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Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread

MacReady

By MacReady
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Zycho32

Zycho32

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

How much of that was out of necessity?

About the most situational part I can think of was when Cobb was playing the slot. Apart from that, everyone seemed interchangeable enough(outside of when Watson finally went off, but his overall role remained the same). That or I still have sheer multitudes to learn about positional subtleties.

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CWood21

CWood21

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Posted
Just now, Zycho32 said:

About the most situational part I can think of was when Cobb was playing the slot. Apart from that, everyone seemed interchangeable enough(outside of when Watson finally went off, but his overall role remained the same). That or I still have sheer multitudes to learn about positional subtleties.

I mean, the only reason those players played as much as they did was because of injury.  Sammy Watkins played in 9 games before his release.  Christian Watson missed 3 games.  Romeo Doubs missed 4 games.  Randall Cobb missed 4 games.  Allen Lazard was our healthiest WR and he missed 2 games last year.  LIS, if you believe that they're not going to all stay healthy (likely), then that seems a bit overkill.  How many teams are 4 deep at WR with starting-caliber WRs?  I think Cincinnati was the "deepest" team at WR last year, and they were only 3 deep.

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Zycho32

Zycho32

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12 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, the only reason those players played as much as they did was because of injury.  Sammy Watkins played in 9 games before his release.  Christian Watson missed 3 games.  Romeo Doubs missed 4 games.  Randall Cobb missed 4 games.  Allen Lazard was our healthiest WR and he missed 2 games last year.  LIS, if you believe that they're not going to all stay healthy (likely), then that seems a bit overkill.  How many teams are 4 deep at WR with starting-caliber WRs?  I think Cincinnati was the "deepest" team at WR last year, and they were only 3 deep.

When I said rotation, I didn't mean different players were starting every week due to injuries, I mean receivers were both coming and going from the sidelines between plays, including when there were injuries.

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DWhitehurst

DWhitehurst

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Posted (edited)

Question: the Packers might possibly draft two TE's given the cupboard is almost empty other than Davis, but which TE would be your first pick for the Packers?? I'm pretty torn, can't make up my mind.

No doubt, Kincaid is the sexy pick as a "Y", but we also need an inline guy to replace what Mercedes gave the Packers, e.g., Mayer or Washington.

I will admit, despite the unknowns with his floor, I am 'tempted' by Luke Musgrave just in terms of his possible ceiling, measurables, how coordinated he moves for a 6'6 guy. And Mike Wahle showed how he can get low for leveraged inline blocking--that he 'can' do it even if that area is currently a bit unknown. 

As far as we know, Sam LaPorta could end up being better than higher rated guys. 

Just can't decide.

Anyways, whose your favorite?

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Isherwood

Isherwood

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, DWhitehurst said:

Question: the Packers might possibly draft two TE's given the cupboard is almost empty other than Davis, but which TE would be your first pick for the Packers?? I'm pretty torn, can't make up my mind.

No doubt, Kincaid is the sexy pick as a "Y", but we also need an inline guy to replace what Mercedes gave the Packers, e.g., Mayer or Washington.

I will admit, despite the unknowns with his floor, I am 'tempted' by Luke Musgrave just in terms of his possible ceiling, measurables, how coordinated he moves for a 6'6 guy. And Mike Wahle showed how he can get low for leveraged inline blocking--that he 'can' do it even if that area is currently a bit unknown. 

As far as we know, Sam LaPorta could end up being better than higher rated guys. 

Just can't decide.

Anyways, whose your favorite?

I want Washington early and Tucker Kraft later 

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Zycho32

Zycho32

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, DWhitehurst said:

Question: the Packers might possibly draft two TE's given the cupboard is almost empty other than Davis, but which TE would be your first pick for the Packers?? I'm pretty torn, can't make up my mind.

No doubt, Kincaid is the sexy pick as a "Y", but we also need an inline guy to replace what Mercedes gave the Packers, e.g., Mayer or Washington.

I will admit, despite the unknowns with his floor, I am 'tempted' by Luke Musgrave just in terms of his possible ceiling, measurables, how coordinated he moves for a 6'6 guy. And Mike Wahle showed how he can get low for leveraged inline blocking--that he 'can' do it even if that area is currently a bit unknown. 

As far as we know, Sam LaPorta could end up being better than higher rated guys. 

Just can't decide.

Anyways, whose your favorite?

Put up against a wall, I'm guessin' the TE Pick would be Mayer.

The reason has a lot to do with what the post-AR Offense is going to look like, which I feel is going to be more smashmouth and conservative, at least initially. To that end a strong blocker and safety valve would be a better fit. Washington is a far greater blocker and RZ Option, but Mayer's the better of the two between the 20's. Think Todd Heap when looking at him.

If I'm drastically wrong about what the offense will be however, then you probably see Musgrave, but that's probably because Kincaid will already be gone. Either of those two will be big blue chip versions of what we wanted out of Tonyan.

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CWood21

CWood21

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, DWhitehurst said:

Question: the Packers might possibly draft two TE's given the cupboard is almost empty other than Davis, but which TE would be your first pick for the Packers?? I'm pretty torn, can't make up my mind.

No doubt, Kincaid is the sexy pick as a "Y", but we also need an inline guy to replace what Mercedes gave the Packers, e.g., Mayer or Washington.

I will admit, despite the unknowns with his floor, I am 'tempted' by Luke Musgrave just in terms of his possible ceiling, measurables, how coordinated he moves for a 6'6 guy. And Mike Wahle showed how he can get low for leveraged inline blocking--that he 'can' do it even if that area is currently a bit unknown. 

As far as we know, Sam LaPorta could end up being better than higher rated guys. 

Just can't decide.

Anyways, whose your favorite?

Feels like Darnell Washington in the 2nd is pretty much a lock to be a Packer assuming he makes it to one of our SRPs.  Sam LaPorta seems like the backup plan.  Think Kincaid and Mayer go in that 20-38 range.  I could see them gambling on someone like Zach Kuntz or Jahleel Billingsley early on Day 3.

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DWhitehurst

DWhitehurst

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Feels like Darnell Washington in the 2nd is pretty much a lock to be a Packer assuming he makes it to one of our SRPs.  Sam LaPorta seems like the backup plan.  Think Kincaid and Mayer go in that 20-38 range.  I could see them gambling on someone like Zach Kuntz or Jahleel Billingsley early on Day 3.

Yes, Washington would be great, but like you hinted at, does he last till #45?? I'm totally guessing based off Mock Draft Simulators, but I'd think there is a chance that Kincaid, Mayer, Washington, and either Musgrave or LaPorta could all be gone by pick #45. If they hold off on TE till at least pick #45, I could see a LaPorta at #45 and/or a Tucker Kraft at #78 maybe? Whatever the case, it is such a deep TE class that they should be able to get a decent one or two.

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CWood21

CWood21

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Posted
Just now, DWhitehurst said:

Yes, Washington would be great, but does he last till #45?? I'm totally guessing based off Mock Draft Simulators, but I'd think there is a chance that Kincaid, Mayer, Washington, and either Musgrave or LaPorta could all be gone by pick #45. If they hold off on TE till at least pick #45, I could see a LaPorta at #45 and/or a Tucker Kraft at #78 maybe? Whatever the case, it is such a deep TE class that they should be able to get a decent one or two.

I think it's very possible that he's there.  Over the last 8 years, the first TE has gone off the board on average of the 30.5th pick in the NFL draft.  The earliest we've seen one picked was Kyle Pitts who went 4th overall, and the latest was 2015 (Maxx Williams) and 2022 (Trey McBride) who went 55th overall.  My guess is the first TE goes off the board in that 18-26 range, most likely Michael Mayer.  Over that same 8 year period, we've only seen at least 2 TEs go in the top 45 picks during the 2017 draft (5 inside the top 45), 2018 (2 inside the top 45), and 2019 (2 inside the top 45).  My guess is TE2 comes off the board sometime early Day 2, and then we start to see them run off the board in the middle-to-later parts of the second round.

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DWhitehurst

DWhitehurst

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I think it's very possible that he's there.  Over the last 8 years, the first TE has gone off the board on average of the 30.5th pick in the NFL draft.  The earliest we've seen one picked was Kyle Pitts who went 4th overall, and the latest was 2015 (Maxx Williams) and 2022 (Trey McBride) who went 55th overall.  My guess is the first TE goes off the board in that 18-26 range, most likely Michael Mayer.  Over that same 8 year period, we've only seen at least 2 TEs go in the top 45 picks during the 2017 draft (5 inside the top 45), 2018 (2 inside the top 45), and 2019 (2 inside the top 45).  My guess is TE2 comes off the board sometime early Day 2, and then we start to see them run off the board in the middle-to-later parts of the second round.

Sheesh. How did you pull up all that data that quickly?! Magnificent! Yeah, I'm fretting too much over it. Haha

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TheEagle

TheEagle

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Posted

I do not want Washington in round 1 and probably not in early round 2. He's a great blocker, but watching his film I'm not sure he'll ever have 700-800 yards receiving in a season. That's not worth a premium pick to me. I do like the top 7 of Dalton, Mayer, Musgrave, LaPorta, Kraft, Washington, Schoonmaker. Kuntz is intriguing. Several others could be solid backups. Elijah Higgins intrigues me as a possible TE convert.

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Zycho32

Zycho32

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Posted
9 hours ago, TheEagle said:

I do not want Washington in round 1 and probably not in early round 2. He's a great blocker, but watching his film I'm not sure he'll ever have 700-800 yards receiving in a season. That's not worth a premium pick to me. I do like the top 7 of Dalton, Mayer, Musgrave, LaPorta, Kraft, Washington, Schoonmaker. Kuntz is intriguing. Several others could be solid backups. Elijah Higgins intrigues me as a possible TE convert.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FranBu00.htm

Frank's peak from 01-04 is about what you should expect from Washington at his best, though maybe it comes with yardage a little closer to 500. It sure ain't sexy on the stat sheet(which outside of the OT is where everybody seems to rate the success of the drafted) but that's a badly needed weapon.

As for the rest, Higgins is less of a TE convert to me than a possible Lazard replacement- dependent upon a transition to King Henry-style Smashmouth, of course.

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