on keepers from other teams is

• Jefferson 5th round
• Higgins 4th round
• ARSB 10th round
• Mooney 11th round
• Gabe Davis 12th round
• Singletary 8th round
• Conner 6th round or Hollywood 9th round
• Batemon 12th round
• Akers 10th round
• Mike Williams 10th round

I have the 9th pick in round 1 snake draft, so will have the choice of a high tier RB or top tier WR

[JaguarCrazy2832]

23 minutes ago, squire12 said:

@JaguarCrazy2832  how you seeing the JAX RB situation playing out between ETN and JRob?

Its tough to say because under normal circumstances JRob should get the majority(not vast but >55% of them) but he is recovering from an injury that takes a while before you are fully yourself and there’s no telling if he is Cam Akers in the playoffs level of ineffective and in that case we’d have no choice but to give more carries elsewhere. When healthy he has been a very good fantasy back and Etienne likely wont be a 250 carry guy but he has Kamara level of upside in PPR. He is explosive and given our likely negative gamescripts I expect him to be involved often but round 3/4 for Etienne might be too high

[BayRaider]

Agree with this video, not sure why people hate Najee so much this year. I think if McCaffrey stays healthy, him and Najee finish as the top two PPR backs quite easily. 

A RB1 has not repeated in 20 years. Taylor will likely finish as a Top 4 RB, but I definitely think the Colts will be passing more with Matt Ryan. The only reason they abandoned the pass last year mid-season (which led to Taylors insane workload) was because Wentz was so bad. 

[BayRaider]

41 minutes ago, Forge said:

Mitchell until he's hurt. I don't even think it's going to be that much of a committee, tbh. 

That said, he's already hurt so I wouldn't invest much into him regardless. He's never going to be healthy. 

I have absurd amounts of TDP late, Mitchell is like glass. I also don’t trust Wilson’s health, and Sermon is fools gold. TDP didn’t look great in his first pre-season game, but he’s a very durable RB that can actually handle a Shanahan scheme.