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State of the Steelers


warfelg

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43 minutes ago, AFF said:

Trading up also comes with even a greater risk…your giving up multiple 1sts and 2nds usually in multiple years.

Indeed.  Best be able to identify a franchise QB.  They are rare animals but having a very good team you can get a mid level talent and go far.  San Fran is a prime example as is the Pre-Ben Steelers

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40 minutes ago, jebrick said:

This is BS.  I will quote someone else who nailed this argument

It's not much of a BS argument when you just gave out 5 examples across a 20 year span. 

Like Aaron Rodgers 19 years ago as QB 2 in the draft at pick 24 doesn't happen anymore. In the last 10 drafts, QB 2 picked outside of the top 6 twice: Picketts historically bad QB year and Mahomes at 10. 

Three of the last 4 seasons, QB #3 was gone before pick 6 (historically bad Pickett season the outlier). Mocks this season have 3 in the top 3. Some have 4 in the top 10 or higher. 

I have no doubt dumb luck can happen and we could land a franchise guy at 15 (or later) in some random year, but I think we should also acknowledge the fact that the highest probability of us landing a franchise worthy guy comes from being inside of the top 6 -- and THAT is going to cost far more than what the Chiefs and Bills paid for their QBs if we are picking around 20. 

Also, remember for the Bills that they traded their LT for a pick swap from 22 to 12 and also had a second first rounder because the year before they traded with the Chiefs who took Mahomes. 

So I am all for the idea of finding your guy and doing whatever it takes to get him. I am also realistic that based on history that takes 1) incredibly dumb luck, 2) extra draft capital, 3) a bad class w/ a high variance prospect (and a trade), 4) a massive trade into the top 6. 

The biggest BS thing, IMO, is the idea that you NEED to build the team before getting a QB. No you do not. Kyle Shannahan is not a repeatable example. Find the guy you can build your team around for 10-15, maybe more years and build WITH them. 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Blitzburgh said:

I don’t even remember hearing Josiah Scott’s name before.  Hopefully we grab a decent outside and nickel.  There are certainly some decent ones this year in FA.

Theyre grabbing somebody decent in FA…I just don’t know who.

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21 minutes ago, jebrick said:

Indeed.  Best be able to identify a franchise QB.  They are rare animals but having a very good team you can get a mid level talent and go far.  San Fran is a prime example as is the Pre-Ben Steelers

SF is not a good example of this though…

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9 minutes ago, AFF said:

SF is not a good example of this though…

They are an excellent example of building a great team and then getting a QB that can run the system.  Purdy is not an elite QB.  He is on an elite team with elite weapons.  As of yet, he can't put a team on his shoulders.

 

24 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

It's not much of a BS argument when you just gave out 5 examples across a 20 year span. 

Like Aaron Rodgers 19 years ago as QB 2 in the draft at pick 24 doesn't happen anymore. In the last 10 drafts, QB 2 picked outside of the top 6 twice: Picketts historically bad QB year and Mahomes at 10. 

Three of the last 4 seasons, QB #3 was gone before pick 6 (historically bad Pickett season the outlier). Mocks this season have 3 in the top 3. Some have 4 in the top 10 or higher. 

I have no doubt dumb luck can happen and we could land a franchise guy at 15 (or later) in some random year, but I think we should also acknowledge the fact that the highest probability of us landing a franchise worthy guy comes from being inside of the top 6 -- and THAT is going to cost far more than what the Chiefs and Bills paid for their QBs if we are picking around 20. 

Also, remember for the Bills that they traded their LT for a pick swap from 22 to 12 and also had a second first rounder because the year before they traded with the Chiefs who took Mahomes. 

So I am all for the idea of finding your guy and doing whatever it takes to get him. I am also realistic that based on history that takes 1) incredibly dumb luck, 2) extra draft capital, 3) a bad class w/ a high variance prospect (and a trade), 4) a massive trade into the top 6. 

The biggest BS thing, IMO, is the idea that you NEED to build the team before getting a QB. No you do not. Kyle Shannahan is not a repeatable example. Find the guy you can build your team around for 10-15, maybe more years and build WITH them. 

 

 

Bill Cowher did the same thing.  KC did the same thing.  It has been proven over and over it is better to build a team then get a franchise QB via draft/trade/FA.  Crappy teams that get QBs tend to waste those QB's rookie years.  If losing was the way to build a SB winning team the the Browns would be celebrating another championship. 

 

You can root for a big losing season with the hopes that it forces a "management" change.  Noll 1969 then Cowher in 1992 are examples of that happening with the Steelers.  I have zero trust in AR2 will do the right thing.

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28 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

2) extra draft capital,

This is so so underplayed by people with the “move up to get a QB” idea.  For too long our extra draft capital was compensatory picks which don’t do much in this move up case.  

 

31 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

The biggest BS thing, IMO, is the idea that you NEED to build the team before getting a QB. No you do not. Kyle Shannahan is not a repeatable example. Find the guy you can build your team around for 10-15, maybe more years and build WITH them. 

Yes and no.  I think you need enough building blocks to feel like you are a QB away, along with cap space to build around their strengths and weaknesses with them.  I think that’s something KC/Buffalo had at the time they made their moves because in both cases they just made the playoffs and lost with Smith/Taylor at the helm.

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1 minute ago, jebrick said:

They are an excellent example of building a great team and then getting a QB that can run the system.  Purdy is not an elite QB.  He is on an elite team with elite weapons.  As of yet, he can't put a team on his shoulders.

 

So then Trey Lance….

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14 minutes ago, jebrick said:

They are an excellent example of building a great team and then getting a QB that can run the system.  Purdy is not an elite QB.  He is on an elite team with elite weapons.  As of yet, he can't put a team on his shoulders.

 

Bill Cowher did the same thing.  KC did the same thing.  It has been proven over and over it is better to build a team then get a franchise QB via draft/trade/FA.  Crappy teams that get QBs tend to waste those QB's rookie years.  If losing was the way to build a SB winning team the the Browns would be celebrating another championship. 

 

You can root for a big losing season with the hopes that it forces a "management" change.  Noll 1969 then Cowher in 1992 are examples of that happening with the Steelers.  I have zero trust in AR2 will do the right thing.

The 49ers point shows my point…they have everything around it but can’t make it over the hump due to their QB play.

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Its pretty simple....

You CAN find a franchise QB outside the top 5-10, but its rare and difficult to do.

I am okay with building up our team in other areas given the situation we are in, but we have had alot of hollow, meaningless wins over the last few seasons that hurt us more than they helped.

The way this team is built, we likely aren't picking top 10 the next few years outside of being ravaged by injuries.   So we better hope we can find a QB outside the top 10, otherwise the tires will keep spinning.

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