**2023 NFL Draft Prospects**

[matt79511]

4 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

Let's not forget how Dallas attempted to do this between Murray's remarkable year behind the single best season I've ever witnessed for an offensive line in my far too many years being involved in or watching the sport, and the drafting of Zeke.

The investment in the run game was already there. Fredrick, Martin, Tyron, Leary/Collins and even to an extent Doug Free were all either well paid, highly drafted or long term developments of an undrafted steal (Leary). The offense was designed around the athletic wide angle run game, utilizing a ton of stretch and one cut zone based blocking, with play action bootlegs off of that staple in the playcalling. 

But with Joe "The Clepto" Randle, McFadden and Morris all getting chances, it was clear - if you have the best race track, it's really only going to waste if you're driving around it in a Ford Focus. Sure, it'll work. But it really takes off when you hit that track with a Corvette (or insert your option for raw horsepower here).

Investing big in a running back, as I have said before, is extremely worth it - IF and only if, your offense is already built around a ground game with investments on the OL, the proper staff in place, the right system to make it shine, and if that team is deep enough to win now. Investing big in a runner without all the pieces in place to make it turn the tide between possibly playoff bound and possibly super bowl bound is just unwise. Ask the Steelers and Giants, with two of the most gifted runners in the NFL, who will be looking for new, big paydays with half their best productive years behind them before the team was ready to make use of those years.

So what are Miles Sanders and Isaiah Pacheco in this analogy? Corvettes? Maseratis? Aston Martins? I’m gonna say those guys are Ford Focus level, maybe a Volvo for Sanders (flashy but unreliable)

The 2015 team very obviously had more problems than just losing Murray and it was an overcorrection to use the 4th pick in the draft to fix that. There’s a happy medium here. We should’ve used a 3rd-to-5th rounder on RB 8 years ago and we should do the same next week

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

12 minutes ago, matt79511 said:

We should’ve used a 3rd-to-5th rounder on RB 8 years ago and we should do the same next week

The Jalen Ramsey-Derrick Henry path many of us advocated for would have worked out nicely.

[matt79511]

6 minutes ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

The Jalen Ramsey-Derrick Henry path many of us advocated for would have worked out nicely.

Indeed, though I was referring to the 2015 draft/season. Not that many great options after we opened with Byron and Gregory, but literally anyone would’ve been better than Chaz Green

[Dallas94Ware]

10 minutes ago, matt79511 said:

So what are Miles Sanders and Isaiah Pacheco in this analogy? Corvettes? Maseratis? Aston Martins? I’m gonna say those guys are Ford Focus level, maybe a Volvo for Sanders (flashy but unreliable)

The 2015 team very obviously had more problems than just losing Murray and it was an overcorrection to use the 4th pick in the draft to fix that. There’s a happy medium here. We should’ve used a 3rd-to-5th rounder on RB 8 years ago and we should do the same next week

Haha. 

The difference between the players you mentioned and what I'm getting at, is that they aren't the premier focus on their offense. Sanders has, for his career, shared carries and time with other runners and didn't truly take off as a pure runner until the read option run concept with Hurts became a big factor. So that becomes a bit of specific circumstance where factors outside of the running back have a bigger influence on that runners productivity than the running back himself.

Pacheco is/was a rookie. Despite being drafted at the end of the draft, he already had the promise of a future starter and it showed in limited action. When he really got his chance, he and McKinnon became a hell of a combo - but however, on an offense that is by far pass-first. The Chiefs are not exactly built for the run game to be the focal point of their offense. Which makes sense when you have the kind of QB that has completely redefined what it means to be a QB in this modern NFL. 

A better comparison to me would be Houston, odd as it sounds. The offense is tailored to the run game, and their line actually excelled more often than not in the run game. And they had a mid round rookie that became a fantasy football waiver wire darling because of how he was producing. Jacksonville with Josh Robinson the year prior is another good example of what you are trying to get at.

So I absolutely get what you are saying, if I'm making the comps for you. The thing is, Robinson was a UDFA steal who if you did that draft over, probably goes sometime in day two. That kid in Houston likely goes much higher, too. Pacheco, for sure (even though again, that offense isn't designed to feature the run) They were draft steals in a way. Which happens at all positions. But you ideally have a better chance at finding that potential high powered Corvette that lasts you a while at a quality dealership (ie, round 1, round 2) than you do on Craig's list (late in the draft).

I am all for selecting a mid round runner if that's what the board dictates. But I'm also all for Bijan at 26 if he's there. Take the offense to the next level if you have a chance. And if not, I don't see running back as a pressing enough need to say we "need" one unless the selection of that kid is going to transform or define the offenses production.

[Dallas94Ware]

10 minutes ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

The Jalen Ramsey-Derrick Henry path many of us advocated for would have worked out nicely.

Possibly so. But Ramsey has been a total headache everywhere he has been, and he comes with a huge price tag on top of the headache. He's been shipped or asked to be shipped off anytime criticism makes its way in his direction. For all of his goodness on the field, I'm thankful he wasn't a Cowboy. He possibly could have been traded one or two years in for being the whiney brat he is coming off of that first Romo injury season with Dak Prescott struggling while handing off to...I dunno, Alfred Morris again?

And let's not forget Derrick Henry took three years to look even like he was worth a 4th round selection, and a fifth season before he burst onto the scene as everyone's favorite fantasy pick and stat monster. I don't think Dallas could have waited that long for productivity from the position. This fan base would have gone crazy calling for him to be cut already after year two, likely after year one even. And those star players we have? Doubt they would have stuck around here either as the team went back to back losing seasons being built for the ground but producing a whopping 490 yards from their new star product at RB.

 

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

How can Dallas screw the pooch? I’m feeling pretty optimistic right now that even the most disappointing of seemingly likely scenarios isn’t too bad. Like, I’m not thrilled to draft Bijan or Drew Sanders at #26, but those aren’t disasters, IMO.

-A trade up for just about anybody seems like a bad move. Even hopping up to 24 would cost you a 4th rounder. Is there someone worth that? Maybe, but anything more would be a real travesty.

-We can’t know what the medicals for Dalton Kincaid look like, but if they are anything less than spotless, that would be a mess for me.

What else?

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

20 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

Possibly so. But Ramsey has been a total headache everywhere he has been, and he comes with a huge price tag on top of the headache. He's been shipped or asked to be shipped off anytime criticism makes its way in his direction. For all of his goodness on the field, I'm thankful he wasn't a Cowboy. He possibly could have been traded one or two years in for being the whiney brat he is coming off of that first Romo injury season with Dak Prescott struggling while handing off to...I dunno, Alfred Morris again?

And let's not forget Derrick Henry took three years to look even like he was worth a 4th round selection, and a fifth season before he burst onto the scene as everyone's favorite fantasy pick and stat monster. I don't think Dallas could have waited that long for productivity from the position. This fan base would have gone crazy calling for him to be cut already after year two, likely after year one even. And those star players we have? Doubt they would have stuck around here either as the team went back to back losing seasons being built for the ground but producing a whopping 490 yards from their new star product at RB.

 

Jalen Ramsey gave the Jags 4 years of excellent football at one of the most important positions in football, and then landed two 1sts and a 4th in a trade.

That is so much better than what we got out of Zeke, forget Derrick Henry.

[Dallas94Ware]

58 minutes ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

Jalen Ramsey gave the Jags 4 years of excellent football at one of the most important positions in football, and then landed two 1sts and a 4th in a trade.

That is so much better than what we got out of Zeke, forget Derrick Henry.

Zeke gave us two rushing titles and allowed a middle tier at best team compete for the playoffs and in the playoffs. I'm not going to debate which the better selection would have been because both have had good careers, and we are being a bit biased with recency considering Zeke's sharp and sudden drop off from what he was up to year 4 and what he was going into years 6 and 7. Definitely creates some bias along with the hindsight. But let's not diminish what Zeke accomplished here and what he allowed Dak to accomplish, although with recency bias and emotions for a bad playoff exit, most will diminish that as well. Both allowed one another to excel at times, and defined this team long before Dan Quinn turned Chicken poop into chicken salad with this defense and gave the team something else to lean on. And just in the knick of time no less.

Guess what I am saying is, this isn't a Taco over Watts situation. Zeke was the perfect pick for that point in time, and he played a big part in putting the trajectory of the team back on course. At that point in time, I don't think you get the same out of Ramsey. Corners don't carry a defense especially with a crappy pass rush or an offense that can't kill clock or score points. Zeke was the best sense pick at the time. If you fast forward four years, assuming Jalen didn't whine his way out of town already, sure Ramsay would have paired great with Diggs and been a defining factor on defense - now. But six years ago? Can't really say the same thing 

 

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

25 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

Corners don't carry a defense especially with a crappy pass rush or an offense that can't kill clock or score points.

 

How much evidence do you need that runningbacks don’t carry offenses? 

[Dallas94Ware]

2 hours ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

How can Dallas screw the pooch? I’m feeling pretty optimistic right now that even the most disappointing of seemingly likely scenarios isn’t too bad. Like, I’m not thrilled to draft Bijan or Drew Sanders at #26, but those aren’t disasters, IMO.

-A trade up for just about anybody seems like a bad move. Even hopping up to 24 would cost you a 4th rounder. Is there someone worth that? Maybe, but anything more would be a real travesty.

-We can’t know what the medicals for Dalton Kincaid look like, but if they are anything less than spotless, that would be a mess for me.

What else?

Damn good question IMO.

I'd have to say selecting anyone who's projected to be a "down the road" player, of an of the future starter (short of a QB that is). Someone whos injury rehab requires a year, or potential is over reaching what they can do for us now in general, would be a blown first round pick to me. This team is high priced and poised to make a real run. We need help now, not just two or three years down the road.

Not picking a good projected starter at QB "because we have Dak" would also be a blown pick to me. We know what Dak is, whether you love him or hate him. He's been great, he's been crappy, and everything in between. His contract is high, and will only get higher next year when he's up for a new one. So passing on some sliding potential star like Levis or Richardson because of Dak, in my opinion, is blowing it. You have the chance to get cheaper, younger and possibly land better for that cheaper price while learning behind Dak in his last contract year...you take it.

 

That all said........

.....they are kind of due for a first round blunder. Can't stay batting .950 in round one forever.

Edited April 19, 2023 by Dallas94Ware

[Dallas94Ware]

4 minutes ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

How much evidence do you need that runningbacks don’t carry offenses? 

They can, though. Zeke did so his rookie year, allowing a rookie fourth round selection to come in, start, be productive and take care of the ball. I'd also argue there's a direct correlation between Daks "down years" stat wise and Zeke missing time (sophomore season) or not being what he once was (such as this past season). 

Outside of Dallas. Was Tennessee in the AFC title game because of one time draft bust Ryan Tannehill, or because of Derrick Henry and, yes, that defense? In Philly, do they make it to the big game this past February without essentially having a running back that also plays QB? (Or vice versa if you want to word it that way) Hurts ability to run and carry the game as a runner was a huge factor in their hardest wins. That's an odd situation though, so let's also look at 2021 Colts. Yes, only 9-8 but without Taylor carrying that team? Likely 3 or 4 wins at best. 

If your offense is built for the run, and you have the right guy back there, a running back can absolutely carry a team - the real question is, how long can that be sustained for? Dunno why, but as the game has gotten "cleaner" and "safer" the longevity of these runners has gotten shorter. It's very odd. It's almost like their careers were longer and safer bets when they could be chopped down at the knees, horse collared, hit out of bounds, head hunted, speared, targeted and hit while defenseless. I dunno man 😂

 

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

54 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

Damn good question IMO.

I'd have to say selecting anyone who's projected to be a "down the road" player, of an of the future starter (short of a QB that is). Someone whos injury rehab requires a year, or potential is over reaching what they can do for us now in general, would be a blown first round pick to me. This team is high priced and poised to make a real run. We need help now, not just two or three years down the road.

Who? Give me some names with tea leaves indicating interest.

55 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

Not picking a good projected starter at QB "because we have Dak" would also be a blown pick to me. We know what Dak is, whether you love him or hate him. He's been great, he's been crappy, and everything in between. His contract is high, and will only get higher next year when he's up for a new one. So passing on some sliding potential star like Levis or Richardson because of Dak, in my opinion, is blowing it. You have the chance to get cheaper, younger and possibly land better for that cheaper price while learning behind Dak in his last contract year...you take it.

I mean, sure, but Levis and Richardson aren’t sniffing #26, so 🤷🏻‍♂️

56 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

That all said........

.....they are kind of due for a first round blunder. Can't stay batting .950 in round one forever.

Certainly they might pick a bust. But that’s not the question. The question is, when we are sitting here at the end of the night on April 27, what would have to happen for you come on here and say, “man, I think we really screwed up”?

Taco was that way. Micah would have been my answer to this a couple years back, so obviously this is not a science. But I just don’t see many scenarios that will lead to grave disappointment for me this year. Wondering if others have thoughts.

[Dallas94Ware]

3 hours ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

Who? Give me some names with tea leaves indicating interest.

I mean, sure, but Levis and Richardson aren’t sniffing #26, so 🤷🏻‍♂️

Certainly they might pick a bust. But that’s not the question. The question is, when we are sitting here at the end of the night on April 27, what would have to happen for you come on here and say, “man, I think we really screwed up”?

Taco was that way. Micah would have been my answer to this a couple years back, so obviously this is not a science. But I just don’t see many scenarios that will lead to grave disappointment for me this year. Wondering if others have thoughts.

I loved Micah since before covid. So I was on board. I did feel that way with that UConn Corner some years ago...Taco as well...but I even loved the Fredrick pick, so I dunno..

I'd have to really stick to what I said. Passing on a QB cause of Dak, knowing the contract situation, would be a blunder to me. Or picking some injured or project player who can't help now. Beyond that, they are really in a good position to grab whatever is left of the top guys. Don't matter where. Just add a good player, whatever's left over from that top 15 or 20.

Levis, probably doesn't last. Too close to a finished product. Needs work but he's close to being in the running with Stroud and Young. Richardson could slide like Rodgers due to need, quality at other positions, and being too "unfinished" and more of a long term work like Allen was, who took three years before the light switch was hit. I do think Hooker goes round one, he has far too much ability not to. If Dallas likes him, that age doesn't scare me at all. I wouldn't be opposed to it. Daks contract has got to go, and this is a damn good crop of QBs. I don't think they all become stars, but the skillets on all of them are of guys worth going high.

To name specific guys? I dunno. I don't like Joey Porter Jr for THIS team because we already have an aggressive, flag drawing, physical corner in Diggs. Two would be problematic, though Porter is a hell of a player. I'm also not fond of the next tier of interior DLs after that top guy who didn't want to do interviews. Forget his name, but he's a beast. Outside of him, I don't see enough flash or star power at the next set of guys to justify a top round pick unless you are desperate enough. 

Like I said...it's a good question.

Edited April 19, 2023 by Dallas94Ware

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

26 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

I loved Micah since before covid. So I was on board. I did feel that way with that UConn Corner some years ago...Taco as well...but I even loved the Fredrick pick, so I dunno..

I'd have to really stick to what I said. Passing on a QB cause of Dak, knowing the contract situation, would be a blunder to me. Or picking some injured or project player who can't help now. Beyond that, they are really in a good position to grab whatever is left of the top guys. Don't matter where. Just add a good player, whatever's left over from that top 15 or 20.

Levis, probably doesn't last. Too close to a finished product. Needs work but he's close to being in the running with Stroud and Young. Richardson could slide like Rodgers due to need, quality at other positions, and being too "unfinished" and more of a long term work like Allen was, who took three years before the light switch was hit. I do think Hooker goes round one, he has far too much ability not to. If Dallas likes him, that age doesn't scare me at all. I wouldn't be opposed to it. Daks contract has got to go, and this is a damn good crop of QBs. I don't think they all become stars, but the skillets on all of them are of guys worth going high.

To name specific guys? I dunno. I don't like Joey Porter Jr for THIS team because we already have an aggressive, flag drawing, physical corner in Diggs. Two would be problematic, though Porter is a hell of a player. I'm also not fond of the next tier of interior DLs after that top guy who didn't want to do interviews. Forget his name, but he's a beast. Outside of him, I don't see enough flash or star power at the next set of guys to justify a top round pick unless you are desperate enough. 

Like I said...it's a good question.

Ok, passing on Levi’s or Richardson - fine, that confirms to me that we’re probably in agreement that a really disappointing pick is pretty unlikely?

I am really curious about what players you really don’t want. “Project” and “injured” are nebulous words. Who, if we drafted that player, you’d say, “wow, that was terrible!”

A lot of people for sure would have said Taco and Trysten Hill before their drafts. I want to know who those guys are for people on this forum this year. Make your call.

I have some slightly disappointing names that Cowboys have shown interest in - Mazi Smith, Hyatt, Sanders, McDonald… but even those guys bring enough to the table for me to be alright if they are the pick.

[Dallas94Ware]

While I am certainly not a fan of trading this pick, because WR depth is stellar this year (though I'd be a bit heart-stung if we went that route), interior OL is still quality later in the top tier of guys, and it seems to be a great draft to land a 10 year starter at DB - particularly safety(I'm looking at you, Mr. Brian "Darren Woodson" Branch). I am feeling more and more that, with that NFC title game really in reach going into halftime of that Divisional round loss, that this is the draft that Jerry, Stephen and McClay do something "big."

They already broke their trend when they started trading for well paid veterans like Gilmore and Cooks. What's to say they don't pull the trigger on some highly coveted player they feel puts them over a hump? Something like a star corner, or an interior rusher who can come in on third downs this year and consistently smack a QB? Or, potentially, add some high octane weapon to pair with Cooks and Lamb, going all in on Daks final contract year? Tight End maybe? That TCU receiver that I think goes far higher than projections (but coincidentally I also feel has extremely high bust potential)? 

I'd prefer, if they trade the pick, that they trade back and get themselves a quality pick next year to allow them to move around for a key piece next year. But I don't think trading back works this year because I know Jerry probably still has a stiffy from being two quarters away from an NFC Title game and they're going to want to make an impact pick. Which is why I still think this is the year they do something big...

If they do, I just hope it works.

Anyone else kinda getting this feeling?